Data assimilation with correlated observation errors: experiments with a 1-D shallow water model

Remote sensing observations often have correlated errors, but the correlations are typically ignored in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction. The assumption of zero correlations is often used with data thinning methods, resulting in a loss of information. As operational centres move towards higher-resolution forecasting, there is a requirement to retain data providing detail on appropriate scales. Thus an alternative approach to dealing with observation error correlations is needed. In this article, we consider several approaches to approximating observation error correlation matrices: diagonal approximations, eigendecomposition approximations and Markov matrices. These approximations are applied in incremental variational assimilation experiments with a 1-D shallow water model using synthetic observations. Our experiments quantify analysis accuracy in comparison with a reference or ‘truth’ trajectory, as well as with analyses using the ‘true’ observation error covariance matrix. We show that it is often better to include an approximate correlation structure in the observation error covariance matrix than to incorrectly assume error independence. Furthermore, by choosing a suitable matrix approximation, it is feasible and computationally cheap to include error correlation structure in a variational data assimilation algorithm.

On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first to demonstrate that the Earth’s land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. This short note marks the 75th anniversary of Callendar’s landmark study and demonstrates that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans

The extent to which past climate change has dictated the pattern and timing of the out-of-Africa expansion by anatomically modern humans is currently unclear [Stewart JR, Stringer CB (2012) Science 335:1317–1321]. In particular, the incompleteness of the fossil record makes it difficult to quantify the effect of climate. Here, we take a different approach to this problem; rather than relying on the appearance of fossils or archaeological evidence to determine arrival times in different parts of the world, we use patterns of genetic variation in modern human populations to determine the plausibility of past demographic parameters. We develop a spatially explicit model of the expansion of anatomically modern humans and use climate reconstructions over the past 120 ky based on the Hadley Centre global climate model HadCM3 to quantify the possible effects of climate on human demography. The combinations of demographic parameters compatible with the current genetic makeup of worldwide populations indicate a clear effect of climate on past population densities. Our estimates of this effect, based on population genetics, capture the observed relationship between current climate and population density in modern hunter–gatherers worldwide, providing supporting evidence for the realism of our approach. Furthermore, although we did not use any archaeological and anthropological data to inform the model, the arrival times in different continents predicted by our model are also broadly consistent with the fossil and archaeological records. Our framework provides the most accurate spatiotemporal reconstruction of human demographic history available at present and will allow for a greater integration of genetic and archaeological evidence.

Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system

The optimal utilisation of hyper-spectral satellite observations in numerical weather prediction is often inhibited by incorrectly assuming independent interchannel observation errors. However, in order to represent these observation-error covariance structures, an accurate knowledge of the true variances and correlations is needed. This structure is likely to vary with observation type and assimilation system. The work in this article presents the initial results for the estimation of IASI interchannel observation-error correlations when the data are processed in the Met Office one-dimensional (1D-Var) and four-dimensional (4D-Var) variational assimilation systems. The method used to calculate the observation errors is a post-analysis diagnostic which utilises the background and analysis departures from the two systems. The results show significant differences in the source and structure of the observation errors when processed in the two different assimilation systems, but also highlight some common features. When the observations are processed in 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are approximately half the size of the error variances used in the current operational system and are very close in size to the instrument noise, suggesting that this is the main source of error. The errors contain no consistent correlations, with the exception of a handful of spectrally close channels. When the observations are processed in 4D-Var, we again find that the observation errors are being overestimated operationally, but the overestimation is significantly larger for many channels. In contrast to 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are often larger than the instrument noise in 4D-Var. It is postulated that horizontal errors of representation, not seen in 1D-Var, are a significant contributor to the overall error here. Finally, observation errors diagnosed from 4D-Var are found to contain strong, consistent correlation structures for channels sensitive to water vapour and surface properties.

Coupled subdaily and multiweek cycles during the lava dome erupt of Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Observations of volcanoes extruding andesitic lava to produce lava domes often reveal cyclic behaviour. At Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, cycles with sub-daily and multi-week periods have been recognised on many occasions. These two types of cycle have been modelled separately as stick-slip magma flow at the junction between a dyke and an overlying cylindrical conduit (Costa et al. 2012), and as the filling and discharge of magma through the elastic-walled dyke (Costa et al., 2007a) respectively. Here, we couple these two models to simulate the behaviour over a period of well-observed multi-week cycles, with accompanying sub-daily cycles, from 13 May to 21 September 1997. The coupled model captures well the asymmetrical first-order behaviour: the first 40% of the multi-week cycle consists of high rates of lava extrusion during short period/high amplitude sub-daily cycles as the dyke reservoir discharges itself. The remainder of the cycle involves increasing pressurization as more magma is stored, and extrusion rate falls, followed by a gradual increase in the period of the sub-daily cycles.

