Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Comparing methods to separate treatment from self-selection effects in an online banking setting

The literature discusses several methods to control for self-selection effects but provides little guidance on which method to use in a setting with a limited number of variables. The authors theoretically compare and empirically assess the performance of different matching methods and instrumental variable and control function methods in this type of setting by investigating the effect of online banking on product usage. Hybrid matching in combination with the Gaussian kernel algorithm outperforms the other methods with respect to predictive validity. The empirical finding of large self-selection effects indicates the importance of controlling for these effects when assessing the effectiveness of marketing activities.

Self-sustained clusters and ergodicity breaking in spin models

Self-sustained spin clusters are analytically linked to ergodicity breaking in fully connected Ising and Sherrington-Kirkpatick (SK) models, relating the less understood spin space to the well understood state space. This correspondence is established through the absence of clusters in the paramagnetic phase, the presence of one dominant cluster in the Ising ferromagnet, and the formation of nontrivial clusters in SK spin glass. Yet unobserved phenomena are also revealed such as a first order phase transition in cluster sizes in the SK ferromagnet. The method could be adapted to investigate other spin models. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Situation-specific cognitive behavioural self-therapy for erroneously suspected allergy or intolerance to a food:a short self-assessment tool

The recall of personal experiences relevant to a claim of food allergy or food intolerance is assessed by a psychologically validated tool for evidence that the suspected food could have caused the adverse symptom suffered. The tool looks at recall from memory of a particular episode or episodes when food was followed by symptoms resulting in self-diagnosis of food allergy or intolerance compared to merely theoretical knowledge that such symptoms could arise after eating the food. If there is detailed recall of events that point to the food as a potential cause of the symptom and the symptom is sufficiently serious, the tool user is recommended to seek testing at an allergy clinic or by the appropriate specialist for a non-allergic sensitivity. If what is recalled does not support the logical possibility of a causal connection between eating that food and occurrence of the symptom, then the user of the tool is pointed to other potential sources of the problem. The user is also recommended to investigate remedies other than avoidance of the food that had been blamed.

Assessing walking limitations in stroke survivors:are self-reports and proxy-reports interchangeable?

Objective: To examine the extent to which proxy-report measures adequately assess walking limitations and are interchangeable with self-report measures in stroke survivors. Design and Participants: Self-report, proxy-report, and observed performance measures of walking limitations were compared cross-sectionally on 3 occasions following the discharge from hospital of 101 stroke survivors. Correlations between measures, differences between mean scores, and agreement of self- and proxy reports were analyzed. Results and Conclusions: Self- and proxy-report measures correlated significantly with each other and with observed performance measures; differences between mean scores were not found. Agreement between individual self- and proxy-report pairs was poor, however, indicating that freely substituting proxy-report data for self-report data when self-report data are unavailable is inappropriate.

The handbook of engineering self-aware and self-expressive systems

When faced with the task of designing and implementing a new self-aware and self-expressive computing system, researchers and practitioners need a set of guidelines on how to use the concepts and foundations developed in the Engineering Proprioception in Computing Systems (EPiCS) project. This report provides such guidelines on how to design self-aware and self-expressive computing systems in a principled way. We have documented different categories of self-awareness and self-expression level using architectural patterns. We have also documented common architectural primitives, their possible candidate techniques and attributes for architecting self-aware and self-expressive systems. Drawing on the knowledge obtained from the previous investigations, we proposed a pattern driven methodology for engineering self-aware and self-expressive systems to assist in utilising the patterns and primitives during design. The methodology contains detailed guidance to make decisions with respect to the possible design alternatives, providing a systematic way to build self-aware and self-expressive systems. Then, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the methodology using two case studies. The results reveal that our pattern driven methodology covers the main aspects of engineering self-aware and self-expressive systems, and that the resulted systems perform significantly better than the non-self-aware systems.

