SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Vortex Shedding Dynamics in Long Aspect-Ratio Aerodynamics Bodies

The focus of the current dissertation is to study qualitatively the underlying physics of vortex-shedding and wake dynamics in long aspect-ratio aerodynamics in incompressible viscous flow through the use of the KLE method. We carried out a long series of numerical experiments in the cases of flow around the cylinder at low Reynolds numbers. The study of flow at low Reynolds numbers provides an insight in the fluid physics and also plays a critical role when applying to stalled turbine rotors. Many of the conclusions about the qualitative nature of the physical mechanisms characterizing vortex formation, shedding and further interaction analyzed here at low Re could be extended to other Re regimes and help to understand the separation of the boundary layers in airfoils and other aerodynamic surfaces. In the long run, it aims to provide a better understanding of the complex multi-physics problems involving fluid-structure-control interaction through improved mathematical computational models of the multi-physics process. Besides the scientific conclusions produced, the research work on streamlined and bluff-body condition will also serve as a valuable guide for the future design of blade aerodynamics and the placement of wind turbines and hydrakinetic turbines, increasing the efficiency in the use of expensive workforce, supplies, and infrastructure. After the introductory section describing the main fields of application of wind power and hydrokinetic turbines, we describe the main features and theoretical background of the numerical method used here. Then, we present the analysis of the numerical experimentation results for the oscillatory regime right before the onset of vortex shedding for circular cylinders. We verified the wake length of the closed near-wake behind the cylinder and analysed the decay of the wake at the wake formation region, and then studied the St-Re relationship at the Reynolds numbers before the wake sheds compared to the experimental data. We found a theoretical model that describes the time evolution of the amplitude of fluctuations in the vorticity field on the twin vortex wake, which accurately matches the numerical results in terms of the frequency of the oscillation and rate of decay. We also proposed a model based on an analog circuit that is able to interpret the concerning flow by reducing the number of degrees of freedom. It follows the idea of the non-linear oscillator and resembles the dynamics mechanism of the closed near-wake with a common configured sine wave oscillator. This low-dimensional circuital model may also help to understand the underlying physical mechanisms, related to vorticity transport, that give origin to those oscillations.

Factors affecting current and future treeline locations and dynamics in the Peruvian Andes

The elevational distributions of tropical treelines are thought to be determined by temperature, and are predicted to shift upslope in response to global warming. In contrast to this hypothesis, global-scale studies have shown that only half of all studied treelines are shifting upslope. Understanding how treelines will respond to climate change has important implications for global biodiversity, especially in the tropics, because tropical treelines generally represent the upper-elevation distribution limit of the hyper-diverse cloudforest ecosystem. In Chapter 1, I introduce the idea that grasslands found above tropical treelines may represent a potential grass ceiling which forest species cannot cross or invade. I use an extensive literature review to outline potential mechanisms which may be acting to stabilize treeline and prevent forest expansion into high-elevation grasslands. In Chapters 2-4, I begin to explore these potential mechanisms through the use of observational and experimental methods. In Chapter 2, I show that there are significant numbers of seedlings occurring just outside of the treeline in the open grasslands and that seed rain is unlikely to limit seedling recruitment above treeline. I also show that microclimates outside of the closed-canopy cloudforest are highly variable and that mean temperatures are likely a poor explanation of tropical treeline elevations. In Chapter 3, I show that juvenile trees maintain freezing resistances similar to adults, but nighttime radiative cooling near the ground in the open grassland results in lower cold temperatures relative to the free atmosphere, exposing seedlings of some species growing above treeline to lethal frost events. In Chapter 4, I use a large-scale seedling transplant experiment to test the effects of mean temperature, absolute low temperature and shade on transplanted seedling survival. I find that increasing mean temperature negatively affects seedling survival of two treeline species while benefiting another. In addition, low temperature extremes and the presence of shade also appear to be important factors affecting seedling survival above tropical treelines. This work demonstrates that mean temperature is a poor predictor of tropical treelines and that temperature extremes, especially low temperatures, and non-climatic variables should be included in predictions of current and future tropical treeline dynamics.^

Spatial dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain (2010-2012)

