Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Diagnostic accuracy, effectiveness and cost for cognitive impairment and dementia screening of three short cognitive tests applicable to illiterates

BACKGROUND Illiteracy, a universal problem, limits the utilization of the most widely used short cognitive tests. Our objective was to assess and compare the effectiveness and cost for cognitive impairment (CI) and dementia (DEM) screening of three short cognitive tests applicable to illiterates. METHODS Phase III diagnostic test evaluation study was performed during one year in four Primary Care centers, prospectively including individuals with suspicion of CI or DEM. All underwent the Eurotest, Memory Alteration Test (M@T), and Phototest, applied in a balanced manner. Clinical, functional, and cognitive studies were independently performed in a blinded fashion in a Cognitive Behavioral Neurology Unit, and the gold standard diagnosis was established by consensus of expert neurologists on the basis of these results. Effectiveness of tests was assessed as the proportion of correct diagnoses (diagnostic accuracy [DA]) and the kappa index of concordance (k) with respect to gold standard diagnoses. Costs were based on public prices at the time and hospital accounts. RESULTS The study included 139 individuals: 47 with DEM, 36 with CI, and 56 without CI. No significant differences in effectiveness were found among the tests. For DEM screening: Eurotest (k = 0.71 [0.59-0.83], DA = 0.87 [0.80-0.92]), M@T (k = 0.72 [0.60-0.84], DA = 0.87 [0.80-0.92]), Phototest (k = 0.70 [0.57-0.82], DA = 0.86 [0.79-0.91]). For CI screening: Eurotest (k = 0.67 [0.55-0.79]; DA = 0.83 [0.76-0.89]), M@T (k = 0.52 [0.37-0.67]; DA = 0.80 [0.72-0.86]), Phototest (k = 0.59 [0.46-0.72]; DA = 0.79 [0.71-0.86]). There were no differences in the cost of DEM screening, but the cost of CI screening was significantly higher with M@T (330.7 ± 177.1 €, mean ± sd) than with Eurotest (294.1 ± 195.0 €) or Phototest (296.0 ± 196. 5 €). Application time was shorter with Phototest (2.8 ± 0.8 min) than with Eurotest (7.1 ± 1.8 min) or M@T (6.8 ± 2.2 min). CONCLUSIONS Eurotest, M@T, and Phototest are equally effective. Eurotest and Phototest are both less expensive options but Phototest is the most efficient, requiring the shortest application time.

A quantitative genetic signature of senescence in a short-lived perennial plant.

The evolution of senescence (the physiological decline of organisms with age) poses an apparent paradox because it represents a failure of natural selection to increase the survival and reproductive performance of organisms. The paradox can be resolved if natural selection becomes less effective with age, because the death of postreproductive individuals should have diminished effects on Darwinian fitness [1, 2]. A substantial body of empirical work is consistent with this prediction for animals, which transmit their genes to progeny via an immortal germline. However, such evidence is still lacking in plants, which lack a germline and whose reproduction is diffuse and modular across the soma. Here, we provide experimental evidence for a genetic basis of senescence in the short-lived perennial plant Silene latifolia. Our pedigree-based analysis revealed a marked increase with age in the additive genetic variance of traits closely associated with fitness. This result thus extends to plants the quantitative genetic support for the evolutionary theory of senescence.

Comparison of the NEO-FFI, the NEO-FFI-R and an alternative short version of the NEO-PI-R (NEO-60) in Swiss and Spanish samples

Three different short versions of the NEO-PI-R were compared: The NEO-FFI, the NEO-FFI-R, and a new short version developed in the current study (NEO-60). This new version is intended to improve the psychometric characteristics of the original NEO-FFI, specially in regard to the factor structure at the item-level. A French version of the NEO-PI-R was given to 1090 Swiss subjects, whereas the Spanish (Castilian) version of the NEO-PI-R was administered to 1006 Spanish subjects. Results replicate the limitations of the NEO-FFI already found in other countries. Compared to the NEO-FFI, reliability coefficients and factor structure was enhanced by the NEO-FFI-R and the NEO-60 in both samples, although substantial differences were not found. The factor structure of the NEO-60 shows the best fit since only three items do not load mainly on their own factor in both samples. Besides, correlations between items and NEO-PI-R domain scores are also higher for the items included in the NEO-60 version. On the other hand, convergent correlations with the NEO-PI-R dimensions were satisfactory irrespective of the version, and confirmatory factor analyses show slight differences among the different models generated after the three short versions.

Short-term therapy with simvastatin reduces inflammatory mediators and heart inflammation during the acute phase of experimental Chagas disease

Trypanosoma cruzi infection induces progressive cardiac inflammation that leads to fibrosis and modifications in the heart architecture and functionality. Statins, such as 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG CoA) reductase inhibitors, have been studied due to their pleiotropic roles in modulating the inflammatory response. Our goal was to evaluate the effects of simvastatin on the cardiac inflammatory process using a cardiotropic strain of T. cruzi in a murine model of Chagas cardiomyopathy. C57BL/6 mice were infected with 500 trypomastigotes of the Colombian strain of T. cruzi and treated with an oral dose of simvastatin (20 mg/Kg/day) for one month and inflammatory and morphometric parameters were subsequently evaluated in the serum and in the heart, respectively. Simvastatin reduced the total cholesterol and inflammatory mediators (interferon-gamma, tumour necrosis factor-alpha, CCL2 and CCL5) in the serum and in the heart tissue at 30 days post-infection. Additionally, a proportional reduction in heart weight and inflammatory infiltration was observed. Simvastatin also reduced epimastigote proliferation in a dose-dependent manner in vitro and was able to reduce blood trypomastigotes and heart amastigote nests during the acute phase of Chagas disease in vivo. Based on these data, we conclude that simvastatin exerts a modulatory effect on the inflammatory mediators that are elicited by the Colombian strain of T. cruzi and ameliorates the heart damage that is observed in a murine model of Chagas disease.

