Sociality and external validity in experimental economics

It is sometimes argued that experimental economists do not have to worry about external validity so long as the design sticks closely to a theoretical model. This position mistakes the model for the theory. As a result, applied economics designs often study phenomena distinct from their stated objects of inquiry. Because the implemented models are abstract, they may provide improbable analogues to their stated subject matter. This problem is exacerbated by the relational character of the social world, which also sets epistemic limits for the social science laboratory more generally.

the implication of social cognition for experimental economics From the issue entitled "Special issue on Experimental economics and the social embedding of economic behavior and cognition"

Can human social cognitive processes and social motives be grasped by the methods of experimental economics? Experimental studies of strategic cognition and social preferences contribute to our understanding of the social aspects of economic decisions making. Yet, papers in this issue argue that the social aspects of decision-making introduce several difficulties for interpreting the results of economic experiments. In particular, the laboratory is itself a social context, and in many respects a rather distinctive one, which raises questions of external validity.

The strategy makers: thoughts on war and society from Machiavelli and Clausewitz

Introductory chapter. Introduction and excerpts from works of Seigneur de Fourquevaux (1548); Francois Loque – Saillans (1589); Matthew Sutcliffe (1593); Don Bernardino de Mendoza (1595); Paul Hay du Chastelet (1668); Marquis Santa Cruz de Marcenado & Zanthier (1724-30/1775); Guibert (1772); Rühle von Lilienstern (1816/1817).

Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Unsaturated σ-hydrocarbyl transition-metal complexes. Part 3. Crystal and molecular structure of trans-chlorobis(diethylphenylphosphine)(vinyl)platinum(II)

The molecular structure of trans-[PtCl(CHCH2)(PEt2Ph)2] has been determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The crystals are orthorhombic, space group Pbcn, with a= 10.686(2), b= 13.832(4), c= 16.129(4)Å, and Z= 4. The structure has been solved by the heavy-atom method and refined by full-matrix least squares to R 0.044 for 1 420 diffractometric intensity data. The crystals contain discrete molecules in which the platinum co-ordination is square planar. The Pt–Cl bond vector coincides with a crystallographic diad axis about which the atoms of the vinyl group are disordered. Selected bond lengths (Å) are Pt–Cl 2.398(4), Pt–P 2.295(3), and Pt–C 2.03(2). The Pt–CC angle is 127(2)°. From a survey of the available structural data it is concluded that there is little, if any, back donation from platinum to carbon in platinum–alkenyl linkages.

A randomised crossover study investigating the effects of galacto-oligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota in men and women over 50 years of age

Faecal microbial changes associated with ageing include reduced bifidobacteria numbers. These changes coincide with an increased risk of disease development. Prebiotics have been observed to increase bifidobacteria numbers within humans. The present study aimed to determine if prebiotic galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) could benefit a population of men and women of 50 years and above, through modulation of faecal microbiota, fermentation characteristics and faecal water genotoxicity. A total of thirty-seven volunteers completed this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover trial. The treatments – juice containing 4 g GOS and placebo – were consumed twice daily for 3 weeks, preceded by 3-week washout periods. To study the effect of GOS on different large bowel regions, three-stage continuous culture systems were conducted in parallel using faecal inocula from three volunteers. Faecal samples were microbially enumerated by quantitative PCR. In vivo, following GOS intervention, bifidobacteria were significantly more compared to post-placebo (P = 0·02). Accordingly, GOS supplementation had a bifidogenic effect in all in vitro system vessels. Furthermore, in vessel 1 (similar to the proximal colon), GOS fermentation led to more lactobacilli and increased butyrate. No changes in faecal water genotoxicity were observed. To conclude, GOS supplementation significantly increased bifidobacteria numbers in vivo and in vitro. Increased butyrate production and elevated bifidobacteria numbers may constitute beneficial modulation of the gut microbiota in a maturing population.

