Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Effect of age related macular degeneration on the Eger macular stressometer photostress recovery time

Aim: To assess the repeatability of Eger macular stressometer (EMS) measures of photostress recovery and determine their association with other measures of visual function. Methods: EMS photostress recovery time was measured in 90 patients with bilateral exudative age related macular degeneration (AMD), 19 with bilateral atrophic AMD and 47 with both forms of the condition (mean age 79 (SD 13) years). Measurements were made on two occasions separated by 1 year. Intrasession repeatability was assessed by repeating the measures after a 10 minute recovery period at the first visit. Distance visual acuity was measured with a logMAR chart, near visual acuity with a MNRead chart at 25 cm, contrast sensitivity with a Pelli-Robson chart, and the presence of central visual disturbance assessed with an Amsler grid. A questionnaire was used to assess self reported difficulties with glare recovery. Results: The average EMS recovery time was 11.0 (SD 8.9) seconds, decreasing by 1.6 (5.2) seconds on repeated measurement (p<0.05). EMS photostress recovery was not correlated with visual function measures or subjective difficulties with lights (p>0.05). EMS photostress recovery time did not predict those whose vision decreased over the following year compared with those among whom it remained stable. Conclusions: The EMS test is not a useful tool in determining the severity or progression of AMD.

Are pathological lesions in neurodegenerative disorders the cause or the effect of the degeneration?

Pathological lesions in the form of extracellular protein deposits, intracellular inclusions and changes in cell morphology occur in the brain in the majority of neurodegenerative disorders. Studies of the presence, distribution, and molecular determinants of these lesions are often used to define individual disorders and to establish the mechanisms of lesion pathogenesis. In most disorders, however, the relationship between the appearance of a lesion and the underlying disease process is unclear. Two hypotheses are proposed which could explain this relationship: (i) lesions are the direct cause of the observed neurodegeneration ('causal' hypothesis); and (ii) lesions are a reaction to neurodegeneration ('reaction' hypothesis). These hypotheses are considered in relation to studies of the morphology and molecular determinants of lesions, the effects of gene mutations, degeneration induced by head injury, the effects of experimentally induced brain lesions, transgenic studies and the degeneration of anatomical pathways. The balance of evidence suggests that in many disorders, the appearance of the pathological lesions is a reaction to degenerative processes rather than being their cause. Such a conclusion has implications both for the classification of neurodegenerative disorders and for studies of disease pathogenesis.

Evaluating EU regional policy

This article presents a challenge to the ways in which EU regional policy has been evaluated in the past. Given the complexity of the 'policy framework' and its objectives, it is argued that existing evaluation methodologies are not only inappropriate but create a real risk of misleading policy-makers in their search for identifying which programmes and initiatives are the most effective in tackling the scale of regional disparity that exists across the European Union. For example, the search for an 'average effect' of intervention, whether in terms of jobs created or GVA generated, does not adequately recognise the context within which policy operates. The article argues that only by attempting to adopt a realist evaluation framework can the discourse on effective regional policy be advanced. Examples are provided from a body of work on the evaluation of business support interventions in the UK as well as a broader study of the way in which regulations impacts upon firm performance and growth. This methodological approach provides an opportunity for the evaluator to identify the causal mechanisms which connect the range of policy interventions and their outcomes. In brief, it has greater potential to inform the policy-maker as to what works and, more importantly, in what contexts.

Effect of light filters on reading speed in normal and low vision due to age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To investigate the effects of light filters on reading speed in normal and low vision due to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: Reading speed was determined for 12 subjects with normal vision and 12 subjects with non-exudative AMD using stationary lowercase nonsensical print in Times Roman font and four light filters; a yellow Corning Photochromic Filter (CPF) 450, a grey neural density (ND) filter, an individual filter obtained using the Intuitive Colorimeter® and a clear filter. Results: There was no statistically significant light filter effect on reading speed for the normal subjects. The AMD group demonstrated a statistically significant 5% average improvement in reading speed with the CPF450 compared with the other filters although some AMD subjects had improvements of 10-15%. Conclusions: Light filters obtained using the Intuitive Colorimeter® performed poorly when compared with the CPF450, ND and clear filters for both the study groups. For the AMD group, average reading speed was statistically greater with the CPF450 than the other filters, however it is questionable whether the improvement (5%) would be clinically significant. As some of the subjects with AMD had greater improvements with the CPF450 we advocate clinical assessment of light filters using existing protocols on an individual basis. © 2004 The College of Optometrists.

