Predictors of sickness absence in patients with a new episode of low back pain in primary care

This study examines predictors of sickness absence in patients presenting to a health practitioner with acute/ subacute low back pain (LBP). Aims of this study were to identify baseline-variables that detect patients with a new LBP episode at risk of sickness absence and to identify prognostic models for sickness absence at different time points after initial presentation. Prospective cohort study investigating 310 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a new episode of LBP at baseline, three-, six-, twelve-week and six-month follow-up, addressing work-related, psychological and biomedical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify baseline-predictors of sickness absence at different time points. Prognostic models comprised 'job control', 'depression' and 'functional limitation' as predictive baseline-factors of sickness absence at three and six-week follow-up with 'job control' being the best single predictor (OR 0.47; 95%CI 0.26-0.87). The six-week model explained 47% of variance of sickness absence at six-week follow-up (p<0.001). The prediction of sickness absence beyond six-weeks is limited, and health practitioners should re-assess patients at six weeks, especially if they have previously been identified as at risk of sickness absence. This would allow timely intervention with measures designed to reduce the likelihood of prolonged sickness absence.

"In vivo" imaging of atherosclerosis

Atherosclerosis is a systemic and multifocal disease, which starts early in life, and that usually takes decades before overt disease eventually appears as a consequence of progressive obstruction or abrupt thrombotic occlusion. This silent course makes necessary to develop predictors of disease long before symptomatic lesions develop. Besides several classical risk factors and new emerging humoral risk predictors, imaging may constitute a formidable diagnostic and prognostic tool in order to identify presence, extension, progression (or regression) of disease as well as vulnerability of atherosclerotic lesions. This review summarizes the rapidly growing clinical and research field in imaging atherosclerosis from different perspectives opening important opportunities for timely detection and treatment of atherosclerosis.

Carbon pools and poverty peaks in Lao PDR

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhancing forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) is heavily promoted in Laos. REDD+ is often perceived as an opportunity to jointly address climate change and poverty and, therefore, could come timely for Laos to combine its prominent national target of poverty eradication with global climate mitigation efforts. Countrywide planning of the right approaches to REDD+ combined with poverty alleviation requires knowledge of the spatial combination of poverty and carbon stocks at the national level. This study combined spatial information on carbon stored in vegetation and on poverty and created carbon-poverty typologies for the whole country at the village level. We found that 11% of the villages of Laos have high to very high average village-level carbon stock densities and a predominantly poor population. These villages cover 20% of the territory and are characterized by low population density. Shifting cultivation areas in the northwestern parts of the country have a higher carbon mitigation potential than areas in the central and eastern highlands due to a more favorable climate. Finally, we found that in Laos the majority (58%) of poor people live in areas with low carbon stock densities without major potential to store carbon. Accordingly, REDD+ cannot be considered a core instrument for poverty alleviation. The carbon-poverty typologies presented here provide answers to basic questions related to planning and managing of REDD+. They could serve as a starting point for the design of systems to monitor both socioeconomic and environmental development at the national level.

A case report of Clarkson's disease: If you don't know it, you'll miss it

The systemic capillary leak syndrome (SCLS), also known as Clarkson's disease, is a rare disorder characterized by paroxysmal capillary hyperpermeability with a shift of plasma fluid from the intravascular to the interstitial space. A 35-year-old previously healthy woman was admitted with rapidly developing hypovolemic shock syndrome, rhabdomyolysis, and diffuse edema. Laboratory analysis revealed a severe hemoconcentration, renal insufficiency, and paraproteinemia. After exclusion of infection, allergy, burning or drug-induced conditions, the clinical presentation was consistent with the diagnosis of SCLS. Though this is a rare entity, the substantial morbidity and mortality associated with it necessitate the physician's awareness in order to provide timely therapy. This report is meant to enhance awareness of SCLS.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

[Femoroacetabular impingement: trigger for the development of coxarthrosis]

Femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) is frequent; the estimated prevalence ranges between 10 and 15%. Our 10-years experience strongly suggests that FAI leads to osteoarthritis. Isolated acetabular or femoral abnormalities are rare, even though in women acetabular and in men femoral abnormalities predominate. Normal radiographs do not exclude the presence of FAI. Symptoms are related to the degree of deformity and occur earlier in the presence of activities requiring high levels of motion. The majority of patients with FAI are under the age of 40 years.In contrast to impingement in total hip replacement, the natural hip is under much higher constraint, not allowing to escape from impingement-induced shear forces by subluxation or complete dislocation. FAI-induced shear forces due to an aspherical femoral head/neck (cam type) are therefore high, causing outside-in damage with cleavage lesions of the acetabular cartilage by forced flexion and internal rotation. The cartilage of the femoral head remains initially intact, which cannot be explained by the classic concept of osteoarthritis. After the femoral head has migrated into the acetabular cartilage defect, vertical forces contribute to the further course of osteoarthritis. Tears between the labrum and cartilage, as seen by MRI, are not avulsions of the labrum from the cartilage but rather outside-in avulsions of the cartilage from the labrum. In acetabular overcoverage (pincer type) the labrum is the first structure to fail and acetabular cartilage damage develops thereafter.The treatment of FAI in patients under the age of 40 years is aimed at joint preservation. The clinical result is worse in the presence of significant cartilage damage. Therefore, early appreciation of FAI and timely therapeutic intervention as well as professional and athletic adjustment are important if osteoarthritis is to be prevented.

