Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Phyllochron estimation in intercropped strawberry and monocrop systems in a protected environment

The phyllochron is defined as the time required for the appearance of successive leaves on a plant; this characterises plant growth, development and adaptation to the environment. To check the growth and adaptation in cultivars of strawberry grown intercropped with fig trees, it was estimated the phyllochron in these production systems and in the monocrop. The experiment was conducted in greenhouses at the University of Passo Fundo (28º15'41'' S, 52º24'45'' W and 709 m) from June 8th to September 4th, 2009; this comprised the period of transplant until the 2nd flowering. The cultivars Aromas, Camino Real, Albion, Camarosa and Ventana, which seedlings were originated from the Agrícola LLahuen Nursery in Chile, as well as Festival, Camino Real and Earlibrite, originated from the Viansa S.A. Nursery in Argentina, were grown in white polyethylene bags filled with commercial substrate (Tecnomax®) and evaluated. The treatments were arranged in a randomised block design and four replicates were performed. A linear regression was realized between the leaf number (LN) in the main crown and the accumulated thermal time (ATT). The phyllochron (degree-day leaf-1) was estimated as the inverse of the angular coefficient of the linear regression. The data were submitted to ANOVA, and when significance was observed, the means were compared using the Tukey test (p < 0.05). The mean and standard deviation of phyllochrons of strawberry cultivars intercropped with fig trees varied from 149.35ºC day leaf-1 ± 31.29 in the Albion cultivar to 86.34ºC day leaf-1 ± 34.74 in the Ventana cultivar. Significant differences were observed among cultivars produced in a soilless environment with higher values recorded for Albion (199.96ºC day leaf-1 ± 29.7), which required more degree-days to produce a leaf, while cv. Ventana (85.76ºC day leaf-1 ± 11.51) exhibited a lower phyllochron mean value. Based on these results, Albion requires more degree-days to issue a leaf as compared to cv. Ventana. It was conclude that strawberry cultivars can be grown intercropped with fig trees (cv. Roxo de Valinhos).

Development of rotating drum under mechanical and thermal load

A variable temperature field sets exacting demands to the structure under mechanical load. Most of all the lifetime of the rotating drum structure depends on temperature differences between parts inside the drum. The temperature difference was known because of the measurements made before. The list of demands was created based on customers’ needs. The limits of this paper were set to the inner structure of the drum. Creation of ideas for the inner structure was started open minded. The main principle in the creation process was to create new ideas for the function of the product with the help of sub-functions. The sub-functions were created as independent as possible. The best sub-functions were combined together and the new working principles were created based on them. Every working principle was calculated separately and criticized at the end of the calculation process. The main objective was to create the new kind of structure, which is not based too much to the old, inoperative structure. The affect of own weight of the inner structure to the stress values was quite small but it was also taken into consideration when calculating the maximum stress value of the structure. Because of very complex structures all of the calculations were made with the help of the ProE – Mechanica software. The fatigue analyze was made also for the best structure solution.

The Effect of Load Follow Operation on Fuel Behaviour in Loviisa NPP

Työn tarkoituksena oli analysoida polttoainesauvojen käyttäytymistä Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen tehonsäätöajossa. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen Pohjoismaissa sekä tämän seurauksena vaihteleva sähkön markkinahinta ovat ajaneet sähkötuottajat tilanteeseen, jossa tuotanto aiempaa enemmän mukautuu markkinatilanteeseen. Näin ollen myös Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen osallistuminen sähkön tuotannon säätelyyn saattaa tulevaisuudessa olla ajankohtaista. Ennen kuin reaktorin tehonsäätöajoa voidaan alkaa toteuttaa, tulee varmistua siitä, että polttoainesauvassa tehonsäätöjen seurauksena tapahtuvat muutokset eivät aiheuta epäsuotuisia käyttäytymisilmiöitä. Työssä tarkastellaan kahden Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen polttoainetoimittajan, British Nuclear Fuels plc:n ja venäläisen TVEL:n ensinippujen polttoainesauvan käyttäytymistä tehonsäätötapauksissa. Työssä tarkastellut tehonsäätötapaukset on pyritty valitsemaan niin, että ne kuvaisivat tulevaisuudessa mahdollisesti toteutettavia tehonsäätöjä. Laskentatapauksien sauvatehohistoriat on generoitu HEXBU-3D sydänsimulaattoriohjelmalla lasketun nelivuotisen perustehohistorian pohjalta lisäämällä säätösauvan aiheuttama reaktoritehon muutos, säätösauvan viereisen polttoainenipun aksiaalitehon muutos sekä säätösauvan rakenteen aiheuttama paikallinen tehopiikki säätösauvan vieressä. Työssä tarkastellaan tehonsäätöjen toteuttamista eri tehotasoille ja vaihtelevilla määrillä tehonsäätösyklejä. Työssä käsitellyt laskentatapaukset on jaoteltu reaktorin ajotavan mukaan seuraavasti: peruskuorma-ajo, viikonloppusäätö ja päiväsäätö. Laskenta suoritettiin ydinpolttoaineen käyttäytymistä kuvaavaa ENIGMA-B 7.3.0 ohjelmaa apuna käyttäen. Laskelmien tulokset osoittavat, että molempien polttoainetoimittajien ensinippujen sauvat kestävät reaktorin tehonsäätöajoa rajoituksetta tarkastelluissa laskentatapauksissa. ENIGMA-ohjelman sisältämät mallit, jotka ennustavat polttoainesauvan suojakuoren vaurioitumistodennäköisyyden jännityskorroosion tai väsymismurtuman kautta, eivät näytä mitään merkkejä vaurioitumisesta. BNFL:n polttoainesauva saavuttaa kuitenkin suurempia väsymismurtumatodennäköisyyden arvoja. Tämä johtuu siitä, että polttoainepelletin ja suojakuoren välinen mekaaninen vuorovaikutus syntyy BNFL:n sauvassa aikaisemmin, joka taas johtaa suurempaan määrään sauvaa rasittavia muodonmuutoksia tehonnostotilanteissa. TVEL:n Zr1%Nb -materiaalista valmistetun suojakuoren käyttäytymistä ei voida kuitenkaan suoraan näiden laskujen perusteella arvioida, sillä ENIGMA-ohjelman mallit perustuvat Zircaloy-suojakuorimateriaaleilla suoritettuihin kokeisiin.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 35-64 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 mg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume RΠ The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Influence of heart motion on cardiac output estimation by means of electrical impedance tomography: a case study.

