Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Magnetic resonance imaging: An accurate, radiation-free, alternative to computed tomography for the primary imaging and three-dimensional reconstruction of the bony orbit

Purpose: To determine the extent to which the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based virtual 3-dimensional (3D) models of the intact orbit can approach that of the gold standard, computed tomography (CT) based models. The goal was to determine whether MRI is a viable alternative to CT scans in patients with isolated orbital fractures and penetrating eye injuries, pediatric patients, and patients requiring multiple scans in whom radiation exposure is ideally limited. Materials and Methods: Patients who presented with unilateral orbital fractures to the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital from March 2011 to March 2012 were recruited to participate in this cross-sectional study. The primary predictor variable was the imaging technique (MRI vs CT). The outcome measurements were orbital volume (primary outcome) and geometric intraorbital surface deviations (secondary outcome)between the MRI- and CT-based 3D models. Results: Eleven subjects (9 male) were enrolled. The patients’ mean age was 30 years. On average, the MRI models underestimated the orbital volume of the CT models by 0.50 0.19 cm3 . The average intraorbital surface deviation between the MRI and CT models was 0.34 0.32 mm, with 78 2.7% of the surface within a tolerance of 0.5 mm. Conclusions: The volumetric differences of the MRI models are comparable to reported results from CT models. The intraorbital MRI surface deviations are smaller than the accepted tolerance for orbital surgical reconstructions. Therefore, the authors believe that MRI is an accurate radiation-free alternative to CT for the primary imaging and 3D reconstruction of the bony orbit. �

Improving the teaching and learning of steel structural design

Engineering students are best able to understand theory when one explains it in relation to realistic problems and its practical applications. Teaching theory in isolation has led to lower levels of comprehension and motivation and a correspondingly higher rate of failure. At Queensland University of Technology, a number of new methods have been introduced recently to improve the teaching and learning of steel structural design at undergradt1ate level. In the basic steel structures subject a project-based teaching method was introduced in which the students were required to analyse, design and build the lightest I most efficient steel columns for a given target capacity. A design assignment involving simple, but real structures was also introduced in the basic steel structures subject. Both these exercises simulated realistic engineering problems from the early years of the course and produced a range of benefits. Improvements to the teaching and learning was also made through integration of a number of related structural engineering subjects and by the introduction of animated computer models and laboratory models. This paper presents the details of all these innovative methods which improved greatly the students' understanding of the steel structures design process.

Models of survivorship care provision in adult patients with haematological cancer : an integrative literature review

Purpose: Increasing numbers of haematology cancer survivors warrants identification of the most effective model of survivorship care to survivors from a diverse range of haematological cancers with aggressive treatment regimens. This review aimed to identify models of survivorship care to support the needs of haematology cancer survivors. Methods: An integrative literature review method utilised a search of electronic databases (CINAHL, Medline, PsycInfo, PubMed, EMBASE, PsycArticles, Cochrane Library) for eligible articles (up to July 2014). Articles were included if they proposed or reported the use of a model of care for haematology cancer survivors. Results: Fourteen articles were included in this review. Eight articles proposed and described models of care and six reported the use of a range of survivorship models of care in haematology cancer survivors. No randomised controlled trials or literature reviews were found to have been undertaken specifically with this cohort of cancer survivors. There was variation in the models described and who provided the survivorship care. Conclusion: Due to the lack of studies evaluating the effectiveness of models of care, it is difficult to determine the best model of care for haematology cancer survivors. Many different models of care are being put into practice before robust research is conducted. Therefore well-designed high quality pragmatic randomised controlled trials are required to inform clinical practice.

Oncology service initiatives and research in regional Australia

Objective: This paper reflects on the recent growth of cancer research being conducted through some of Australia’s rural centres. It encompasses work being done across the fields of clinical, translational and health services research. Design: This is a collaborative piece with contributions from rural health researchers, clinical and cancer services staff from several different regions. Conclusion: The past decade has seen an expansion in cancer research in rural and regional Australia driven in part by the recognition that cancer patients in remote areas experience poorer outcomes than their metropolitan counterparts. This work has led to the development of more effective cancer networks and new models of care designed to meet the particular needs of the rural cancer patient. It is hoped that the growth of cancer research in regional centres will, in time, reduce the disparity between rural and urban communities and improve outcomes for cancer patients across both populations.