The effect of PEO length on the self-assembly of poly(ethylene oxide)−tetrapeptide conjugates prepared by “click” chemistry

Two series of poly(ethylene oxide)-tetrapeptide conjugates have been prepared using a “Click” reaction between an alkyne-modified tetra(phenylalanine) or tetra(valine) and various azide-terminated poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) oligomers. Three different PEO precursors were used to prepare these conjugates, with number-average molecular weights of 350, 1200, and 1800 Da. Assembly of mPEO-F4-OEt and mPEO-V4-OEt conjugates was achieved by dialysis of a THF solution of the conjugate against water or by direct aqueous rehydration of a thin film. The PEO length has a profound effect on the outcome of the self-assembly, with the F4 conjugates giving rise to nanotubes, fibers, and wormlike micelles, respectively, as the length of the PEO block is increased. For the V4 series, the propensity to form ß-sheets dominates, and hence, the self-assembled structures are reminiscent of those formed by peptides alone, even at the longer PEO lengths. Thus, this systematic study demonstrates that the self-assembly of PEO-peptides depends on both the nature of the peptides and the relative PEO block length.

An empirical investigation of the effect of rights issue announcements on share returns and the determinants of abnormal returns on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

This thesis examines the effect of rights issue announcements on stock prices by companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1987 to 1996. The emphasis is to report whether the KLSE is semi strongly efficient with respect to the announcement of rights issues and to check whether the implications of corporate finance theories on the effect of an event can be supported in the context of an emerging market. Once the effect is established, potential determinants of abnormal returns identified by previous empirical work and corporate financial theory are analysed. By examining 70 companies making clean rights issue announcements, this thesis will hopefully shed light on some important issues in long term corporate financing. Event study analysis is used to check on the efficiency of the Malaysian stock market; while cross-sectional regression analysis is executed to identify possible explanators of the rights issue announcements' effect. To ensure the results presented are not contaminated, econometric and statistical issues raised in both analyses have been taken into account. Given the small amount of empirical research conducted in this part of the world, the results of this study will hopefully be of use to investors, security analysts, corporate financial managements, regulators and policy makers as well as those who are interested in capital market based research of an emerging market. It is found that the Malaysian stock market is not semi strongly efficient since there exists a persistent non-zero abnormal return. This finding is not consistent with the hypothesis that security returns adjust rapidly to reflect new information. It may be possible that the result is influenced by the sample, consisting mainly of below average size companies which tend to be thinly traded. Nevertheless, these issues have been addressed. Another important issue which has emerged from the study is that there is some evidence to suggest that insider trading activity existed in this market. In addition to these findings, when the rights issue announcements' effect is compared to the implications of corporate finance theories in predicting the sign of abnormal returns, the signalling model, asymmetric information model, perfect substitution hypothesis and Scholes' information hypothesis cannot be supported.

Using organoclay to promote morphology refinement and co-continuity in high-density polyethylene/polyamide 6 blends - Effect of filler content and polymer matrix composition

We investigate the gradual changes of the microstructure of two blends of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyamide 6 (PA6) at opposite composition filled with increasing amounts of an organomodified clay. The filler locates preferentially inside the polyamide phase, bringing about radical alterations in the micron-scale arrangement of the polymer phases. When the host polyamide represents the major constituent, a sudden reduction of the average sizes of the polyethylene droplets was observed upon addition of even low amounts of organoclay. A morphology refinement was also noticed at low filler contents when the particles distributes inside the minor phase. In this case, however, keep increasing the organoclay content eventually results in a high degree of PA6 phase continuity. Rheological analyses reveal that the filler loading at which the polyamide assembles in a continuous network corresponds to the critical threshold for its rheological transition from a liquid- to a gel-like behaviour, which is indicative of the structuring of the filler inside the host PA6. On the basis of this finding, a schematic mechanism is proposed in which the role of the filler in driving the space arrangement of the polymer phases is discussed. Finally, we show that the synergism between the reinforcing action of the filler and its ability to affect the blend microstructure can be exploited in order to enhance relevant technological properties of the materials, such as their high temperature structural integrity.

