Lukashenka has to choose: reforms or concessions to Russia. OSW Commentary No. 42, 2010-10-27

The most serious crisis in the history of Russian-Belarusian relations has been taking place over the past few months. In 2007 Russia started the process of depriving Belarus of subsidies in the form of supplies of fuels at low prices, which have for more than a decade guaranteed the stability of the Belarusian economic model, and is continuing this process now at an accelerated rate. At the same time, the Russian media started attacks on Alyaksandr Lukashenka from the middle of this year. This toughening up of Russia’s measures indicates that the Kremlin is determined to implement its goals regarding Belarus, including first of all taking over its strategic economic assets, which would result in a significant weakening of Lukashenka’s position. The Belarusian government has been consistently avoiding meeting Russian demands, while at the same time insisting on the reinstatement of preferential conditions of co-operation. If the Belarusian leader continues resisting Russian demands, the crisis in Russian- -Belarusian relations will be aggravated, and a conflict over energy issues around the turn of 2011 cannot be ruled out. The reduction in preferences offered by Russia in the energy sector has significantly impaired the condition of the Belarusian economy, and may lead to its breakdown in a year or two. As his country comes under increasing pressure from Russia, Alyaksandr Lukashenka will soon have to make a strategic choice between yielding to the Kremlin’s demands and embarking upon an at least partial restructuring of the economy.

Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession. OSW Commentary No. 96, 2012-11-21

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia. Poor economic growth is expected to result in lower than projected budget revenues, which in turn could lead to the sequestration of the budget in December. The decline evident across the key economic indicators in the second half of 2012 brings to a close a period of relative economic stability and two years of economic growth, which had been seen as a significant personal achievement of President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions. The health of the Ukrainian economy largely depends on the state of the country’s export- -oriented industries. The current economic forecasts for foreign markets are not very optimistic. It is impossible to determine whether the current economic downturn is likely to be merely temporary or whether it heralds the onset of a prolonged economic crisis. The limited capacity to deal with the growing economic problems may mean that Kiev will need to seek financial support from abroad. This is particularly significant with regard to external debt servicing, since in 2013 Ukraine will need to pay back around 9 billion USD, including over 5.5 billion USD to the International Monetary Fund. In order to overcome the recession and stabilise public finances, the government may be forced to take a series of unpopular measures, including raising the price of natural gas and utilities. These measures have been stipulated by the IMF as a condition of further financial assistance and the disbursement of the 12 billion USD stabilisation loan granted to Ukraine in July 2010. The only alternative for Western loans and economic reforms appears to be financial support from Russia. The price for Moscow’s help might however turn out to be very high, and precipitate a turn in Kiev’s foreign policy towards a gradual re-integration of former Soviet republics under Moscow-led geopolitical projects.

The Rocky Road to an EU-Armenia Agreement: From U-turn to detour. CEPS Commentary, 3 February 2015

The EU was taken by surprise when the President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, stood by his Russian counterpart and announced Armenia’s plans to join the Russian-led Customs Union in September 2013. After all, before this announcement Armenia and the EU had successfully concluded negotiations on their Association Agreement. Armenia is still suffering the consequences of the Kremlin’s coercion to reject this Association Agreement. Indeed, as Armenians around the world commemorate the centenary of the Armenian Genocide by Ottoman Turkey, the Republic of Armenia is facing mounting challenges. The country remains subject to an economic blockade by Turkey and is in conflict with Azerbaijan. Ever since President’s Sargsyan’s astonishing volte-face, the EU and Armenia are still in the process of trying to rework the failed agreement. The author of this commentary argues that because the future of any new agreement is uncertain, negotiations should be accompanied by a pragmatic EU-Armenia roadmap. This roadmap, alongside the start of the visa liberalisation process and Armenia’s signing up to the European Common Aviation Agreement and Horizon 2020, could become a deliverable at the Riga Summit on 26-27 April 2015.

Drosophila melanogaster larvae make nutritional choices that minimize developmental time

Organisms from slime moulds to humans carefully regulate their macronutrient intake to optimize a wide range of life history characters including survival, stress resistance, and reproductive success. However, life history characters often differ in their response to nutrition, forcing organisms to make foraging decisions while balancing the trade-offs between these effects. To date, we have a limited understanding of how the nutritional environment shapes the relationship between life history characters and foraging decisions. To gain insight into the problem, we used a geometric framework for nutrition to assess how the protein and carbohydrate content of the larval diet affected key life history traits in the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster. In no-choice assays, survival from egg to pupae, female and male body size, and ovariole number - a proxy for female fecundity - were maximized at the highest protein to carbohydrate (P:C) ratio (1.5:1). In contrast, development time was minimized at intermediate P:C ratios, around 1:2. Next, we subjected larvae to two-choice tests to determine how they regulated their protein and carbohydrate intake in relation to these life history traits. Our results show that larvae targeted their consumption to P:C ratios that minimized development time. Finally, we examined whether adult females also chose to lay their eggs in the P:C ratios that minimized developmental time. Using a three-choice assay, we found that adult females preferentially laid their eggs in food P:C ratios that were suboptimal for all larval life history traits. Our results demonstrate that D. melanogaster larvae make foraging decisions that trade-off developmental time with body size, ovariole number, and survival. In addition, adult females make oviposition decisions that do not appear to benefit the larvae. We propose that these decisions may reflect the living nature of the larval nutritional environment in rotting fruit. These studies illustrate the interaction between the nutritional environment, life history traits, and foraging choices in D. melanogaster, and lend insight into the ecology of their foraging decisions.