BPMN Miner: Automated Discovery of BPMN Process Models with Hierarchical Structure

Existing techniques for automated discovery of process models from event logs gen- erally produce flat process models. Thus, they fail to exploit the notion of subprocess as well as error handling and repetition constructs provided by contemporary process modeling notations, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper presents a technique for automated discovery of hierarchical BPMN models con- taining interrupting and non-interrupting boundary events and activity markers. The technique employs functional and inclusion dependency discovery techniques in order to elicit a process-subprocess hierarchy from the event log. Given this hierarchy and the projected logs associated to each node in the hierarchy, parent process and subprocess models are then discovered using existing techniques for flat process model discovery. Finally, the resulting models and logs are heuristically analyzed in order to identify boundary events and markers. By employing approximate dependency discovery tech- niques, it is possible to filter out noise in the event log arising for example from data entry errors or missing events. A validation with one synthetic and two real-life logs shows that process models derived by the proposed technique are more accurate and less complex than those derived with flat process discovery techniques. Meanwhile, a validation on a family of synthetically generated logs shows that the technique is resilient to varying levels of noise.

Evolutionary optimization and game strategies for advanced multi-disciplinary design : applications to aeronautics and UAV design

Many complex aeronautical design problems can be formulated with efficient multi-objective evolutionary optimization methods and game strategies. This book describes the role of advanced innovative evolution tools in the solution, or the set of solutions of single or multi disciplinary optimization. These tools use the concept of multi-population, asynchronous parallelization and hierarchical topology which allows different models including precise, intermediate and approximate models with each node belonging to the different hierarchical layer handled by a different Evolutionary Algorithm. The efficiency of evolutionary algorithms for both single and multi-objective optimization problems are significantly improved by the coupling of EAs with games and in particular by a new dynamic methodology named “Hybridized Nash-Pareto games”. Multi objective Optimization techniques and robust design problems taking into account uncertainties are introduced and explained in detail. Several applications dealing with civil aircraft and UAV, UCAV systems are implemented numerically and discussed. Applications of increasing optimization complexity are presented as well as two hands-on test cases problems. These examples focus on aeronautical applications and will be useful to the practitioner in the laboratory or in industrial design environments. The evolutionary methods coupled with games presented in this volume can be applied to other areas including surface and marine transport, structures, biomedical engineering, renewable energy and environmental problems.

Role of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality

Urbanisation significantly changes the characteristics of a catchment as natural areas are transformed to impervious surfaces such as roads, roofs and parking lots. The increased fraction of impervious surfaces leads to changes to the stormwater runoff characteristics, whilst a variety of anthropogenic activities common to urban areas generate a range of pollutants such as nutrients, solids and organic matter. These pollutants accumulate on catchment surfaces and are removed and trans- ported by stormwater runoff and thereby contribute pollutant loads to receiving waters. In summary, urbanisation influences the stormwater characteristics of a catchment, including hydrology and water quality. Due to the growing recognition that stormwater pollution is a significant environmental problem, the implementation of mitigation strategies to improve the quality of stormwater runoff is becoming increasingly common in urban areas. A scientifically robust stormwater quality treatment strategy is an essential requirement for effective urban stormwater management. The efficient design of treatment systems is closely dependent on the state of knowledge in relation to the primary factors influencing stormwater quality. In this regard, stormwater modelling outcomes provide designers with important guidance and datasets which significantly underpin the design of effective stormwater treatment systems. Therefore, the accuracy of modelling approaches and the reliability modelling outcomes are of particular concern. This book discusses the inherent complexity and key characteristics in the areas of urban hydrology and stormwater quality, based on the influence exerted by a range of rainfall and catchment characteristics. A comprehensive field sampling and testing programme in relation to pollutant build-up, an urban catchment monitoring programme in relation to stormwater quality and the outcomes from advanced statistical analyses provided the platform for the knowledge creation. Two case studies and two real-world applications are discussed to illustrate the translation of the knowledge created to practical use in relation to the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics on urban stormwater quality. An innovative rainfall classification based on stormwater quality was developed to support the effective and scientifically robust design of stormwater treatment systems. Underpinned by the rainfall classification methodology, a reliable approach for design rainfall selection is proposed in order to optimise stormwater treatment based on both, stormwater quality and quantity. This is a paradigm shift from the common approach where stormwater treatment systems are designed based solely on stormwater quantity data. Additionally, how pollutant build-up and stormwater runoff quality vary with a range of catchment characteristics was also investigated. Based on the study out- comes, it can be concluded that the use of only a limited number of catchment parameters such as land use and impervious surface percentage, as it is the case in current modelling approaches, could result in appreciable error in water quality estimation. Influential factors which should be incorporated into modelling in relation to catchment characteristics, should also include urban form and impervious surface area distribution. The knowledge created through the research investigations discussed in this monograph is expected to make a significant contribution to engineering practice such as hydrologic and stormwater quality modelling, stormwater treatment design and urban planning, as the study outcomes provide practical approaches and recommendations for urban stormwater quality enhancement. Furthermore, this monograph also demonstrates how fundamental knowledge of stormwater quality processes can be translated to provide guidance on engineering practice, the comprehensive application of multivariate data analyses techniques and a paradigm on integrative use of computer models and mathematical models to derive practical outcomes.

