Big Decisions and Sparse Data: Adapting Scientific Publishing to the Needs of Practical Conservation

The biggest challenge in conservation biology is breaking down the gap between research and practical management. A major obstacle is the fact that many researchers are unwilling to tackle projects likely to produce sparse or messy data because the results would be difficult to publish in refereed journals. The obvious solution to sparse data is to build up results from multiple studies. Consequently, we suggest that there needs to be greater emphasis in conservation biology on publishing papers that can be built on by subsequent research rather than on papers that produce clear results individually. This building approach requires: (1) a stronger theoretical framework, in which researchers attempt to anticipate models that will be relevant in future studies and incorporate expected differences among studies into those models; (2) use of modern methods for model selection and multi-model inference, and publication of parameter estimates under a range of plausible models; (3) explicit incorporation of prior information into each case study; and (4) planning management treatments in an adaptive framework that considers treatments applied in other studies. We encourage journals to publish papers that promote this building approach rather than expecting papers to conform to traditional standards of rigor as stand-alone papers, and believe that this shift in publishing philosophy would better encourage researchers to tackle the most urgent conservation problems.

Costs of Reproduction in Breeding Female Mallards: Predation Risk during Incubation Drives Annual Mortality

The effort expended on reproduction may entail future costs, such as reduced survival or fecundity, and these costs can have an important influence on life-history optimization. For birds with precocial offspring, hypothesized costs of reproduction have typically emphasized nutritional and energetic investments in egg formation and incubation. We measured seasonal survival of 3856 radio-marked female Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from arrival on the breeding grounds through brood-rearing or cessation of breeding. There was a 2.5-fold direct increase in mortality risk associated with incubating nests in terrestrial habitats, whereas during brood-rearing when breeding females occupy aquatic habitats, mortality risk reached seasonal lows. Mortality risk also varied with calendar date and was highest during periods when large numbers of Mallards were nesting, suggesting that prey-switching behaviors by common predators may exacerbate risks to adults in all breeding stages. Although prior investments in egg laying and incubation affected mortality risk, most relationships were not consistent with the cost of reproduction hypothesis; birds with extensive prior investments in egg production or incubation typically survived better, suggesting that variation in individual quality drove both relationships. We conclude that for breeding female Mallards, the primary cost of reproduction is a fixed cost associated with placing oneself at risk to predators while incubating nests in terrestrial habitats.

Language processing with dynamic fields

We construct a mapping from complex recursive linguistic data structures to spherical wave functions using Smolensky's filler/role bindings and tensor product representations. Syntactic language processing is then described by the transient evolution of these spherical patterns whose amplitudes are governed by nonlinear order parameter equations. Implications of the model in terms of brain wave dynamics are indicated.

Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?

A new field of study, “decadal prediction,” is emerging in climate science. Decadal prediction lies between seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 yr. Numerous assessments of climate information user needs have identified this time scale as being important to infrastructure planners, water resource managers, and many others. It is central to the information portfolio required to adapt effectively to and through climatic changes. At least three factors influence time-evolving regional climate at the decadal time scale: 1) climate change commitment (further warming as the coupled climate system comes into adjustment with increases of greenhouse gases that have already occurred), 2) external forcing, particularly from future increases of greenhouse gases and recovery of the ozone hole, and 3) internally generated variability. Some decadal prediction skill has been demonstrated to arise from the first two of these factors, and there is evidence that initialized coupled climate models can capture mechanisms of internally generated decadal climate variations, thus increasing predictive skill globally and particularly regionally. Several methods have been proposed for initializing global coupled climate models for decadal predictions, all of which involve global time-evolving three-dimensional ocean data, including temperature and salinity. An experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described in this paper and has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 yr.

Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability.

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: a statistical analysis of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales has recorded information on the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. It is a valuable source of information about the soil in the context of monitoring for sustainable agricultural development. Changes in soil nutrient status and pH were examined over the period 1971-2001. Several methods of statistical analysis were applied to data from the surveys during this period. The main focus here is on the data for 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001. The results of examining change over time in general show that levels of potassium in the soil have increased, those of magnesium have remained fairly constant, those of phosphorus have declined and pH has changed little. Future sampling needs have been assessed in the context of monitoring, to determine the mean at a given level of confidence and tolerable error and to detect change in the mean over time at these same levels over periods of 5 and 10 years. The results of a non-hierarchical multivariate classification suggest that England and Wales could be stratified to optimize future sampling and analysis. To monitor soil quality and health more generally than for agriculture, more of the country should be sampled and a wider range of properties recorded.

Comprehension of wh-questions in a case of mixed dementia

We investigated processing of wh-questions and declarative sentences with differing syntactic complexity in a case of mixed dementia (FA). FA was impaired in her ability to understand syntactically complex declarative sentences and syntactically complex wh-questions beginning with which but not complex who questions. This profile, novel in dementia, is similar to that reported for people with agrammatic aphasia and discerns a ‘‘fault line’’ of the language system along a syntactic/semantic parameter