Econometric analysis of stuctural systems with permanent and transitory shocks

This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].

Fundamental solution and discrete random walk model for time-space fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider a time-space fractional diffusion equation of distributed order (TSFDEDO). The TSFDEDO is obtained from the standard advection-dispersion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative of order α∈(0,1], the first-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of orders β 1∈(0,1) and β 2∈(1,2], respectively. We derive the fundamental solution for the TSFDEDO with an initial condition (TSFDEDO-IC). The fundamental solution can be interpreted as a spatial probability density function evolving in time. We also investigate a discrete random walk model based on an explicit finite difference approximation for the TSFDEDO-IC.

Effects of switching time on output voltages of a multilevel inverter used in high frequency applications

Employing multilevel inverters is a proper solution to reduce harmonic content of output voltage and electromagnetic interference in high power electronic applications. In this paper, a new pulse width modulation method for multilevel inverters is proposed in which power devices’ on-off switching times have been considered. This method can be surveyed in order to analyse the effect of switching time on harmonic contents of output voltage in high frequency applications when a switching time is not negligible compared to a switching cycle. Fast Fourier transform calculation and analysis of output voltage waveforms and harmonic contents with regard to switching time variation are presented in this paper for a single phase (3, 5)-level inverters used in high voltage and high frequency converters. Mathematical analysis and MATLAB simulation results have been carried out to validate the proposed method.

Multilevel converters in renewable energy systems

In photovoltaic, fuel cells and storage batteries, the low output DC voltage should be boosted. Therefore, a step-up converter is necessary to boost the low DC voltage for the DC link voltage of the inverter. The main contribution of this chapter is to electrical energy conversion in renewable energy systems based on multilevel inverters. Different configuration of renewable energy systems based on power converters will be discussed in detail. Finally, a new single inductor Multi-Output Boost (MOB) converter is proposed, which is compatible with the diode-clamped configuration. Steady state and dynamic analyses have been carried out in order to show the validity of the proposed topology. Then the joint circuit of the proposed DC-DC converter with a three-level diode-clamped converter is presented in order to have a series regulated voltage at the DC link voltage of the diode-clamped inverter. MOB converter can boost the low input DC voltage of the renewable energy sources and at the same time adjust the voltage across each capacitor to the desired voltage levels, thereby solving the main problem associated with capacitor voltage imbalance in this type of multilevel converter.

Multi-objective mission flight planning in civil unmanned aerial systems

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as an ideal platform for a wide range of civil applications such as disaster monitoring, atmospheric observation and outback delivery. However, the operation of UAVs is currently restricted to specially segregated regions of airspace outside of the National Airspace System (NAS). Mission Flight Planning (MFP) is an integral part of UAV operation that addresses some of the requirements (such as safety and the rules of the air) of integrating UAVs in the NAS. Automated MFP is a key enabler for a number of UAV operating scenarios as it aids in increasing the level of onboard autonomy. For example, onboard MFP is required to ensure continued conformance with the NAS integration requirements when there is an outage in the communications link. MFP is a motion planning task concerned with finding a path between a designated start waypoint and goal waypoint. This path is described with a sequence of 4 Dimensional (4D) waypoints (three spatial and one time dimension) or equivalently with a sequence of trajectory segments (or tracks). It is necessary to consider the time dimension as the UAV operates in a dynamic environment. Existing methods for generic motion planning, UAV motion planning and general vehicle motion planning cannot adequately address the requirements of MFP. The flight plan needs to optimise for multiple decision objectives including mission safety objectives, the rules of the air and mission efficiency objectives. Online (in-flight) replanning capability is needed as the UAV operates in a large, dynamic and uncertain outdoor environment. This thesis derives a multi-objective 4D search algorithm entitled Multi- Step A* (MSA*) based on the seminal A* search algorithm. MSA* is proven to find the optimal (least cost) path given a variable successor operator (which enables arbitrary track angle and track velocity resolution). Furthermore, it is shown to be of comparable complexity to multi-objective, vector neighbourhood based A* (Vector A*, an extension of A*). A variable successor operator enables the imposition of a multi-resolution lattice structure on the search space (which results in fewer search nodes). Unlike cell decomposition based methods, soundness is guaranteed with multi-resolution MSA*. MSA* is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations to be computationally efficient. It is shown that multi-resolution, lattice based MSA* finds paths of equivalent cost (less than 0.5% difference) to Vector A* (the benchmark) in a third of the computation time (on average). This is the first contribution of the research. The second contribution is the discovery of the additive consistency property for planning with multiple decision objectives. Additive consistency ensures that the planner is not biased (which results in a suboptimal path) by ensuring that the cost of traversing a track using one step equals that of traversing the same track using multiple steps. MSA* mitigates uncertainty through online replanning, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and tolerance. Each trajectory segment is modeled with a cell sequence that completely encloses the trajectory segment. The tolerance, measured as the minimum distance between the track and cell boundaries, is the third major contribution. Even though MSA* is demonstrated for UAV MFP, it is extensible to other 4D vehicle motion planning applications. Finally, the research proposes a self-scheduling replanning architecture for MFP. This architecture replicates the decision strategies of human experts to meet the time constraints of online replanning. Based on a feedback loop, the proposed architecture switches between fast, near-optimal planning and optimal planning to minimise the need for hold manoeuvres. The derived MFP framework is original and shown, through extensive verification and validation, to satisfy the requirements of UAV MFP. As MFP is an enabling factor for operation of UAVs in the NAS, the presented work is both original and significant.

