Modeling the marine aragonite cycle: changes under rising carbon dioxide and its role in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution

The marine aragonite cycle has been included in the global biogeochemical model PISCES to study the role of aragonite in shallow water CaCO3 dissolution. Aragonite production is parameterized as a function of mesozooplankton biomass and aragonite saturation state of ambient waters. Observation-based estimates of marine carbonate production and dissolution are well reproduced by the model and about 60% of the combined CaCO3 water column dissolution from aragonite and calcite is simulated above 2000 m. In contrast, a calcite-only version yields a much smaller fraction. This suggests that the aragonite cycle should be included in models for a realistic representation of CaCO3 dissolution and alkalinity. For the SRES A2 CO2 scenario, production rates of aragonite are projected to notably decrease after 2050. By the end of this century, global aragonite production is reduced by 29% and total CaCO3 production by 19% relative to pre-industrial. Geographically, the effect from increasing atmospheric CO2, and the subsequent reduction in saturation state, is largest in the subpolar and polar areas where the modeled aragonite production is projected to decrease by 65% until 2100.

Interactive effects of ocean acidification and rising sea temperatures alter predation rate and predator selectivity in reef fish communities

Ocean warming and acidification are serious threats to marine life. While each stressor alone has been studied in detail, their combined effects on the outcome of ecological interactions are poorly understood. We measured predation rates and predator selectivity of two closely related species of damselfish exposed to a predatory dottyback. We found temperature and CO2 interacted synergistically on overall predation rate, but antagonistically on predator selectivity. Notably, elevated CO2 or temperature alone reversed predator selectivity, but the interaction between the two stressors cancelled selectivity. Routine metabolic rates of the two prey showed strong species differences in tolerance to CO2 and not temperature, but these differences did not correlate with recorded mortality. This highlights the difficulty of linking species-level physiological tolerance to resulting ecological outcomes. This study is the first to document both synergistic and antagonistic effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on a crucial ecological process like predator-prey dynamics.

Trade, Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in East Asia: Why the Electronics Cycle Matters

Against the background of increasing regional trade and investment, there is growing interest in monetary and macroeconomic policy coordination in East Asia. Although there is a sizable literature on macroeconomic linkages among East Asian countries and the potential merit of policy coordination in the region, the existing studies tend to examine these issues exclusively in terms of macroeconomic variables and do not consider how these aggregate variables are influenced by one prominent feature of a number of East Asian economies: their heavy dependence on the electronics industry. Although active engagement in the global electronics industry has been a powerful growth engine for the Asian countries, it has also left their economies vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in the world electronics market. As the cycle of the global electronics industry exerts profound impacts on the medium-term dynamics of the Asian economies, it is imperative to take an explicit account of its influence when studying the way in which the regional economies are linked to one another and how this relationship can be altered by a specific policy initiative. We illustrate the importance of this point by examining recent studies on: (1) trade competition between China andother Asian countries and the role of the Chinese renminbi therein; and (2) the effect offluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate on the regional economies.

Radiocarbon ages, dose rates, water isotopic composition and hydrochemistry of samples from Komakuk Beach and Herschel Island