Progress in control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is often not uniform, usually due to the effect of one or more sometimes unknown epidemiological factors impairing the success of eradication programs. Use of spatial analysis can help to identify clusters of persistence of disease, leading to the identification of these factors thus allowing the implementation of targeted control measures, and may provide some insights of disease transmission, particularly when combined with molecular typing techniques. Here, the spatial dynamics of bTB in a high prevalence region of Spain were assessed during a three year period (2010-2012) using data from the eradication campaigns to detect clusters of positive bTB herds and of those infected with certain Mycobacterium bovis strains (characterized using spoligotyping and VNTR typing). In addition, the within-herd transmission coefficient (β) was estimated in infected herds and its spatial distribution and association with other potential outbreak and herd variables was evaluated. Significant clustering of positive herds was identified in the three years of the study in the same location ("high risk area"). Three spoligotypes (SB0339, SB0121 and SB1142) accounted for >70% of the outbreaks detected in the three years. VNTR subtyping revealed the presence of few but highly prevalent strains within the high risk area, suggesting maintained transmission in the area. The spatial autocorrelation found in the distribution of the estimated within-herd transmission coefficients in herds located within distances <14 km and the results of the spatial regression analysis, support the hypothesis of shared local factors affecting disease transmission in farms located at a close proximity.

Re-imagining the theology of human sexuality in the Methodist Church: the use of narrative in theological methodology

This thesis proposes the development of a narrative methodology in the British Methodist Church. Such a methodology embraces and communicates both felt experience and critical theological thinking, thus producing and presenting a theology that might have a constructive transformative impact on wider society. In chapter one I explore the ways in which the Church speaks in public, identify some of the challenges it faces, and consider four models of engagement. If the Church is to engage in public discourses then I argue that its words need to be relevant and connect with people’s experiences. To ground the thinking I focus on the context of the British Methodist Church and explore how the Church engages in theological reflection through the lens of its thinking on issues of human sexuality. Chapter two reviews how theological reflection is undertaken in the British Methodist Church. I describe how the Methodist Quadrilateral of Scripture, tradition, reason and experience remains a foundational framework for theological reflection within the Methodist Church and consider the impact of institutional processes and the ways in which the Methodist people actually engage with theological thinking. The third and fourth chapters focus on how the British Methodist Church has produced its theology of human sexuality, giving particular attention to the use of personal and sexual stories in this process. I find that whilst there has been a desire to listen to the stories of the Methodist people, there has not been a corresponding interrogation or analysis of their stories so as to enable robust and constructive theological reflection on these experiences. Using resources from Foucauldian approaches to discourse analysis, I critique key statements and the processes involved in their production, offering an analysis of this body of theological thinking and indicating where possibilities for alternative ways of thinking and acting arise. The proposed methodology draws upon resources from social science methodologies, and in chapter five I look at the use of personal experience and relevant strategies of inquiry that prompt reflection on the hermeneutical process and employ narrative approaches in undertaking, analysing and presenting research. The exploration shows that qualitative research methodologies offer resources and methods of inquiry that could help the Church to engage with personal stories in its theological thinking in a robust, interrogative and imaginative way. In chapter six an examination of story and narrative is undertaken, to show how they have been understood as ways of knowing and how they relate to theological inquiry. Whilst acknowledging some of the limitations of narrative, I indicate how it offers constructive possibilities for theological reflection and could be a means for the British Methodist Church to engage in public discourse. This is explored further in chapter seven, which looks in more detail at how the British Methodist Church has used narrative in its theological thinking, and outlines areas requiring further attention in order for a narrative theological methodology to be developed, namely: attention to the question ‘whose experience?’; investigation of issues of power and the dynamics involved in the process of the production of theological thought; how personal stories and experiences are interrogated and how narrative is constructed; and how narrative might be employed within the Methodist Quadrilateral. The final chapter considers the advantages and limitations of such an approach, whether the development of such a method is possible in the Methodist Church today and its potential for helping the Church to engage in public discourse more effectively. I argue that this methodology can provoke new theological insights and enable new ways of being in the world