The effect of load on agent-based algorithms for distributed task allocation

Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects and by markets, are applied to a constrained problem of distributed task allocation. The efficiency (average number of tasks performed), the flexibility (ability to react to changes in the environment), and the sensitivity to load (ability to cope with differing demands) are investigated in both static and dynamic environments. A hybrid algorithm combining both approaches, is shown to exhibit improved efficiency and robustness. We employ nature inspired particle swarm optimisation to obtain optimised parameters for all algorithms in a range of representative environments. Although results are obtained for large population sizes to avoid finite size effects, the influence of population size on the performance is also analysed. From a theoretical point of view, we analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.

Effect of target distance on accommodative amplitude measured using the minus lens technique

Background: The aim was to investigate the effect on the measured amplitude of accommodation and repeatability of using the minus lens technique with the target at distance or near. Methods: Forty-three students (average age: 21.17 ± 1.50 years, 35 female) had their amplitude of accommodation measured with minus lenses on top of their distance correction in a trial frame with the target at far (6.0m) or near (0.4m). The minus lens power was gradually added with steps of 0.25D. Measurements were taken on two occasions at each distance, which were separated by a time interval of at least 24 hours. Results: The measured amplitude at six metres was significantly lower than that with the target at 40cm, by 1.56 ± 1.17D (p < 0.001) and this varied between individuals (r = 0.716, intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.439). With either target distance, repeated measurement was highly correlated (r > 0.9) but the agreement was better at 6.0m (±0.74D) than at 40cm (± 0.92D). Conclusion: The measurements of the amplitude of accommodation with the minus lens technique using targets at far or near are not comparable and the difference between the target distances may provide clinically relevant information. © 2013 Optometrists Association Australia.

Phenotypic effect of mutations in evolving populations of RNA molecules

Background. The secondary structure of folded RNA sequences is a good model to map phenotype onto genotype, as represented by the RNA sequence. Computational studies of the evolution of ensembles of RNA molecules towards target secondary structures yield valuable clues to the mechanisms behind adaptation of complex populations. The relationship between the space of sequences and structures, the organization of RNA ensembles at mutation-selection equilibrium, the time of adaptation as a function of the population parameters, the presence of collective effects in quasispecies, or the optimal mutation rates to promote adaptation all are issues that can be explored within this framework. Results. We investigate the effect of microscopic mutations on the phenotype of RNA molecules during their in silico evolution and adaptation. We calculate the distribution of the effects of mutations on fitness, the relative fractions of beneficial and deleterious mutations and the corresponding selection coefficients for populations evolving under different mutation rates. Three different situations are explored: the mutation-selection equilibrium (optimized population) in three different fitness landscapes, the dynamics during adaptation towards a goal structure (adapting population), and the behavior under periodic population bottlenecks (perturbed population). Conclusions. The ratio between the number of beneficial and deleterious mutations experienced by a population of RNA sequences increases with the value of the mutation rate µ at which evolution proceeds. In contrast, the selective value of mutations remains almost constant, independent of µ, indicating that adaptation occurs through an increase in the amount of beneficial mutations, with little variations in the average effect they have on fitness. Statistical analyses of the distribution of fitness effects reveal that small effects, either beneficial or deleterious, are well described by a Pareto distribution. These results are robust under changes in the fitness landscape, remarkably when, in addition to selecting a target secondary structure, specific subsequences or low-energy folds are required. A population perturbed by bottlenecks behaves similarly to an adapting population, struggling to return to the optimized state. Whether it can survive in the long run or whether it goes extinct depends critically on the length of the time interval between bottlenecks. © 2010 Stich et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The effect of relative distance enlargement on visual acuity in the visually impaired

Background: Prescribing magnification is typically based on distance or near visual acuity. this presumes a constant minimum angle of visual resolution with working distance and therefore enlargement of an object moved to a shorter working distance (relative distance enlargement). this study examines this premise in a visually impaired population. methods: distance letter visual acuity was measured prospectively for 380 low vision patients (distance visual acuity between 0.3 and 2.1 logmar) over the age of 57 years, along with near word visual acuity at an appropriate distance for near lens additions from +4 d to +20 D. demographic information, the disease causing low vision, contrast sensitivity, visual field and psychological status were also recorded. results: distance letter acuity was significantly related to (r = 0.84) but on average 0.1 ± 0.2 logmar better (1 ± 2 lines on a logmar chart) than near word acuity at 25 cm with a +4 d lens addition. in 39. 8 per cent of patients, near word acuity was more than 0.1 logmar worse than distance letter acuity. in 11.0 per cent of subjects, near visual acuity was more than 0.1 logmar better than distance letter acuity. the group with near word acuity worse than distance letter acuity also had lower contrast sensitivity. the group with near word acuity better than distance letter acuity was less likely to have age-Related macular degeneration. smaller print size could be read by reducing working distance (achieved by using higher near lens additions) in 86. 1 per cent, although not by as much as predicted by geometric progression in 14. 5 per cent. discussion: although distance letter and near word acuity are highly related, they are on average 1 logmar line different and this varies significantly between individuals. near word acuity did not increase linearly with relative distance enlargement in approximately one in seven visually impaired, suggesting that the measurement of visual resolution over a range of working distances will assist appropriate prescribing of magnification aids.