TIC em hospitais privados: estudo do uso, do custo e da integração

A tese estuda e analisa as Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (TIC) disponíveis em hospitais no Brasil, associados à ANAHP – Associação Nacional de Hospitais Privados que patrocinou a coleta de dados e apoiou a pesquisa com dois temas centrais: uso e custo; integração e interoperabilidade das TIC. A Organização para a Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD), em estudo sobre TIC em saúde, afirmou que, se implantadas de maneira eficiente, as TIC podem resultar em melhoria da qualidade na prestação de serviços de saúde, aumento da segurança no atendimento ao paciente e custos menores. Para permitir a comparação de resultados e o uso de modelos de pesquisa confiáveis, este estudo adaptou o Modelo de Pesquisa de Uso de TI utilizado pelo GVcia - Centro de Tecnologia da Informação Aplicada da FGV – EAESP e realizou uma complementação dos instrumentos de pesquisa para levantar dados específicos da integração das TIC em hospitais utilizando com referência uma pesquisa aplicada a hospitais norte-americanos. A coleta de dados foi realizada para o período 2009 a 2015 em duas etapas. Na primeira, foi enviado o questionário eletrônico, validado por executivos de hospitais e apresentado no apêndice A. Na segunda etapa, os dados enviados foram validados e aspectos da integração foram esclarecidos por meio de entrevistas. O estudo de custo e uso das TIC resultou no cálculo de diversos indicadores. Gastos e investimentos com TIC em hospitais privados atingiu a 3,5% do faturamento anual dos hospitais da amostra enquanto que o setor da saúde, por sua vez, gastou e investiu 6,4% do faturamento anual com as TIC que implementou. Outro indicador inédito e importante para futuros estudos no setor é o custo anual das TIC por leito hospitalar que permaneceu estável em torno de US$ 39.000 entre 2010 e 2014 e caiu para US$ 36.000 em 2015, valor equivalente a R$ 120.000 de dezembro de 2015. Outras estatísticas e indicadores apresentados no estudo ajudam a entender a evolução e o desempenho das TIC na prestação de serviços de saúde e poderão ser úteis para decidir se as TIC ajudarão a melhorar a segurança e atenção ao paciente, aos profissionais de saúde no acesso a dados do paciente, e a necessária sintonia com o Modelo da Saúde Digital (e-Saúde), a custos adequados. Os resultados do presente estudo são comparáveis aos americanos semelhantes e permitem inferir que o parque tecnológico em uso nos hospitais privados brasileiros poderá alavancar a integração de sistemas existentes, permitindo a sintonia com Modelos de Saúde Digital, com a melhoria de desempenho da cadeia estendida da saúde na atenção ao cidadão que poderá ser assistido onde estiver, a qualquer momento, com segurança. Ação gerencial e investimentos são os tópicos centrais que envolvem a integração.

Possible Approaches to Commercializing Applied University Research: a Russian Case Study

This paper discusses the environment around universities in Russia and possible approaches to analyzing and choosing the method for applied research results commercialization as well as selecting promising applied research areas in that environment. Conceptual foundations for decision making during the commercialization and roadmap/action plan creation processes are outlined. These can be useful to both universities for planning their activities aswell as for organizations that plan to cooperate with universities or that are interested in university generated research. This being said, obtained models and used evaluation parameters may be unique and may depend upon the particular project, university, region, and personal preferences of decision makers. Thus, consideration of these parameters and characteristics only has merit when making decisions in the dynamics of change of these parameters. For this purpose statistical information is needed that characterizes the competencies of the research organization (university) inquestion, needs of partner organizations, governmental and societal requirements, and science and technology prospects. After determining the promising research areas it’s time to look at particular projects, which in turn are also characterized by various parameters dependent upon their objectives. Considering the values of these parameters in their dynamics allows control of project parameters in the course of its execution. This in turn allows prediction of negative situations and alleviation of such by setting the target values of parameters and using best practices and standardization of management processes to achieve those values.

