Biometrika.

v.2 (1902-1903)

The EU-Ukraine Action Plan on Visa Liberalisation: an assessment of Ukraine's readiness. OSW Commentary No. 45, 2011-01-17

The Action Plan on visas adopted during the recent EU-Ukraine summit is a success for Ukraine. It is the first time that Kyiv has succeeded in obtaining a definition of the conditions and criteria whose fulfilment will enable Ukraine to apply for the lifting of EU visas for its citizens. Ukraine's strong point has been its political will; the lifting of this visa regime has been a priority for all Ukrainian governments since 2005. Since Viktor Yanukovych became president, Ukraine has adopted or prepared key legal acts that brought it nearer to European standards in the area of border and migration management. One of Kyiv's strengths is also its relatively well reformed and efficiently managed border service. Moreover, illegal transit migration via Ukraine is decreasing, and fewer Ukrainians are trying to enter or stay in the EU illegally. Also, Kyiv has efficiently implemented the EU-Ukraine readmission agreement. The hardest task for Ukraine will be to meet the EU’s expectations concerning values, the condition of Ukrainian democracy, and the rule of law. Corruption remains the main barrier to Ukraine's development and modernisation; the courts are weak and the judicial system inefficient. The main undertaking of the new migration service that is being formed at the moment will be to create a civil system of registration, monitoring and regulating the stays of foreign nationals. This may prove difficult, as the supervisory authority (the Ministry of the Interior) remains an unreformed, police-type bureaucratic institution. Ukraine is lagging behind countries such as Russia, Belarus and Moldova when it comes to the introduction of biometric documents. Another problem is the lack of an electronic information system on foreign nationals, visas and border crossings which would be accessible to all the relevant services and institutions. For these reasons, the complete abolition of visas seems to be a longterm perspective, especially considering that many EU countries, which themselves are faced with the problem of migrants’ integration, are rather sceptical about the further liberalisation of movement of people with their eastern neighbours. In the immediate future, if Ukraine meets some of the requirements set by the EU, it will be able to seek the extension of the visa facilitations that have been in operation since 2008.

(Figure 2) Distribution of planktonic foraminifera in the upper Paleocene of DSDP Hole 93-605

Good faunal preservation in the upper part of the Planorotatites pseudomenardii Zone at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 605, northwestern Atlantic, allows a biometric analysis of the upper Paleocene planktonic foraminiferal species Planorotatites pseudomenardii (Belli), a keeled species that probably developed from a middle Paleocene unkeeled Planorotalites form. Multivariate analysis shows a consistent separation of all Planorotatites specimens into two groups, which are differentiated by the presence or absence of a complete keel; other variables are only of minor importance. The keeled group coincides with P. pseudomenardii. We recognize only one unkeeled species, Planorotalites chapmani (Parr), with Planorotalites ehrenbergi (Bolli), Planorotalites imitata (Subbotina), Planorotalites planoconica (Subbotina), Planorotalites troelseni (Loeblich and Tappan), and Planorotalites hausbergensis (Gohrbrandt) as junior synonyms. P. chapmani ranges from the middle Paleocene to at least the top of the upper Paleocene. The morphology of P. pseudomenardii does not change significantly, and although the frequency of Planorotalites is variable, the proportion of P. pseudomenardii to all Planorotalites varies only slightly around 65% in the upper two-thirds of its range at Site 605. However, in the top 1.5 m of its range the proportion of P. pseudomenardii decreases; in the same section, all Planorotalites specimens show a reduction in the size of their tests, suggesting that a temporary change in environmental conditions led to the exit of P. pseudomenardii\ in Magnetozone C24R at Site 605-apparently higher than expected from current standard zonations. Unkeeled Planorotalites, in contrast to R. pseudomenardii, persisted and regained normal size. The entry of P. pseudomenardii at Site 605 cannot be described in the same detail because of low frequencies of Planorotalites specimens and an erratic distribution of P. pseudomenardii in the lower part of its range. Many of the washed residues of the samples from these sediments are dominated by radiolarians, and the poorly preserved foraminiferal faunas may have abundant benthics, indicating carbonate dissolution. The initially low frequencies of P pseudomenardii relative to the unkeeled Planorotalites show a strong negative correlation with the total amount of radiolarians per sample and could be the result of preferential preservation, as well as of the same environmental conditions that caused the abundance of radiolarians.

Tracts for computers.

Mode of access: Internet.

Tables for statisticians and biometricians,

Part I is first edition; pt. II, first edition.