From Rio to Copenhagen: multilateral agreements, disagreements and situated actions

Governing climate change is arguably one of the most complex problems, environmental or otherwise, that the global community has had to contend with. This chapter highlights the innovations in governance that have characterized the global climate change regime as it sought to respond to and manage these complexities, political imperatives and competing interests. We suggest that the key contestations and innovations within climate governance can be understood in terms of four themes/questions all of which relate to issues of justice and equity.

Testing the Revised Hierarchical Model: evidence from word associations

The main purpose of the work described in this paper is to examine the extent to which the L2 developmental changes predicted by Kroll and Stewart's (1994) Revised Hierarchical Model (RHM) can be understood by word association response behaviour. The RHM attempts to account for the relative “strength of the links between words and concepts in each of the bilingual's languages” (Kroll, Van Hell, Tokowicz & Green, 2010, p. 373). It proposes that bilinguals with higher L2 proficiency tend to rely less on mediation, while less proficient L2 learners tend to rely on mediation and access L2 words by translating from L1 equivalents. In this paper, I present findings from a simple word association task. More proficient learners provided a greater proportion of collocational links, suggesting that they mediate less when compared to less proficient learners. The results provide tentative support for Kroll and Stewart's model

In vitro and in vivo models of colorectal cancer: antigenotoxic activity of berries.

The etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), a common cause of cancer-related mortality globally, has strong associations with diet. There is considerable epidemiological evidence that fruits and vegetables are associated with reduced risk of CRC. This paper reviews the extensive evidence, both from in vitro studies and animal models, that components of berry fruits can modulate biomarkers of DNA damage and that these effects may be potentially chemoprotective, given the likely role that oxidative damage plays in mutation rate and cancer risk. Human intervention trials with berries are generally consistent in indicating a capacity to significantly decrease oxidative damage to DNA, but represent limited evidence for anticarcinogenicity, relying as they do on surrogate risk markers. To understand the effects of berry consumption on colorectal cancer risk, future studies will need to be well controlled, with defined berry extracts, using suitable and clinically relevant end points and considering the importance of the gut microbiota.

Tracking (poly)phenol components from raspberries in ileal fluid

The (poly)phenols in ileal fluid after ingestion of raspberries were analysed by targeted and non-targeted LC-MSn approaches. Targeted approaches identified major anthocyanin and ellagitannin components at varying recoveries and with considerable inter-individual variation. Non-targeted LC-MSn analysis using an Orbitrap mass spectrometer gave exact mass MS data which was sifted using a software program to select peaks that changed significantly after supplementation. This method confirmed the recovery of the targeted components but also identified novel raspberry-specific metabolites. Some components (including ellagitannin and previously unidentified proanthocyanidin derivatives) may have arisen from raspberry seeds that survived intact in ileal samples. Other components include potential breakdown products of anthocyanins, unidentified components and phenolic metabolites formed in either the gut epithelia or after absorption into the circulatory system and efflux back into the gut lumen. The possible physiological roles of the ileal metabolites in the large bowel are discussed.

Comparison of in vivo and in vitro digestion on polyphenol composition in lingonberries: potential impact on colonic health

The composition of polyphenols in ileal fluid samples obtained from an ileostomy subject after lingonberry intake was compared with lingonberry extracts obtained after simulated in vitro digestion (IVDL) and subsequent faecal fermentation (IVFL). HPLC-PDA-MS/MS analysis confirmed similar patterns of lingonberry (poly)phenolic metabolism after the in vivo and in vitro digestion, with reduced recovery of anthocyanins and a similar pattern of recovery for proanthocyanidins observed for both methods of digestion. On the other hand, the IVFL sample contained none of the original (poly)phenolic components but was enriched in simple aromatic components. Digested and fermented extracts exhibited significant (P < 0.05) anti-genotoxic (Comet assay), anti-mutagenic (Mutation Frequency assay), and anti-invasive (Matrigel Invasion assay) effects in human cell culture models of colorectal cancer at physiologically-relevant doses (0-50 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents). The ileal fluid induced significant anti-genotoxic activity (P < 0.05), but at a higher concentration (200 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents) than the IVDL. Despite extensive structural modification following digestion and fermentation, lingonberry extracts retained their bioactivity in vitro. This reinforces the need for studies to consider the impact of digestion when investigating bioactivity of dietary phytochemicals.

Circus

A collection of nine short stories.