Terrestrial permafrost archives along the Yukon Coastal Plain (northwest Canada) have recorded landscape development and environmental change since the Late Wisconsinan at the interface of unglaciated Beringia (i.e. Komakuk Beach) and the northwestern limit of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e. Herschel Island). The objective of this paper is to compare the late glacial and Holocene landscape development on both sides of the former ice margin based on permafrost sequences and ground ice. Analyses at these sites involved a multi-proxy approach including: sedimentology, cryostratigraphy, palaeoecology of ostracods, stable water isotopes in ground ice, hydrochemistry, and AMS radiocarbon and infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. AMS and IRSL age determinations yielded full glacial ages at Komakuk Beach that is the northeastern limit of ice-free Beringia. Herschel Island to the east marks the Late Wisconsinan limit of the northwest Laurentide Ice Sheet and is composed of ice-thrust sediments containing plant detritus as young as 16.2 cal ka BP that might provide a maximum age on ice arrival. Late Wisconsinan ice wedges with sediment-rich fillings on Herschel Island are depleted in heavy oxygen isotopes (mean d18O of -29.1 per mil); this, together with low d-excess values, indicates colder-than-modern winter temperatures and probably reduced snow depths. Grain-size distribution and fossil ostracod assemblages indicate that deglaciation of the Herschel Island ice-thrust moraine was accompanied by alluvial, proluvial, and eolian sedimentation on the adjacent unglaciated Yukon Coastal Plain until ~11 cal ka BP during a period of low glacio-eustatic sea level. The late glacial-Holocene transition was marked by higher-than-modern summer temperatures leading to permafrost degradation that began no later than 11.2 cal ka BP and caused a regional thaw unconformity. Cryostructures and ice wedges were truncated while organic matter was incorporated and soluble ions were leached in the thaw zone. Thermokarst activity led to the formation of ice-wedge casts and deposition of thermokarst lake sediments. These were subsequently covered by rapidly accumulating peat during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum. A rising permafrost table, reduced peat accumulation, and extensive ice-wedge growth resulted from climate cooling starting in the middle Holocene until the late 20th century. The reconstruction of palaeolandscape dynamics on the Yukon Coastal Plain and the eastern Beringian edge contributes to unraveling the linkages between ice sheet, ocean, and permafrost that have existed since the Late Wisconsinan.

Pacific Neogene carbonate accumulation rates

I have compiled CaCO3 mass accumulation rates (MARs) for the period 0-25 Ma for 144 Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program drill sites in the Pacific in order to investigate the history of CaCO3 burial in the world's largest ocean basin. This is the first synthesis of data since the beginning of the Ocean Drilling Program. Sedimentation rates, CaCO3 contents, and bulk density were estimated for 0.5 Myr time intervals from 0 to 14 Ma and for 1 Myr time intervals from 14 to 25 Ma using mostly data from Initial Reports volumes. There is surprisingly little coherence between CaCO3 MAR time series from different Pacific regions, although regional patterns exist. A transition from high to low CaCO3 MAR from 23-20 Ma is the only event common to the entire Pacific Ocean. This event is found worldwide. The most likely cause of lowered pelagic carbonate burial is a rising sea-level trend in the early Miocene. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific is the only region with adequate drill site coverage to study carbonate compensation depth (CCD) changes in detail for the entire Neogene. The latitude-dependent decrease in CaCO3 production away from the equator is an important defining factor of the regional CCD, which shallows away from the equatorial region. Examination of latitudinal transects across the equatorial region is a useful way to separate the effects of changes in carbonate production ('productivity') from changes in bottom water chemistry ('dissolution') upon carbonate burial.

Rock eval analysis of organic matter in sediment core 159-959D

The Cretaceous Equatorial Atlantic Gateway between the Central and South Atlantic basins is of interest not only for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic studies, but also because it provided particularly favourable conditions for the accumulation and preservation of organic-rich sediments. Deposition of carbonaceous sediments along the Côte d'Ivoire-Ghana Transform Margin (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 159) was intimately linked to the plate tectonic and paleoceanographic evolution of this gateway. Notably, the formation of a marginal basement ridge on the southeastern border of the transform margin provided an efficient shelter of the landward Deep Ivorian Basin against erosive and potentially oxidizing currents. Different subsidence histories across the transform margin were responsible for the development of distinct depositional settings on the crest and on both sides of the basement ridge. Whereas the southern, oceanward flank of the basement ridge was characterized by rapid, continuous deepening since last Albian-early Cenomanian, marine sedimentation on the northern, landward flank was interrupted by a period of uplift and erosion in the late Albian, and rapid subsidence started after the early Coniacian. Organic-rich sediments occur throughout almost the entire Cretaceous section, but hydrogen-rich marine black shales were exclusively recovered from core sections above an uplift-related unconformity. These black shales formed when separation of Africa and South America was sufficient to allow permanent oceanic midwater exchange after the late Albian. Four periods of black shale accumulation are recovered, some of them are correlated with the global oceanic anoxic events: in the last Albian-earliest Cenomanian, at the Cenomanian-Turronian boundary, during the middle Coniacian-early Campanian, and in the mid-Maastrichtian. These periods were characterized by increasing carbon flux to the seafloor, induced by enhanced palaeoproductivity and intensified supply of terrestrial organic matter. Black shale depostion appears to be intimately linked to periods of rising or maximum eustatic sea level and to the expansion of the oxygen minimum zone, as indicated by foraminiferal biofacies. Intervals between black shales units, in contrast, indicate a shrinking oxygen minimum zone and enhanced detrital flux rates, probably related to lowering sea level. Upper Cretaceous detritral limestones with high porosities may provide excellent hydrocarbon reservoirs, alsthough their areal extent appears to be limited. Palaeogene porcellanites, capped by Neogene pelagic marls and clays, extend over a wider area and max provide another target for hydrocarbon exploration.

Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

British drinking: a suitable case for treatment?

The rising consumption of alcohol per capita in Britain over the past 20 years has produced large increases in the prevalence of alcoholic cirrhosis, alcohol related violence, and heavy alcohol use, costing the British economy around £30bn ($55bn; {euro}44bn) a year.1 About 7.5% of men and 2.1% of women in Britain are dependent on alcohol, among the highest rates in the European Union.2 Two papers in this issue show that two relatively brief psychosocial interventions—motivational enhancement treatment and social network therapy—are effective and cost effective in treating alcohol dependence, when delivered under routine clinical conditions in the NHS.3 4 The UK government could realise its stated aim of increasing access to effective treatments for alcohol dependence by investing in these interventions. Britain also urgently needs to reduce the high rates of high risk drinking that produce dependence, health problems, and public disorder. Epidemiologists see the key drivers of rising consumption . . . [Full text of this article]

Az egyensúlyi ráták unicitása és a bérráta pozitivitása a Neumann-modell általánosításaiban (Uniqueness of equilibrium rates and the positive value of the wage rate in generalizations from the Neumann model)

Cikkünk arról a paradox jelenségről szól, hogy a fogyasztást explicit módon megjelenítő Neumann-modell egyensúlyi megoldásaiban a munkabért meghatározó létszükségleti termékek ára esetenként nulla lehet, és emiatt a reálbér egyensúlyi értéke is nulla lesz. Ez a jelenség mindig bekövetkezik az olyan dekomponálható gazdaságok esetén, amelyekben eltérő növekedési és profitrátájú, alternatív egyensúlyi megoldások léteznek. A jelenség sokkal áttekinthetőbb formában tárgyalható a modell Leontief-eljárásra épülő egyszerűbb változatában is, amit ki is használunk. Megmutatjuk, hogy a legnagyobbnál alacsonyabb szintű növekedési tényezőjű megoldások közgazdasági szempontból értelmetlenek, és így érdektelenek. Ezzel voltaképpen egyrészt azt mutatjuk meg, hogy Neumann kiváló intuíciója jól működött, amikor ragaszkodott modellje egyértelmű megoldásához, másrészt pedig azt is, hogy ehhez nincs szükség a gazdaság dekomponálhatóságának feltételezésére. A vizsgált téma szorosan kapcsolódik az általános profitráta meghatározásának - Sraffa által modern formába öntött - Ricardo-féle elemzéséhez, illetve a neoklasszikus növekedéselmélet nevezetes bér-profit, illetve felhalmozás-fogyasztás átváltási határgörbéihez, ami jelzi a téma elméleti és elmélettörténeti érdekességét is. / === / In the Marx-Neumann version of the Neumann model introduced by Morishima, the use of commodities is split between production and consumption, and wages are determined as the cost of necessary consumption. In such a version it may occur that the equilibrium prices of all goods necessary for consumption are zero, so that the equilibrium wage rate becomes zero too. In fact such a paradoxical case will always arise when the economy is decomposable and the equilibrium not unique in terms of growth and interest rate. It can be shown that a zero equilibrium wage rate will appear in all equilibrium solutions where growth and interest rate are less than maximal. This is another proof of Neumann's genius and intuition, for he arrived at the uniqueness of equilibrium via an assumption that implied that the economy was indecomposable, a condition relaxed later by Kemeny, Morgenstern and Thompson. This situation occurs also in similar models based on Leontief technology and such versions of the Marx-Neumann model make the roots of the problem more apparent. Analysis of them also yields an interesting corollary to Ricardo's corn rate of profit: the real cause of the awkwardness is bad specification of the model: luxury commodities are introduced without there being a final demand for them, and production of them becomes a waste of resources. Bad model specification shows up as a consumption coefficient incompatible with the given technology in the more general model with joint production and technological choice. For the paradoxical situation implies the level of consumption could be raised and/or the intensity of labour diminished without lowering the equilibrium rate of the growth and interest. This entails wasteful use of resources and indicates again that the equilibrium conditions are improperly specified. It is shown that the conditions for equilibrium can and should be redefined for the Marx-Neumann model without assuming an indecomposable economy, in a way that ensures the existence of an equilibrium unique in terms of the growth and interest rate coupled with a positive value for the wage rate, so confirming Neumann's intuition. The proposed solution relates closely to findings of Bromek in a paper correcting Morishima's generalization of wage/profit and consumption/investment frontiers.