Diphenylhexatriene membrane probes DPH and TMA-DPH: A comparative molecular dynamics simulation study

Fluorescence spectroscopy andmicroscopy have been utilized as tools in membrane biophysics for decades now. Because phospholipids are non-fluorescent, the use of extrinsic membrane probes in this context is commonplace. Among the latter, 1,6-diphenylhexatriene (DPH) and its trimethylammonium derivative (TMA-DPH) have been extensively used. It is widely believed that, owing to its additional charged group, TMA-DPH is anchored at the lipid/water interface and reports on a bilayer region that is distinct from that of the hydrophobic DPH. In this study, we employ atomistic MD simulations to characterize the behavior of DPH and TMA-DPH in 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC) and POPC/cholesterol (4:1) bilayers. We show that although the dynamics of TMA-DPH in thesemembranes is noticeably more hindered than that of DPH, the location of the average fluorophore of TMA-DPH is only ~3–4 Å more shallow than that of DPH. The hindrance observed in the translational and rotational motions of TMA-DPH compared to DPH is mainly not due to significant differences in depth, but to the favorable electrostatic interactions of the former with electronegative lipid atoms instead. By revealing detailed insights on the behavior of these two probes, our results are useful both in the interpretation of past work and in the planning of future experiments using themasmembrane reporters.

An R package for simulating metapopulation dynamics and range expansion under environmental change

The metapopulation paradigm is central in ecology and conservation biology to understand the dynamics of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulations are often studied using simulation modelling, and there is an increasing demand of user-friendly software tools to simulate metapopulation responses to environmental change. Here we describe the MetaLandSim R package, mwhich integrates ideas from metapopulation and graph theories to simulate the dynamics of real and virtual metapopulations. The package offers tools to (i) estimate metapopulation parameters from empirical data, (ii) to predict variation in patch occupancy over time in static and dynamic landscapes, either real or virtual, and (iii) to quantify the patterns and speed of metapopulation expansion into empty landscapes. MetaLandSim thus provides detailed information on metapopulation processes, which can be easily combined with land use and climate change scenarios to predict metapopulation dynamics and range expansion for a variety of taxa and ecological systems.

Diphenylhexatriene membrane probes DPH and TMA-DPH: A comparative molecular dynamics simulation study

Fluorescence spectroscopy andmicroscopy have been utilized as tools in membrane biophysics for decades now. Because phospholipids are non-fluorescent, the use of extrinsic membrane probes in this context is commonplace. Among the latter, 1,6-diphenylhexatriene (DPH) and its trimethylammonium derivative (TMA-DPH) have been extensively used. It is widely believed that, owing to its additional charged group, TMA-DPH is anchored at the lipid/water interface and reports on a bilayer region that is distinct from that of the hydrophobic DPH. In this study, we employ atomistic MD simulations to characterize the behavior of DPH and TMA-DPH in 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC) and POPC/cholesterol (4:1) bilayers. We show that although the dynamics of TMA-DPH in thesemembranes is noticeably more hindered than that of DPH, the location of the average fluorophore of TMA-DPH is only ~3–4 Å more shallow than that of DPH. The hindrance observed in the translational and rotational motions of TMA-DPH compared to DPH is mainly not due to significant differences in depth, but to the favorable electrostatic interactions of the former with electronegative lipid atoms instead. By revealing detailed insights on the behavior of these two probes, our results are useful both in the interpretation of past work and in the planning of future experiments using themasmembrane reporters.

Carbon sequestration associated to the land-use and land-cover changes in the forestry sector in Southern Brazil.

