Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Efficacy and safety of certolizumab pegol in an unselected crohn's disease population: 26-week data of the FACTS II survey.

BACKGROUND: Certolizumab pegol (Cimzia, CZP) was approved for the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD) patients in 2007 in Switzerland as the first country worldwide. This prospective phase IV study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of CZP over 26 weeks in a multicenter cohort of practice-based patients. METHODS: Evaluation questionnaires at baseline, week 6, and week 26 were completed by gastroenterologists in hospitals and private practices. Adverse events were evaluated according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. RESULTS: Sixty patients (38F/22M) were included; 53% had complicated disease (stricturing or penetrating), 45% had undergone prior CD-related surgery. All patients had prior exposure to systemic steroids, 96% to immunomodulators, 73% to infliximab, and 43% to adalimumab. A significant decrease of the Harvey-Bradshaw Index (HBI) was observed under CZP therapy (12.2 ± 4.9 at week 0 versus 6.3 ± 4.7 at week 6 and 6.7 ± 5.3 at week 26, both P < 0.001). Response and remission rates were 70% and 40% (week 6) and 67% and 36%, respectively (week 26). The complete perianal fistula closure rate was 36% at week 6 and 55% at week 26. The frequency of adverse drug reactions attributed to CZP was 5%. CZP was continued in 88% of patients beyond week 6 and in 67% beyond week 26. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of CD patients with predominantly complicated disease behavior, CZP proved to be effective in induction and maintenance of response and remission. This series provides the first evidence of CZP's effectiveness in perianal fistulizing CD in clinical practice.

Cholestérol, pression artérielle et fumée de cigarette dans la population en Suisse: le projet MONICA. [Cholesterol, blood-pressure and cigarette-smoking in switzerland - the MONICA-project].

Elevated plasma cholesterol, high blood pressure and cigarette smoking are three major risk factors for coronary heart disease. Within the framework of Switzerland's participation in the multicenter study MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease), proposed by the WHO, a first risk factor survey was conducted in a representative sample of the population (25-74 years) of two reporting units (cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, canton of Tessin). A high blood cholesterol level (>6,7 mmol/l) is the most common risk factor for coronary heart disease among the studied population. Among men, about 13% have elevated blood pressure, the proportion being about one in ten among women; these proportions increase with age and are slightly above these values in Tessin. Cigarette smoking is still a common behavior; between 25 and 45 years one third of the population (male and female) regularly smoke cigarettes.

Ecologie d'une population de Crocidura russula en milieu rural montagnard (Insectivora, Soricidae)

Crocidura russula is restricted to the vicinity of human dwellings in the northern parts of its range and in the mountain regions of Central and Western Europe. In order to better understand the causes of such a distribution, a population was studied in a rural mountain habitat (750 m above sea level), where the species was found almost exclusively in the neighbourhood of human dwellings. The study was conducted on a 2000 m2 area, over a period of 20 months, by live-trapping and radioactive tracking. The abundance, the local distribution and the behaviour of the shrews vary greatly throughout the year. In summer, they chiefly inhabit areas with a dense herbaceous cover or shruby vegetation; they are mainly active at ground level, in the litter. In autumn, changes in the environmental conditions (lowering of temperatures, subsidence of the herbaceous vegetation, presence of snow) create important energetic problems. At that time, the shrews gradually become more active around and inside compost-heaps and buildings. The microclimate of such environments is mild and prey are numerous. The winter population is reduced (reaching its lowest level in late winter) and consists only of shrews frequenting these sites. The observed spatial distribution is the result of the energetic dependence of the wintering shrews on human dwellings and their surroundings. This dependence is probably related to the physiological characteristics of the species. In the prospected region, Crocidura russula is the only shrew which regularly takes advantage of man-made habitats; the maintenance of the species in the rural mountain enviroment is probably favoured by the social organization of the populations in winter. The other native Soricids are observed only occasionaly int he neighbourhood of human dwellings.