Empirical study of exchange rates in Brazil, Canada and the Caribbean

This dissertation examines the monetary models of exchange rate determination for Brazil, Canada, and two countries in the Caribbean, namely, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the exception of Canada, the others adopted the floating regime during the past ten years.^ The empirical validity of four seminal models in exchange rate economics were determined. Three of these models were entirely classical (Bilson and Frenkel) or Keynesian (Dornbusch) in nature. The fourth model (Real Interest Differential Model) was a mixture of the two schools of economic theory.^ There is no clear empirical evidence of the validity of the monetary models. However, the signs of the coefficients of the nominal interest differential variable were as predicted by the Keynesian hypothesis in the case of Canada and as predicted by the Chicago theorists in the remaining countries. Moreover, in case of Brazil, due to hyperinflation, the exchange rate is heavily influenced by domestic money supply.^ I also tested the purchasing power parity (PPP) for this same set of countries. For both the monetary as well as the PPP hypothesis, I tested for co-integration and applied ordinary least squares estimation procedure. The error correction model was also used for the PPP model, to determine convergence to equilibrium.^ The validity of PPP is also questionable for my set of countries. Endogeinity among the regressors as well as the lack of proper price indices are the contributing factors. More importantly, Central Bank intervention negate rapid adjustment of price and exchange rates to their equilibrium value. However, its forecasting capability for the period 1993-1994 is superior compared to the monetary models in two of the four cases.^ I conclude that in spite of the questionable validity of these models, the monetary models give better results in the case of the "smaller" economies like the Dominican Republic and Jamaica where monetary influences swamp the other determinants of exchange rate. ^

The relationship between faculty perceptions and implementation of elements of transactional distance theory and online web-based course completion rates

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between faculty perceptions, selected demographics, implementation of elements of transactional distance theory and online web-based course completion rates. This theory posits that the high transactional distance of online courses makes it difficult for students to complete these courses successfully; too often this is associated with low completion rates. Faculty members play an indispensable role in course design, whether online or face-to-face. They also influence course delivery format from design through implementation and ultimately to how students will experience the course. This study used transactional distance theory as the conceptual framework to examine the relationship between teaching and learning strategies used by faculty members to help students complete online courses. Faculty members' sex, number of years teaching online at the college, and their online course completion rates were considered. A researcher-developed survey was used to collect data from 348 faculty members who teach online at two prominent colleges in the southeastern part of United States. An exploratory factor analysis resulted in six factors related to transactional distance theory. The factors accounted for slightly over 65% of the variance of transactional distance scores as measured by the survey instrument. Results provided support for Moore's (1993) theory of transactional distance. Female faculty members scored higher in all the factors of transactional distance theory when compared to men. Faculty number of years teaching online at the college level correlated significantly with all the elements of transactional distance theory. Regression analysis was used to determine that two of the factors, instructor interface and instructor-learner interaction, accounted for 12% of the variance in student online course completion rates. In conclusion, of the six factors found, the two with the highest percentage scores were instructor interface and instructor-learner interaction. This finding, while in alignment with the literature concerning the dialogue element of transactional distance theory, brings a special interest to the importance of instructor interface as a factor. Surprisingly, based on the reviewed literature on transactional distance theory, faculty perceptions concerning learner-learner interaction was not an important factor and there was no learner-content interaction factor.

