An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Screening for occupational asthma by using a self-administered questionnaire in a clinical setting

OBJECTIVE: Because of its high prevalence, early screening for occupational asthma (OA) is crucial. We aimed to evaluate the screening performance of the Occupational Asthma Screening Questionnaire-11 items (OASQ-11) in a clinical setting. METHODS: Between January 2009 and December 2011, 169 workers referred for potential OA to our hospital completed the OASQ-11 and underwent workups to determine the final diagnosis. The discriminative abilities of the OASQ-11 as a whole and in relation to demographic and exposure parameters were determined by the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Model 1, consisting of the OASQ's items, showed fair discrimination (AUC, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.80). Addition of age and exposure duration to model 1 improved discrimination (AUC, 0.80; confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.88). CONCLUSION: A simple model consisting of the OASQ-11's items, age, and exposure duration could well discriminate subjects with OA in a clinical setting.

How to improve flow during cardiopulmonary bypass in an acardia experimental model.

OBJECTIVES In extreme scenarios, such as hyperacute rejection of heart transplant, an urgent heart explantation might be necessary. The aim of this experimental study was to determine the feasibility and to improve the haemodynamics of a venoarterial cardiopulmonary bypass after cardiectomy. METHODS A venoarterial cardiopulmonary bypass was established in seven calves (56.4 ± 7 kg) by the transjugular insertion to the caval axis of a self-expanding cannula, with a carotid artery return. After baseline measurements (A), ventricular fibrillation was induced (B), great arteries were clamped (C), the heart was excised and the right and left atria remnants, containing the pulmonary veins, were sutured together leaving an atrial septal defect over the cannula in the caval axis (D). Measurements were taken with the pulmonary artery clamped and declamped. RESULTS Initial pump flow was 4.16 ± 0.75 l/min dropping to 2.9 ± 0.63 l/min (P(AB )< 0.001) 10 min after induction of ventricular fibrillation. After cardiectomy with the pulmonary artery clamped, the pump flow increased non-significantly to 3.20 ± 0.78 l/min. After declamping, the flow significantly increased close to baseline levels (3.61 ± 0.73 l/min, P(DB )= 0.009, P(DC )= 0.017), supporting the notion that full cardiopulmonary bypass in acardia is feasible only if adequate drainage of pulmonary circulation is assured to avoid pulmonary congestion and loss of volume from the left-to-right shunt of bronchial vessels.

Decreased behavioral impairments in an Alzheimer mice model by interfering with TNF-alpha metabolism.

The performance of mice expressing PDAPP (+/+ or +/-) was studied in the Morris place navigation task. Different lines of questions were investigated using PDAPP+/- mice in which the activity of the cytokine Tumor Necrosing Factor alpha (TNFalpha) was attenuated by chronic treatment with anti-TNF or deleting TNFalpha (TNF-/-). Two different categories of behavior were analyzed in adult (6 months) and middle aged (15 months) subjects. Classically, the cognitive performance was assessed from the escape efficacy and quantitative bias toward the training position in a Morris water maze. Second, stereotyped circling was quantified, along with more qualitative behavioral impairments such as self-mutilation or increased reactivity. Our results can be summarized as follows. (1) All of the PDAPP mice expressed reduced cognitive performance in the Morris task, but only those with a clear-cut amyloid burden in the hippocampus showed behavioral abnormalities such as stereotyped circling. (2) Chronic treatment with anti-TNF prevented the development of pathological circling in the 6-month-old mice but not in the 15-month-old mice and had no significant effect on amyloid burden. (3) The absence of TNFalpha prevented the development of stereotyped circling in 6- and 15-month-old mice but increased amyloid burden after 15 months. These data indicate that PDAPP mice express cognitive impairments disregarding absence of TNF. The pathological behavioral anomalies related to the PDAPP mutation seem reduced by treatments interfering with TNFalpha.

