Tephrochronology of marine sediments around the Island of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles volcanic arc

The recent history of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, Lesser Antilles volcanic arc, is reconstructed using data obtained from recently drilled submarine cores.Tephra layers in these cores preserve a record of the volcanic history of Montserrat back to ~250 ka on the basis of micropaleontology and stable isotope stratigraphy. Stratigraphic relationships identified in the cores collected in 2002 and 2005 document the fate of both pyroclastic flows entering the ocean to the east of Montserrat and carbonate-rich turbidites sourced from the carbonate platformssurrounding the islands of the Lesser Antilles. Using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, micropalaeontological analysis and Carbon-14 dating, it can be shown that three significant volcanic events, including the on-going eruption, have occurred over the last 12 ka. Preceding this was a time of volcanic quiescence, with three carbonate-rich turbidite events being documented in many of the cores. Our data suggest that these events occurred during Marine Isotope Stage 2, following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and onset of post-glacial sea level rise.

Turbulence and suspended sediment measurements in an urban environment during the Brisbane River flood of January 2011

In urbanised areas, the flood flows constitute a hazard to populations and infrastructure as illustrated during major floods in 2011. During the 2011 Brisbane River flood, some turbulent velocity data were collected using acoustic Doppler velocimetry in an inundated street. The field deployment showed some unusual features of flood flow in the urban environment. That is, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with distinctive periods between 50 and 100 s linked with some local topographic effects. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition. The velocity fluctuations included a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range, while the turbulent motion components were much smaller. The suspended sediment data showed some significant longitudinal flux. Altogether the results highlighted that the triple decomposition approach originally developed for period flows is well suited to complicated flows in an inundated urban environment.

Application of a digital elevation model for flood modeling for the Pagsangaan River in Leyte

Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation. The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1B climate change assumptions for the area. The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the horizontal spatial resolution of 30 m is rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting DEM was used for flood modelling. The above mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps. According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously available flood maps. The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore these maps can serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.

Distribution of organic-rich sediments through the Phanerozoic

It is commonly assumed that rates of accumulation of organic-rich strata have varied through geologic time with some periods that were particularly favorable for accumulation of petroleum source rocks or coals. A rigorous analysis of the validity of such an assumption requires consideration of the basic fact that although sedimentary rocks have been lost through geologic time to erosion and metamorphism. Consequently, their present-day global abundance decreases with their geologic age. Measurements of the global abundance of coal-bearing strata suggest that conditions for coal accumulation were exceptionally favorable during the late Carboniferous. Strata of this age constitute 21% of the world's coal-bearing strata. Global rates of coal accumulation appear to have been relatively constant since the end of the Carboniferous, with the exception of the Triassic which contains only 1.75% of the world's coal-bearing strata. Estimation of the global amount of discovered oil by age of the source rock show that 58% of the world's oil has been sourced from Cretaceous or younger strata and 99% from Silurian or younger strata. Although most geologic periods were favourable for oil source-rock accumulation the mid-Permian to mid-Jurassic appears to have been particularly unfavourable accounting for less than 2% of the world's oil. Estimation of the global amount of discovered natural gas by age of the source rock show that 48% of the world's oil has been sourced from Cretaceous or younger strata and 99% from Silurian or younger strata. The Silurian and Late Carboniferous were particularly favourable for gas source-rock accumulation respectively accounting for 12.9% and 6.9% of the world's gas. By contrast, Permian and Triassic source rocks account for only 1.7% of the world's natural gas. Rather than invoking global climatic or oceanic events to explain the relative abundance of organic rich sediments through time, examination of the data suggests the more critical control is tectonic. The majority of coals are associated with foreland basins and the majority of oil-prone source rocks are associated with rifting. The relative abundance of these types of basin through time determines the abundance and location of coals and petroleum source rocks.

A case study of interactions between flood flow and buildings in an urban environment : Gardens Point during the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River (Australia)

Flood flows in inundated urban environment constitute a natural hazard. During the 12- 13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, detailed water elevation, velocity and suspended sediment data were recorded in an inundated street at the peak of the flood. The field observations highlighted a number of unusual flow interactions with the urban surroundings. These included some slow fluctuations in water elevations and velocity with distinctive periods between 50 and 100 s caused by some local topographic effect (choking), superposed with some fast turbulent fluctuations. The suspended sediment data highlighted some significant suspended sediment loads in the inundated zone.

Ross River virus evolution : implications for vaccine development

Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes approximately 5000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia each year and has direct medical-associated costs of approximately US$15 million annually. While mosquito control programs are able, at best, to contain rather than prevent this disease, natural infection with Ross River virus confers lifelong protection against subsequent clinical infection. A killed-virus vaccine has been developed, which is in Phase III clinical trials. Analyses of intra-host genetic diversity and of long-term evolutionary changes in Ross River virus populations suggest that antigenic variation is unlikely to pose a threat to the efficacy of this vaccine.