Prediction of shrinkage and porosity during drying: Considering both material properties and process conditions

Drying of food materials offers a significant increase in the shelf life of food materials, along with the modification of quality attributes due to simultaneous heat and mass transfer. Shrinkage and variations in porosity are the common micro and microstructural changes that take place during the drying of mostly the food materials. Although extensive research has been carried out on the prediction of shrinkage and porosity over the time of drying, no single model exists which consider both material properties and process condition in the same model. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop and validate shrinkage and porosity models of food materials during drying considering both process parameters and sample properties. The stored energy within the sample, elastic potential energy, glass transition temperature and physical properties of the sample such as initial porosity, particle density, bulk density and moisture content have been taken into consideration. Physical properties and validation have been made by using a universal testing machine ( Instron 2kN), a profilometer (Nanovea) and a pycnometer. Apart from these, COMSOL Multiphysics 4.4 has been used to solve heat and mass transfer physics. Results obtained from models of shrinkage and porosity is quite consistent with the experimental data. Successful implementation of these models would ensure the use of optimum energy in the course of drying and better quality retention of dried foods.

Socially critical pedagogy and the 'production of skilled performers': Further considerations of teaching and learning in physical education

The growing call for physical educators to move beyond the bounds of performance has been a powerful discourse. However, it is a discourse that has tended to be heavy on theory but light on practical application. This paper discusses recent work in the area of skill acquisition and what this might mean for pedagogical practices in physical education. The acquisition of motor skill has traditionally been a core objective for physical educators, and there has been a perception that child-centred pedagogies have failed in the achievement of this traditional yardstick. However, drawing from the work of Rovegno and Kirk (1995) and Langley (1995; 1997), and making links with current work in the motor learning area, it is possible to show that skill acquisition is not necessarily compromised by child-centred pedagogy. Indeed, working beyond Mosston's discovery threshold and using models such as Games for Understanding, can provide deeper skill-learning experiences as well as being socially just.

Eco-crime and freshwater

The unsustainable and exploitative use of one of the most important but scarce resources on the planet - freshwater - continues to create conflict and human dislocation on a grand scale. Instead of witnessing nation-states adopting more equitable and efficient conservation strategies, powerful corporations are permitted to privatise and monopolise diminishing water reservoirs based on flawed neo-liberal assumptions and market models of the ‘global good’. The commodification of water has enabled corporate monopolies and corrupt states to exploit a fundamental human right, and in the process have created new forms of criminality. In recent years, affluent industrialised nations have experienced violent rioting as protestors express opposition to government ‘freshwater taxes’ and to corporate investors seeking to privatise drinking water. These water conflicts have included unprecedented clashes with police and deaths of innocent civilians in South Africa (BBC News, 2014a); the United Nations intervention in Detroit USA after weeks of public protest (Burns, 2014); and the hundreds of thousands of people protesting in Ireland (BBC News, 2014,b; Irish Times 2015). Subsequently, the commodification of freshwater has become a criminological issue for water-abundant rich states, as well as for the highly indebted water-scarce nations.

Public use and perceptions of emergency departments: A population survey

Objectives To inform demand management strategies aimed at reducing congestion in EDs by: (i) identifying public use of EDs, decision-making and reasons; and (ii) measuring acceptance of alternative care models. Methods A cross-sectional telephone survey of a random sample of Queensland population aged 18 years or older residing in a dwelling unit in Queensland that could be contacted on a land-based telephone service was conducted. One person per household was selected according to a predetermined algorithm to ensure sex and regional balance were interviewed. The main outcome measures were: ED use, attitudes towards ED staff and services, and alternative models of care. Results The final sample included a total of 1256 respondents (response rate = 40.3%). Twenty-one per cent attended EDs in the preceding 12 months. The decision to attend was made by patients (51%), health and medical professionals (31%), and others (18%). The main reasons included perceived severity of the illness (47%), unavailability of alternative services (26%) and better care (11%). Most respondents agreed with more flexible care models of service delivery including incentives for general practitioners (90%), private health insurance coverage for ED use (89%), and enhanced roles for paramedics and nurses. Conclusions Main reason for attending ED is perceived severity of illness, followed by lack of alternative care. The majority of both consumers and the public are in favour of more flexible care models. However, further research is necessary to detail those alternatives and to test and validate their effectiveness.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.

