Why do people non-demand reveal in hypothetical double referenda for public goods?

Hypothetical contingent valuation surveys used to elicit values for environmental and other public goods often employ variants of the referendum mechanism due to the cognitive simplicity and familiarity of respondents with this voting format. One variant, the double referendum mechanism, requires respondents to state twice how they would vote for a given policy proposal given their cost of the good. Data from these surveys often exhibit anomalies inconsistent with standard economic models of consumer preferences. There are a number of published explanations for these anomalies, mostly focusing on problems with the second vote. This article investigates which aspects of the hypothetical task affect the degree of nondemand revelation and takes an individual-based approach to identifying people most likely to non-demand reveal. A clear profile emerges from our model of a person who faces a negative surplus i.e. a net loss in the second vote and invokes non self-interested, non financial motivations during the decision process.

A normative approach to the criminalisation of cartel activity

Although cartel behaviour is almost universally (and rightly) condemned, it is not clear why cartel participants deserve the full wrath of the criminal law and its associated punishment. To fill this void, I develop a normative (or principled) justification for the criminalisation of conduct characteristic of ‘hard core’ cartels. The paper opens with a brief consideration of the rhetoric commonly used to denounce cartel activity, eg that it ‘steals from’ or ‘robs’ consumers. To put the discussion in context, a brief definition of ‘hard core’ cartel behaviour is provided and the harms associated with this activity are identified. These are: welfare losses in the form of appropriation (from consumer to producer) of consumer surplus, the creation of deadweight loss to the economy, the creation of productive inefficiency (hindering innovation of both products and processes), and the creation of so-called X-inefficiency. As not all activities which cause harm ought to be criminalised, a theory as to why certain harms in a liberal society can be criminalised is developed. It is based on JS Mill's harm to others principle (as refined by Feinberg) and on a choice of social institutions using Rawls's ‘veil of ignorance.’ The theory is centred on the value of individual choice in securing one's own well-being, with the market as an indispensable instrument for this. But as applied to the harm associated with cartel conduct, this theory shows that none of the earlier mentioned problems associated with this activity provide sufficient justification for criminalisation. However, as the harm from hard core cartel activity strikes at an important institution which permits an individual's ability to secure their own well-being in a liberal society, criminalisation of hard core cartel behaviour can have its normative justification on this basis.

Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

A Novel Method to Enable Trade-offs Across the Whole Product Life of an Aircraft Using Value Driven Design

The increasing need to understand complex products and systems with long life spans, presents a significant challenge to designers who increasingly require a broader understanding of the operational aspects of the system. This demands an evolution in current design practice, as designers are often constrained to provide a subsystem solution without full knowledge of the global system operation. Recently there has been a push to consider value centric approaches which should facilitate better or more rapid convergence to design solutions with predictable completion schedules. Value Driven Design is one such approach, in which value is used as the system top level objective function. This provides a broader view of the system and enables all sub-systems and components to be designed with a view to the effect on project value. It also has the capacity to include value expressions for more qualitative aspects, such as environmental impact. However, application of the method to date has been restricted to comparing value in a programme where the lifespan is fixed and known a priori. This paper takes a novel view of value driven design through the surplus value objective function, and shows how it can be used to identify key sensitivities to guide designers in design trade-off decisions. By considering a new time based approach it can be used to identify optimum programme life-span and hence allow trade-offs over the whole product life.

Mycotoxins and human disease: a largely ignored global health issue

Aflatoxins and fumonisins (FB) are mycotoxins contaminating a large fraction of the world's food, including maize, cereals, groundnuts and tree nuts. The toxins frequently co-occur in maize. Where these commodities are dietary staples, for example, in parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, the contamination translates to high-level chronic exposure. This is particularly true in subsistence farming communities where regulations to control exposure are either non-existent or practically unenforceable. Aflatoxins are hepatocarcinogenic in humans, particularly in conjunction with chronic hepatitis B virus infection, and cause aflatoxicosis in episodic poisoning outbreaks. In animals, these toxins also impair growth and are immunosuppressive; the latter effects are of increasing interest in human populations. FB have been reported to induce liver and kidney tumours in rodents and are classified as Group 2B 'possibly carcinogenic to humans', with ecological studies implying a possible link to increased oesophageal cancer. Recent studies also suggest that the FB may cause neural tube defects in some maize-consuming populations. There is a plausible mechanism for this effect via a disruption of ceramide synthase and sphingolipid biosynthesis. Notwithstanding the need for a better evidence-base on mycotoxins and human health, supported by better biomarkers of exposure and effect in epidemiological studies, the existing data are sufficient to prioritize exposure reduction in vulnerable populations. For both toxins, there are a number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies which could be beneficial if the political will and financial investment can be applied to what remains a largely and rather shamefully ignored global health issue.