Lack of effect of aspirin in primary CV prevention in type 2 diabetic patients with nephropathy:results from 8 years follow-up of NID-2 study

The risk-to-benefit ratio for the use of low dose of aspirin in primary cardiovascular (CV) prevention in patients with diabetes mellitus remains to be clarified. We assessed the effect of aspirin on risk of CV events in type 2 diabetic patients with nephropathy, in order to verify the usefulness of Guidelines in clinical practice. We carried out a prospective multicentric study in 564 patients with type 2 diabetic nephropathy free of CV disease attending outpatient diabetes clinics. A total of 242 patients received antiplatelet treatment with aspirin 100 mg/day (group A), and 322 were not treated with antiplatelet drugs (group B). Primary end point was the occurrence of total major adverse cardio-vascular events (MACE). Secondary end points were the relative occurrence of fatal MACE. The average follow-up was 8 years. Total MACE occurred in 49 patients from group A and in 52 patients from group B. Fatal MACE occurred in 22 patients from group A and in 20 from group B; nonfatal MACE occurred in 27 patients from group A and in 32 patients from group B. Kaplan-Meier analysis did not show a statistically significant difference of cumulative MACE between the two groups. A not statistically significant difference in the incidence of both fatal (p = 0.225) and nonfatal CV events (p = 0.573) between the two groups was observed. These results were confirmed after adjustment for confounders (HR for MACE 1.11, 95 % CI 0.91-1.35). These findings suggest that low dose of aspirin is ineffective in primary prevention for patients with nephropathy. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Italia.

The effect of ocular nutritional supplements on macular pigment optical density

This thesis describes the investigation of the effects of ocular supplements with different levels of nutrients on the macular pigment optical density (MPOD) in participants with healthy eyes. Abstract A review of the literature highlighted that ocular supplements are produced in various combinations of nutrients and concentrations. The ideal concentrations of nutrients such as lutein (L) have not been established. It was unclear whether different stages of eye disease require different concentrations of key nutrients, leading to the design of this study. The primary aim was to determine the effects of ocular supplements with different concentrations of nutrients on the MPOD of healthy participants. The secondary aim was to determine L and zeaxanthin (Z) intake at the start and end of the study through completion of food diaries. The primary study was split into two experiments. Experiment 1 was an exploratory study to determine sample size and experiment 2 the main study. Statistical power was calculated and a sample size of 38 was specified. Block stratification for age, gender and smoking habit was applied and from 101 volunteers 42 completed the study, 31 with both sets of food diaries. Four confounders were accounted for in the design of the study; gender, smoking habit, age and diet. Further factors that could affect comparability of results between studies were identified during the study and were not monitored; ethnicity, gastro-intestinal health, alcohol intake, body mass index and genetics. Comparisons were made between the sample population and the Sheffield general population according to recent demographic results in the public domain. Food diaries were analysed and shown to have no statistical difference when comparing baseline to final results. The average L and Z intake for the 31 participants who returned both sets of food diaries was initially 1.96mg and 1.51mg for the final food diaries. The effect of the two ocular supplements with different levels of xanthophyll (6mg lutein/zeaxanthin and 10mg lutein only) on MPOD was not significantly different over a four-month period.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity of charge carrier mobility on current-voltage characteristics in organic field-effect transistors

A semi-quantitative model is put forward elucidating the role of spatial inhomogeneity of charge carrier mobility in organic field-effect transistors. The model, based on electrostatic arguments, allows estimating the effective thickness of the conducting channel and its changes in function of source-drain and gate voltages. Local mobility gradients in the direction perpendicular to the insulator/semiconductor interface translate into voltage dependences of the average carrier mobility in the channel, resulting in positive or negative deviations of current-voltage characteristics from their expected shapes. The proposed effect supplements those described in the literature, i.e., density-dependent mobility of charge carriers, short-channel effects, and contribution of contact resistance.