“Would you; could you; on a boat?” Wait-time and travel-time activities during river ferry journeys and their relationship to overall satisfaction in Brisbane Queensland

This study investigates travel behaviour and wait-time activities as a component of passenger satisfaction with public transport in Brisbane, Australia. Australian transport planners recognise a variety of benefits to encouraging a mode shift away from automobile travel in favour of active and public transport use. Efforts to increase public transport ridership have included introducing state of the art passenger information systems, improving physical station access, and integrating system pricing, routes and scheduling for train, bus and ferry. Previous research regarding satisfaction with public transport emphasizes technical dimensions of service quality, including the timing and reliability of service. Those factors might be especially significant for frequent (commuting) travellers who look to balance the cost and efficiency of their travel options. In contrast, infrequent (leisure) passengers may be more concerned with way finding and the sensory experience of the journey. Perhaps due to the small relative proportion of trips made by river ferry compared to bus and rail, this mode of public transport has not received as much attention in travel-behaviour research. This case study of Brisbane’s river ferry system examines ferry passengers at selected terminals during peak and off-peak travel times to find out how travel behaviours and activities correlate to satisfaction with ferry travel. Data include 416 questionnaires completed by passengers intercepted during wait times at seven CityCat terminals in Brisbane. Descriptive statistical analysis revealed associations between specific wait time activities and satisfaction levels that could inform planners seeking to increase ridership and quality of life through ferry-oriented development.

Ross River virus arthritis

“Epidemics” of a benign disease causing polyarthralgia and rash were first described in Australia in 1927.63 Following the recovery of the causative agent and the advent of serologic tests able to diagnose Ross River virus infection, epidemic polyarthritis has been recognized as endemic in Australia and has occurred as epidemics in numerous Pacific nations. Approximately 4000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis are reported in Australia each year, with a peak of 7800 cases in 1996. Some confusion has been generated recently by use of the term Ross River fever to describe clinical Ross River virus infections because fever does not develop in more than half of those with clinical disease.59 Additional confusion has been generated by efforts to describe any polyarthritis caused by an Australian arbovirus as epidemic polyarthritis. The term epidemic polyarthritis should be used to describe only clinical disease caused by Ross River virus.

Findings report on the endemic fluorosis in the lower reaches of Xiaoqing river [小清河下游地区地方性氟中毒调查报告]

Objective: To find out the present prevalent situation of the endemic fluorosis in the lower reaches of Xiao Qing River , and to look for an effective way to altering sources to lower fluoride level. Methods: To determine the water fluoride content in the drinking water sources and investigate the basic condition of the water sources (type of the water sources, the depth of well, etc) in the three towns of this area . Make a sampling survey of the children aged from 8 to 12 about the dent al fluoro sis and determine the urine fluoride, and the skeletal fluorosis among the crowd over 16 y ears of age. Results: The survey shows that the lower reaches of Xiaoqing river belong to the drinking water type of endemic fluorosis caused by drinking deep well water. In this area, 65.71% of the water sources contain high level of fluoride, 57.51% of the children suffer from dental fluorosis, 0.58% of the crowd over 16 years of age suffer from skeletal fluorosis. High water fluoride rate is related with the depth of the well. If the well is over 500 metres deep, the fluoride content rate is clearly low. Conclusions: In this area, there are still some water sources which contain normal level of fluoride. By increasing the depth of the well down to 500 metres, the problem of high fluoride in water might be solved.

Thorough assessment of DNA preservation from fossil bone and sediments excavated from a late Pleistocene–Holocene cave deposit on Kangaroo Island, South Australia

Fossils and sediments preserved in caves are an excellent source of information for investigating impacts of past environmental changes on biodiversity. Until recently studies have relied on morphology-based palaeontological approaches, but recent advances in molecular analytical methods offer excellent potential for extracting a greater array of biological information from these sites. This study presents a thorough assessment of DNA preservation from late Pleistocene–Holocene vertebrate fossils and sediments from Kelly Hill Cave Kangaroo Island, South Australia. Using a combination of extraction techniques and sequencing technologies, ancient DNA was characterised from over 70 bones and 20 sediment samples from 15 stratigraphic layers ranging in age from >20 ka to ∼6.8 ka. A combination of primers targeting marsupial and placental mammals, reptiles and two universal plant primers were used to reveal genetic biodiversity for comparison with the mainland and with the morphological fossil record for Kelly Hill Cave. We demonstrate that Kelly Hill Cave has excellent long-term DNA preservation, back to at least 20 ka. This contrasts with the majority of Australian cave sites thus far explored for ancient DNA preservation, and highlights the great promise Kangaroo Island caves hold for yielding the hitherto-elusive DNA of extinct Australian Pleistocene species.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Enrichment, distribution and sources of heavy metals in the sediments of Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia

Sediment samples from 13 sampling sites in Deception Bay, Australia were analysed for the presence of heavy metals. Enrichment factors, modified contamination indices and Nemerow pollution indices were calculated for each sampling site to determine sediment quality. The results indicate significant pollution of most sites by lead (average enrichment factor (EF) of 13), but there is also enrichment of arsenic (average EF 2.3), zinc (average EF 2.7) and other heavy metals. The modified degree of contamination indices (average 1.0) suggests that there is little contamination. By contrast, the Nemerow pollution index (average 5.8) suggests that Deception Bay is heavily contaminated. Cluster analysis was undertaken to identify groups of elements. Strong correlation between some elements and two distinct clusters of sampling sites based on sediment type was evident. These results have implications for pollution in complex marine environments where there is significant influx of sand and sediment into an estuarine environment.

An assessment of the geographical scale of recurrent gene flow in wild populations of two species of Mekong River carps (Henicorhynchus spp.)

The Mekong is the most productive river fishery in the world, and such as, the Mekong River Basin (MRB) is very important to very large human populations across the region as a source of revenue (through fishing and marketing of aquatic resources products) and as the major source for local animal protein. Threats to biodiversity in the MRB, either to the fishery sector itself or to other sectors are a major concern, even though currently, fisheries across this region are still very productive. If not managed properly however, fish population declines will cause significant economic impact and affect livelihoods of local people and will have a major impact on food security and nutrition. Biodiversity declines will undoubtedly affect food security, income and socio-economic status of people in the MRB that depend on aquatic resources. This is an indicator of unsustainable development and hence should be avoided. Genetic diversity (biodiversity) that can be measured using techniques based on DNA markers; refers to variation within and among populations within the same species or reproductive units. In a population, new genetic variation is generated by sexual recombination contributed by individuals with mutations in genes and chromosomes. Over time, populations of a species that are not reproducing together will diverge as differential impacts of selection and genetic drift change their genetic attributes. For mud carp (Henicorhynchus spp.), understanding the status of breeding units in the MRB will be important for their long term persistence, sustainability and for implementing effective management strategies. Earlier analysis of stock structure in two economically important mud carp species (Henicorhynchus siamensis and H. lobatus) in the MRB completed with mtDNA markers identified a number of populations of both species where gene flow had apparently been interrupted or reduced but applying these data directly to management unit identification is potentially compromised because information was only available about female dispersal patterns. The current study aimed to address this problem and to fully assess the extent of current gene flow (nDNA) and reproductive exchange among selected wild populations of two species of carp (Henicorhynchus spp.) of high economic importance in the MRB using combined mtDNA and nDNA markers. In combination, the data can be used to define effective management units for each species. In general, nDNA diversity for H. lobatus (with average allelic richness (A) 7.56 and average heterozygosity (Ho) 0.61) was very similar to that identified for H. siamensis (A = 6.81 and Ho = 0.75). Both mud carp species show significant but low FST estimates among populations as a result of lower genetic diversity among sampled populations compared with genetic diversity within populations that may potentially mask any 'real' population structure. Overall, population genetic structure patterns from mtDNA and nDNA in both Henicorhynchus species were largely congruent. Different population structures however, were identified for the two Henicorhynchus species across the same geographical area. Apparent co-similarity in morphology and co-distribution of these two relatively closely related species does not apparently imply parallel evolutionary histories. Differences in each species population structure likely reflect historical drainage rearrangement of the Mekong River. The data indicate that H. siamensis is likely to have occupied the Mekong system for much longer than has H. lobatus in the past. Two divergent stocks were identified for H. lobatus in the MRB below the Khone Falls while a single stock had been evident in the earlier mtDNA study. This suggests that the two Henicorhynchus species may possess different life history traits and that different patterns of gene flow has likely influenced modern genetic structure in these close congeners. In combination, results of the earlier mtDNA and the current study have implications for effective management of both Henicorhynchus species across the MRB. Currently, both species are essentially treated as a single management unit in this region. This strategy may be appropriate for H. lobatus as a single stock was evident in the main stream of the MRB, but may not be appropriate for H. siamensis as more than a single stock was identified across the same range for this species. Management strategies should consider this difference to conserve overall biodiversity (local discrete populations) and this will include maintaining natural habitat and migration pathways, provision of fish sanctuaries (refuges) and may also require close monitoring of any stock declines, a signal that may require effective recovery strategies.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.