Parasitoids select plants more heavily infested with their caterpillar hosts: a new approach to aid interpretation of plant headspace volatiles

Plants produce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in response to herbivore attack, and these VOCs can be used by parasitoids of the herbivore as host location cues. We investigated the behavioural responses of the parasitoid Cotesia vestalis to VOCs from a plant–herbivore complex consisting of cabbage plants (Brassica oleracea) and the parasitoids host caterpillar, Plutella xylostella. A Y-tube olfactometer was used to compare the parasitoids' responses to VOCs produced as a result of different levels of attack by the caterpillar and equivalent levels of mechanical damage. Headspace VOC production by these plant treatments was examined using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Cotesia vestalis were able to exploit quantitative and qualitative differences in volatile emissions, from the plant–herbivore complex, produced as a result of different numbers of herbivores feeding. Cotesia vestalis showed a preference for plants with more herbivores and herbivore damage, but did not distinguish between different levels of mechanical damage. Volatile profiles of plants with different levels of herbivores/herbivore damage could also be separated by canonical discriminant analyses. Analyses revealed a number of compounds whose emission increased significantly with herbivore load, and these VOCs may be particularly good indicators of herbivore number, as the parasitoid processes cues from its external environment

Organic and conventional fertilizer effects on a tritrophic interaction: parasitism, performance and preference of Cotesia vestalis

Interest in sustainable farming methods that rely on alternatives to conventional synthetic fertilizers and pesticides is increasing. Sustainable farming methods often utilize natural populations of predatory and parasitic species to control populations of herbivores, which may be potential pest species. We investigated the effects of several types of fertilizer, including those typical of sustainable and conventional farming systems, on the interaction between a herbivore and parasitoid. The effects of fertilizer type on percentage parasitism, parasitoid performance, parasitoid attack behaviour and responses to plant volatiles were examined using a model Brassica system, consisting of Brassica oleracea var capitata, Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera) larvae and Cotesia vestalis (parasitoid). Percentage parasitism was greatest for P. xylostella larvae feeding on plants that had received either a synthetic ammonium nitrate fertilizer or were unfertilized, in comparison to those receiving a composite fertilizer containing hoof and horn. Parasitism was intermediate on plants fertilized with an organically produced animal manure. Male parasitoid tibia length showed the same pattern as percentage parasitism, an indication that offspring performance was maximized on the treatments preferred by female parasitoids for oviposition. Percentage parasitism and parasitoid size were not correlated with foliar nitrogen concentration. The parasitoids did not discriminate between hosts feeding on plants in the four fertilizer treatments in parasitoid behaviour assays, but showed a preference for unfertilized plants in olfactometer experiments. The percentage parasitism and tibia length results provide support for the preference–performance hypothesis

The perceived impact of the National Health Service on personalised nutrition service delivery among the UK public

Personalised nutrition (PN) has the potential to reduce disease risk and optimise health and performance. Although previous research has shown good acceptance of the concept of PN in the UK, preferences regarding the delivery of a PN service (e.g. online v. face-to-face) are not fully understood. It is anticipated that the presence of a free at point of delivery healthcare system, the National Health Service (NHS), in the UK may have an impact on end-user preferences for deliverances. To determine this, supplementary analysis of qualitative data obtained from focus group discussions on PN service delivery, collected as part of the Food4Me project in the UK and Ireland, was undertaken. Irish data provided comparative analysis of a healthcare system that is not provided free of charge at the point of delivery to the entire population. Analyses were conducted using the 'framework approach' described by Rabiee (Focus-group interview and data analysis. Proc Nutr Soc 63, 655-660). There was a preference for services to be led by the government and delivered face-to-face, which was perceived to increase trust and transparency, and add value. Both countries associated paying for nutritional advice with increased commitment and motivation to follow guidelines. Contrary to Ireland, however, and despite the perceived benefit of paying, UK discussants still expected PN services to be delivered free of charge by the NHS. Consideration of this unique challenge of free healthcare that is embedded in the NHS culture will be crucial when introducing PN to the UK.

Factors influencing European consumer uptake of personalised nutrition: results of a qualitative analysis

The aim of this research was to explore consumer perceptions of personalised nutrition and to compare these across three different levels of ‘‘medicalization’’: lifestyle assessment (no blood sampling); phenotypic assessment (blood sampling); genomic assessment (blood and buccal sampling). The protocol was developed from two pilot focus groups conducted in the UK. Two focus groups (one comprising only ‘‘older’’ individuals between 30 and 60 years old, the other of adults 18–65 yrs of age) were run in the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Germany (N = 16). The analysis (guided using grounded theory) suggested that personalised nutrition was perceived in terms of benefit to health and fitness and that convenience was an important driver of uptake. Negative attitudes were associated with internet delivery but not with personalised nutrition per se. Barriers to uptake were linked to broader technological issues associated with data protection, trust in regulator and service providers. Services that required a fee were expected to be of better quality and more secure. An efficacious, transparent and trustworthy regulatory framework for personalised nutrition is required to alleviate consumer concern. In addition, developing trust in service providers is important if such services to be successful.