Rising CO2 and increased light exposure synergistically reduce marine primary productivity

Carbon dioxide and light are two major prerequisites of photosynthesis. Rising CO2 levels in oceanic surface waters in combination with ample light supply are therefore often considered stimulatory to marine primary production. Here we show that the combination of an increase in both CO2 and light exposure negatively impacts photosynthesis and growth of marine primary producers. When exposed to CO2 concentrations projected for the end of this century, natural phytoplankton assemblages of the South China Sea responded with decreased primary production and increased light stress at light intensities representative of the upper surface layer. The phytoplankton community shifted away from diatoms, the dominant phytoplankton group during our field campaigns. To examine the underlying mechanisms of the observed responses, we grew diatoms at different CO2 concentrations and under varying levels (5-100%) of solar radiation experienced by the phytoplankton at different depths of the euphotic zone. Above 22-36% of incident surface irradiance, growth rates in the high-CO2-grown cells were inversely related to light levels and exhibited reduced thresholds at which light becomes inhibitory. Future shoaling of upper-mixed-layer depths will expose phytoplankton to increased mean light intensities. In combination with rising CO2 levels, this may cause a widespread decline in marine primary production and a community shift away from diatoms, the main algal group that supports higher trophic levels and carbon export in the ocean.

An experimental investigation of air flow and convective heat transfer in enclosures having large ventilative flow rates

The prediction of convective heat transfer in enclosures under high ventilative flow rates is primarily of interest for building design and simulation purposes. Current models are based on experiments performed forty years ago with flat plates under natural convection conditions.

Neural fields with sigmoidal firing rates: approximate solutions

Many tissue level models of neural networks are written in the language of nonlinear integro-differential equations. Analytical solutions have only been obtained for the special case that the nonlinearity is a Heaviside function. Thus the pursuit of even approximate solutions to such models is of interest to the broad mathematical neuroscience community. Here we develop one such scheme, for stationary and travelling wave solutions, that can deal with a certain class of smoothed Heaviside functions. The distribution that smoothes the Heaviside is viewed as a fundamental object, and all expressions describing the scheme are constructed in terms of integrals over this distribution. The comparison of our scheme and results from direct numerical simulations is used to highlight the very good levels of approximation that can be achieved by iterating the process only a small number of times.

The Relationship between Faculty Perceptions and Implementation of Elements of Transactional Distance Theory and Online Web-Based Course Completion Rates

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between faculty perceptions, selected demographics, implementation of elements of transactional distance theory and online web-based course completion rates. This theory posits that the high transactional distance of online courses makes it difficult for students to complete these courses successfully; too often this is associated with low completion rates. Faculty members play an indispensable role in course design, whether online or face-to-face. They also influence course delivery format from design through implementation and ultimately to how students will experience the course. This study used transactional distance theory as the conceptual framework to examine the relationship between teaching and learning strategies used by faculty members to help students complete online courses. Faculty members’ sex, number of years teaching online at the college, and their online course completion rates were considered. A researcher-developed survey was used to collect data from 348 faculty members who teach online at two prominent colleges in the southeastern part of United States. An exploratory factor analysis resulted in six factors related to transactional distance theory. The factors accounted for slightly over 65% of the variance of transactional distance scores as measured by the survey instrument. Results provided support for Moore’s (1993) theory of transactional distance. Female faculty members scored higher in all the factors of transactional distance theory when compared to men. Faculty number of years teaching online at the college level correlated significantly with all the elements of transactional distance theory. Regression analysis was used to determine that two of the factors, instructor interface and instructor-learner interaction, accounted for 12% of the variance in student online course completion rates. In conclusion, of the six factors found, the two with the highest percentage scores were instructor interface and instructor-learner interaction. This finding, while in alignment with the literature concerning the dialogue element of transactional distance theory, brings a special interest to the importance of instructor interface as a factor. Surprisingly, based on the reviewed literature on transactional distance theory, faculty perceptions concerning learner-learner interaction was not an important factor and there was no learner-content interaction factor.