888 resultados para Two-stage stochastic model


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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

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This work studies fuel retail firms’ strategic behavior in a two-dimensional product differentiation framework. Following the mandatory provision of “low-cost” fuel we consider that capacity constraints force firms to eliminate of one the previously offered qualities. Firms play a two-stage game choosing fuel qualities from three possibilities (low-cost, medium quality and high quality fuel) and then prices having exogenous opposite locations. In the highest level of consumers’ heterogeneity, a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exists in which firms both choose minimum quality differentiation. Consumers’ are worse off if no differentiation occurs in medium and high qualities. The effect over prices from the mandatory “low-cost” fuel law is ambiguous.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira

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We consider collective choice problems where a set of agents have to choose an alternative from a finite set and agents may or may not become users of the chosen alternative. An allocation is a pair given by the chosen alternative and the set of its users. Agents have gregarious preferences over allocations: given an allocation, they prefer that the set of users becomes larger. We require that the final allocation be efficient and stable (no agent can be forced to be a user and no agent who wants to be a user can be excluded). We propose a two-stage sequential mechanism whose unique subgame perfect equilibrium outcome is an efficient and stable allocation which also satisfies a maximal participation property.

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The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

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This paper analyses intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain correcting for different selection biases. We address the co-residence selection problem by combining information from two samples and using the two-sample two-stage least square estimator. We find a small decrease in elasticity when we move to younger cohorts. Furthermore, we find a higher correlation in the case of daughters than in the case of sons; however, when we consider the employment selection in the case of daughters, by adopting a Heckman-type correction method, the diference between sons and daughters disappears. By decomposing the sources of earnings elasticity across generations, we find that the correlation between child's and father's occupation is the most important component. Finally, quantile regressions estimates show that the influence of the father's earnings is greater when we move to the lower tail of the offspring's earnings distribution, especially in the case of daughters' earnings.

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In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

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This Final Report is the culmination of a two-stage process aimed at fulfilling the request of the previous Minister for Health and Children (Mary Harney) in relation to the practice of symphysiotomy in Ireland. The first phase was an independent academic research report. The second phase involved consultation with relevant stakeholders to provide comment on the report.  Download the report here  

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Although the relationship between serum uric acid (SUA) and adiposity is well established, the direction of the causality is still unclear in the presence of conflicting evidences. We used a bidirectional Mendelian randomization approach to explore the nature and direction of causality between SUA and adiposity in a population-based study of Caucasians aged 35 to 75 years. We used, as instrumental variables, rs6855911 within the SUA gene SLC2A9 in one direction, and combinations of SNPs within the adiposity genes FTO, MC4R and TMEM18 in the other direction. Adiposity markers included weight, body mass index, waist circumference and fat mass. We applied a two-stage least squares regression: a regression of SUA/adiposity markers on our instruments in the first stage and a regression of the response of interest on the fitted values from the first stage regression in the second stage. SUA explained by the SLC2A9 instrument was not associated to fat mass (regression coefficient [95% confidence interval]: 0.05 [-0.10, 0.19] for fat mass) contrasting with the ordinary least square estimate (0.37 [0.34, 0.40]). By contrast, fat mass explained by genetic variants of the FTO, MC4R and TMEM18 genes was positively and significantly associated to SUA (0.31 [0.01, 0.62]), similar to the ordinary least square estimate (0.27 [0.25, 0.29]). Results were similar for the other adiposity markers. Using a bidirectional Mendelian randomization approach in adult Caucasians, our findings suggest that elevated SUA is a consequence rather than a cause of adiposity.

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Astrocytes have recently become a major center of interest in neurochemistry with the discoveries on their major role in brain energy metabolism. An interesting way to probe this glial contribution is given by in vivo (13) C NMR spectroscopy coupled with the infusion labeled glial-specific substrate, such as acetate. In this study, we infused alpha-chloralose anesthetized rats with [2-(13) C]acetate and followed the dynamics of the fractional enrichment (FE) in the positions C4 and C3 of glutamate and glutamine with high sensitivity, using (1) H-[(13) C] magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 14.1T. Applying a two-compartment mathematical model to the measured time courses yielded a glial tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle rate (Vg ) of 0.27 ± 0.02 μmol/g/min and a glutamatergic neurotransmission rate (VNT ) of 0.15 ± 0.01 μmol/g/min. Glial oxidative ATP metabolism thus accounts for 38% of total oxidative metabolism measured by NMR. Pyruvate carboxylase (VPC ) was 0.09 ± 0.01 μmol/g/min, corresponding to 37% of the glial glutamine synthesis rate. The glial and neuronal transmitochondrial fluxes (Vx (g) and Vx (n) ) were of the same order of magnitude as the respective TCA cycle fluxes. In addition, we estimated a glial glutamate pool size of 0.6 ± 0.1 μmol/g. The effect of spectral data quality on the fluxes estimates was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations. In this (13) C-acetate labeling study, we propose a refined two-compartment analysis of brain energy metabolism based on (13) C turnover curves of acetate, glutamate and glutamine measured with state of the art in vivo dynamic MRS at high magnetic field in rats, enabling a deeper understanding of the specific role of glial cells in brain oxidative metabolism. In addition, the robustness of the metabolic fluxes determination relative to MRS data quality was carefully studied.