Spatial and seasonal trends of a natural population of Biomphalaria occidentalis in northeastern Argentina

This study aims to analyze the age of a population of Biomphalaria occidentalis on a pound of Riachuelo river basin, wich is one of the three most important Middle Paraná river affluents in Corrientes province. Samples were drawn from three stations, were spatial and temporal numerical variations of the snail, as well as its relation with different environmental parameters, mainly temperature, rainfall, pH and conductivity, were analyzed. Snail abundance is given in number of individuals/hour. The differences between the three sampling stations, estimated by nonparametric tests, was nonsignificant. A relative scale to the greatest shell diameter was employed to build the age pyramids. Temporal fluctuations of snail abundance correlated negatively with the highest monthly accumulated temperatures (P < 0.05). Although different floristic compositions were observed at the three stations, no significant numerical variations were detected in B. occidentalis spatial distribution. Reproductive activity took place between March-April and November with overlapping cohort system. During summer (December-Febuary) mortality increased along with temperature and reproductive activity was not evident.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

A systematic review of longitudinal population-based studies on the predictors of smoking cessation in adolescent and young adult smokers

Le tabagisme est responsable de plus de 5 million de décès par an à travers le monde. En Suisse (2010), la prévalence de fumeurs chez les 14-19 ans était de 22% et la prévalence d'ex-fumeurs de 3%, taux qui reste relativement stable au fil des dernières années. La plupart des jeunes fumeurs désirant arrêter de fumer rencontrent des difficultés pour y parvenir. Les revues empiriques ont conclu que les programmes ayant pour but l'arrêt du tabagisme chez les jeunes ont une efficacité limitée. Afin de fournir une base solide de connaissances pour les programmes d'interventions contre le tabagisme, les déterminants de l'auto-cessation ont besoin d'être compris. Nous avons systématiquement recherché dans PUBMED et EMBASE des études longitudinales, basées sur la population, portant sur les déterminants de l'auto-cessation chez des adolescents et des jeunes adultes fumeurs. Nous avons passé en revue 4'502 titres et 871 abstracts, tous examinés indépendamment par deux et trois examinateurs, respectivement. Les critères d'inclusion étant : articles publiés entre janvier 1984 et août 2010, concernant les jeunes entre 10 et 29 ans et avoir une définition de cessation de fumer d'au moins 6 mois. Neuf articles ont été retenus pour une analyse détaillée. Les données suivantes ont été extraites de chaque article : le lieu de l'étude, la période étudiée, la durée du suivi, le nombre de collecte de données, la taille de l'échantillon, l'âge ou l'année scolaire des participants, le nombre de participants qui arrêtent de fumer, le status tabagique lors de la première collecte, la définition de cessation, les co-variantes et la méthode analytique. Le nombre d'études qui montrent une association significativement significative entre un déterminant et l'arrêt du tabagisme a été tabulé à partir de toutes les études qui ont évalués ce déterminant. Trois des neufs articles retenus ont défini l'arrêt du tabagisme comme une abstinence de plus de 6 mois et les six autres comme 12 mois d'abstinence. Malgré l'hétérogénéité des méthodes utilisées, cinq facteurs principaux ressortent comme prédicteur de l'arrêt du tabagisme : 1) ne pas avoir d'amis qui fument, 2) ne pas avoir l'intention de continuer de fumer dans le futur, 3) résister à la pression sociale, 4) être âgé de plus de 18 ans lors de la première cigarette, et 5) avoir un avis négatif au sujet du tabagisme. D'autres facteurs sont significatifs mais ne sont évalués que dans peu d'articles. La littérature au sujet des prédicteurs de cessation chez les adolescents et les jeunes adultes est peu développée. Cependant, nous remarquons que les facteurs que nous avons mis en évidence ne dépendent pas que de l'individu, mais aussi de l'environnement. La prévention du tabagisme peut se centrer sur les bienfaits de l'arrêt (p.ex., par rapport à l'asthme ou les performances sportives) et ainsi motiver les jeunes gens à songer d'arrêter de fumer. Une taxation plus lourde sur le prix des cigarettes peut être envisagée afin de retarder l'âge de la première cigarette. Les publicités anti-tabagiques (non sponsorisées par les entreprises de tabac) peuvent influencer la perception des jeunes par rapport au tabagisme, renforçant ou créant une attitude anti-tabagique. Les prochaines campagnes anti- tabac devraient donc tenir compte de ces différents aspects.

Clinical and biological determinants of kidney outcomes in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Prospective studies on factors associated with adverse kidney outcomes in European general populations are scant. Also, few studies consider the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. METHODS: We used baseline (2003-2006) and 5-year follow-up data of adults from the general population to evaluate the effect of baseline kidney function and proteinuria on the association of clinical, biological (e.g. uric acid, homocysteine, cytokines), and socioeconomic factors with change in kidney function, rapid decline in kidney function, and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albuminuria-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were collected. Kidney outcomes were modeled using multivariable regressions. RESULTS: A total of 4,441 subjects were included in the analysis. Among participants without CKD at baseline, 11.4% presented rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. After adjustment for baseline eGFR and log UACR, only age (Odds Ratio; 1.25 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]), diabetes (OR 1.48 [1.03-2.13]), education (OR middle vs. high 1.51 [1.08-2.11]) and log ultrasensitive CRP (OR 1.16 [1.05-1.22]) were associated with rapid decline in eGFR or incident CKD. Baseline log UACR (OR 1.18 [1.06-1.32]) but not eGFR was associated with rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. CONCLUSION: In addition to age and diabetes, education and CRP levels are associated with adverse kidney outcomes independently of baseline kidney function.

