Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

An inter-regional assessment of concentrations and δ13C values of methane and dissolved inorganic carbon in small European lakes

Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide emissions from lakes are relevant for assessing the greenhouse gas output of wetlands. However, only few standardized datasets describe concentrations of these gases in lakes across different geographical regions. We studied concentrations and stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of CH4 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in 32 small lakes from Finland, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland in late summer. Higher concentrations and δ13C values of DIC were observed in calcareous lakes than in lakes on non-calcareous areas. In stratified lakes, δ13C values of DIC were generally lower in the hypolimnion due to the degradation of organic matter (OM). Unexpectedly, increased δ13C values of DIC were registered above the sediment in several lakes. This may reflect carbonate dissolution in calcareous lakes or methanogenesis in deepwater layers or in the sediments. Surface water CH4 concentrations were generally higher in western and central European lakes than in Fennoscandian lakes, possibly due to higher CH4 production in the littoral sediments and lateral transport, whereas CH4 concentrations in the hypolimnion did not differ significantly between the regions. The δ13C values of CH4 in the sediment suggest that δ13C values of biogenic CH4 are not necessarily linked to δ13C values of sedimentary OM but may be strongly influenced by OM quality and methanogenic pathway. Our study suggests that CH4 and DIC cycling in small lakes differ between geographical regions and that this should be taken into account when regional studies on greenhouse gas emissions are upscaled to inter-regional scales.

Migration and population expansion of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus since 15000 years in and across the Alps, based on pollen-percentage threshold values

Aims: The aim of this study is to explore the migration (colonization of new areas) and subsequent population expansion (within an area) since 15 ka cal BP of Abies, Fagus, Picea, and Quercus into and through the Alps solely on the basis of high-quality pollen data. Methods: Chronologies of 101 pollen sequences are improved or created. Data from the area delimited by 45.5–48.1°N and 6–14°E are summarized in three ways: (1) in a selection of pollen-percentage threshold maps (thresholds 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, and 32% of land pollen); (2) in graphic summaries of 250-year time slices and geographic segments (lengthwise and transverse in relation to the main axis of the Alps) as pollen-percentage curves, pollen-percentage difference curves, and pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP graphed against both the length and the transverse Alpine axes; and (3) in tables showing statistical relationships of either pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP or pollen expansion durations (=time lapse between different pollen-percentage threshold ages cal BP) with latitude, longitude, and elevation; to establish these relationships we used both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression after stepwise-forward selection. Results: The statistical results indicate that (a) the use of pollen-percentage thresholds between 0.5% and 8% yield mostly similar directions of tree migration, so the method is fairly robust, (b) Abies migrated northward, Fagus southward, Picea westward, and Quercus northward; more detail does not emerge due to an extreme scarcity of high-quality data especially along the southern foothills of the Alps and in the eastern Alps. This scarcity allows the reconstruction of one immigration route only of Abies into the southern Alps. The speed of population expansion (following arrival) of Abies increased and of Picea decreased during the Holocene, of Fagus it decreased especially during the later Holocene, and of Quercus it increased especially at the start of the Holocene.

Reference values for digital X-ray radiogrammetry parameters in children and adolescents in comparison to estimates in patients with distal radius fractures.

The first objective of this study was to determine normative digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) values, based on original digital images, in a pediatric population (aged 6-18 years). The second aim was to compare these reference data with patients suffering from distal radius fractures, whereas both cohorts originated from the same geographical region and were evaluated using the same technical parameters as well as inclusion and exclusion criteria. DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI of the metacarpal bones II-IV were assessed on standardized digital hand radiographs, without printing or scanning procedures. DXR parameters were estimated separately by gender and among six age groups; values in the fracture group were compared to age- and gender-matched normative data using Student's t tests and Z scores. In the reference cohort (150 boys, 138 girls), gender differences were found in bone mineral density (DXR-BMD), with higher values for girls from 11 to 14 years and for boys from 15 to 18 years (p < 0.05). Girls had higher normative metacarpal index (DXR-MCI) values than boys, with significant differences at 11-14 years (p < 0.05). In the case-control investigation, the fracture group (95 boys, 69 girls) presented lower DXR-BMD at 15-18 years in boys and 13-16 years in girls vs. the reference cohort (p < 0.05); DXR-MCI was lower at 11-18 years in boys and 11-16 years in girls (p < 0.05). Mean Z scores in the fracture group for DXR-BMD were -0.42 (boys) and -0.46 (girls), and for DXR-MCI were -0.51 (boys) and -0.53 (girls). These findings indicate that the fully digital DXR technique can be accurately applied in pediatric populations ≥ 6 years of age. The lower DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI values in the fracture group suggest promising early identification of individuals with increased fracture risk, without the need for additional radiation exposure, enabling the initiation of prevention strategies to possibly reduce the incidence of osteoporosis later in life.