Effectiveness of on-line resources to enhance student learning and engagement

BACKGROUND For engineering graduates to be work-ready with marketable skills they must not only be well-versed with engineering science and its applications, but also able to adapt to using commercial software that is widely used in engineering practice. Hydrological/hydraulic modelling is one aspect of engineering practice which demands the ability to apply fundamentals into design and construction using software. The user manuals for such software are usually tailored for the experienced engineer but not for undergraduates who typically are novices to concepts of modelling and software tools. As the focus of a course such as Advanced Water Engineering is on the wider aspects of engineering application of hydrological and hydraulic concepts, it is ineffective for the lecturers to direct the students to user manuals as students have neither the time nor the desire to sift through numerous pages in a manual. An alternative and efficient way to demonstrate the use of the software is enabling students to develop a model to simulate real-world scenario using the tools of the software and directing them to make informed decisions based on outcomes. PURPOSE Past experience of the lecturer showed that the resources available for the students left a knowledge gap leading to numerous student queries outside contact hours. The purpose of this study is to assess how effective purpose-built video resources can be in supplementing the traditional learning resources to enhance student learning. APPROACH Short-length animated video clips comprising guided step-by-step instructions were prepared using screen capture software to capture screen activity and later edited to focus on specific features using pop-up annotations; Vocal narration was purposely excluded to avoid disturbances due to noise and allow different learning paces of individual students. The video clips were made available to the students alongside the traditional resources/approaches such as in-class demonstrations, guideline notes, and tips for efficient and error-free procedural descriptions. The number of queries the lecturer received from the student cohort outside the lecture times was recorded. An anonymous survey to assess the usefulness and adequacy of the courseware was conducted. OUTCOMES While a significant decline in the number of student queries was noted, an overwhelming majority of the survey respondents confirmed the usefulness of the purpose-developed courseware. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS/SUMMARY The survey and lecturer’s experience indicated that animated demonstration video clips illustrating the various steps involved in developing hydrologic and hydraulic models and simulating design scenarios is an effective supplement for traditional learning resources. Among the many advantages of the custom-made video clips as a learning resource are that they (1) highlight the aspects that are important to undergraduate learning but not available in the software manuals as the latter are designed for more mature users/learners; (2) provide short, to-the point communication in a step-by-step manner; (3) allow students flexibility to self-learn at their own pace; (4) enhance student learning; and (5) enable time savings for the lecturer in the long term by avoiding queries of a repetitive nature. It is expected that these newly developed resources will be improved to incorporate students’ suggestions before being offered to future cohorts of students. The concept can also be expanded to other relevant courses where animated demonstrations of key modelling steps are beneficial to student learning.

A novel serogenetic approach determines the community prevalence of celiac disease and informs improved diagnostic pathways

Background: Changing perspectives on the natural history of celiac disease (CD), new serology and genetic tests, and amended histological criteria for diagnosis cast doubt on past prevalence estimates for CD. We set out to establish a more accurate prevalence estimate for CD using a novel serogenetic approach.Methods: The human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ genotype was determined in 356 patients with 'biopsy-confirmed' CD, and in two age-stratified, randomly selected community cohorts of 1,390 women and 1,158 men. Sera were screened for CD-specific serology.Results: Only five 'biopsy-confirmed' patients with CD did not possess the susceptibility alleles HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2, and four of these were misdiagnoses. HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 was present in 56% of all women and men in the community cohorts. Transglutaminase (TG)-2 IgA and composite TG2/deamidated gliadin peptide (DGP) IgA/IgG were abnormal in 4.6% and 5.6%, respectively, of the community women and 6.9% and 6.9%, respectively, of the community men, but in the screen-positive group, only 71% and 75%, respectively, of women and 65% and 63%, respectively, of men possessed HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2. Medical review was possible for 41% of seropositive women and 50% of seropositive men, and led to biopsy-confirmed CD in 10 women (0.7%) and 6 men (0.5%), but based on relative risk for HLA-DQ2.5, DQ8, or DQ2.2 in all TG2 IgA or TG2/DGP IgA/IgG screen-positive subjects, CD affected 1.3% or 1.9%, respectively, of females and 1.3% or 1.2%, respectively, of men. Serogenetic data from these community cohorts indicated that testing screen positives for HLA-DQ, or carrying out HLA-DQ and further serology, could have reduced unnecessary gastroscopies due to false-positive serology by at least 40% and by over 70%, respectively.Conclusions: Screening with TG2 IgA serology and requiring biopsy confirmation caused the community prevalence of CD to be substantially underestimated. Testing for HLA-DQ genes and confirmatory serology could reduce the numbers of unnecessary gastroscopies. © 2013 Anderson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.