Risk assessment and preventive measures

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed in the early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patient should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. Particularly, patients with more than four dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors (such as holding the drink in the mouth) are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids (reflux, vomiting, alcohol abuse, etc.) is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, optimization of fluoride regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with a low abrasive toothpaste. The frequent use of fluoride gel and fluoride solution in addition to fluoride toothpaste offers the opportunity to reduce somewhat abrasion of tooth substance. It is also advisable to avoid abrasive tooth cleaning and whitening products, since they may remove the pellicle and may render teeth more susceptible to erosion. Since erosion, attrition and abrasion often occur simultaneously all causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies.

Health risk appraisal in older people 2: the implications for clinicians and commissioners of social isolation risk in older people

BACKGROUND: Social isolation is associated with poorer health, and is seen by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major issues facing the industrialised world. AIM: To explore the significance of social isolation in the older population for GPs and for service commissioners. DESIGN OF STUDY: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal. SETTING: A total of 2641 community-dwelling, non-disabled people aged 65 years and over in suburban London. METHOD: Demographic details, social network and risk for social isolation based on the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale, measures of depressed mood, memory problems, numbers of chronic conditions, medication use, functional ability, self-reported use of medical services. RESULTS: More than 15% of the older age group were at risk of social isolation, and this risk increased with advancing age. In bivariate analyses risk of social isolation was associated with older age, education up to 16 years only, depressed mood and impaired memory, perceived fair or poor health, perceived difficulty with both basic and instrumental activities of daily living, diminishing functional ability, and fear of falling. Despite poorer health status, those at risk of social isolation did not appear to make greater use of medical services, nor were they at greater risk of hospital admission. Half of those who scored as at risk of social isolation lived with others. Multivariate analysis showed significant independent associations between risk of social isolation and depressed mood and living alone, and weak associations with male sex, impaired memory and perceived poor health. CONCLUSION: The risk of social isolation is elevated in older men, older persons who live alone, persons with mood or cognitive problems, but is not associated with greater use of services. These findings would not support population screening for individuals at risk of social isolation with a view to averting service use by timely intervention. Awareness of social isolation should trigger further assessment, and consideration of interventions to alleviate social isolation, treat depression or ameliorate cognitive impairment.

What can be gained from comprehensive disaggregate surveillance? The Avon Surveillance System for Sexually Transmitted Infections

OBJECTIVE: To describe a new disaggregate surveillance system covering key diagnosed sexually transmitted infections in a UK locality. METHODS: The Avon System for Surveillance of Sexually Transmitted Infections (ASSIST) collects computerised person- and episode-based information about laboratory-diagnosed sexually transmitted infections from genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics, the Avon Brook Clinic, and the Health Protection Agency and trust laboratories in primary care trusts in Avon. The features of the system are illustrated here, by describing chlamydia-testing patterns according to the source of test, age and sex, and by mapping the distribution of chlamydia across Bristol, UK. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2004, there were 821,685 records of tests for sexually transmitted infections, with 23,542 positive results. The proportion of tests and positive results for chlamydia and gonorrhoea sent from general practice increased over time. Most chlamydia tests in both GUM and non-specialist settings were performed on women aged >25 years, but positivity rates were highest in women aged <25 years. The positivity rate remained stable between 2000 and 2004. Including data from all diagnostic settings, chlamydia rates were about twice as high as those estimated only from genitourinary clinic cases. CONCLUSIONS: The ASSIST model could be a promising new tool for planning and measuring sexual health services in England if it can become sustainable and provide more timely data using fewer resources. Collecting denominator data and including infections diagnosed in primary care are essential for meaningful surveillance.