Robust real time multi-layer foreground segmentation

Many surveillance applications (object tracking, abandoned object detection) rely on detecting changes in a scene. Foreground segmentation is an effective way to extract the foreground from the scene, but these techniques cannot discriminate between objects that have temporarily stopped and those that are moving. We propose a series of modifications to an existing foreground segmentation system\cite{Butler2003} so that the foreground is further segmented into two or more layers. This yields an active layer of objects currently in motion and a passive layer of objects that have temporarily ceased motion which can itself be decomposed into multiple static layers. We also propose a variable threshold to cope with variable illumination, a feedback mechanism that allows an external process (i.e. surveillance system) to alter the motion detectors state, and a lighting compensation process and a shadow detector to reduce errors caused by lighting inconsistencies. The technique is demonstrated using outdoor surveillance footage, and is shown to be able to effectively deal with real world lighting conditions and overlapping objects.

Scene invariant crowd counting for real-time surveillance

Automated crowd counting allows excessive crowding to be detected immediately, without the need for constant human surveillance. Current crowd counting systems are location specific, and for these systems to function properly they must be trained on a large amount of data specific to the target location. As such, configuring multiple systems to use is a tedious and time consuming exercise. We propose a scene invariant crowd counting system which can easily be deployed at a different location to where it was trained. This is achieved using a global scaling factor to relate crowd sizes from one scene to another. We demonstrate that a crowd counting system trained at one viewpoint can achieve a correct classification rate of 90% at a different viewpoint.

Dynamic Performance Measures for Object Tracking Systems

Performance evaluation of object tracking systems is typically performed after the data has been processed, by comparing tracking results to ground truth. Whilst this approach is fine when performing offline testing, it does not allow for real-time analysis of the systems performance, which may be of use for live systems to either automatically tune the system or report reliability. In this paper, we propose three metrics that can be used to dynamically asses the performance of an object tracking system. Outputs and results from various stages in the tracking system are used to obtain measures that indicate the performance of motion segmentation, object detection and object matching. The proposed dynamic metrics are shown to accurately indicate tracking errors when visually comparing metric results to tracking output, and are shown to display similar trends to the ETISEO metrics when comparing different tracking configurations.

The impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations

Studies have examined the associations between cancers and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], but little is known about the impact of different laboratory practices on 25(OH)D concentrations. We examined the potential impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25(OH)D concentrations. Blood samples from 20 healthy volunteers underwent alternative laboratory procedures: four centrifuging times (2, 24, 72, and 96 h after blood draw); three types of collection tubes (red top serum tube, two different plasma anticoagulant tubes containing heparin or EDTA); and two types of assays (DiaSorin radioimmunoassay [RIA] and chemiluminescence immunoassay [CLIA/LIAISON®]). Log-transformed 25(OH)D concentrations were analyzed using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) linear regression models. We found no difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by centrifuging times or type of assay. There was some indication of a difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by tube type in CLIA/LIAISON®-assayed samples, with concentrations in heparinized plasma (geometric mean, 16.1 ng ml−1) higher than those in serum (geometric mean, 15.3 ng ml−1) (p = 0.01), but the difference was significant only after substantial centrifuging delays (96 h). Our study suggests no necessity for requiring immediate processing of blood samples after collection or for the choice of a tube type or assay.

Strategic information systems research : an archival analysis

The Journal of Strategic Information Systems (JSIS) has been an international outlet for Information Systems research that focuses on strategic issues since 1991. This paper reports on an analysis of the research published in JSIS to date. The paper presents a preliminary classification system for research topics related to Strategic Information Systems into which all 316 JSIS research papers as at end 2009 are classified. Discussion on changing emphases in topics over time is provided, in the context of the editorial philosophy of the journal. The paper seeks to stimulate discussion on future directions for research in Strategic Information Systems.

