A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Enhancing MPLS QoS routing algorithms by using the network protection degree paradigm

IP based networks still do not have the required degree of reliability required by new multimedia services, achieving such reliability will be crucial in the success or failure of the new Internet generation. Most of existing schemes for QoS routing do not take into consideration parameters concerning the quality of the protection, such as packet loss or restoration time. In this paper, we define a new paradigm to develop new protection strategies for building reliable MPLS networks, based on what we have called the network protection degree (NPD). This NPD consists of an a priori evaluation, the failure sensibility degree (FSD), which provides the failure probability and an a posteriori evaluation, the failure impact degree (FID), to determine the impact on the network in case of failure. Having mathematical formulated these components, we point out the most relevant components. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of the utilization of the NPD, when used to enhance some current QoS routing algorithms to offer a certain degree of protection

Thirteen years of surgical site infection surveillance in Swiss hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance is an essential element of surgical site infection (SSI) prevention. Few studies have evaluated the long-term effect of these programmes. AIM: To present data from a 13-year multicentre SSI surveillance programme from western and southern Switzerland. METHODS: Surveillance with post-discharge follow-up was performed according to the US National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) system methods. SSI rates were calculated for each surveyed type of surgery, overall and by year of participation in the programme. Risk factors for SSI and the effect of surveillance time on SSI rates were analysed by multiple logistic regression. FINDINGS: Overall SSI rates were 18.2% after 7411 colectomies, 6.4% after 6383 appendicectomies, 2.3% after 7411 cholecystectomies, 1.7% after 9933 herniorrhaphies, 1.6% after 6341 hip arthroplasties, and 1.3% after 3667 knee arthroplasties. The frequency of SSI detected after discharge varied between 21% for colectomy and 94% for knee arthroplasty. Independent risk factors for SSI differed between operations. The NNIS risk index was predictive of SSI in gastrointestinal surgery only. Laparoscopic technique was protective overall, but associated with higher rates of organ-space infections after appendicectomy. The duration of participation in the surveillance programme was not associated with a decreased SSI rate for any of the included procedure. CONCLUSION: These data confirm the effect of post-discharge surveillance on SSI rates and the protective effect of laparoscopy. There is a need to establish alternative case-mix adjustment methods. In contrast to other European programmes, no positive impact of surveillance duration on SSI rates was observed.

Automatic self-configuration of the logical network using distributed software agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation. The proposed system is completely distributed and automates the mechanisms for adapting the logical network to the offered load. The system is able to manage dynamically a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switched path network in MPLS or GMPLS. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS) which make the decisions of when and how to change a logical path. Despite the lack of a centralised global network view, results show that MAS manages the network resources effectively, reducing the connection blocking probability and, therefore, achieving better utilisation of network resources. We also include details of its architecture and implementation

An ATM distributed simulator for network management research

Due to the high cost of a large ATM network working up to full strength to apply our ideas about network management, i.e., dynamic virtual path (VP) management and fault restoration, we developed a distributed simulation platform for performing our experiments. This platform also had to be capable of other sorts of tests, such as connection admission control (CAC) algorithms, routing algorithms, and accounting and charging methods. The platform was posed as a very simple, event-oriented and scalable simulation. The main goal was the simulation of a working ATM backbone network with a potentially large number of nodes (hundreds). As research into control algorithms and low-level, or rather cell-level methods, was beyond the scope of this study, the simulation took place at a connection level, i.e., there was no real traffic of cells. The simulated network behaved like a real network accepting and rejecting SNMP ones, or experimental tools using the API node

Availability analysis of GMPLS connections based on physical network topology

This paper presents a study of connection availability in GMPLS over optical transport networks (OTN) taking into account different network topologies. Two basic path protection schemes are considered and compared with the no protection case. The selected topologies are heterogeneous in geographic coverage, network diameter, link lengths, and average node degree. Connection availability is also computed considering the reliability data of physical components and a well-known network availability model. Results show several correspondences between suitable path protection algorithms and several network topology characteristics

Dynamic bandwidth management as part of an integrated network management system based on distributed agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation and path restoration mechanisms. Our focus is on the dynamic bandwidth management results, although the main goal of the system is the integration of the different mechanisms that manage the reserved paths (bandwidth, restoration, and spare capacity planning). The objective is to avoid conflicts between these mechanisms. The system is able to dynamically manage a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switch path network in MPLS. This system has been designed to be modular in the sense that in can be activated or deactivated, and it can be applied only in a sub-network. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS). We also included details of its architecture and implementation

Parental influences on pathogen resistance in brown trout embryos and effects of outcrossing within a river network.

Phenotypic plasticity can increase tolerance to heterogeneous environments but the elevations and slopes of reaction norms are often population specific. Disruption of locally adapted reaction norms through outcrossing can lower individual viability. Here, we sampled five genetically distinct populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) from within a river network, crossed them in a full-factorial design, and challenged the embryos with the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas fluorescens. By virtue of our design, we were able to disentangle effects of genetic crossing distance from sire and dam effects on early life-history traits. While pathogen infection did not increase mortality, it was associated with delayed hatching of smaller larvae with reduced yolk sac reserves. We found no evidence of a relationship between genetic distance (W, FST) and the expression of early-life history traits. Moreover, hybrids did not differ in phenotypic means or reaction norms in comparison to offspring from within-population crosses. Heritable variation in early life-history traits was found to remain stable across the control and pathogen environments. Our findings show that outcrossing within a rather narrow geographical scale can have neutral effects on F1 hybrid viability at the embryonic stage, i.e. at a stage when environmental and genetic effects on phenotypes are usually large.