The effect of host social system on parasite population genetic structure: comparative population genetics of two ectoparasitic mites and their bat hosts.

BACKGROUND: The population genetic structure of a parasite, and consequently its ability to adapt to a given host, is strongly linked to its own life history as well as the life history of its host. While the effects of parasite life history on their population genetic structure have received some attention, the effect of host social system has remained largely unstudied. In this study, we investigated the population genetic structure of two closely related parasitic mite species (Spinturnix myoti and Spinturnix bechsteini) with very similar life histories. Their respective hosts, the greater mouse-eared bat (Myotis myotis) and the Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii) have social systems that differ in several substantial features, such as group size, mating system and dispersal patterns. RESULTS: We found that the two mite species have strongly differing population genetic structures. In S. myoti we found high levels of genetic diversity and very little pairwise differentiation, whereas in S. bechsteini we observed much less diversity, strongly differentiated populations and strong temporal turnover. These differences are likely to be the result of the differences in genetic drift and dispersal opportunities afforded to the two parasites by the different social systems of their hosts. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that host social system can strongly influence parasite population structure. As a result, the evolutionary potential of these two parasites with very similar life histories also differs, thereby affecting the risk and evolutionary pressure exerted by each parasite on its host.

Genes associated with retinitis pigmentosa and allied diseases are frequently mutated in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Retinitis pigmentosa and other hereditary retinal degenerations (HRD) are rare genetic diseases leading to progressive blindness. Recessive HRD are caused by mutations in more than 100 different genes. Laws of population genetics predict that, on a purely theoretical ground, such a high number of genes should translate into an extremely elevated frequency of unaffected carriers of mutations. In this study we estimate the proportion of these individuals within the general population, via the analyses of data from whole-genome sequencing. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We screened complete and high-quality genome sequences from 46 control individuals from various world populations for HRD mutations, using bioinformatic tools developed in-house. All mutations detected in silico were validated by Sanger sequencing. We identified clear-cut, null recessive HRD mutations in 10 out of the 46 unaffected individuals analyzed (∼22%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our data, approximately one in 4-5 individuals from the general population may be a carrier of null mutations that are responsible for HRD. This would be the highest mutation carrier frequency so far measured for a class of Mendelian disorders, especially considering that missenses and other forms of pathogenic changes were not included in our assessment. Among other things, our results indicate that the risk for a consanguineous couple of generating a child with a blinding disease is particularly high, compared to other genetic conditions.

Changing the awareness of low vitamin D status in a rheumatology population: a pre/post-study.

INTRODUCTION: In 2009 hypovitaminosis D was highly prevalent in a population of Swiss rheumatology patients (86%). We aimed to evaluate the evolution of vitamin D status in the same population two years later, after the results of the first study were disseminated to local physicians and patients, in order to determine the evolution of the problem and the impact of physician information. METHOD: Patients in our rheumatology clinic were screened for 25-OH vitamin D. Results were categorised as: deficient (<10 ng/ml or <25 nmol/l), insufficient (10 to 30 ng/ml or 25 to 75 nmol/l) or normal (>30 ng/ml or >75 nmol/l). We also used another cut-off of 20 ng/ml (50 nmol/l). We evaluated the evolution of 25-OH vitamin D dosages and vitamin D3 prescriptions between 2008 and 2011 in our institution and the number of publications on vitamin D in three important medical journals of the French speaking part of Switzerland. RESULTS: Compared with 2009, significantly more patients had normal results in 2011. Fifty-two percent of patients had levels >20 ng/ml in 2009 and 66% in 2011, difference statistically significant (p = 0.001). During the years separating the two study periods the number of 25-OH vitamin D dosages and the prescription of high doses of vitamin D3 increased in our hospital. In addition the number of publications on vitamin D increased between 2008 and 2011. CONCLUSION: We concluded that lower prevalence in hypovitaminosis D is certainly related to better adherence to daily supplements, and to better information and awareness of the physicians about hypovitaminosis D.

Decreasing population selection rates of resistance mutation K65R over time in HIV-1 patients receiving combination therapy including tenofovir.

OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.