Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Cell-specific effects of Nox2 on the acute and chronic response to myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) production is involved in the process of adverse cardiac remodeling and development of heart failure after myocardial infarction (MI). NADPH oxidase-2 (Nox2) is a major ROS source within the heart and its activity increases after MI. Furthermore, genetic deletion of Nox2 is protective against post-MI cardiac remodeling. Nox2 levels may increase both in cardiomyocytes and endothelial cells and recent studies indicate cell-specific effects of Nox2, but it is not known which of these cell types is important in post-MI remodeling. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have generated transgenic mouse models in which Nox2 expression is targeted either to cardiomyocytes (cardio-Nox2TG) or endothelial cells (endo-Nox2TG). We here studied the response of cardio-Nox2TG mice, endo-Nox2TG mice and matched wild-type littermates (WT) to MI induced by permanent left coronary artery ligation up to 4weeks. Initial infarct size assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cardiac dysfunction were similar among groups. Cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and interstitial fibrosis were augmented in cardio-Nox2TG compared to WT after MI and post-MI survival tended to be worse whereas endo-Nox2TG mice showed no significant difference compared to WT. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that cardiomyocyte rather than endothelial cell Nox2 may have the more important role in post-MI remodeling.

The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well.

Hybrid multi-objective optimization and hybridized self-organizing response surface method

Numerical optimization is a technique where a computer is used to explore design parameter combinations to find extremes in performance factors. In multi-objective optimization several performance factors can be optimized simultaneously. The solution to multi-objective optimization problems is not a single design, but a family of optimized designs referred to as the Pareto frontier. The Pareto frontier is a trade-off curve in the objective function space composed of solutions where performance in one objective function is traded for performance in others. A Multi-Objective Hybridized Optimizer (MOHO) was created for the purpose of solving multi-objective optimization problems by utilizing a set of constituent optimization algorithms. MOHO tracks the progress of the Pareto frontier approximation development and automatically switches amongst those constituent evolutionary optimization algorithms to speed the formation of an accurate Pareto frontier approximation. Aerodynamic shape optimization is one of the oldest applications of numerical optimization. MOHO was used to perform shape optimization on a 0.5-inch ballistic penetrator traveling at Mach number 2.5. Two objectives were simultaneously optimized: minimize aerodynamic drag and maximize penetrator volume. This problem was solved twice. The first time the problem was solved by using Modified Newton Impact Theory (MNIT) to determine the pressure drag on the penetrator. In the second solution, a Parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) solver that includes viscosity was used to evaluate the drag on the penetrator. The studies show the difference in the optimized penetrator shapes when viscosity is absent and present in the optimization. In modern optimization problems, objective function evaluations may require many hours on a computer cluster to perform these types of analysis. One solution is to create a response surface that models the behavior of the objective function. Once enough data about the behavior of the objective function has been collected, a response surface can be used to represent the actual objective function in the optimization process. The Hybrid Self-Organizing Response Surface Method (HYBSORSM) algorithm was developed and used to make response surfaces of objective functions. HYBSORSM was evaluated using a suite of 295 non-linear functions. These functions involve from 2 to 100 variables demonstrating robustness and accuracy of HYBSORSM.

Optimization models for selecting bus stops for accessibility improvements for people with disabilities

Bus stops are key links in the journeys of transit patrons with disabilities. Inaccessible bus stops prevent people with disabilities from using fixed-route bus services, thus limiting their mobility. The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990 prescribes the minimum requirements for bus stop accessibility by riders with disabilities. Due to limited budgets, transit agencies can only select a limited number of bus stop locations for ADA improvements annually. These locations should preferably be selected such that they maximize the overall benefits to patrons with disabilities. In addition, transit agencies may also choose to implement the universal design paradigm, which involves higher design standards than current ADA requirements and can provide amenities that are useful for all riders, like shelters and lighting. Many factors can affect the decision to improve a bus stop, including rider-based aspects like the number of riders with disabilities, total ridership, customer complaints, accidents, deployment costs, as well as locational aspects like the location of employment centers, schools, shopping areas, and so on. These interlacing factors make it difficult to identify optimum improvement locations without the aid of an optimization model. This dissertation proposes two integer programming models to help identify a priority list of bus stops for accessibility improvements. The first is a binary integer programming model designed to identify bus stops that need improvements to meet the minimum ADA requirements. The second involves a multi-objective nonlinear mixed integer programming model that attempts to achieve an optimal compromise among the two accessibility design standards. Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used extensively to both prepare the model input and examine the model output. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to combine all of the factors affecting the benefits to patrons with disabilities. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the reasonableness of the model outputs in response to changes in model constraints. Based on a case study using data from Broward County Transit (BCT) in Florida, the models were found to produce a list of bus stops that upon close examination were determined to be highly logical. Compared to traditional approaches using staff experience, requests from elected officials, customer complaints, etc., these optimization models offer a more objective and efficient platform on which to make bus stop improvement suggestions.