Towards the in silico identification of class II restricted T-cell epitopes:a partial least squares iterative self-consistent algorithm for affinity prediction

Motivation: The immunogenicity of peptides depends on their ability to bind to MHC molecules. MHC binding affinity prediction methods can save significant amounts of experimental work. The class II MHC binding site is open at both ends, making epitope prediction difficult because of the multiple binding ability of long peptides. Results: An iterative self-consistent partial least squares (PLS)-based additive method was applied to a set of 66 pep- tides no longer than 16 amino acids, binding to DRB1*0401. A regression equation containing the quantitative contributions of the amino acids at each of the nine positions was generated. Its predictability was tested using two external test sets which gave r pred =0.593 and r pred=0.655, respectively. Furthermore, it was benchmarked using 25 known T-cell epitopes restricted by DRB1*0401 and we compared our results with four other online predictive methods. The additive method showed the best result finding 24 of the 25 T-cell epitopes. Availability: Peptides used in the study are available from http://www.jenner.ac.uk/JenPep. The PLS method is available commercially in the SYBYL molecular modelling software package. The final model for affinity prediction of peptides binding to DRB1*0401 molecule is available at http://www.jenner.ac.uk/MHCPred. Models developed for DRB1*0101 and DRB1*0701 also are available in MHC- Pred

Syndromes of self-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 29 societies

This study tested the multi-society generalizability of an eight-syndrome assessment model derived from factor analyses of American adults' self-ratings of 120 behavioral, emotional, and social problems. The Adult Self-Report (ASR; Achenbach and Rescorla 2003) was completed by 17,152 18-59-year-olds in 29 societies. Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of self-ratings in each sample to the eight-syndrome model. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all samples, while secondary indices showed acceptable to good fit. Only 5 (0.06%) of the 8,598 estimated parameters were outside the admissible parameter space. Confidence intervals indicated that sampling fluctuations could account for the deviant parameters. Results thus supported the tested model in societies differing widely in social, political, and economic systems, languages, ethnicities, religions, and geographical regions. Although other items, societies, and analytic methods might yield different results, the findings indicate that adults in very diverse societies were willing and able to rate themselves on the same standardized set of 120 problem items. Moreover, their self-ratings fit an eight-syndrome model previously derived from self-ratings by American adults. The support for the statistically derived syndrome model is consistent with previous findings for parent, teacher, and self-ratings of 11/2-18-year-olds in many societies. The ASR and its parallel collateral-report instrument, the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL), may offer mental health professionals practical tools for the multi-informant assessment of clinical constructs of adult psychopathology that appear to be meaningful across diverse societies. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

High accuracy discrimination of Parkinson's disease participants from healthy controls using smartphones

The aim of this study is to accurately distinguish Parkinson's disease (PD) participants from healthy controls using self-administered tests of gait and postural sway. Using consumer-grade smartphones with in-built accelerometers, we objectively measure and quantify key movement severity symptoms of Parkinson's disease. Specifically, we record tri-axial accelerations, and extract a range of different features based on the time and frequency-domain properties of the acceleration time series. The features quantify key characteristics of the acceleration time series, and enhance the underlying differences in the gait and postural sway accelerations between PD participants and controls. Using a random forest classifier, we demonstrate an average sensitivity of 98.5% and average specificity of 97.5% in discriminating PD participants from controls. © 2014 IEEE.

Self-affinity in financial asset returns

We test for departures from normal and independent and identically distributed (NIID) log returns, for log returns under the alternative hypothesis that are self-affine and either long-range dependent, or drawn randomly from an L-stable distribution with infinite higher-order moments. The finite sample performance of estimators of the two forms of self-affinity is explored in a simulation study. In contrast to rescaled range analysis and other conventional estimation methods, the variant of fluctuation analysis that considers finite sample moments only is able to identify both forms of self-affinity. When log returns are self-affine and long-range dependent under the alternative hypothesis, however, rescaled range analysis has higher power than fluctuation analysis. The techniques are illustrated by means of an analysis of the daily log returns for the indices of 11 stock markets of developed countries. Several of the smaller stock markets by capitalization exhibit evidence of long-range dependence in log returns. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Self-aware and self-expressive camera networks

Smart cameras perform on-board image analysis, adapt their algorithms to changes in their environment, and collaborate with other networked cameras to analyze the dynamic behavior of objects. A proposed computational framework adopts the concepts of self-awareness and self-expression to more efficiently manage the complex tradeoffs among performance, flexibility, resources, and reliability. The Web extra at http://youtu.be/NKe31-OKLz4 is a video demonstrating CamSim, a smart camera simulation tool, enables users to test self-adaptive and self-organizing smart-camera techniques without deploying a smart-camera network.