We studied the Paraíba do Sul river watershed , São Paulo state (PSWSP), Southeastern Brazil, in order to assess the land use and cover (LULC) and their implication s to the amount of carbon (C) stored in the forest cover between the years 1985 and 2015. Th e region covers a n area of 1,395,975 ha . We used images made by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor (OLI/Landsat - 8) to produce mappings , and image segmentation techniques to produce vectors with homogeneous characteristics. The training samples and the samples used for classification and validation were collected from the segmented image. To quantify the C stocked in aboveground live biomass (AGLB) , we used an indirect method and applied literature - based reference values. The recovery of 205,690 ha of a secondary Native Forest (NF) after 1985 sequestered 9.7 Tg (Teragram) of C . Considering the whole NF area (455,232 ha), the amount of C accumulated al ong the whole watershed was 3 5 .5 Tg , and the whole Eucalyptus crop (EU) area (113,600 ha) sequester ed 4. 4 Tg of C. Thus, the total amount of C sequestered in the whole watershed (NF + EU) was 3 9 . 9 Tg of C or 1 45 . 6 Tg of CO 2 , and the NF areas were responsible for the large st C stock at the watershed (8 9 %). Therefore , the increase of the NF cover contribut es positively to the reduction of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD + ) may become one of the most promising compensation mechanisms for the farmers who increased forest cover at their farms.

The role of biological processes in affecting the dynamics and fate of microplastics in coastal marine systems

Microplastics (MP) are omnipresent contaminants in the marine environment. Ingestion of MP has been reported for a wide range of marine biota, but to what extent the uptake by organisms affects the dynamics and fate of MP in the marine system has received little attention. My thesis explored this topic by integrating laboratory tests and experiments, field quantitative surveys of MP distribution and dynamics, and the use of specialised analytical techniques such as Attenuated-Total-Reflectance- (ATR) and imaging- Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). I compared different methodologies to extract MP from wild invertebrate specimens, and selected the use of potassium hydroxide (KOH) as the most cost-effective approach. I used this approach to analyse the MP contamination in various invertebrate species with different ecological traits from European salt marshes. I found that 96% of the analysed specimens (330) did not contain any MP. As preliminary environmental analyses showed high levels of environmental MP contamination, I hypothesised that most MP do not accumulate into organisms but are rather fast egested. I subsequently used laboratory multi-trophic experiments and a long-term field experiment using the filter-feeding mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis and the detritus feeding polychaete Hediste diversicolor to test the aforementioned hypothesis. Overall, results showed that MP are ingested but rapidly egested by marine invertebrates, which may limit MP transfer via predator-prey interactions but at the same time enhance their transfer via detrital pathways in the sediments. These processes seem to be extremely variable over time, with potential unexplored environmental consequences. This rapid dynamics also limits the conclusions that can be derived from static observations of MP contents in marine organisms, not fully capturing the real levels of potential contaminations by marine species. This emphasises the need to consider such dynamics in future work to measure the uptake rates by organisms in natural systems.

Dynamics of undeactuated cable-driven parallel robots

This thesis focuses on the dynamics of underactuated cable-driven parallel robots (UACDPRs), including various aspects of robotic theory and practice, such as workspace computation, parameter identification, and trajectory planning. After a brief introduction to CDPRs, UACDPR kinematic and dynamic models are analyzed, under the relevant assumption of inextensible cables. The free oscillatory motion of the end-effector (EE), which is a unique feature of underactuated mechanisms, is studied in detail, from both a kinematic and a dynamic perspective. The free (small) oscillations of the EE around equilibria are proved to be harmonic and the corresponding natural oscillation frequencies are analytically computed. UACDPR workspace computation and analysis are then performed. A new performance index is proposed for the analysis of the influence of actuator errors on cable tensions around equilibrium configurations, and a new type of workspace, called tension-error-insensitive, is defined as the set of poses that a UACDPR EE can statically attain even in presence of actuation errors, while preserving tensions between assigned (positive) bounds. EE free oscillations are then employed to conceive a novel procedure aimed at identifying the EE inertial parameters. This approach does not require the use of force or torque measurements. Moreover, a self-calibration procedure for the experimental determination of UACDPR initial cable lengths is developed, which consequently enables the robot to automatically infer the EE initial pose at machine start-up. Lastly, trajectory planning of UACDPRs is investigated. Two alternative methods are proposed, which aim at (i) reducing EE oscillations even when model parameters are uncertain or (ii) eliminate EE oscillations in case model parameters are perfectly known. EE oscillations are reduced in real-time by dynamically scaling a nominal trajectory and filtering it with an input shaper, whereas they can be eliminated if an off-line trajectory is computed that accounts for the system internal dynamics.