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a non-invasive imaging technique that can measure cardiac-related intra-thoracic impedance changes. EIT-based cardiac output estimation relies on the assumption that the amplitude of the impedance change in the ventricular region is representative of stroke volume (SV). However, other factors such as heart motion can significantly affect this ventricular impedance change. In the present case study, a magnetic resonance imaging-based dynamic bio-impedance model fitting the morphology of a single male subject was built. Simulations were performed to evaluate the contribution of heart motion and its influence on EIT-based SV estimation. Myocardial deformation was found to be the main contributor to the ventricular impedance change (56%). However, motion-induced impedance changes showed a strong correlation (r = 0.978) with left ventricular volume. We explained this by the quasi-incompressibility of blood and myocardium. As a result, EIT achieved excellent accuracy in estimating a wide range of simulated SV values (error distribution of 0.57 ± 2.19 ml (1.02 ± 2.62%) and correlation of r = 0.996 after a two-point calibration was applied to convert impedance values to millilitres). As the model was based on one single subject, the strong correlation found between motion-induced changes and ventricular volume remains to be verified in larger datasets.

Postnatal ontogenesis of the tibia. Implications for age and sex estimation

The growth of five variables of the tibia (diaphyseal length, diaphyseal length plus distal epiphysis, condylo-malleolar length, sagittal diameter of the proximal epiphysis, maximum breadth of the distal epiphysis) were analysed using polynomial regression in order to evaluate their significance and capacity for age and sex determination during and after growth. Data were collected from 181 (90♂ and 91♀) individuals ranging from birth to 25 years of age and belonging to three documented collections from Western Europe. Results indicate that all five variables exhibit linear behaviour during growth, which can be expressed by a first-degree polynomial function. Sexual significant differences were observed from age 15 onward in the two epiphysis measurements and condylo-malleolar length, suggesting that these three variables could be useful for sex determination in individuals older than 15 years. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between the five tibial variables and age. These results indicate that any of the studied tibial measurements is likely to serve as a useful source for estimating sub-adult age in both archaeological and forensic samples.

Load and Performance Testing of Web Applications on Service Based Environments

Suorituskyky- ja kuormitustestien tekeminen sovelluksille on erittäin tärkeä osa tuotantoprosessia nykypäivänä. Myös Web-sovelluksia testataan yhä enemmän. Tarve suorituskyky- ja kuormitustestien tekemiselle on selvä. Testattavan ympäristön tämänhetkinen, mutta myös tulevaisuuden toimivuus taataan oikein tehdyillä testeillä ja niitä seuraavilla korjaustoimenpiteillä. Suurten käyttäjämäärien testaaminen manuaalisesti on kuitenkin hyvin vaikeaa. Sirpaleisen ympäristön, kuten palveluihin perustuvien Web-sovellusympäristöjen testaaminen on haaste. Tämän työn aiheena on arvioida työkaluja ja menetelmiä, joilla raskaita teollisia Web-sovelluksia voidaan testata. Tavoitteena on löytää testausmenetelmiä, joilla voidaan luotettavasti simuloida suuria käyttäjämääriä. Tavoitteena on myös arvioida erilaisten yhteyksien ja protokollien vaikutusta Web-sovelluksen suorituskykyyn.

Structured sparsity for spatially coherent fibre orientation estimation in diffusion MRI.

