Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation

The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.

Olfactory perception threshold assessment of volatile acidity in Madeira wines

Madeira wine is a fortified wine with impact in the Madeira Island’s economy. Similarly to other wines, its acidity should be well controlled in order to ensure Madeira wine quality, mostly the volatile acidity. Due to Madeira wine complex flavour, it is crucial to get a better knowledge about the volatile acidity impact in its features, namely determine the perception limit of acetic acid and ethyl acetate, as both are the main contributors for volatile acidity. Firstly, the olfactory perception threshold of volatile acidity was assessed by a trained and an untrained panel, using 5 and 10 years-old Sercial and Malvasia wines. Moreover, the current work also presents the evolution of organic acids, acetic acid and ethyl acetate during 540 days of ageing of Madeira wines (Malvasia, Bual, Verdelho and Sercial), comparing the same wines aged by both traditional ageing processes: canteiro and estufagem. Other wine samples, aged in wood casks (canteiro) for at least 5 years, were also evaluated. HS-SPME followed by GC-MS analysis was used to determine ethyl acetate concentration and IEC-HPLC-DAD was used for the organic acids determination, including acetic acid. The results indicated that acetic acid and ethyl acetate olfactory perception threshold depends essentially on wine’s age. Concerning acetic acid, the untrained panel was in average 5.45 g/L (5 years-old) and 6.22 g/L (10 years-old). Training the expert panel to recognize acetic acid odour, the values decreased for 1.44 g/L (5 years-old) and 1.87 g/L (10 years-old), but still remained higher than the established volatile acidity legal limits. Ethyl acetate threshold was similar for both panels (in average 327.97 mg/L). Both compounds tend to increase exponentially with age, being more evident in sweet wines. Organic acids in young Madeira wines depend mostly on the nature of grape varieties, but this difference is minimized with wine ageing.

Anaerobic bio-digestion of concentrate obtained in the process of ultra filtration of effluents from tilapia processing unit

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the efficiency of the process of biodigestion of the protein concentrate resulting from the ultrafiltration of the effluent from a slaughterhouse freezer of Nile tilapia. Bench digesters were used with excrements and water (control) in comparison with a mixture of cattle manure and effluent from the stages of filleting and bleeding of tilapias. The effluent obtained in the continuous process (bleeding + filleting) was the one with highest accumulated population from the 37th day, as well as greatest daily production. Gases composition did not differ between the protein concentrates, but the gas obtained with the use of the effluent from the filleting stage presented highest methane gas average (78.05%) in comparison with those obtained in the bleeding stage (69.95%) and in the continuous process (70.02%) or by the control method (68.59%).

Aminophylline affects glycemia control and increases anaerobic glycolysis in horses during incremental exercise

A study was conducted on the effects of acute administration of aminophylline on physiological variables in purebred Arabian horses submitted to incremental exercise test. Twelve horses were submitted to two physical tests separated by a 10-day interval in a crossover study. These horses were divided into two groups: control (C, n = 12) and aminophylline (AM, n = 12). The drug at 10 mg/kg body weight or saline was given intravenously, 30 minutes before the incremental exercise test. The treadmill exercise test consisted of an initial warmup followed by gradually increasing physical exigency. Blood samples were assayed for lactic acid, glucose, and insulin. Maximal lactic acidemia was greater (P = .0238) in the AM group. Both V-2 and V-4 (velocities at which lactate concentrations were 2 and 4 mmol/ L, respectively) were reduced in the AM group by 15.85% (P = .0402) and 17.76% (P = .0 109), respectively. At rest as well as at 4 minutes, insulinemia was greater in the AM group (P = .0417 and .0393), Glycemia group at times 8 was statistically lower in the Al (P = .0138) and 10 minutes (P = .0432). Use of ammophylline in horses during incremental exercise does not seem to be beneficial, because this drug has a tendency to cause hypoglycemia and to increase dependence on anaerobic glucose metabolism.

Anaerobic biodigestion of pigs feces in the initial, growing and finishing stages fed with diets formulated with corn or sorghum

Objetivou-se avaliar a produção e a qualidade do biogás e do biofertilizante obtidos em biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de suínos, nas fases inicial, crescimento e terminação, alimentados com dietas formuladas à base de milho ou sorgo. Foram utilizados 20 biodigestores de bancada, com tempo de retenção hidráulica de 30 dias, e cargas diárias que continham 4,0 a 6,0% de sólidos totais (ST) e 3,6 a 5,2% de sólidos voláteis (SV). Nos efluentes dos biodigestores, foram verificados teores médios de ST variando de 1,6 a 2,0% e de SV entre 1,2 e 1,6%. As reduções médias de ST foram de 57,7 a 64,7% e de SV de 61,7 a 69,0%, sendo que houve diferença somente na fase de terminação, na qual as maiores reduções médias foram para biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de animais alimentados com dietas à base de milho. Nos biodigestores abastecidos com dejetos de animais em fase inicial e de crescimento, alimentados com dietas formuladas à base de milho, foram verificadas maiores produções médias de biogás e os maiores potenciais médios de produção de biogás. Os potenciais médios obtidos foram 0,033; 0,181; 0,685; 0,788 e 1,132 m³ por kg de afluente, estrume, ST adicionados, SV adicionados e SV reduzidos, respectivamente. Não foram verificadas diferenças quanto ao teor médio de metano no biogás entre dietas e fases. As concentrações médias dos nutrientes N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na, Fe, Mn, Zn e Cu no afluente e efluente dos biodigestores variaram entre as dietas e fases.