Dynamics of transformation and fragmentation of composite liquid nano-particles

Recent research on particle size distributions and particle concentrations near a busy road cannot be explained by the conventional mechanisms for particle evolution of combustion aerosols. Specifically they appear to be inadequate to explain the experimental observations of particle transformation and the evolution of the total number concentration. This resulted in the development of a new mechanism based on their thermal fragmentation, for the evolution of combustion aerosol nano-particles. A complex and comprehensive pattern of evolution of combustion aerosols, involving particle fragmentation, was then proposed and justified. In that model it was suggested that thermal fragmentation occurs in aggregates of primary particles each of which contains a solid graphite/carbon core surrounded by volatile molecules bonded to the core by strong covalent bonds. Due to the presence of strong covalent bonds between the core and the volatile (frill) molecules, such primary composite particles can be regarded as solid, despite the presence of significant (possibly, dominant) volatile component. Fragmentation occurs when weak van der Waals forces between such primary particles are overcome by their thermal (Brownian) motion. In this work, the accepted concept of thermal fragmentation is advanced to determine whether fragmentation is likely in liquid composite nano-particles. It has been demonstrated that at least at some stages of evolution, combustion aerosols contain a large number of composite liquid particles containing presumably several components such as water, oil, volatile compounds, and minerals. It is possible that such composite liquid particles may also experience thermal fragmentation and thus contribute to, for example, the evolution of the total number concentration as a function of distance from the source. Therefore, the aim of this project is to examine theoretically the possibility of thermal fragmentation of composite liquid nano-particles consisting of immiscible liquid v components. The specific focus is on ternary systems which include two immiscible liquid droplets surrounded by another medium (e.g., air). The analysis shows that three different structures are possible, the complete encapsulation of one liquid by the other, partial encapsulation of the two liquids in a composite particle, and the two droplets separated from each other. The probability of thermal fragmentation of two coagulated liquid droplets is discussed and examined for different volumes of the immiscible fluids in a composite liquid particle and their surface and interfacial tensions through the determination of the Gibbs free energy difference between the coagulated and fragmented states, and comparison of this energy difference with the typical thermal energy kT. The analysis reveals that fragmentation was found to be much more likely for a partially encapsulated particle than a completely encapsulated particle. In particular, it was found that thermal fragmentation was much more likely when the volume ratio of the two liquid droplets that constitute the composite particle are very different. Conversely, when the two liquid droplets are of similar volumes, the probability of thermal fragmentation is small. It is also demonstrated that the Gibbs free energy difference between the coagulated and fragmented states is not the only important factor determining the probability of thermal fragmentation of composite liquid particles. The second essential factor is the actual structure of the composite particle. It is shown that the probability of thermal fragmentation is also strongly dependent on the distance that each of the liquid droplets should travel to reach the fragmented state. In particular, if this distance is larger than the mean free path for the considered droplets in the air, the probability of thermal fragmentation should be negligible. In particular, it follows form here that fragmentation of the composite particle in the state with complete encapsulation is highly unlikely because of the larger distance that the two droplets must travel in order to separate. The analysis of composite liquid particles with the interfacial parameters that are expected in combustion aerosols demonstrates that thermal fragmentation of these vi particles may occur, and this mechanism may play a role in the evolution of combustion aerosols. Conditions for thermal fragmentation to play a significant role (for aerosol particles other than those from motor vehicle exhaust) are determined and examined theoretically. Conditions for spontaneous transformation between the states of composite particles with complete and partial encapsulation are also examined, demonstrating the possibility of such transformation in combustion aerosols. Indeed it was shown that for some typical components found in aerosols that transformation could take place on time scales less than 20 s. The analysis showed that factors that influenced surface and interfacial tension played an important role in this transformation process. It is suggested that such transformation may, for example, result in a delayed evaporation of composite particles with significant water component, leading to observable effects in evolution of combustion aerosols (including possible local humidity maximums near a source, such as a busy road). The obtained results will be important for further development and understanding of aerosol physics and technologies, including combustion aerosols and their evolution near a source.

Creating deep and broad change through research and systems approaches in early childhood education for sustainability

The co-authors raise two matters they consider essential for the future development of ECEfS. The first is the need to create deep foundations based in research. At a time of increasing practitioner interest, research in ECEfS is meagre. A robust research community is crucial to support quality in curriculum and pedagogy, and to promote learning and innovation in thinking and practice. The second 'essential' for the expansion and uptake of ECEfS is broad systemic change. All level within the early childhood education system - individual teachers and classrooms, whole centres and schools, professional associations and networks, accreditation and employing authorities, and teacher educators - must work together to create and reinforce the cultural and educational changes required for sustainability. This chapter provides explanations of processes to engender systemic change. It illustrates a systems approach, with reference to a recent study focused on embedding EfS into teacher education. This study emphasises the apparent contradiction that the answer to large-scale reform lies with small-scale reforms that build capacity and make connections.