Normal values for pancreatic stone protein in different age groups.

BACKGROUND Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) has been identified as a promising sepsis marker in adults, children and neonates. However, data on population-based reference values are lacking. This study aimed to establish age-specific reference values for PSP. METHODS PSP was determined using a specific ELISA. PSP serum concentrations were determined in 372 healthy subjects including 217 neonates, 94 infants and children up to 16 years, and 61 adults. The adjacent categories method was used to determine which age categories had significantly different PSP concentrations. RESULTS PSP circulating levels were not gender-dependent and ranged from 1.0 to 99.4 ng/ml with a median of 9.2 ng/ml. PSP increased significantly between the age categories, from a median of 2.6 ng/ml in very preterm newborns, to 6.3 ng/ml in term newborns, to 16.1 ng/ml in older children (p < 0.001). PSP levels were higher on postnatal day three compared to levels measured immediately post delivery (p < 0.001). Paired umbilical artery and umbilical vein samples were strongly correlated (p < 0.001). Simultaneously obtained capillary heel-prick versus venous samples showed a good level of agreement for PSP (Rho 0.89, bias 19 %). CONCLUSIONS This study provides age-specific normal values that may be used to define cut-offs for future trials on PSP. We demonstrate an age-dependent increase of PSP from birth to childhood.

Joining the dots - understanding the complex interplay between the values we place on wildlife, biodiversity conservation, human and animal health: A review.

The value of wildlife has long been ignored or under-rated. However, growing concerns about biodiversity loss and emerging diseases of wildlife origin have enhanced debates about the importance of wildlife. Wildlife-related diseases are viewed through these debates as a potential threat to wildlife conservation and domestic animal and human health. This article provides an overview of the values we place on wildlife (positive: socio-cultural, nutritional, economic, ecological; and negative: damages, health issues) and of the significance of diseases for biodiversity conservation. It shows that the values of wildlife, the emergence of wildlife diseases and biodiversity conservation are closely linked. The article also illustrates why investigations into wildlife diseases are now recognized as an integral part of global health issues. The modern One Health concept requires multi-disciplinary research groups including veterinarians, human physicians, ecologists and other scientists collaborating towards a common goal: prevention of disease emergence and preservation of ecosystems, both of which are essential to protect human life and well-being.

A Question of Title: Property Rights and Asset Values

This paper examines the impact of land title systems on property values. The predominant system in the U.S., the recording system, awards title to claimants over current possessors, whereas the Torrens registration system awards title to the current owner. In theory, the registration system maximizes property value, all else equal, but in practice, the systems differ depending on the risk of a claim and administrative costs. A natural experiment in Cook County, Illinois, where both systems have existed since 1897, allows a test of the theory. The results, based on commercial and industrial properties, reveal that parcels tend to self-select into the two systems based on the predictions of the theory.

Property Condition Disclosure Law: Does 'Seller Tell All' Matter in Property Values?

At the time when at least two-thirds of the US states have already mandated some form of seller's property condition disclosure statement and there is a movement in this direction nationally, this paper examines the impact of seller's property condition disclosure law on the residential real estate values, the information asymmetry in housing transactions and shift of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers, and attempts to ascertain the factors that lead to adoption of the disclosur law. The analytical structure employs parametric panel data models, semi-parametric propensity score matching models, and an event study framework using a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004. Exploiting the MSA level variation in house prices, the study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller's property condition disclosure statement to the buyer.

Sentencing Guidelines, Judicial Discretion, And Social Values

This paper studies the institutional structure of criminal sentencing, focusing on the interaction between legislatures, which set sentencing ranges ex ante, and judges, who choose actual sentences from within those ranges ex post. The key question concerns the optimal degree of judicial discretion, given the sequential nature of the process and the possibly divergent interests of legislatures and judges regarding the social function of criminal punishment. The enactment of sentencing reform in the 1970s and 80s provides both a context for the model and an opportunity to evaluate its conclusions.

Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of School District Performance and Demographic Composition on Property Values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and explanatory variables that include school district performance and demographic attributes, such as racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic has a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Evidence is also found to suggest that student test scores have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.