‘I can use things, but I can't make anything’: a qualitative exploration of team networks in the development and implementation of a new undergraduate e-compendium

In higher education, undergraduate teaching materials are increasingly becoming available online. There is a need to understand the complex processes that happen during their production and how social networks between different groups impact on their development. This paper draws on qualitative interviews and participant drawings of their social networks to understand the dynamics of creating a new e-compendium for a four-year online undergraduate nursing programme in Norway. Twenty staff interviews were undertaken to explore views of the e-compendium, the development process and the perceived networks that were formed during this course. Interview data were thematically analysed along with networks drawings. The findings showed three main institutional stakeholder groups emerging: the ‘management team’, ‘design team’ and ‘lecturers’. Analysis of social networks revealed variability of relations both within and between groups. The pedagogical designer, who was part of the design team, was central to communicating with and co-ordinating staff at all levels. The least well connected were the lecturers. To them, the e-compendium challenged and even threatened previously well-established notions of pedagogy. Future development of e-compendiums should account for the perceived lack of time and existing workload of lecturers so they may be involved with the development process.

Dynamics of terricolous alpine lichen communities of the Alps and Mediterranean Mountains in a climate change perspective

This thesis focuses on the impact of climate change in alpine ecosystems stressing the response of high elevation terricolous lichen communities. In fact, despite the strong sensitivity of cryptogams to changes in climatic factors, information is still scanty.We collected records in 154 plots placed in the summit area of the Majella Massif. In Following a multitaxon approach, Chapter 1 includes cryptogams and vascular plants. We analysed patterns in species richness, beta diversity and functional composition. In Chapter 2, we analysed the relationships between climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity and structure indices. Chapter 3 provides a long-term response relative to the consequences of climate change on a representative terricolous lichen genus across the Alps. Chapter 4 explores the relationships between the species richness and the functional composition of lichen growing on two types of substrates (carbonatic and siliceous soils) along different elevation gradients in the Eastern Alps. Climate change could affect cryptogams and lichens much more than vascular plants in Mediterranean mountains. Contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were found between lichens and bryophytes, suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Ongoing climate change may also lead to a loss of genetic diversity at high elevation ranges in the Mediterranean mountains, pauperising the life history richness of lichens. Alpine results forecasted that moderate range loss dynamics will occur at low elevation and in peripheral areas of the alpine chain. Results also support the view that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies, dispersal, and establishment ability. We also highlighted the importance of substrates as a main driver of both species’ richness and functional traits composition. A “trade-off” also occurs between stress tolerance and the competitive response of communities of terricolous lichens that grow above siliceous and carbonatic soils.

Smart Farming in Italian agriculture: essays on adoption and diffusion dynamics shaping the agricultural digital transition

Smart Farming Technologies (SFT) is a term used to define the set of digital technologies able not only to control and manage the farm system, but also to connect it to the many disruptive digital applications posed at multiple links along the value chain. The adoption of SFT has been so far limited, with significant differences at country-levels and among different types of farms and farmers. The objective of this thesis is to analyze what factors contributes to shape the agricultural digital transition and to assess its potential impacts in the Italian agri-food system. Specifically, this overall research objective is approached under three different perspectives. Firstly, we carry out a review of the literature that focuses on the determinants of adoption of farm-level Management Information Systems (MIS), namely the most adopted smart farming solutions in Italy. Secondly, we run an empirical analysis on what factors are currently shaping the adoption of SFT in Italy. In doing so, we focus on the multi-process and multi-faceted aspects of the adoption, by overcoming the one-off binary approach often used to study adoption decisions. Finally, we adopt a forward-looking perspective to investigate what the socio-ethical implications of a diffused use of SFT might be. On the one hand, our results indicate that bigger, more structured farms with higher levels of commercial integration along the agri-food supply chain are those more likely to be early adopters. On the other hand, they highlight the need for the institutional and organizational environment around farms to more effectively support farmers in the digital transition. Moreover, the role of several other actors and actions are discussed and analyzed, by highlighting the key role of specific agri-food stakeholders and ad-hoc policies, with the aim to propose a clearer path towards an efficient, fair and inclusive digitalization of the agrifood sector.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.