Clinical relevance of coronary angiography at the time of percutaneous closure of a patent foramen ovale

BACKGROUND: The value of incidental coronary angiography during percutaneous shunt closure to screen for asymptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown. METHODS: On the occasion of percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO), incidental coronary angiography routinely offered to men >40 and women >50 years, or younger patients with particular risk patterns, was performed in 575 patients (64% men, mean age 55 +/- 10 years, mean 1.5 +/- 1.1 cardiovascular risk factors) without overt history, signs, or symptoms of CAD. RESULTS: CAD was found in 164 patients (29%); 53 (9%) had >or=50% diameter stenoses. Thirty patients (5%) had one-vessel, 13 (2%) two-vessel, and 10 (2%) three-vessel disease. Patients with CAD (n = 164) were older (60 +/- 9 vs. 53 +/- 10 years; P < 0.0001), more frequently male (76% vs. 59%; P = 0.0002), and had a higher body mass index (26.5 +/- 4.0 vs. 25.4 +/- 4.6; P = 0.006) and more cardiovascular risk factors (2.0 +/- 1.1 vs. 1.2 +/- 1.0; P < 0.0001). There were six procedural complications (1%). Two were unequivocally related to coronary angiography: one minor stroke (diplopia), and one iatrogenic dissection of the right coronary ostium requiring stenting. Furthermore, four arteriovenous fistulae at the puncture site requiring elective surgical closure were possibly related to coronary angiography. Forty-five patients (8% of total) underwent percutaneous (n = 43) or surgical (n = 2) revascularization. CONCLUSIONS: In selected asymptomatic patients referred for percutaneous PFO closure, incidental coronary angiography discloses a rather high prevalence of clinically unsuspected CAD. These findings are relevant not only for timely revascularization but also for maintenance of long-term antiplatelet therapy beyond the few months recommended after PFO closure.

Memory resource balancing for virtualized computing

Virtualization has become a common abstraction layer in modern data centers. By multiplexing hardware resources into multiple virtual machines (VMs) and thus enabling several operating systems to run on the same physical platform simultaneously, it can effectively reduce power consumption and building size or improve security by isolating VMs. In a virtualized system, memory resource management plays a critical role in achieving high resource utilization and performance. Insufficient memory allocation to a VM will degrade its performance dramatically. On the contrary, over-allocation causes waste of memory resources. Meanwhile, a VM’s memory demand may vary significantly. As a result, effective memory resource management calls for a dynamic memory balancer, which, ideally, can adjust memory allocation in a timely manner for each VM based on their current memory demand and thus achieve the best memory utilization and the optimal overall performance. In order to estimate the memory demand of each VM and to arbitrate possible memory resource contention, a widely proposed approach is to construct an LRU-based miss ratio curve (MRC), which provides not only the current working set size (WSS) but also the correlation between performance and the target memory allocation size. Unfortunately, the cost of constructing an MRC is nontrivial. In this dissertation, we first present a low overhead LRU-based memory demand tracking scheme, which includes three orthogonal optimizations: AVL-based LRU organization, dynamic hot set sizing and intermittent memory tracking. Our evaluation results show that, for the whole SPEC CPU 2006 benchmark suite, after applying the three optimizing techniques, the mean overhead of MRC construction is lowered from 173% to only 2%. Based on current WSS, we then predict its trend in the near future and take different strategies for different prediction results. When there is a sufficient amount of physical memory on the host, it locally balances its memory resource for the VMs. Once the local memory resource is insufficient and the memory pressure is predicted to sustain for a sufficiently long time, a relatively expensive solution, VM live migration, is used to move one or more VMs from the hot host to other host(s). Finally, for transient memory pressure, a remote cache is used to alleviate the temporary performance penalty. Our experimental results show that this design achieves 49% center-wide speedup.

Land use/cover change using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems : Pic Macaya National Park, Haiti

A post classification change detection technique based on a hybrid classification approach (unsupervised and supervised) was applied to Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+), and ASTER images acquired in 1987, 2000 and 2004 respectively to map land use/cover changes in the Pic Macaya National Park in the southern region of Haiti. Each image was classified individually into six land use/cover classes: built-up, agriculture, herbaceous, open pine forest, mixed forest, and barren land using unsupervised ISODATA and maximum likelihood supervised classifiers with the aid of field collected ground truth data collected in the field. Ground truth information, collected in the field in December 2007, and including equalized stratified random points which were visual interpreted were used to assess the accuracy of the classification results. The overall accuracy of the land classification for each image was respectively: 1987 (82%), 2000 (82%), 2004 (87%). A post classification change detection technique was used to produce change images for 1987 to 2000, 1987 to 2004, and 2000 to 2004. It was found that significant changes in the land use/cover occurred over the 17- year period. The results showed increases in built up (from 10% to 17%) and herbaceous (from 5% to 14%) areas between 1987 and 2004. The increase of herbaceous was mostly caused by the abandonment of exhausted agriculture lands. At the same time, open pine forest and mixed forest areas lost (75%) and (83%) of their area to other land use/cover types. Open pine forest (from 20% to 14%) and mixed forest (from18 to 12%) were transformed into agriculture area or barren land. This study illustrated the continuing deforestation, land degradation and soil erosion in the region, which in turn is leading to decrease in vegetative cover. The study also showed the importance of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to estimate timely changes in the land use/cover, and to evaluate their causes in order to design an ecological based management plan for the park.