Motivational interviewing and feedback for college drinkers: Handling missing values with complete case analysis and multiple imputation

Objective: In this secondary data analysis, three statistical methodologies were implemented to handle cases with missing data in a motivational interviewing and feedback study. The aim was to evaluate the impact that these methodologies have on the data analysis. ^ Methods: We first evaluated whether the assumption of missing completely at random held for this study. We then proceeded to conduct a secondary data analysis using a mixed linear model to handle missing data with three methodologies (a) complete case analysis, (b) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, and the interaction of time and treatment, and (c) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, the interaction of time and treatment, and additional covariates (e.g., age, gender, smoke, years in school, marital status, housing, race/ethnicity, and if participants play on athletic team). Several comparisons were conducted including the following ones: 1) the motivation interviewing with feedback group (MIF) vs. the assessment only group (AO), the motivation interviewing group (MIO) vs. AO, and the intervention of the feedback only group (FBO) vs. AO, 2) MIF vs. FBO, and 3) MIF vs. MIO.^ Results: We first evaluated the patterns of missingness in this study, which indicated that about 13% of participants showed monotone missing patterns, and about 3.5% showed non-monotone missing patterns. Then we evaluated the assumption of missing completely at random by Little's missing completely at random (MCAR) test, in which the Chi-Square test statistic was 167.8 with 125 degrees of freedom, and its associated p-value was p=0.006, which indicated that the data could not be assumed to be missing completely at random. After that, we compared if the three different strategies reached the same results. For the comparison between MIF and AO as well as the comparison between MIF and FBO, only the multiple imputation with additional covariates by uncongenial and congenial models reached different results. For the comparison between MIF and MIO, all the methodologies for handling missing values obtained different results. ^ Discussions: The study indicated that, first, missingness was crucial in this study. Second, to understand the assumptions of the model was important since we could not identify if the data were missing at random or missing not at random. Therefore, future researches should focus on exploring more sensitivity analyses under missing not at random assumption.^

87Sr/86Sr ratios, Sr and Rb concentrations and stable oxygen isotope values for some basalts from ODP Hole 504B (Table 1)

Seventeen whole-rock samples, generally taken at 25-50 m intervals from 5 to 560 m sub-basement in Hole 504B, drilled in 6.2 m.y. old crust, were analysed for 87Sr/86Sr ratios, Sr and Rb concentrations, and 18O/16O ratios. Sr isotope ratios for 8 samples from the upper 260 m of the hole range from 0.70287 to 0.70377, with a mean of 0.70320. In the 330-560 m interval, 5 samples have a restricted range of 0.70255-0.70279, with a mean of 0.70266, the average value for fresh mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB). In the 260-330 m interval, approximately intermediate Sr isotopic ratios are found. Delta18O values (?) range from 6.4 to 7.8 in the upper 260 m, 6.2-6.4 in the 270-320 m interval, and 5.8-6.2 in the 320-560 m interval. The values in the upper 260 m are typical for basalts which have undergone low-temperature seawater alteration, whereas the values for the 320-560 m interval correspond to MORB which have experienced essentially no oxygen isotopic alteration. The higher 87Sr/86Sr and 18O/16O ratios in the upper part of the hole can be interpreted as the result of a greater overall water/rock ratio in the upper part of the Hole 504B crust than in the lower part. Interaction of basalt with seawater (87Sr/86Sr = 0.7091) increased basalt 87Sr/86Sr ratios and produced smectitic alteration products which raised whole-rock delta18O values. Seawater circulation in the lower basalts may have been partly restricted by the greater number of relatively impermeable massive lava flows below about 230 m sub-basement. These flows may have helped to seal off lower basalts from through-flowing seawater.

Experimental growth characteristics, cell size, yessotoxin values and bioassay data of Protoceratium reticulatum (Dinophyceae)

Harmful algal blooms are mainly caused by marine dinoflagellates and are known to produce potent toxins that may affect the ecosystem, human activities and health. Such events have increased in frequency and intensity worldwide in the past decades. Numerous processes involved in Global Change are amplified in the Arctic, but little is known about species specific responses of arctic dinoflagellates. The aim of this work was to perform an exhaustive morphological, phylogenetical and toxinological characterization of Greenland Protoceratium reticulatum and, in addition, to test the effect of temperature on growth and production of bioactive secondary metabolites. Seven clonal isolates, the first isolates of P. reticulatum available from arctic waters, were phylogenetically characterized by analysis of the LSU rDNA. Six isolates were further characterized morphologically and were shown to produce both yessotoxins (YTX) and lytic compounds, representing the first report of allelochemical activity in P. reticulatum. As shown for one of the isolates, growth was strongly affected by temperature with a maximum growth rate at 15 °C, a significant but slow growth at 1 °C, and cell death at 25 °C, suggesting an adaptation of P. reticulatum to temperate waters. Temperature had no major effect on total YTX cell quota or lytic activity but both were affected by the growth phase with a significant increase at stationary phase. A comparison of six isolates at a fixed temperature of 10 °C showed high intraspecific variability for all three physiological parameters tested. Growth rate varied from 0.06 to 0.19 per day, and total YTX concentration ranged from 0.3 to 15.0 pg YTX/cell and from 0.5 to 31.0 pg YTX/cell at exponential and stationary phase, respectively. All six isolates performed lytic activity; however, for two isolates lytic activity was only detectable at higher cell densities in stationary phase.