Cling film as a barrier against CJD in corneal contact A-scan ultrasonography

Purpose: To determine the validity of covering a corneal contact transducer probe with cling film as protection against the transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). Methods: The anterior chamber depth, lens thickness and vitreous chamber depth of the right eyes of 10 subjects was recorded, under cycloplegia, with and without cling film covering over the transducer probe of a Storz Omega Compu-scan Biometric Ruler. Measurements were repeated on two occasions. Results: Cling film covering did not influence bias or repeatability. Although the 95% limits of agreement between measurements made with and without cling film covering tended to exceed the intrasessional repeatability, they did not exceed the intersessional repeatability of measurements taken without cling film. Conclusions: The results support the use of cling film as a disposable covering for corneal contact A-scan ultrasonography to avoid the risk of spreading CJD from one subject to another. © 2003 The College of Optometrists.

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

A new optical low coherence reflectometry device for ocular biometry in cataract patients

Background: A new commercially available optical low coherence reflectometry device (Lenstar, Haag-Streit or Allegro Biograph, Wavelight) provides high-resolution non-contact measurements of ocular biometry. The study evaluates the validity and repeatability of these measurements compared with current clinical instrumentation. Method: Measurements were taken with the LenStar and IOLMaster on 112 patients aged 41–96 years listed for cataract surgery. A subgroup of 21 patients also had A-scan applanation ultrasonography (OcuScan) performed. Intersession repeatability of the LenStar measurements was assessed on 32 patients Results: LenStar measurements of white-to-white were similar to the IOLMaster (average difference 0.06 (SD 0.03) D; p?=?0.305); corneal curvature measurements were similar to the IOLMaster (average difference -0.04 (0.20) D; p?=?0.240); anterior chamber depth measurements were significantly longer than the IOLMaster (by 0.10 (0.40) mm) and ultrasound (by 0.32 (0.62) mm; p<0.001); crystalline lens thickness measurements were similar to ultrasound (difference 0.16 (0.83) mm, p?=?0.382); axial length measurements were significantly longer than the IOLMaster (by 0.01 (0.02) mm) but shorter than ultrasound (by 0.14 (0.15) mm; p<0.001). The LensStar was unable to take measurements due to dense media opacities in a similar number of patients to the IOLMaster (9–10%). The LenStar biometric measurements were found to be highly repeatable (variability =2% of average value). Conclusions: Although there were some statistical differences between ocular biometry measurements between the LenStar and current clinical instruments, they were not clinically significant. LenStar measurements were highly repeatable and the instrument easy to use.

Three-dimensional modeling of the human eye based on magnetic resonance imaging

PURPOSE. A methodology for noninvasively characterizing the three-dimensional (3-D) shape of the complete human eye is not currently available for research into ocular diseases that have a structural substrate, such as myopia. A novel application of a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) acquisition and analysis technique is presented that, for the first time, allows the 3-D shape of the eye to be investigated fully. METHODS. The technique involves the acquisition of a T2-weighted MRI, which is optimized to reveal the fluid-filled chambers of the eye. Automatic segmentation and meshing algorithms generate a 3-D surface model, which can be shaded with morphologic parameters such as distance from the posterior corneal pole and deviation from sphericity. Full details of the method are illustrated with data from 14 eyes of seven individuals. The spatial accuracy of the calculated models is demonstrated by comparing the MRI-derived axial lengths with values measured in the same eyes using interferometry. RESULTS. The color-coded eye models showed substantial variation in the absolute size of the 14 eyes. Variations in the sphericity of the eyes were also evident, with some appearing approximately spherical whereas others were clearly oblate and one was slightly prolate. Nasal-temporal asymmetries were noted in some subjects. CONCLUSIONS. The MRI acquisition and analysis technique allows a novel way of examining 3-D ocular shape. The ability to stratify and analyze eye shape, ocular volume, and sphericity will further extend the understanding of which specific biometric parameters predispose emmetropic children subsequently to develop myopia. Copyright © Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology.