Public-health and individual approaches to antiretroviral therapy: township South Africa and Switzerland compared

BACKGROUND: The provision of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource-limited settings follows a public health approach, which is characterised by a limited number of regimens and the standardisation of clinical and laboratory monitoring. In industrialized countries doctors prescribe from the full range of available antiretroviral drugs, supported by resistance testing and frequent laboratory monitoring. We compared virologic response, changes to first-line regimens, and mortality in HIV-infected patients starting HAART in South Africa and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and two HAART programmes in townships of Cape Town, South Africa. We included treatment-naïve patients aged 16 y or older who had started treatment with at least three drugs since 2001, and excluded intravenous drug users. Data from a total of 2,348 patients from South Africa and 1,016 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study were analysed. Median baseline CD4+ T cell counts were 80 cells/mul in South Africa and 204 cells/mul in Switzerland. In South Africa, patients started with one of four first-line regimens, which was subsequently changed in 514 patients (22%). In Switzerland, 36 first-line regimens were used initially, and these were changed in 539 patients (53%). In most patients HIV-1 RNA was suppressed to 500 copies/ml or less within one year: 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 95%-97%) in South Africa and 96% (94%-97%) in Switzerland, and 26% (22%-29%) and 27% (24%-31%), respectively, developed viral rebound within two years. Mortality was higher in South Africa than in Switzerland during the first months of HAART: adjusted hazard ratios were 5.90 (95% CI 1.81-19.2) during months 1-3 and 1.77 (0.90-3.50) during months 4-24. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the highly individualised approach in Switzerland, programmatic HAART in South Africa resulted in similar virologic outcomes, with relatively few changes to initial regimens. Further innovation and resources are required in South Africa to both achieve more timely access to HAART and improve the prognosis of patients who start HAART with advanced disease.

Antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings 1996 to 2006: patient characteristics, treatment regimens and monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America

OBJECTIVES: To describe temporal trends in baseline clinical characteristics, initial treatment regimens and monitoring of patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We analysed data from 17 ART programmes in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Asia. Patients aged 16 years or older with documented date of start of highly active ART (HAART) were included. Data were analysed by calculating medians, interquartile ranges (IQR) and percentages by regions and time periods. Not all centres provided data for 2006 and 2005 and 2006 were therefore combined. RESULTS: A total of 36,715 patients who started ART 1996-2006 were included in the analysis. Patient numbers increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, and the number of initial regimens declined, to four and five, respectively, in 2005-2006. In South America 20 regimes were used in 2005-2006. A combination of 3TC/D4T/NVP was used for 56% of African patients and 42% of Asian patients; AZT/3TC/EFV was used in 33% of patients in South America. The median baseline CD4 count increased in recent years, to 122 cells/microl (IQR 53-194) in 2005-2006 in Africa, 134 cells/microl (IQR 72-191) in Asia, and 197 cells/microl (IQR 61-277) in South America, but 77%, 78% and 51%, respectively, started with <200 cells/microl in 2005-2006. In all regions baseline CD4 cell counts were higher in women than men: differences were 22cells/microl in Africa, 65 cells/microl in Asia and 10 cells/microl in South America. In 2005-2006 a viral load at 6 months was available in 21% of patients Africa, 8% of Asian patients and 73% of patients in South America. Corresponding figures for 6-month CD4 cell counts were 74%, 77% and 81%. CONCLUSIONS: The public health approach to providing ART proposed by the World Health Organization has been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Although CD4 cell counts at the start of ART have increased in recent years, most patients continue to start with counts well below the recommended threshold. Particular attention should be paid to more timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected men.

Meta-analysis in medical research: potentials and limitations

Meta-analysis, the statistical combination of results from several studies to produce a single estimate of a treatment effect or size of an association, continues to attract controversy. We illustrate and discuss the promises and limitations of meta-analysis. Meta-analysis of clinical trials can prevent delays in the introduction of effective treatments or lead to the timely identification of adverse effects. However, meta-analyses are liable to numerous biases, both at the level of the individual study and the selection of studies for inclusion in meta-analysis. The biases and confounding factors that threaten the validity of individual studies will also affect meta-analyses of observational studies. We argue that meta-analyses should only be performed within the framework of systematic reviews that have been prepared using methods that minimize bias and address the combinability of studies.