Blood lactate threshold reflects glucose responses in horses submitted to incremental exercise test

Determinou-se, em eqüinos, o efeito do treinamento sobre as concentrações sangüíneas de lactato e plasmáticas de glicose durante exercício de intensidade progressiva em esteira rolante. Demonstrou-se que o treinamento aeróbico causou diminuição da concentração máxima de lactato e que o limiar de lactato corresponde ao ponto de inflexão da curva de glicose plasmática, confirmando esse parâmetro como indicador da capacidade aeróbica de cavalos.

Effects of caffeine on locomotor activity of horses: Determination of the no-effect threshold

Caffeine is the legal stimulant consumed most extensively by the human world population and may be found eventually in the urine and/or blood of race horses, the fact that caffeine is in foods led us to determine the highest no-effect dose (HNED) of caffeine on the spontaneous locomotor activity of horses and then to quantify this substance in urine until it disappeared. We built two behavioural stalls equipped with juxtaposed photoelectric sensors that emit infrared beams that divide the stall into nine sectors in a 'tic-tac-toe' fashion. Each time a beam was interrupted by a leg of the horse, a pulse was generated; the pulses were counted at 5-min intervals and stored by a microcomputer. Environmental effects were minimized by installing exhaust fans producing white noise that obscured outside sounds. One-way observation windows prevented the animals from seeing outside. The sensors were turned on 45 min before drug administration (saline control or caffeine), the animals were observed for up to 8 h after i.v. administration of 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 or 5.0 mg caffeine kg(-1). The HNED of caffeine for stimulation of the spontaneous locomotor activity of horses was 2.0 mg kg(-1). The quantification of caffeine in urine and plasma samples was done by gradient HPLC with UV detection. The no-effect threshold should not be greater than 2.0 mug caffeine ml(-1) plasma or 5.0 mug caffeine ml(-1) urine. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The contribution of genes required for anaerobic respiration to the virulence of Salmonella enterica serovar Gallinarum for chickens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Change of the vortex lattice symmetry in the vicinity of the macro-to-mesoscopic threshold

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of anaerobic cecal microflora, lactose and acetic acid for the protection of broiler chicks against experimental infection with Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella enteritidis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validity of the running anaerobic sprint test for assessing anaerobic power and predicting short-distance performances

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Anaerobic capacity may not be determined by critical power model in elite table tennis players

The aim of the present study was to verify the applicability of anaerobic work capacity (AWC) determined from the critical power model in elite table tennis players. Eight male international level table tennis players participated in the study. The tests undertaken were: 1) A critical frequency test used to determinate the anaerobic work capacity; 2) Wingate tests were performed using leg and arm ergometers. AWC corresponded to 99.5 +/- 29.1 table tennis balls. AWC was not related to peak (r = -0.25), mean (r = -0.02), relative peak (r = -0.49) or relative mean power (r = 0.01), nor fatigue index (r = -0.52) (Wingate leg ergometer). Similar correlations for peak (r = -0.34), mean (r = -0.04), relative peak (r = -0.49), relative mean power (r = -0.14) and peak blood lactate concentration (r = -0.08) were determined in the Wingate arm ergometer test. Based on these results the AWC determined by a modified critical power test was not a good index for measurement of anaerobic capacity in table tennis players.

There is no anaerobic work capacity replenishment at critical power intensity: An indirect evidence

Aim. - This study aimed to test if investigate whether the anaerobic work capacity is replenished while exercising at critical power intensity. Then, a known exercise duration, which demands high anaerobic energy contribution, was compared to intermittent exercise duration with passive and active (cycling at critical power intensity) rest periods.Methods. - Nine participants performed five sessions of testing. From the 1st to the 3rd sessions, individuals cycled continuously at different workloads (P-high, P-intermediate and P-low) in order to estimate the critical power and the anaerobic work capacity. The 4th and 5th sessions were performed in order to determine the influence of anaerobic work capacity replenishment oil exercise duration. They consisted of manipulating the resting type (passive or active) between two cycling efforts. The total exercise duration was determined by the sum of the two cycling efforts duration.Results. - The exercise duration under passive resting condition (408.0 +/- 42.0 s) was longer (p<0.05) than known exercise duration at P-intermediate (T-intermediate = 305.8 +/- 30.5 s) and than exercise duration performed under active resting conditions (T-active = 304.4 +/- 30.7s). However, there was no significant difference between T-intermediate and T-active.Conclusion. - These results demonstrated indirect evidence that the anaerobic work capacity is not replenished while exercising at critical power intensity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

EMG amplitude and frequency parameters of muscular activity: Effect of resistance training based on electromyographic fatigue threshold

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)