Ametropia and ocular biometry in a UK university student population

Purpose. The prevalence of myopia is known to vary with age, ethnicity, level of education, and socioeconomic status, with a high prevalence reported in university students and in people from East Asian countries. This study determines the prevalence of ametropia in a mixed ethnicity U.K. university student population and compares associated ocular biometric measures. Methods. Refractive error and related ocular component data were collected on 373 first-year U.K. undergraduate students (mean age = 19.55 years ± 2.99, range = 17-30 years) at the start of the academic year at Aston University, Birmingham, and the University of Bradford, West Yorkshire. The ethnic variation of the students was as follows: white 38.9%, British Asian 58.2%, Chinese 2.1%, and black 0.8%. Noncycloplegic refractive error was measured with an infrared open-field autorefractor, the Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001 (Shin Nippon, Ryusyo Industrial Co. Ltd, Osaka, Japan). Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent (MSE) less than or equal to -0.50 D. Hyperopia was defined as an MSE greater than or equal to +0.50 D. Axial length, corneal curvature, and anterior chamber depth were measured using the Zeiss IOLMaster (Carl Zeiss, Jena, GmBH). Results. The analysis was carried out only for white and British Asian groups. The overall distribution of refractive error exhibited leptokurtosis, and prevalence levels were similar for white and British Asian (the predominant ethnic group) students across each ametropic group: myopia (50% vs. 53.4%), hyperopia (18.8% vs. 17.3%), and emmetropia (31.2% vs. 29.3%). There were no significant differences in the distribution of ametropia and biometric components between white and British Asian samples. Conclusion. The absence of a significant difference in refractive error and ocular components between white and British Asian students exposed to the same educational system is of interest. However, it is clear that a further study incorporating formal epidemiologic methods of analysis is required to address adequately the recent proposal that juvenile myopia develops principally from myopiagenic environments and is relatively independent of ethnicity.

Vergence analysis reveals the influence of axial distances on accommodation with age and axial ametropia

Despite numerous investigations, the aetiology and mechanism of accommodation and presbyopia remains equivocal. Using Gaussian first-order ray tracing calculations, we examine the contribution that ocular axial distances make to the accommodation response. Further, the influence of age and ametropia are also considered. The data show that all changes in axial distances during accommodation reduce the accommodation response, with the reduction in anterior chamber depth contributing most to this overall attenuation. Although the total power loss due to the changes in axial distances remained constant with increasing age, hyperopes exhibited less accommodation than myopes. The study, therefore, enhances our understanding of biometric accommodative changes and demonstrates the utility of vergence analysis in the assessment of accommodation.

An optical study of human ocular dimensions

Many workers have studied the ocular components which occur in eyes exhibiting differing amounts of central refractive error but few have ever considered the additional information that could be derived from a study of peripheral refraction. Before now, peripheral refraction has either been measured in real eyes or has otherwise been modelled in schematic eyes of varying levels of sophistication. Several differences occur between measured and modelled results which, if accounted for, could give rise to more information regarding the nature of the optical and retinal surfaces and their asymmetries. Measurements of ocular components and peripheral refraction, however, have never been made in the same sample of eyes. In this study, ocular component and peripheral refractive measurements were made in a sample of young near-emmetropic, myopic and hyperopic eyes. The data for each refractive group was averaged. A computer program was written to construct spherical surfaced schematic eyes from this data. More sophisticated eye models were developed making use of linear algebraic ray tracing program. This method allowed rays to be traced through toroidal aspheric surfaces which were translated or rotated with respect to each other. For simplicity, the gradient index optical nature of the crystalline lens was neglected. Various alterations were made in these eye models to reproduce the measured peripheral refractive patterns. Excellent agreement was found between the modelled and measured peripheral refractive values over the central 70o of the visual field. This implied that the additional biometric features incorporated in each eye model were representative of those which were present in the measured eyes. As some of these features are not otherwise obtainable using in vivo techniques, it is proposed that the variation of refraction in the periphery offers a very useful optical method for studying human ocular component dimensions.

Measurement of ocular component contributions to residual astigmatism in adult human eyes

The aim of this study was to determine whether an ophthalmophakometric technique could offer a feasible means of investigating ocular component contributions to residual astigmatism in human eyes. Current opinion was gathered on the prevalence, magnitude and source of residual astigmatism. It emerged that a comprehensive evaluation of the astigmatic contributions of the eye's internal ocular surfaces and their respective axial separations (effectivity) had not been carried out to date. An ophthalmophakometric technique was developed to measure astigmatism arising from the internal ocular components. Procedures included the measurement of refractive error (infra-red autorefractometry), anterior corneal surface power (computerised video keratography), axial distances (A-scan ultrasonography) and the powers of the posterior corneal surface in addition to both surfaces of the crystalline lens (multi-meridional still flash ophthalmophakometry). Computing schemes were developed to yield the required biometric data. These included (1) calculation of crystalline lens surface powers in the absence of Purkinje images arising from its anterior surface, (2) application of meridional analysis to derive spherocylindrical surface powers from notional powers calculated along four pre-selected meridians, (3) application of astigmatic decomposition and vergence analysis to calculate contributions to residual astigmatism of ocular components with obliquely related cylinder axes, (4) calculation of the effect of random experimental errors on the calculated ocular component data. A complete set of biometric measurements were taken from both eyes of 66 undergraduate students. Effectivity due to corneal thickness made the smallest cylinder power contribution (up to 0.25DC) to residual astigmatism followed by contributions of the anterior chamber depth (up to 0.50DC) and crystalline lens thickness (up to 1.00DC). In each case astigmatic contributions were predominantly direct. More astigmatism arose from the posterior corneal surface (up to 1.00DC) and both crystalline lens surfaces (up to 2.50DC). The astigmatic contributions of the posterior corneal and lens surfaces were found to be predominantly inverse whilst direct astigmatism arose from the anterior lens surface. Very similar results were found for right versus left eyes and males versus females. Repeatability was assessed on 20 individuals. The ophthalmophakometric method was found to be prone to considerable accumulated experimental errors. However, these errors are random in nature so that group averaged data were found to be reasonably repeatable. A further confirmatory study was carried out on 10 individuals which demonstrated that biometric measurements made with and without cycloplegia did not differ significantly.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