Are there positive emotions in short-term dynamic psychotherapy or is it all Freude-less ?

Psychodynamic therapists are often suspicious of positive emotions and consider them to be nothing more than a form of denial or of another defense aiming to diminish painful or difficult affects. Positive emotions seem to exist only through the absence of negative emotions or as something that may happen outside of therapy. On the other hand, clinicians also agree that psychoanalytic work could not be successful without such positive emotions as interest, pleasure, surprise and creativity. Contemporary psychoanalytic thinking and new research findings in the area of relationship regulation are likely to give positive emotions an increasingly prominent place in dynamically oriented therapies. With today's emphasis on the therapeutic relationship and intersubjectivity, the time appears right to integrate positive emotions more formally into psychodynamic clinical theories.

Ecoepidemiology, short history and control of Chagas disease in the endemic countries and the new challenge for non-endemic countries

Chagas disease is maintained in nature through the interchange of three cycles: the wild, peridomestic and domestic cycles. The wild cycle, which is enzootic, has existed for millions of years maintained between triatomines and wild mammals. Human infection was only detected in mummies from 4,000-9,000 years ago, before the discovery of the disease by Carlos Chagas in 1909. With the beginning of deforestation in the Americas, two-three centuries ago for the expansion of agriculture and livestock rearing, wild mammals, which had been the food source for triatomines, were removed and new food sources started to appear in peridomestic areas: chicken coops, corrals and pigsties. Some accidental human cases could also have occurred prior to the triatomines in peridomestic areas. Thus, triatomines progressively penetrated households and formed the domestic cycle of Chagas disease. A new epidemiological, economic and social problem has been created through the globalisation of Chagas disease, due to legal and illegal migration of individuals infected by Trypanosoma cruzi or presenting Chagas disease in its varied clinical forms, from endemic countries in Latin America to non-endemic countries in North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania, particularly to the United States of America and Spain. The main objective of the present paper was to present a general view of the interchanges between the wild, peridomestic and domestic cycles of the disease, the development of T. cruzi among triatomine, their domiciliation and control initiatives, the characteristics of the disease in countries in the Americas and the problem of migration to non-endemic countries.

QFT control for vibration reduction in structures equipped with MR dampers

This short paper addresses the problem of designing a QFT (quantitative feedback theory) based controllers for the vibration reduction in a 6-story building structure equipped with shear-mode magnetorheological dampers. A new methodology is proposed for characterizing the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of the MR damper through the uncertainty template in the Nichols chart. The design procedure for QFT control design is briefly presented

A combined analysis of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality within the EMECAM project.

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.

Surgery for incarcerated hernia: short-term outcome with or without mesh.

BACKGROUND: Incarcerated hernias represent about 5-15 % of all operated hernias. Tension-free mesh is the preferred technique for elective surgery due to low recurrence rates. There is however currently no consensus on the use of mesh for the treatment of incarcerated hernias, especially in case of bowel resection. AIM: The aims of this study were (i) to report our current practice for the treatment of incarcerated hernias, (ii) to identify risk factors for postoperative complications, and (iii) to assess the safety of mesh placement in potentially infected surgical fields. METHODS: This retrospective study included 166 consecutive patients who underwent emergency surgery for incarcerated hernia between January 2007 and January 2012 in two university hospitals. Demographics, surgical details, and short-term outcome were collected. Univariate analysis was employed to identify risk factors for overall, infectious, and major complications. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (50.6 %) presented inguinal hernias, 43 femoral (25.9 %), 37 umbilical hernias (22.3 %), and 2 mixed hernias (1.2 %), respectively. Mesh was placed in 64 patients (38.5 %), including 5 patients with concomitant bowel resection. Overall morbidity occurred in 56 patients (32.7 %), and 8 patients (4.8 %) developed surgical site infections (SSI). Univariate risk factors for overall complications were ASA grade 3/4 (P = 0.03), diabetes (P = 0.05), cardiopathy (P = 0.001), aspirin use (P = 0.023), and bowel resection (P = 0.001) which was also the only identified risk factor for SSI (P = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, only bowel incarceration was associated with a higher rate of major morbidity (OR = 14.04; P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Morbidity after surgery for incarcerated hernia remains high and depends on comorbidities and surgical presentation. The use of mesh could become current practice even in case of bowel resection.

Short- and long-term effects of litter size manipulation in a small wild-derived rodent.

Iteroparous organisms maximize their overall fitness by optimizing their reproductive effort over multiple reproductive events. Hence, changes in reproductive effort are expected to have both short- and long-term consequences on parents and their offspring. In laboratory rodents, manipulation of reproductive efforts during lactation has however revealed few short-term reproductive adjustments, suggesting that female laboratory rodents express maximal rather than optimal levels of reproductive investment as observed in semelparous organisms. Using a litter size manipulation (LSM) experiment in a small wild-derived rodent (the common vole; Microtus arvalis), we show that females altered their reproductive efforts in response to LSM, with females having higher metabolic rates and showing alternative body mass dynamics when rearing an enlarged rather than reduced litter. Those differences in female reproductive effort were nonetheless insufficient to fully match their pups' energy demand, pups being lighter at weaning in enlarged litters. Interestingly, female reproductive effort changes had long-term consequences, with females that had previously reared an enlarged litter being lighter at the birth of their subsequent litter and producing lower quality pups. We discuss the significance of using wild-derived animals in studies of reproductive effort optimization.