We propose a novel formulation to solve the problem of intra-voxel reconstruction of the fibre orientation distribution function (FOD) in each voxel of the white matter of the brain from diffusion MRI data. The majority of the state-of-the-art methods in the field perform the reconstruction on a voxel-by-voxel level, promoting sparsity of the orientation distribution. Recent methods have proposed a global denoising of the diffusion data using spatial information prior to reconstruction, while others promote spatial regularisation through an additional empirical prior on the diffusion image at each q-space point. Our approach reconciles voxelwise sparsity and spatial regularisation and defines a spatially structured FOD sparsity prior, where the structure originates from the spatial coherence of the fibre orientation between neighbour voxels. The method is shown, through both simulated and real data, to enable accurate FOD reconstruction from a much lower number of q-space samples than the state of the art, typically 15 samples, even for quite adverse noise conditions.

Cost Estimation of Engineering Environment Services

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää tutkittavan insinööriyksikön projektien kustannusestimointiprosessia, siten että yksikön johdolla olisi tulevaisuudessa käytettävänään tarkempaa kustannustietoa. Jotta tämä olisi mahdollista, ensin täytyi selvittää yksikön toimintatavat, projektien kustannusrakenteet sekä kustannusatribuutit. Tämän teki mahdolliseksi projektien kustannushistoriatiedon tutkiminen sekä asiantuntijoiden haastattelu. Työn tuloksena syntyi kohdeyksikön muiden prosessien kanssa yhteensopiva kustannusestimointiprosessi sekä –malli.Kustannusestimointimenetelmän ja –mallin perustana on kustannusatribuutit, jotka määritellään erikseen tutkittavassa ympäristössä. Kustannusatribuutit löydetään historiatietoa tutkimalla, eli analysoimalla jo päättyneitä projekteja, projektien kustannusrakenteita sekä tekijöitä, jotka ovat vaikuttaneet kustannusten syntyyn. Tämän jälkeen kustannusatribuuteille täytyy määritellä painoarvot sekä painoarvojen vaihteluvälit. Estimointimallin tarkuutta voidaan parantaa mallin kalibroinnilla. Olen käyttänyt Goal – Question – Metric (GQM) –menetelmää tutkimuksen kehyksenä.

EEG Windowed statitical wavelet deviation for estimation of muscular artifacts

Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings are, most of the times, corrupted by spurious artifacts, which should be rejected or cleaned by the practitioner. As human scalp EEG screening is error-prone, automatic artifact detection is an issue of capital importance, to ensure objective and reliable results. In this paper we propose a new approach for discrimination of muscular activity in the human scalp quantitative EEG (QEEG), based on the time-frequency shape analysis. The impact of the muscular activity on the EEG can be evaluated from this methodology. We present an application of this scoring as a preprocessing step for EEG signal analysis, in order to evaluate the amount of muscular activity for two set of EEG recordings for dementia patients with early stage of Alzheimer’s disease and control age-matched subjects.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

Direct noninvasive estimation of myocardial tricarboxylic acid cycle flux in vivo using hyperpolarized (13)C magnetic resonance.

BACKGROUND: The heart relies on continuous energy production and imbalances herein impair cardiac function directly. The tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle is the primary means of energy generation in the healthy myocardium, but direct noninvasive quantification of metabolic fluxes is challenging due to the low concentration of most metabolites. Hyperpolarized (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) provides the opportunity to measure cellular metabolism in real time in vivo. The aim of this work was to noninvasively measure myocardial TCA cycle flux (VTCA) in vivo within a single minute. METHODS AND RESULTS: Hyperpolarized [1-(13)C]acetate was administered at different concentrations in healthy rats. (13)C incorporation into [1-(13)C]acetylcarnitine and the TCA cycle intermediate [5-(13)C]citrate was dynamically detected in vivo with a time resolution of 3s. Different kinetic models were established and evaluated to determine the metabolic fluxes by simultaneously fitting the evolution of the (13)C labeling in acetate, acetylcarnitine, and citrate. VTCA was estimated to be 6.7±1.7μmol·g(-1)·min(-1) (dry weight), and was best estimated with a model using only the labeling in citrate and acetylcarnitine, independent of the precursor. The TCA cycle rate was not linear with the citrate-to-acetate metabolite ratio, and could thus not be quantified using a ratiometric approach. The (13)C signal evolution of citrate, i.e. citrate formation was independent of the amount of injected acetate, while the (13)C signal evolution of acetylcarnitine revealed a dose dependency with the injected acetate. The (13)C labeling of citrate did not correlate to that of acetylcarnitine, leading to the hypothesis that acetylcarnitine formation is not an indication of mitochondrial TCA cycle activity in the heart. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperpolarized [1-(13)C]acetate is a metabolic probe independent of pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) activity. It allows the direct estimation of VTCA in vivo, which was shown to be neither dependent on the administered acetate dose nor on the (13)C labeling of acetylcarnitine. Dynamic (13)C MRS coupled to the injection of hyperpolarized [1-(13)C]acetate can enable the measurement of metabolic changes during impaired heart function.