Determination of geographical origin of distillers dried grains and solubles using isotope ratio mass spectrometry

In recent years distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS), co-products of the bio-ethanol and beverages industries, have become globally traded commodity for the animal feed sector. As such it is becoming increasingly important to be able to trace the geographical origin of commodities in case of a contamination incident or authenticity issue arise. In this study, 137 DDGS samples from a range of different geographical origins (China, USA, Canada and European Union) were collected and analyzed. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) was used to analyze the DDGS for ²H/¹H, ¹³C/¹²C, ¹⁵N/¹⁴N, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and ³⁴S/³²S isotope ratios which can vary depending on geographical origin and processing. Univariate and multivariate statistical techniques were employed to investigate the feasibility of using the IRMS data to determine botanical and geographical origin of the DDGS. The results indicated that this commodity could be differentiated according to their place of origin by the analysis of stable isotopes of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen but not with sulfur. By adding data to the models produced in this study, potentially an isotope databank could be set up for traceability procedures for DDGS, similar to the one established already for wine which will help in feed and food security issues arising worldwide.

Unveiling Fairness for the Consumer:The Law, Economics and Justice of Expanded Arbitration

In recent years, the US Supreme Court has rather controversially extended the ambit of the Federal Arbitration Act to extend arbitration’s reach into, inter alia¸ consumer matters, with the consequence that consumers are often (and unbeknownst to them) denied remedies which would otherwise be available. Such denied remedies include recourse to class action proceedings, effective denial of punitive damages, access to discovery and the ability to resolve the matter in a convenient forum.

The court’s extension of arbitration’s ambit is controversial. Attempts to overturn this extension have been made in Congress, but to no avail. In contrast to American law, European consumer law looks at pre-dispute agreements to arbitrate directed at consumers with extreme suspicion, and does so on the grounds of fairness. In contrast, some argue that pre-dispute agreements in consumer (and employment) matters are consumer welfare enhancing: they decrease the costs of doing business, which is then passed on to the consumer. This Article examines these latter claims from both an economic and normative perspective.

The economic analysis of these arguments shows that their assumptions do not hold. Rather than being productive of consumer surplus, the use of arbitration is likely to have the opposite effect. The industries from which the recent Supreme Court cases originated not only do not exhibit the industrial structure assumed by the proponents of expanded arbitration, but are also industries which exhibit features that facilitate consumer welfare reducing collusion.

The normative analysis addresses the fairness concerns. It is explicitly based upon John Rawls’ notion of “justice as fairness,” which can provide a lens to evaluate social institutions. This Rawlsian analysis considers the use of extended arbitration in consumer matters in the light of the earlier economic results. It suggests that the asymmetries present in the contractual allocation of rights serve as prima facie evidence that such arbitration–induced exclusions are prima facie unjust/unfair. However, as asymmetry is only a prima facie test, a generalized criticism of the arbitration exclusions (of the sort found in Congress and underlying the European regime) is overbroad.

Disinflation with labor market frictions

This paper studies disinflationary shocks in a non-linear New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions and moral hazard in the labor markets. Our focus is on understanding the wage formation process as well as welfare costs of disinflations in the presence of such labor market frictions.

The presence of imperfect information in labor markets imposes a lower bound on worker surplus that varies endogenously. Consequently equilibrium can take two forms depending on whether the no shirking condition is binding or not. We also evaluate both regimes from a welfare perspective when the economy is subject to a perfectly credible disinflationary shock.

Investigation of the process energy demand in polymer extrusion: a brief review and an experimental study

Extrusion is one of the fundamental production methods in the polymer processing industry and is used in the production of a large number of commodities in a diverse industrial sector. Being an energy intensive production method, process energy efficiency is one of the major concerns and the selection of the most energy efficient processing conditions is a key to reducing operating costs. Usually, extruders consume energy through the drive motor, barrel heaters, cooling fans, cooling water pumps, gear pumps, etc. Typically the drive motor is the largest energy consuming device in an extruder while barrel/die heaters are responsible for the second largest energy demand. This study is focused on investigating the total energy demand of an extrusion plant under various processing conditions while identifying ways to optimise the energy efficiency. Initially, a review was carried out on the monitoring and modelling of the energy consumption in polymer extrusion. Also, the power factor, energy demand and losses of a typical extrusion plant were discussed in detail. The mass throughput, total energy consumption and power factor of an extruder were experimentally observed over different processing conditions and the total extruder energy demand was modelled empirically and also using a commercially available extrusion simulation software. The experimental results show that extruder energy demand is heavily coupled between the machine, material and process parameters. The total power predicted by the simulation software exhibits a lagging offset compared with the experimental measurements. Empirical models are in good agreement with the experimental measurements and hence these can be used in studying process energy behaviour in detail and to identify ways to optimise the process energy efficiency.