High-accuracy discrimination of Parkinson’s Disease participants from healthy controls using smartphones

Objective: To test the practicality and effectiveness of cheap, ubiquitous, consumer-grade smartphones to discriminate Parkinson’s disease (PD) subjects from healthy controls, using self-administered tests of gait and postural sway. Background: Existing tests for the diagnosis of PD are based on subjective neurological examinations, performed in-clinic. Objective movement symptom severity data, collected using widely-accessible technologies such as smartphones, would enable the remote characterization of PD symptoms based on self-administered, behavioral tests. Smartphones, when backed up by interviews using web-based videoconferencing, could make it feasible for expert neurologists to perform diagnostic testing on large numbers of individuals at low cost. However, to date, the compliance rate of testing using smart-phones has not been assessed. Methods: We conducted a one-month controlled study with twenty participants, comprising 10 PD subjects and 10 controls. All participants were provided identical LG Optimus S smartphones, capable of recording tri-axial acceleration. Using these smartphones, patients conducted self-administered, short (less than 5 minute) controlled gait and postural sway tests. We analyzed a wide range of summary measures of gait and postural sway from the accelerometry data. Using statistical machine learning techniques, we identified discriminating patterns in the summary measures in order to distinguish PD subjects from controls. Results: Compliance was high all 20 participants performed an average of 3.1 tests per day for the duration of the study. Using this test data, we demonstrated cross-validated sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 98% in discriminating PD subjects from healthy controls. Conclusions: Using consumer-grade smartphone accelerometers, it is possible to distinguish PD from healthy controls with high accuracy. Since these smartphones are inexpensive (around $30 each) and easily available, and the tests are highly non-invasive and objective, we envisage that this kind of smartphone-based testing could radically increase the reach and effectiveness of experts in diagnosing PD.

Does self-affirmation promote physical activity regardless of threat level?

Background: Self-affirmation (i.e., focusing on a valued aspect of the self-concept) can promote health behaviour change. This study aimed to see if self-affirmation increased physical activity (PA) regardless of threat level presented in health messages. Methods: Sixty-eight participants were randomly allocated to condition in a 2 (self-affirmation, no affirmation) x 2 (high threat, low threat) between-participants design. Participants completed the Godin Leisure-Time Exercise Questionnaire at baseline and one week later to assess PA. Findings: A two-way ANCOVA with affirmation condition and threat level as predictor variables, controlling for baseline PA, was performed on follow up PA. Baseline PA was a significant predictor (F(1,63) = 399.63, p<0.001) and the main effect of affirmation condition approached significance (F(1,63) = 3.55, p=0.06). There were no other significant effects. Discussion: This study provides further evidence that self-affirmation can increase PA, but found no interaction between self-affirmation and threat level presented in health messages.

Self-organization in social tagging systems

Individuals often imitate each other to fall into the typical group, leading to a self-organized state of typical behaviors in a community. In this paper, we model self-organization in social tagging systems and illustrate the underlying interaction and dynamics. Specifically, we introduce a model in which individuals adjust their own tagging tendency to imitate the average tagging tendency. We found that when users are of low confidence, they tend to imitate others and lead to a self-organized state with active tagging. On the other hand, when users are of high confidence and are stubborn to change, tagging becomes inactive. We observe a phase transition at a critical level of user confidence when the system changes from one regime to the other. The distributions of post length obtained from the model are compared to real data, which show good agreement. © 2011 American Physical Society.

Parental self-efficacy in managing food allergy and mental health predicts food allergy related quality of life

BACKGROUND: Food allergy has been shown to have a significant impact on quality of life (QoL) and can be difficult to manage in order to avoid potentially life threatening reactions. Parental self-efficacy (confidence) in managing food allergy for their child might explain variations in QoL. This study aimed to examine whether self-efficacy in parents of food allergic children was a good predictor of QoL of the family. METHODS: Parents of children with clinically diagnosed food allergy completed the Food Allergy Self-Efficacy Scale for Parents (FASE-P), the Food Allergy Quality of Life Parental Burden Scale (FAQL-PB), the GHQ-12 (to measure mental health) and the Food Allergy Independent Measure (FAIM), which measures perceived likelihood of a severe allergic reaction. RESULTS: A total of 434 parents took part. Greater parental QoL was significantly related to greater self-efficacy for food allergy management, better mental health, lower perceived likelihood of a severe reaction, older age in parent and child and fewer number of allergies (all p<0.05). Food allergy self-efficacy explained more of the variance in QoL than any other variable and self-efficacy related to management of social activities and precaution and prevention of an allergic reaction appeared to be the most important aspects. CONCLUSIONS: Parental self-efficacy in management of a child's food allergy is important and is associated with better parental QoL. It would be useful to measure self-efficacy at visits to allergy clinic in order to focus support; interventions to improve self-efficacy in parents of food allergic children should be explored. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.