Accommodation and intraocular pressure

The relationship between accommodation and intraocular pressure (lOP) has not been addressed as a research question for over 20 years, when measurement of both of these parameters was less advanced than today. Hence the central aim of this thesis was to evaluate the effects of accommodation on lOP. The instrument of choice throughout this thesis was the Pulsair EasyEye non-contact tonometer (NCT) due principally to its slim-line design which allowed the measurement of lOP in one eye and simultaneous stimulation of accommodation in the other eye. A second reason for using the Pulsair EasyEye NCT was that through collaboration with the manufacturers (Keeler, UK) the instrument's operational technology was made accessible. Hence, the principle components underpinning non-contact lOP measures of 0.1mmHg resolution (an order of magnitude greater than other methods) were made available. The relationship between the pressure-output and corneal response has been termed the pressure-response relationship, aspects of which have been shown to be related to ocular biometric parameters. Further, analysis of the components of the pressure-response relationship together with high-speed photography of the cornea during tonometry has enhanced our understanding of the derivation of an lOP measure with the Pulsair EasyEye NCT. The NCT samples the corneal response to the pressure pulse over a 19 ms cycle photoelectronically, but computes the subject's lOP using the data collected in the first 2.34 ms. The relatively instantaneous nature of the lOP measurement renders the measures susceptible to variations in the steady-state lOP caused by the respiratory and cardiac cycles. As such, the variance associated with these cycles was minimised by synchronising the lOP measures with the cardiac trace and maintaining a constant pace respiratory cycle at 15 breathes/minute. It is apparent that synchronising the lOP measures with the peak, middle or trough of the cardiac trace significantly reduced the spread of consecutive measures. Of the 3 locations investigated, synchronisation with the middle location demonstrated the least variance (coeflicient of variation = 9.1%) and a strong correlation (r = 0.90, p = <0.001) with lOP values obtained with Goldmann contact tonometry (n = 50). Accordingly lOP measures synchronised with the middle location of the cardiac cycle were taken in the RE while the LE fixated low (L; zero D), intermediate (I; 1.50 D) and high (H; 4 D) accommodation targets, Quasi-continuous measures of accommodation responses were obtained during the lOP measurement period using the portable infrared Grand Seiko FR-5000 autorefractor. The lOP reduced between L and I accommodative levels by approximately 0.61 mmHg (p <0.00 I). No significant reduction in IOP between L and H accommodation levels was elicited (p = 0.65) (n = 40). The relationship between accommodation and lOP was characterised by substantial inter-subject variations. Myopes demonstrated a tendency to show a reduction in IOP with accommodation which was significant only with I accommodation levels when measured with the NCT (r = 0.50, p = 0.01). However, the relationship between myopia and lOP change with accommodation reached significance for both I (r = 0.61, p= 0.003) and H (r = 0.531, p= 0.0 1) accommodation levels when measured with the Ocular blood Flow Analyser (OBFA). Investigation of the effects of accommodation on the parameters measured by the OBFA demonstrated that with H accommodation levels the pulse amplitude (PA) and pulse rate (PR) responses differed between myopes and emmetropes (PA: p = 0.03; PR: p = 0.004). As thc axial length increased there was a tendency for the pulsatile ocular blood flow (POBF) to reduce with accommodation, which was significant only with H accommodation levels (r = 0.38, p = 0.02). It is proposed that emmetropes arc able to regulate the POBF responses to changes in ocular perfusion pressure caused by changes in lOP with I (r = 0.77, p <0.001) and H (r = 0.73, p = 0.001) accommodation levels. However, thc relationship between lOP and POBF changes in the myopes was not correlated for both I (r = 0.33, p = 0.20) and H (r = 0.05, p = 0.85) accommodation levels. The thesis presents new data on the relationships between accommodation, lOP and parameters of the OBFA,: and provides evidence for possible lOP and choroidal blood flow regulatory mechanisms. Further the data highlight possible deficits in the vascular regulation of the myopic eye during accommodation, which may play a putative role in the aetiology of myopia development.