Impact of polydextrose on the faecal microbiota: a double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled feeding study in healthy human subjects

In this placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover human feeding study, the effects of polydextrose (PDX; 8 g/d) on the colonic microbial composition, immune parameters, bowel habits and quality of life were investigated. PDX is a complex glucose oligomer used as a sugar replacer. The main goal of the present study was to identify the microbial groups affected by PDX fermentation in the colon. PDX was shown to significantly increase the known butyrate producer Ruminococcus intestinalis and bacteria of the Clostridium clusters I, II and IV. Of the other microbial groups investigated, decreases in the faecal Lactobacillus–Enterococcus group were demonstrated. Denaturing gel gradient electrophoresis analysis showed that bacterial profiles between PDX and placebo treatments were significantly different. PDX was shown to be slowly degraded in the colon, and the fermentation significantly reduced the genotoxicity of the faecal water. PDX also affected bowel habits of the subjects, as less abdominal discomfort was recorded and there was a trend for less hard and more formed stools during PDX consumption. Furthermore, reduced snacking was observed upon PDX consumption. This study demonstrated the impact of PDX on the

Spooked: Britain, empire and intelligence since 1945

A collection of pieces on British intelligence including sources (Christopher R. Moran), methodology (Richard Aldrich), media (Philip H.J. Davies), historiography (Calder Walton and Christopher Andrew), South Africa and the Wilson government (Philip Murphy), Pakistan and ISI (Rob Johnson), and UK security policy in the face of radical Islam (Anthony Glees).

Gut microbial catabolism of grape seed flavan-3-ols by human faecal microbiota. Targetted analysis of precursor compounds, intermediate metabolites and end-products.

In vitro batch culture fermentations were conducted with grape seed polyphenols and human faecal microbiota, in order to monitor both changes in precursor flavan-3-ols and the formation of microbial-derived metabolites. By the application of UPLC-DAD-ESI-TQ MS, monomers, and dimeric and trimeric procyanidins were shown to be degraded during the first 10 h of fermentation, with notable inter-individual differences being observed between fermentations. This period (10 h) also coincided with the maximum formation of intermediate metabolites, such as 5-(3′,4′-dihydroxyphenyl)-γ-valerolactone and 4-hydroxy-5-(3′,4′-dihydroxyphenyl)-valeric acid, and of several phenolic acids, including 3-(3,4-dihydroxyphenyl)-propionic acid, 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid, 4-hydroxymandelic acid, and gallic acid (5–10 h maximum formation). Later phases of the incubations (10–48 h) were characterised by the appearance of mono- and non-hydroxylated forms of previous metabolites by dehydroxylation reactions. Of particular interest was the detection of γ-valerolactone, which was seen for the first time as a metabolite from the microbial catabolism of flavan-3-ols. Changes registered during fermentation were finally summarised by a principal component analysis (PCA). Results revealed that 5-(3′,4′-dihydroxyphenyl)-γ-valerolactone was a key metabolite in explaining inter-individual differences and delineating the rate and extent of the microbial catabolism of flavan-3-ols, which could finally affect absorption and bioactivity of these compounds.

In vitro fermentation of a red wine extract by human gut microbiota: changes in microbial groups and formation of phenolic metabolites

An in vitro batch culture fermentation experiment was conducted with fecal inocula from three healthy volunteers in the presence and absence of a red wine extract. Changes in main bacterial groups were determined by FISH during a 48 h fermentation period. The catabolism of main flavonoids (i.e., flavan-3-ols and anthocyanins) and the formation of a wide a range of phenolic microbial metabolites were determined by a targeted UPLC-PAD-ESI-TQ MS method. Statistical analysis revealed that catechol/pyrocatechol, as well as 4-hydroxy-5-(phenyl)-valeric, 3- and 4-hydroxyphenylacetic, phenylacetic, phenylpropionic, and benzoic acids, showed the greatest increases in concentration during fermentation, whereas 5-(3′-hydroxyphenyl)-γ-valerolactone, its open form 4-hydroxy-5-(3′-hydroxyphenyl)-valeric acid, and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid represented the largest interindividual variations in the catabolism of red wine polyphenols. Despite these changes, microbial catabolism did not produce significant changes in the main bacterial groups detected, although a slight inhibition of the Clostridium histolyticum group was observed.