Platform Competition as Network Contestability

Recent research in industrial organisation has investigated the essential place that middlemen have in the networks that make up our global economy. In this paper we attempt to understand how such middlemen compete with each other through a game theoretic analysis using novel techniques from decision-making under ambiguity.
We model a purposely abstract and reduced model of one middleman who provides a two-sided platform, mediating surplus-creating interactions between two users. The middleman evaluates uncertain outcomes under positional ambiguity, taking into account the possibility of the emergence of an alternative middleman offering intermediary services to the two users.
Surprisingly, we find many situations in which the middleman will purposely extract maximal gains from her position. Only if there is relatively low probability of devastating loss of business under competition, the middleman will adopt a more competitive attitude and extract less from her position.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

Review of the area planning process (a)

The area planning process continues and formal recommendations arising from it are now being brought forward as development proposals to amalgamate or close schools. At this point in the process the Education Committee requested some comment on five different aspects of the process: the impact of Area Planning to date; the validity of the surplus school vacancy calculation methodology; the Annual Area Profile information; the Needs Model (including as appropriate the implications of the Drumragh judgement); possible enhancements to the consultation and communication process;the facilitation of alternative cross-sectoral or cross-border solutions. This paper offers high level comment on each of these issues. In addition, the Education Committee facilitated a stakeholder consultation meeting in Parliament Buildings on 4 February, 2015. The broad themes that emerged in that discussion will also be mentioned in this paper.

Control of wild rubber extraction in the forests of northeast India, 1850-1880

This paper uses the history of rubber extraction to explore competing attempts to control the forest environments of Assam and beyond in the second half of the nineteenth century. Forest communities faced rival efforts at environmental control from both European and Indian traders, as well as from various centres of authority within the Raj. Government attempts to regulate rubber collection were undermined by the weak authority of the Raj in these regions, leading to widespread smuggling. Partly in response to the disruptive influence of rubber traders on the frontier, the Raj began to restrict the presence of outsiders in tribal regions, which came to be understood as distinct areas outside British control. When rubber yields from the forests nearest the Brahmaputra fell in the wake of intensive exploitation, India's scientific foresters demanded and from 1870 obtained the ability to regulate the Assamese forests, blaming indigenous rubber tapping strategies for the declining yields and arguing that Indian rubber could be ‘equal [to] if not better' than Amazonian rubber if only tappers would change their practices. The knowledge of the scientific foresters was fundamentally flawed, however, and their efforts to establish a new type of tapping practice failed. By 1880, the government had largely abandoned attempts to regulate wild Indian rubber, though wild sources continued to dominate the supply of global rubber until after 1910.

Challenging conventional risk assessment with respect to human exposure to multiple food contaminants in food: A case study using maize

Mycotoxins and heavy metals are ubiquitous in the environment and contaminate many foods. The widespread use of pesticides in crop production to control disease contributes further to the chemical contamination of foods. Thus multiple chemical contaminants threaten the safety of many food commodities; hence the present study used maize as a model crop to identify the severity in terms of human exposure when multiple contaminants are present. High Content Analysis (HCA) measuring multiple endpoints was used to determine cytotoxicity of complex mixtures of mycotoxins, heavy metals and pesticides. Endpoints included nuclear intensity (NI), nuclear area (NA), plasma membrane permeability (PMP), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) and mitochondrial mass (MM). At concentrations representing legal limits of each individual contaminant in maize (3. ng/ml ochratoxin A (OTA), 1. μg/ml fumonisin B1 (FB1), 2. ng/ml aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), 100. ng/ml cadmium (Cd), 150. ng/ml arsenic (As), 50. ng/ml chlorpyrifos (CP) and 5. μg/ml pirimiphos methyl (PM), the mixtures (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As) and (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) were cytotoxic for NA and MM endpoints with a difference of up to 13.6% (. p≤. 0.0001) and 12% (. p≤. 0.0001) respectively from control values. The most cytotoxic mixture was (tertiary mycotoxins plus Cd/As/CP/PM) across all 4 endpoints (NA, NI, MM and MMP) with increases up to 61.3%, 23.0%, 61.4% and 36.3% (. p≤. 0.0001) respectively. Synergy was evident for two endpoints (NI and MM) at concentrations contaminating maize above legal limits, with differences between expected and measured values of (6.2-12.4% (. p≤. 0.05-. p≤. 0.001) and 4.5-12.3% (. p≤. 0.05-. p≤. 0.001) for NI and MM, respectively. The study introduces for the first time, a holistic approach to identify the impact in terms of toxicity to humans when multiple chemical contaminants are present in foodstuffs. Governmental regulatory bodies must begin to contemplate how to safeguard the population when such mixtures of contaminants are found in foods and this study starts to address this critical issue.

Agriculture, settlement and society in Early Medieval Ireland

During the early medieval period, Ireland was politically organised into a large number of very small kingdoms. Unlike much of Western Europe, it had not been incorporated into the Roman Empire, and as a consequence, settlement remained exclusively rural in character until the Viking period. Extensive documentary, archaeological, zooarchaeological and macro-plant evidence provides a detailed reconstruction of the livestock and arable economy of the period. Cattle ownership formed the basis of wealth as well as being an indicator of status in society, and this is reflected in its clear dominance of the livestock economy during this period. From the eighth century onwards, however, cereal production appears to grow in importance as subsistence farming gave way to the production of agricultural surplus. This is reflected in cereal diversification and in the construction of watermills and more efficient grain-drying kilns. At the same time, settlement underwent significant changes and the relative importance of cattle in some areas began to decline.