Disseny i implementació d’una “Storage Area Network”

El següent projecte consisteix en analitzar com funciona un sistema SAN, per tal de veure comes pot obtenir un millor rendiment. L’objectiu principal es saber com es comportarà la nostra SAN muntada amb iSCSI a través de la xarxa, volem veure quines són les operacions, les dades i els resultats que comporta crear una RAID a través de discos no locals d’un ordinador i a través d’una xarxa LAN

Utilité et limites du dosage de l'antigène carcinoembryonnaire (CEA) dans la surveillance postopératoire de malades atteints de carcinomes du côlon et du rectu

An attempt is made to define the usefulness and limitations of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) radioimmunoassay for evaluation of tumor resection and detection of tumor relapse in patients with large-bowel carcinoma. In 45 patients for whom complete tumor resection was reported, all but 5 showed a drop in CEA to normal values after surgery. The 5 patients whose CEA did not fall to below 5 ng/ml showed a subsequent rise in CEA level and later were all found to have a tumor relapse. The results indicate that an incomplete drop in circulating CEA level one month after surgery is a bad prognostic sign. Twenty-two of these patients were followed up by repeated CEA radioimmunoassay for several months after surgery; 8 showed a progressive increase in CEA levels preceding clinical diagnosis of tumor relapse by 2-10 months. The clinical history of these 8 patients is briefly described. The results demonstrate that relapses of colon and rectum carcinoma can be detected by increased CEA levels months before the appearance of any clinical evidence.

A miR-34a-SIRT6 axis in the squamous cell differentiation network.

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) are highly heterogeneous tumours, resulting from deranged expression of genes involved in squamous cell differentiation. Here we report that microRNA-34a (miR-34a) functions as a novel node in the squamous cell differentiation network, with SIRT6 as a critical target. miR-34a expression increases with keratinocyte differentiation, while it is suppressed in skin and oral SCCs, SCC cell lines, and aberrantly differentiating primary human keratinocytes (HKCs). Expression of this miRNA is restored in SCC cells, in parallel with differentiation, by reversion of genomic DNA methylation or wild-type p53 expression. In normal HKCs, the pro-differentiation effects of increased p53 activity or UVB exposure are miR-34a-dependent, and increased miR-34a levels are sufficient to induce differentiation of these cells both in vitro and in vivo. SIRT6, a sirtuin family member not previously connected with miR-34a function, is a direct target of this miRNA in HKCs, and SIRT6 down-modulation is sufficient to reproduce the miR-34a pro-differentiation effects. The findings are of likely biological significance, as SIRT6 is oppositely expressed to miR-34a in normal keratinocytes and keratinocyte-derived tumours.

Dengue virus type 4 in Niterói, Rio de Janeiro: the role of molecular techniques in laboratory diagnosis and entomological surveillance

In Niterói, state of Rio de Janeiro, dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was isolated for the first time in March 2011. We analysed the laboratory findings of the first cases and evaluated the use of molecular techniques for the detection of DENV-4 in Aedes aegypti that were field-caught. Conventional reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and SimplexaTM Dengue real-time RT-PCR confirmed DENV-4 infection in all cases. Additionally, DENV-4 was confirmed in a female Ae. aegypti with 1.08 x 10³ copies/mL of virus, as determined by quantitative real-time RT-PCR. This is the first time the SimplexaTM Dengue real-time assay has been used for the classification of cases of infection and for entomological investigations. The use of these molecular techniques was shown to be important for the surveillance of dengue in humans and vectors.

Leprosy exposure, infection and disease: a 25-year surveillance study of leprosy patient contacts

Contact surveillance is a valuable strategy for controlling leprosy. A dynamic cohort study of leprosy contacts was initiated in 1987 at Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. The objective of this work was to review the data on the major risk factors leading up to the infectious stage of the disease, estimate incidence rates of leprosy in the cohort and characterise the risk factors for the disease among the contacts under surveillance. The incidence rate of leprosy among contacts of leprosy patients was estimated at 0.01694 cases per person-year in the first five years of follow-up. The following factors were associated with acquiring the disease: (i) not receiving the BCG vaccine, (ii) a negative Mitsuda reaction and (iii) contact with a patient with a multibacillary clinical form of leprosy. The contacts of index patients who had high bacilloscopic index scores > 1 were at especially high risk of infection. The following factors were associated with infection, which was defined as a seropositive reaction for anti-phenolic glicolipid-1 IgM: (i) young age (< 20 years), (ii) a low measured Mitsuda reaction (< 5 mm) and (iii) contact with an index patient who had a high bacilloscopic index. BCG vaccination and re-vaccination were shown to be protective among household contacts. The main conclusions of this study indicate an urgent need for additional leprosy control strategies in areas with a high incidence of the disease.