The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

The prevalence, intensities and risk factors associated with geohelminth infection in tea-growing communities of Assam, India

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors for infection with Ascaris, hookworms and Trichuris in three tea-growing communities in Assam, India. METHODS Single faecal samples were collected from 328 individuals and subjected to centrifugal floatation and the Kato Katz quantitation technique and prevalence and intensities of infection with each parasite calculated. Associations between parasite prevalence, intensity and host and environmental factors were then made using both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The overall prevalence of Ascaris was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33, 43], and the individual prevalence of hookworm and Trichuris was 43% (95% CI: 38, 49). The strongest predictors for the intensity of one or more geohelminths using multiple regression (P less than or equal to 0.10) were socioeconomic status, age, household crowding, level of education, religion, use of footwear when outdoors, defecation practices, pig ownership and water source. CONCLUSION A universal blanket treatment with broad-spectrum anthelmintics together with promotion of scholastic and health education and improvements in sanitation is recommended for helminth control in the communities under study.

Identification of a juvenile hormone esterase-like gene in the honey bee, Apis mellifera L. - Expression analysis and functional assays

Tight control over circulating juvenile hormone (JH) levels is of prime importance in an insect`s life cycle. Consequently, enzymes involved in JH metabolism, especially juvenile hormone esterases (JHEs), play major roles during metamorphosis and reproduction. In the highly eusocial Hymenoptera, JH has been co-opted into additional functions, primarily in the development of the queen and worker castes and in age-related behavioral development of workers. Within a set of 21 carboxylesterases predicted in the honey bee genome we identified one gene (Amjhe-like) that contained the main functional motifs of insect JHEs. Its transcript levels during larval development showed a maximum at the switch from feeding to spinning behavior, coinciding with a JH titer minimum. In adult workers, the highest levels were observed in nurse bees, where a low JH titer is required to prevent the switch to foraging. Functional assays showed that Amjhe-like expression is induced by JH-III and suppressed by 20-hydroxyecdysone. RNAi-mediated silencing of Amjhe-like gene function resulted in a six-fold increase in the JH titer in adult worker bees. The temporal profile of Amjhe-like expression in larval and adult workers, the pattern of hormonal regulation and the knockdown phenotype are consistent with the function of this gene as an authentic JHE. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Current smoking and the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction in the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background: Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however. Objective: To study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people. Methods: From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35 - 64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA ( multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations ( 18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors ( overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group. Results: The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35 - 39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60 - 64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35 - 39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 ( 95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively. Conclusions: During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.

Microcystin production by a freshwater spring cyanobacterium of the genus Fischerella

We investigated the production of a hepatotoxic, cyclic heptapeptide, microcystin, by a filamentous branched cyanobacterium belonging to the order Stigonematales, genus Fischerella. The freshwater Fischerella sp. strain CENA161 was isolated from spring water in a small concrete dam in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, and identified by combining a morphological description with 16S rRNA gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Microcystin (MCYST) analysis performed using an ELISA assay on cultured cells gave positive results. High performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) analysis detected 33.6 mu g MCYST-LR per gram dry weight of cyanobacterial cells. Microcystin profile revealed by quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (Q-TOF-MS/MS) analysis confirmed the production of MCYST-LR. Furthermore, genomic DNA was analyzed by PCR for sequences similar to the ketosynthase (KS) domain of the type I polyketide synthase gene, which is involved in microcystin biosynthesis. This revealed the presence of a KS nucleotide fragment similar to the mcyD and ndaD genes of the microcystin and nodularin synthetase complexes. Phylogenetic analysis grouped the Fischerella KS sequence together with mcyD sequences of the three known microcystin synthetase operon (Microcystis, Planktothrix and Anabaena) and ndaD of the nodularin synthetase operon, with 100% bootstrap support. Our findings demonstrate that Fischerella sp. CENA161 produces MYCST-LR and for the first time identify a nucleotide sequence putatively involved in microcystin synthesis in this genus. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of trail pheromone compounds from the labial glands of the stingless bee Geotrigona mombuca

