Estimation of scots pine defoliation by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) using multi-temporal radar data

In 1998-2001 Finland suffered the most severe insect outbreak ever recorded, over 500,000 hectares. The outbreak was caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The outbreak has continued in the study area, Palokangas, ever since. To find a good method to monitor this type of outbreaks, the purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of multi-temporal ERS-2 and ENVISAT SAR imagery for estimating Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) defoliation. Three methods were tested: unsupervised k-means clustering, supervised linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression. In addition, I assessed if harvested areas could be differentiated from the defoliated forest using the same methods. Two different speckle filters were used to determine the effect of filtering on the SAR imagery and subsequent results. The logistic regression performed best, producing a classification accuracy of 81.6% (kappa 0.62) with two classes (no defoliation, >20% defoliation). LDA accuracy was with two classes at best 77.7% (kappa 0.54) and k-means 72.8 (0.46). In general, the largest speckle filter, 5 x 5 image window, performed best. When additional classes were added the accuracy was usually degraded on a step-by-step basis. The results were good, but because of the restrictions in the study they should be confirmed with independent data, before full conclusions can be made that results are reliable. The restrictions include the small size field data and, thus, the problems with accuracy assessment (no separate testing data) as well as the lack of meteorological data from the imaging dates.

Automation of shear-wave splitting parameter determination of local earthquakes at Yellowstone : application as indicator of crustal stress and temporal variation

Shear-wave splitting can be a useful technique for determining crustal stress fields in volcanic settings and temporal variations associated with activity. Splitting parameters were determined for a subset of local earthquakes recorded from 2000-2010 at Yellowstone. Analysis was automated using an unsupervised cluster analysis technique to determine optimum splitting parameters from 270 analysis windows for each event. Six stations clearly exhibit preferential fast polarization values sub-orthogonal to the direction of minimum horizontal compression. Yellowstone deformation results in a local crustal stress field differing from the regional field dominated by NE-SW extension, and fast directions reflect this difference rotating around the caldera maintaining perpendicularity to the rim. One station exhibits temporal variations concordant with identified periods of caldera subsidence and uplift. From splitting measurements, we calculated a crustal anisotropy of ~17-23% and crack density ~0.12-0.17 possibly resulting from stress-aligned fluid filled microcracks in the upper crust and an active hydrothermal system.

Quantitative OCT analysis of idiopathic perifoveal telangiectasia

PURPOSE: To identify and quantitate specific changes in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of patients with type 2 idiopathic perifoveal telangiectasia (IPT). METHODS: In a prospectively designed, observational, case-control study, 28 eyes of 14 consecutive patients with IPT were examined with OCT and compared with eyes of 14 unaffected control subjects. Light reflectivity profiles of raw scan data of OCT images were quantitatively analyzed for differences in distance between different retinal reflectivity layers and their respective reflectivities. Maculae were examined in four separate regions: (1) central fovea, (2) nasal perifovea, (3) temporal perifovea, and (4) outside the fovea. RESULTS: Retinal thinning, shortening of the photoreceptor outer segments and loss of reflectivity of the photoreceptor ellipsoid region were found in the central foveal region as well as the nasal and temporal perifoveal regions in eyes with IPT. In addition, increased reflectivity of the outer nuclear layer was found in a sharply demarcated area of the inferotemporal perifoveal region in all affected eyes. Retinal tissue located more than 2000 mum away from the foveola was indistinguishable from that in normal eyes. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative OCT analysis shows unique and specific changes in the photoreceptors of the central macula in IPT which can be detected from first clinical presentation. These changes may be of use as an additional diagnostic tool. Correlation of the findings in the outer nuclear layer with histologic studies may help identify the nature of the reflectivity increase and define more clearly the type of damage sustained by the photoreceptors in this condition.

Comparison of voxel-based 3-D MRI analysis and subtraction ictal SPECT coregistered to MRI in focal epilepsy

While voxel-based 3-D MRI analysis methods as well as assessment of subtracted ictal versus interictal perfusion studies (SISCOM) have proven their potential in the detection of lesions in focal epilepsy, a combined approach has not yet been reported. The present study investigates if individual automated voxel-based 3-D MRI analyses combined with SISCOM studies contribute to an enhanced detection of mesiotemporal epileptogenic foci. Seven consecutive patients with refractory complex partial epilepsy were prospectively evaluated by SISCOM and voxel-based 3-D MRI analysis. The functional perfusion maps and voxel-based statistical maps were coregistered in 3-D space. In five patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), the area of ictal hyperperfusion and corresponding structural abnormalities detected by 3-D MRI analysis were identified within the same temporal lobe. In two patients, additional structural and functional abnormalities were detected beyond the mesial temporal lobe. Five patients with TLE underwent epileptic surgery with favourable postoperative outcome (Engel class Ia and Ib) after 3-5 years of follow-up, while two patients remained on conservative treatment. In summary, multimodal assessment of structural abnormalities by voxel-based analysis and SISCOM may contribute to advanced observer-independent preoperative assessment of seizure origin.

Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.

Statistical analysis of multichannel scalp field data

High density spatial and temporal sampling of EEG data enhances the quality of results of electrophysiological experiments. Because EEG sources typically produce widespread electric fields (see Chapter 3) and operate at frequencies well below the sampling rate, increasing the number of electrodes and time samples will not necessarily increase the number of observed processes, but mainly increase the accuracy of the representation of these processes. This is namely the case when inverse solutions are computed. As a consequence, increasing the sampling in space and time increases the redundancy of the data (in space, because electrodes are correlated due to volume conduction, and time, because neighboring time points are correlated), while the degrees of freedom of the data change only little. This has to be taken into account when statistical inferences are to be made from the data. However, in many ERP studies, the intrinsic correlation structure of the data has been disregarded. Often, some electrodes or groups of electrodes are a priori selected as the analysis entity and considered as repeated (within subject) measures that are analyzed using standard univariate statistics. The increased spatial resolution obtained with more electrodes is thus poorly represented by the resulting statistics. In addition, the assumptions made (e.g. in terms of what constitutes a repeated measure) are not supported by what we know about the properties of EEG data. From the point of view of physics (see Chapter 3), the natural “atomic” analysis entity of EEG and ERP data is the scalp electric field

Anger and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in crime victims: A longitudinal analysis

Among trauma-exposed individuals, severity of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms is strongly correlated with anger. The authors used 2 longitudinal data sets with 282 and 218 crime victims, respectively, to investigate the temporal sequence of anger and PTSD symptoms following the assault. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that PTSD symptoms predicted subsequent level of anger, but that anger did not predict subsequent PTSD symptoms. Testing alternative models (common factor model, unmeasured 3rd variable model) that might account for spuriousness of the relation strengthened confidence in the results of the cross-lagged analyses. Further analyses suggested that rumination mediates the effect of PTSD symptoms on anger.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of alpha brain electric fields, and cognitive modes

Brian electric activity is viewed as sequences of momentary maps of potential distribution. Frequency-domain source modeling, estimation of the complexity of the trajectory of the mapped brain field distributions in state space, and microstate parsing were used as analysis tools. Input-presentation as well as task-free (spontaneous thought) data collection paradigms were employed. We found: Alpha EEG field strength is more affected by visualizing mentation than by abstract mentation, both input-driven as well as self-generated. There are different neuronal populations and brain locations of the electric generators for different temporal frequencies of the brain field. Different alpha frequencies execute different brain functions as revealed by canonical correlations with mentation profiles. Different modes of mentation engage the same temporal frequencies at different brain locations. The basic structure of alpha electric fields implies inhomogeneity over time — alpha consists of concatenated global microstates in the sub-second range, characterized by quasi-stable field topographies, and rapid transitions between the microstates. In general, brain activity is strongly discontinuous, indicating that parsing into field landscape-defined microstates is appropriate. Different modes of spontaneous and induced mentation are associated with different brain electric microstates; these are proposed as candidates for psychophysiological ``atoms of thought''.

Observations of the northern seasonal polar cap on Mars II: HiRISE photometric analysis of evolution of northern polar dunes in spring

We present an overview of our analyses of HiRISE observations of spring evolution of selected dune areas of the north polar erg. The north polar erg is covered annually by seasonal volatile ice layer, a mixture of CO2 and H2O with mineral dust contamination. In spring, this layer sublimes creating visually enigmatic phenomena, e.g. dark and bright fan-shaped deposits, dark–bright–dark bandings, dark down-slope streaks, and seasonal polygonal cracks. Similar phenomena in southern polar areas are believed to be related to the specific process of solid-state greenhouse effect. In the north, it is currently unclear if the solid-state greenhouse effect is able to explain all the observed phenomena especially because the increased influence of H2O on the time scales of this process has not yet been quantified. HiRISE observations of our selected locations show that the ground exhibits a temporal behaviour similar to the one observed in the southern polar areas: a brightening phase starting close to the spring equinox with a subsequent darkening towards summer solstice. The resolution of HiRISE enabled us to study dunes and substrate individually and even distinguish between different developments on windward and slip face sides of single dunes. Differences in the seasonal evolution between steep slip faces and flatter substrate and windward sides of dunes have been identified and compared to CRISM data of CO2 and H2O distributions on dunes. We also observe small scale dark blotches that appear in early observations and tend to sustain a low reflectivity throughout the spring. These blotches can be regarded as the analogue of dark fan deposits in southern polar areas, leading us to the conclusion that both martian polar areas follow similar spring evolutions.