Evaluating fear of falling among community-dwelling older people: A qualitative pattern model based on the experience of falls

This research was conducted in the context of the project IRIS 8A Health and Society (2002-2008) and financially supported by the University of Lausanne. It was aomed at developping a model based on the elder people's experience and allowed us to develop a "Portrait evaluation" of fear of falling using their examples and words. It is a very simple evaluation, which can be used by professionals, but by the elder people themselves. The "Portrait evaluation" and the user's guide are on free access, but we would very much approciate to know whether other people or scientists have used it and collect their comments. (contact: Chantal.Piot-Ziegler@unil.ch)The purpose of this study is to create a model grounded in the elderly people's experience allowing the development of an original instrument to evaluate FOF.In a previous study, 58 semi-structured interviews were conducted with community-dwelling elderly people. The qualitative thematic analysis showed that fear of falling was defined through the functional, social and psychological long-term consequences of falls (Piot-Ziegler et al., 2007).In order to reveal patterns in the expression of fear of falling, an original qualitative thematic pattern analysis (QUAlitative Pattern Analysis - QUAPA) is developed and applied on these interviews.The results of this analysis show an internal coherence across the three dimensions (functional, social and psychological). Four different patterns are found, corresponding to four degrees of fear of falling. They are formalized in a fear of falling intensity model.This model leads to a portrait-evaluation for fallers and non-fallers. The evaluation must be confronted to large samples of elderly people, living in different environments. It presents an original alternative to the concept of self-efficacy to evaluate fear of falling in older people.The model of FOF presented in this article is grounded on elderly people's experience. It gives an experiential description of the three dimensions constitutive of FOF and of their evolution as fear increases, and defines an evaluation tool using situations and wordings based on the elderly people's discourse.

Self-potentials in partially saturated media: the importance of explicit modeling of electrode effects

Self-potential (SP) data are of interest to vadose zone hydrology because of their direct sensitivity to water flow and ionic transport. There is unfortunately little consensus in the literature about how to best model SP data under partially saturated conditions, and different approaches (often supported by one laboratory data set alone) have been proposed. We argue that this lack of agreement can largely be traced to electrode effects that have not been properly taken into account. A series of drainage and imbibition experiments were considered in which we found that previously proposed approaches to remove electrode effects were unlikely to provide adequate corrections. Instead, we explicitly modeled the electrode effects together with classical SP contributions using a flow and transport model. The simulated data agreed overall with the observed SP signals and allowed decomposing the different signal contributions to analyze them separately. After reviewing other published experimental data, we suggest that most of them include electrode effects that have not been properly taken into account. Our results suggest that previously presented SP theory works well when considering the modeling uncertainties presently associated with electrode effects. Additional work is warranted to not only develop suitable electrodes for laboratory experiments but also to assure that associated electrode effects that appear inevitable in longer term experiments are predictable, so that they can be incorporated into the modeling framework.

Self-organization mechanisms for the formation on nearshore crescentic and transverse sand bars

The formation and development of transverse and crescentic sand bars in the coastal marine environment has been investigated by means of a nonlinear numerical model based on the shallow-water equations and on a simpli ed sediment transport parameterization. By assuming normally approaching waves and a saturated surf zone, rhythmic patterns develop from a planar slope where random perturbations of small amplitude have been superimposed. Two types of bedforms appear: one is a crescentic bar pattern centred around the breakpoint and the other, herein modelled for the rst time, is a transverse bar pattern. The feedback mechanism related to the formation and development of the patterns can be explained by coupling the water and sediment conservation equations. Basically, the waves stir up the sediment and keep it in suspension with a certain cross-shore distribution of depth-averaged concentration. Then, a current flowing with (against) the gradient of sediment concentration produces erosion (deposition). It is shown that inside the surf zone, these currents may occur due to the wave refraction and to the redistribution of wave breaking produced by the growing bedforms. Numerical simulations have been performed in order to understand the sensitivity of the pattern formation to the parameterization and to relate the hydro-morphodynamic input conditions to which of the patterns develops. It is suggested that crescentic bar growth would be favoured by high-energy conditions and ne sediment while transverse bars would grow for milder waves and coarser sediment. In intermediate conditions mixed patterns may occur.