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In the accounting literature, interaction or moderating effects are usually assessed by means of OLS regression and summated rating scales are constructed to reduce measurement error bias. Structural equation models and two-stage least squares regression could be used to completely eliminate this bias, but large samples are needed. Partial Least Squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. In this article, disattenuated regression is discussed as a small sample alternative and is illustrated on data of Bisbe and Otley (in press) that examine the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on performance. Sizeable differences emerge between OLS and disattenuated regression

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PURPOSE: To assess objective response rate (ORR) after two cycles of temozolomide in combination with topotecan (TOTEM) in children with refractory or relapsed neuroblastoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This multicenter, non-randomised, phase II study included children with neuroblastoma according to a two-stage Simon design. Eligibility criteria included relapsed or refractory, measurable or metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) evaluable disease, no more than two lines of prior treatment. Temozolomide was administered orally at 150mg/m(2) followed by topotecan at 0.75mg/m(2) intravenously for five consecutive days every 28days. Tumour response was assessed every two cycles according to International Neuroblastoma Response Criteria (INRC), and reviewed independently. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients were enroled and treated in 15 European centres with a median age of 5.4years. Partial tumour response after two cycles was observed in 7 out of 38 evaluable patients [ORR 18%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8-34%]. The best ORR whatever the time of evaluation was 24% (95% CI, 11-40%) with a median response duration of 8.5months. Tumour control rate (complete response (CR)+partial response (PR)+mixed response (MR)+stable disease (SD)) was 68% (95% CI, 63-90%). The 12-months Progression-Free and Overall Survival were 42% and 58% respectively. Among 213 treatment cycles (median 4, range 1-12 per patient) the most common treatment-related toxicities were haematologic. Grade 3/4 neutropenia occurred in 62% of courses in 89% of patients, grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia in 47% of courses in 71% of patients; three patients (8%) had febrile neutropenia. CONCLUSION: Temozolomide-Topotecan combination results in very encouraging ORR and tumour control in children with heavily pretreated recurrent and refractory neuroblastoma with favourable toxicity profile.

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The present study was conducted to explore whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Th1 and Th17 cell-mediated immune response genes differentially influence the risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in women and men. In phase one, 27 functional/tagging polymorphisms in C-type lectins and MCP-1/CCR2 axis were genotyped in 458 RA patients and 512 controls. Carriers of Dectin-2 rs4264222T allele had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.10-1.96) whereas patients harboring the DC-SIGN rs4804803G, MCP-1 rs1024611G, MCP-1 rs13900T and MCP-1 rs4586C alleles had a decreased risk of developing the disease (OR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.49-0.88; OR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.50-0.89; OR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.55-0.97 and OR = 0.68, 95%CI 0.51-0.91). Interestingly, significant gender-specific differences were observed for Dectin-2 rs4264222 and Dectin-2 rs7134303: women carrying the Dectin-2 rs4264222T and Dectin-2 rs7134303G alleles had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.93, 95%CI 1.34-2.79 and OR = 1.90, 95%CI 1.29-2.80). Also five other SNPs showed significant associations only with one gender: women carrying the MCP-1 rs1024611G, MCP-1 rs13900T and MCP-1 rs4586C alleles had a decreased risk of RA (OR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.43-0.87; OR = 0.67, 95%CI 0.47-0.95 and OR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.42-0.86). In men, carriers of the DC-SIGN rs2287886A allele had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.70, 95%CI 1.03-2.78), whereas carriers of the DC-SIGN rs4804803G had a decreased risk of developing the disease (OR = 0.53, 95%CI 0.32-0.89). In phase 2, we genotyped these SNPs in 754 RA patients and 519 controls, leading to consistent gender-specific associations for Dectin-2 rs4264222, MCP-1 rs1024611, MCP-1 rs13900 and DC-SIGN rs4804803 polymorphisms in the pooled sample (OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.08-1.77; OR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.58-0.94; OR = 0.76, 95%CI 0.59-0.97 and OR = 0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.93). SNP-SNP interaction analysis of significant SNPs also showed a significant two-locus interaction model in women that was not seen in men. This model consisted of Dectin-2 rs4264222 and Dectin-2 rs7134303 SNPs and suggested a synergistic effect between the variants. These findings suggest that Dectin-2, MCP-1 and DC-SIGN polymorphisms may, at least in part, account for gender-associated differences in susceptibility to RA.

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The aim of the study was to assess the basic indicators of health of adolescents in Georgia. A self-administered anonymous questionnaire was adapted from the Swiss Survey (SMASH2002), translated into Georgian and other languages mainly used in schools (Russian, Armenian and Azeri). It contained 87 questions. Two-stage cluster sampling was devised. Weight was adjusted. A total of 599 classes were selected. All questionnaires before being processed into the Epidata (www.epidata.dk) were edited. The final data were analysed by SPSS 11.0. General health status was considered as excellent and very good by 34.0+/-0.8% of respondents. 21.5% claimed to never miss the school due to the illness. The frequencies of physical disability and chronic diseases were 8.0% and 5.0% correspondingly. Among health-related problems the most frequent are problems with teeth, headache and acne. 5.9% of girls had some kind of gynecological problems quite often and very often. Performed survey is a first one done among adolescents in Georgia. It gave us basic information for planning and implementation of necessary measures in order to improve the health of adolescents and raise awareness of professionals involved in health care and prevention settings for adolescents. The data can be also used for monitoring of health status of adolescents in Georgia.