Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is − 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of − 17% (wheat), − 5% (maize), − 15% (sorghum) and − 10% (millet) and across South Asia of − 16% (maize) and − 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Olive leaf phenolics and cardiovascular risk reduction: Physiological effects and mechanisms of action

Olive oil, an important component of the Mediterranean diet, is rich in polyphenols and is known to possess positive health effects relative to other dietary fats. In addition, the leaves of the olive plant (Olea europaea) contain similar phenolics (oleuropein, luteolin-7-glucoside, apigenin-7-glucoside, verbascoside and hydroxytyrosol) to those of olives and olive oil, although at higher concentrations. For example, the most abundant is the secoiridoid, oleuropein, representing 1–14% of olive leaf weight vs. 0.005–0.12% in olive oil. Although currently considered a waste product of the olive oil industry, recent research has suggested beneficial effects of phenolic-rich olive leaf extracts (OLE) in modifying cardiovascular risk biomarkers such as blood pressure, hyperglycaemia, oxidative stress and inflammation, as well as improving vascular function and lipid profiles. Despite this, data regarding the biological actions of OLE has mostly derived from animal, in vitro and ex vivo studies, with limited evidence deriving from human trials. Although the absorption and metabolism of olive oil phenolics has been investigated, less is known about the bioavailability of phenolics from OLE, limiting the interpretation of existing in vitro and ex vivo data. The current review will begin by describing the phenolic composition of olive leaves in comparison with that of the better studied olive oil. It will then review the effects of OLE on cardiovascular risk factors, covering both animal and human studies and will end by considering potential mechanisms of action

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

APOE genotype influences triglyceride and C-reactive protein responses to altered dietary fat intake in UK adults

Background: The response of plasma lipids to dietary fat manipulation is highly heterogeneous, with some indications that APOE genotype may be important. Objective: The objective was to use a prospective recruitment approach to determine the effect of dietary fat quantity and composition on both lipid and nonlipid cardiovascular disease biomarkers according to APOE genotype. Design: Participants had a mean (±SD) age of 51 ± 9 y and a BMI (in kg/m2) of 26.0 ± 3.8 (n = 44 E3/E3, n = 44 E3/E4) and followed a sequential dietary intervention (the SATgenϵ study) in which they were assigned to a low-fat diet, a high-fat high-SFA (HSF) diet, and the HSF diet with 3.45 g DHA/d (HSF-DHA), each for 8 wk. Fasting blood samples were collected at the end of each intervention arm. Results: An overall diet effect was evident for all cholesterol fractions (P < 0.01), with no significant genotype × diet interactions observed. A genotype × diet interaction (P = 0.033) was evident for plasma triglycerides, with 17% and 30% decreases in APOE3/E3 and APOE3/E4 individuals after the HSF-DHA diet relative to the low-fat diet. A significant genotype × diet interaction (P = 0.009) was also observed for C-reactive protein (CRP), with only significant increases in concentrations after the HSF and HSF-DHA diets relative to the low-fat diet in the APOE3/E4 group (P < 0.015). Conclusions: Relative to the wild-type APOE3/E3 group, our results indicate a greater sensitivity of fasting triglycerides and CRP to dietary fat manipulation in those with an APOE3/E4 genotype (25% population), with no effect of this allelic profile on cholesterol concentrations. The SATgenϵ study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01384032.

Dietary fat manipulation has a greater impact on postprandial lipid metabolism than the apolipoprotein E (epsilon) genotype: insights from the SATgenε study

Scope: Our aim was to determine the effects of chronic dietary fat manipulation on postprandial lipaemia according to apolipoprotein (APO)E genotype. Methods and results:Men (mean age 53 (SD 9) years), prospectively recruited for the APOE genotype (n = 12 E3/E3, n = 11 E3/E4), were assigned to a low fat (LF), high fat, high-saturated fat (HSF), and HSF diet with 3.45 g/day docosahexaenoic acid (HSF-DHA), each for an 8-week period in the same order. At the end of each dietary period, a postprandial assessment was performed using a test meal with a macronutrient profile representative of that dietary intervention. A variable postprandial plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) response according to APOE genotype was evident, with a greater sensitivity to the TAG-lowering effects of DHA in APOE4 carriers (p ≤ 0.005). There was a lack of an independent genotype effect on any of the lipid measures. In the groups combined, dietary fat manipulation had a significant impact on lipids in plasma and Svedberg flotation rate (Sf) 60–400 TAG-rich lipoprotein fraction, with lower responses following the HSF-DHA than HSF intervention (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Although a modest impact of APOE genotype was observed on the plasma TAG profile, dietary fat manipulation emerged as a greater modulator of the postprandial lipid response in normolipidaemic men.

Measuring significant variability characteristics: An assessment of three UK renewables

The variability of renewable energy is widely recognised as a challenge for integrating high levels of renewable generation into electricity systems. However, to explore its implications effectively, variability itself should first be clearly understood. This is particularly true for national electricity systems with high planned penetration of renewables and limited interconnection such as the UK. Variability cannot be considered as a distinct resource property with a single measurable parameter, but is a multi-faceted concept best described by a range of distinct characteristics. This paper identifies relevant characteristics of variability, and considers their implications for energy research. This is done through analysis of wind, solar and tidal current resources, with a primary focus on the Bristol Channel region in the UK. The relationship with electricity demand is considered, alongside the potential benefits of resource diversity. Analysis is presented in terms of persistence, distribution, frequency and correlation between supply and demand. Marked differences are seen between the behaviours of the individual resources, and these give rise to a range of different implications for system integration. Wind shows strong persistence and a useful seasonal pattern, but also a high spread in energy levels at timescales beyond one or two days. The solar resource is most closely correlated with electricity demand, but is undermined by night-time zero values and an even greater spread of monthly energy delivered than wind. In contrast, the tidal resource exhibits very low persistence, but also much greater consistency in energy values assessed across monthly time scales. Whilst this paper focuses primarily on the behaviour of resources, it is noted that discrete variability characteristics can be related to different system impacts. Persistence and predictability are relevant for system balancing, whereas statistical distribution is more relevant when exploring issues of asset utilisation and energy curtailment. Areas of further research are also identified, including the need to assess the value of predictability in relation to other characteristics.

Stock measurement and regeneration policy approaches to ‘hardcore’ brownfield sites: England and Japan compared

This paper discusses key contextual differences and similarities in a comparative study on brownfield regeneration in England and Japan. Over the last decade, the regeneration of large-scale ‘flagship’ projects has been a primary focus in England, and previous research has discussed policy issues and key barriers at these sites. However, further research is required to explore specific barriers associated with problematic ‘hardcore’ sites suffering from long-term dereliction due to site-specific obstacles such as contamination and fragmented ownership. In comparison with England, brownfield regeneration is a relatively new urban agenda in Japan. Japan has less experience in terms of promoting redevelopment of brownfield sites at national level and the specific issues of ‘hardcore’ sites have been under-researched. The paper reviews and highlights important issues in comparing the definitions, national policy frameworks and the current stock of brownfields.