Development of Self-Cleaning Box Culvert Designs, TR-545, 2009

The main function of a roadway culvert is to effectively convey drainage flow during normal and extreme hydrologic conditions. This function is often impaired due to the sedimentation blockage of the culvert. This research sought to understand the mechanics of sedimentation process at multi-box culverts, and develop self-cleaning systems that flush out sediment deposits using the power of drainage flows. The research entailed field observations, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations. The specific role of each of these investigative tools is summarized below: a) The field observations were aimed at understanding typical sedimentation patterns and their dependence on culvert geometry and hydrodynamic conditions during normal and extreme hydrologic events. b) The laboratory experiments were used for modeling sedimentation process observed insitu and for testing alternative self-cleaning concepts applied to culverts. The major tasks for the initial laboratory model study were to accurately replicate the culvert performance curves and the dynamics of sedimentation process, and to provide benchmark data for numerical simulation validation. c) The numerical simulations enhanced the understanding of the sedimentation processes and aided in testing flow cases complementary to those conducted in the model reducing the number of (more expensive) tests to be conducted in the laboratory. Using the findings acquired from the laboratory and simulation works, self-cleaning culvert concepts were developed and tested for a range of flow conditions. The screening of the alternative concepts was made through experimental studies in a 1:20 scale model guided by numerical simulations. To ensure the designs are effective, performance studies were finally conducted in a 1:20 hydraulic model using the most promising design alternatives to make sure that the proposed systems operate satisfactory under closer to natural scale conditions.

Viral self-assembly as a thermodynamic process

The protein shells, or capsids, of nearly all spherelike viruses adopt icosahedral symmetry. In the present Letter, we propose a statistical thermodynamic model for viral self-assembly. We find that icosahedral symmetry is not expected for viral capsids constructed from structurally identical protein subunits and that this symmetry requires (at least) two internal switching configurations of the protein. Our results indicate that icosahedral symmetry is not a generic consequence of free energy minimization but requires optimization of internal structural parameters of the capsid proteins

Self-reported adherence and associated factors regarding antihypertensive medication in Seychelles

Introduction. Adherence to medication for asymptomatic disease is often low. We assessed factors associated with good adherence to medication for high blood pressure (HBP) in a country of the African region. Methods. A population-based survey of adults aged 25-64 years (N=1240 and participation rate=73%). Information was available in knowledge attitude and practice, SES and other variables. One question assessed adherence. Good adherence to treatment was defined as answering "I forget very rarely" vs "I forget on 1-2 days in a week" or "I forget on 3 or more days in a week". Results. In a univariate model adherence was strongly associated with belief that hypertension is a long-term disease (OR 2.6, p<0.001) and was negatively associated with concomitant use of traditional medicine (OR 0.36, p<0.005). The following variables tended to be associated with good adherence for HBP treatment: age, SES, BMI, belief that HBP is not symptomatic, going to government's clinics, medium stress level, controlled hypertension, taking statins. The following variables were not associated with good adherence for HBP treatment: education, higher BP, knowing people who had a stroke/MI, suffering from another chronic condition. In a multivariate model, pseudo R2 was 0.14. Conclusion. We built a multidimensional model including a wide range of variable. This model only predicted 14% of adherence variability. Variables associated with good adherence were demographics or related to knowledge attitude and practice. The latter one is modifiable by different type of interventions.

Extended access cocaine self-administration differentially activates dorsal raphe and amygdala corticotropin-releasing factor systems in rats.

Cocaine-induced neuroadaptation of stress-related circuitry and increased access to cocaine each putatively contribute to the transition from cocaine use to cocaine dependence. The present study tested the hypothesis that rats receiving extended versus brief daily access to cocaine would exhibit regional differences in levels of the stress-regulatory neuropeptide corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF). A secondary goal was to explore how CRF levels change in relation to the time since cocaine self-administration. Male Wistar rats acquired operant self-administration of cocaine and were assigned to receive daily long access (6 hours/day, LgA, n = 20) or short access (1 hour/day, ShA, n = 18) to intravenous cocaine self-administration (fixed ratio 1, ∼0.50 mg/kg/infusion). After at least 3 weeks, tissue CRF immunoreactivity was measured at one of three timepoints: pre-session, post-session or 3 hours post-session. LgA, but not ShA, rats showed increased total session and first-hour cocaine intake. CRF immunoreactivity increased within the dorsal raphe (DR) and basolateral, but not central, nucleus of the amygdala (BLA, CeA) of ShA rats from pre-session to 3 hours post-session. In LgA rats, CRF immunoreactivity increased from pre-session to 3 hours post-session within the CeA and DR but tended to decrease in the BLA. LgA rats showed higher CRF levels than ShA rats in the DR and, pre-session, in the BLA. Thus, voluntary cocaine intake engages stress-regulatory CRF systems of the DR and amygdala. Increased availability of cocaine promotes greater tissue CRF levels in these extrahypothalamic brain regions, changes associated here with a model of cocaine dependence.

Prediction of soil orders with high spatial resolution: response of different classifiers to sampling density

The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.