Foragers of several species of stingless bees deposit pheromone spots in the vegetation to guide recruited nestmates to a rich food source. Recent studies have shown that Trigona and Scaptotrigona workers secrete these pheromones from their labial glands. An earlier report stated that species within the genus Geotrigona use citral from their mandibular glands for scent marking. Since convincing experimental proof for this conjecture is lacking, we studied the glandular origin of the trail pheromone of Geotrigona mombuca. In field bioassays, newly recruited bees were diverted by artificial scent trails that branched off from the natural scent trail deposited by their nestmates only when they were baited with extracts from the foragers` labial glands. Compounds extracted from the mandibular glands, however, did not release trail following behavior. This demonstrates that the trail pheromone of G. mombuca is produced in the labial glands, as in Trigona and Scaptotrigona. Furthermore, in chemical analyses citral was identified exclusively in the foragers` mandibular glands, which disproves its supposed role as a trail pheromone. The labial glands contained a series of terpene- and wax type esters, with farnesyl butanoate as major constituent. We, therefore, postulate that the trail pheromone of G. mombuca is composed of a blend of esters.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Serum triglycerides as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background-The importance of serum triglyceride levels as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases is uncertain. Methods and Results-We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. Cox models were applied to the combined data from 26 studies to estimate the overall and region-, sex-, and age-specific hazard ratios for major cardiovascular diseases by fifths of triglyceride values. During 796 671 person-years of follow-up among 96 224 individuals, 670 and 667 deaths as a result of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, respectively, were recorded. After adjustment for major cardiovascular risk factors, participants grouped in the highest fifth of triglyceride levels had a 70% (95% CI, 47 to 96) greater risk of CHD death, an 80% (95% CI, 49 to 119) higher risk of fatal or nonfatal CHD, and a 50% (95% CI, 29% to 76%) increased risk of fatal or nonfatal stroke compared with those belonging to the lowest fifth. The association between triglycerides and CHD death was similar across subgroups defined by ethnicity, age, and sex. Conclusions-Serum triglycerides are an important and independent predictor of CHD and stroke risk in the Asia-Pacific region. These results may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prediction and the use of lipid-lowering therapy.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Teen Triple P: A universal approach to reducing risk factors for behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents at the transition to high school

Teen Triple P is a multilevel system of intervention that is designed to provide parents with specific strategies to promote the positive development of their teenage children as they make the transition into high school and through puberty. The program is based on a combination of education about the developmental needs of adolescents, skills training to improve communication and problem-solving, plus specific modules to deal with common problems encountered by parents and adolescents that can escalate into major conflict and violence. It is designed to increase the engagement of parents of adolescent and pre-adolescent children by providing them with easy access to evidencebased parenting advice and support. This paper presents data collected as part of a survey of over 1400 students in first year high school at 9 Brisbane schools. The survey instrument was constructed to obtain students' reports about behaviour which is known to be associated with their health and wellbeing, and also on the extent to which their parents promoted or discouraged such behaviour at home, at school, and in their social and recreational activities in the wider community. Selected data from the survey were extracted and presented to parents at a series of parenting seminars held at the schools to promote appropriate parenting of teenagers. The objectives were to provide parents with accurate data about teenagers' behaviour, and about teenagers' reports of how they perceived their parents' behaviour. Normative data on parent and teenager behaviour will be presented from the survey as well as psychometric data relating to the reliability and validity of this new measure. Implications of this strategy for increasing parent engagement in parenting programs that aim to reduce behavioural and emotional problems in adolescents will be discussed.

Suppressing the negative effect of devaluation on group identification: The role of intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect

We examined (N = 76) how social creativity strategies such as intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect suppress the negative impact of threat to an ingroup's value on group identification. Threat was manipulated through false feedback concerning how other groups perceived an ingroup. Both intergroup differentiation and intragroup respect were higher when participants learned that the ingroup was devalued compared to when it was valued. Mediational analyses demonstrated that these factors suppressed the direct negative relationship between value threat and group identification. Discussion focused on the consequences of these social creativity strategies for group identification and collective action. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.