Habitat preferences, fork lengths and isotopic ratios of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) in and around Lake Hazen, Ellesmere Island

Owing to limited knowledge of the habitat use and diet of juvenile Arctic charr from the High Arctic, particularly young-of-the-year (YOY), we assembled data obtained from samples taken in and around Lake Hazen, Nunavut, Canada, to assess juvenile habitat use and feeding. Juvenile charr demonstrated a preference for stream environments, particularly those fed by warm upstream ponds. Charr occupying both stream and nearshore lake habitats were found to feed similarly, with chironomids occurring most frequently in diets. Some older stream-dwelling charr preyed on smaller, younger Arctic charr. Preferred stream occupancy is likely mediated by physical barriers created mainly by water velocity, and by distance from the lake, lake-ice dynamics, low water depth, and turbidity. Water velocities resulted in stream habitat segregation by size, with YOY mainly found in low-velocity pools and back eddies adjacent to stream banks, but not in water velocities >0.1 m/s. Greatest charr densities in streams were found in small, shallow, slow-flowing side channels, which are highly susceptible to drought. Under predicted climate change scenarios, streams fed by small ponds will be susceptible to intermittent flow conditions, which could result in increased competition among juvenile charr for the remaining stream habitats. In addition, glacier-fed streams are likely to experience increased flow conditions that will exacerbate physical barriers created by water velocity and further reduce the availability of preferred stream habitat.

Age models, iron intensity, magnetic susceptibility records and dry bulk density of sediment cores from around the Canary Islands

A set of 43 sediment cores from around the Canary Islands is used to characterise this region, which intersects meridional climatic regimes and zonal productivity gradients in a high spatial resolution. Using rapid and nondestructive core logging techniques we carried out Fe intensity and magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurements and created a stack on the basis of five stratigraphic reference cores, for which a stratigraphic age model was available from d18O and 14C analyses on planktonic foraminifera. By correlation of the stack with the Fe and MS records of the other cores, we were able to develop age depth models at all investigated sites of the region. We present the bulk sediment accumulation rates (AR) of the Canary Islands region as an indicator of shifts in the upwelling-influenced areas for the Holocene (0-12 ky), the deglaciation (12-18 ky) and the last glacial (18-40 ky). General observations are an enhanced productivity during glacial times with highest values during the deglaciation. The main differences between the analysed time intervals we interpret as result of the sea-level effects, changes in the extent of high productivity areas, and current intensity.

Minimum, maximum and mean annual ground temperatures in permafrost around Abisko ANS between 2008-2009

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007-2008), new boreholes were drilled within the 'Back to the Future' (BTF) and 'Thermal State of Permafrost' (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from -0.16 to -0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.

Archaeological sites in China during the Neolithic and Bronze Age

A total of 51,074 archaeological sites from the early Neolithic to the early Iron Age (c. 8000-500 BC), with a spatial extent covering most regions of China (c. 73-131°E and c. 20-53°N), were analysed over space and time in this study. Site maps of 25 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, published in the series 'Atlas of Chinese Cultural Relics', were used to extract, digitalise and correlate its archaeological data. The data were, in turn, entered into a database using a self-developed mapping software that makes the data, in a dynamic way, analysable as a contribution to various scientific questions, such as population growth and migrations, spread of agriculture and changes in subsistence strategies. The results clearly show asynchronous patterns of changes between the northern and southern parts of China (i.e. north and south of the Yangtze River, respectively) but also within these macro-regions. In the northern part of China (i.e. along the Yellow River and its tributaries and in the Xiliao River basin), the first noticeable increase in the concentration of Neolithic sites occurred between c. 5000 and 4000 BC; however, highest site concentrations were reached between c. 2000 and 500 BC. Our analysis shows a radical north-eastern shift of high site-density clusters (over 50 sites per 100 * 100 km grid cell) from the Wei and middle/lower Yellow Rivers to the Liao River system sometime between 2350 BC and 1750 BC. This shift is hypothetically discussed in the context of the incorporation of West Asian domesticated animals and plants into the existing northern Chinese agricultural system. In the southern part of China, archaeological sites do not show a noticeable increase in the absolute number of sites until after c. 1500 BC, reaching a maximum around 1000 BC.

The effect of right-turn-on-red on pedestrian and bicycle accidents. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Daytime running lights and turn signal masking. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Efficacy of red and yellow turn arrows in traffic signals. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

Voyages round the world, from the death of Captain Cook to the present time : including remarks on the social condition of the inhabitants in the recently discovered countries, their progress in the arts, and more especially their advancement in religious knowledge.

Includes index.

A general history and collection of voyages and travels, arranged in systematic order: forming a complete history of the origin and progress of navigation, discovery, and commerce, by sea and land, from the earliest ages to the present time.

"Catalogue of voyages and travels": v. 18, p. [529]-628.