Developing performance measures of mangrove wetlands using simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and community dynamics

The goal of mangrove restoration projects should be to improve community structure and ecosystem function of degraded coastal landscapes. This requires the ability to forecast how mangrove structure and function will respond to prescribed changes in site conditions including hydrology, topography, and geophysical energies. There are global, regional, and local factors that can explain gradients of regulators (e.g., salinity, sulfides), resources (nutrients, light, water), and hydroperiod (frequency, duration of flooding) that collectively account for stressors that result in diverse patterns of mangrove properties across a variety of environmental settings. Simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics have been developed to forecast patterns in mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades. These models provide insight to mangrove response to specific restoration alternatives, testing causal mechanisms of system degradation. We propose that these models can also assist in selecting performance measures for monitoring programs that evaluate project effectiveness. This selection process in turn improves model development and calibration for forecasting mangrove response to restoration alternatives. Hydrologic performance measures include soil regulators, particularly soil salinity, surface topography of mangrove landscape, and hydroperiod, including both the frequency and duration of flooding. Estuarine performance measures should include salinity of the bay, tidal amplitude, and conditions of fresh water discharge (included in the salinity value). The most important performance measures from the mangrove biogeochemistry model should include soil resources (bulk density, total nitrogen, and phosphorus) and soil accretion. Mangrove ecology performance measures should include forest dimension analysis (transects and/or plots), sapling recruitment, leaf area index, and faunal relationships. Estuarine ecology performance measures should include the habitat function of mangroves, which can be evaluated with growth rate of key species, habitat suitability analysis, isotope abundance of indicator species, and bird census. The list of performance measures can be modified according to the model output that is used to define the scientific goals during the restoration planning process that reflect specific goals of the project.

Effect of arginine and oscillatory calcium ion (II) on vascular response mediated via nitric oxide signaling in normal and salt sensitive hypertensive rat mesenteric arterioles

Hypertension, a major risk factor in the cardiovascular system, is characterized by an increase in the arterial blood pressure. High dietary sodium is linked to multiple cardiovascular disorders including hypertension. Salt sensitivity, a measure of how the blood pressure responds to salt intake is observed in more than 50% of the hypertension cases. Nitric Oxide (NO), as an endogenous vasodilator serves many important biological roles in the cardiovascular physiology including blood pressure regulation. The physiological concentrations for NO bioactivity are reported to be in 0-500 nM range. Notably, the vascular response to NO is highly regulated within a small concentration spectrum. Hence, much uncertainty surrounds how NO modulates diverse signaling mechanisms to initiate vascular relaxation and alleviate hypertension. Regulating the availability of NO in the vasculature has demonstrated vasoprotective effects. In addition, modulating the NO release by different means has proved to restore endothelial function. In this study we addressed parameters that regulated NO release in the vasculature, in physiology and pathophysiology such as salt sensitive hypertension. We showed that, in the rat mesenteric arterioles, Ca2+ induced rapid relaxation (time constants 20.8 ± 2.2 sec) followed with a much slower constriction after subsequent removal of the stimulus (time constants 104.8 ± 10.0 sec). An interesting observation was that a fourfold increase in the Ca 2+ frequency improved the efficacy of arteriolar relaxation by 61.1%. Our results suggested that, Ca2+ frequency-dependent transient release of NO from the endothelium carried encoded information; which could be translated into different steady state vascular tone. Further, Agmatine, a metabolite of L-arginine, as a ligand, was observed to relax the mesenteric arterioles. These relaxations were NO-dependent and occurred via &agr;-2 receptor activity. The observed potency of agmatine (EC50, 138.7 ± 12.1 ± μM; n=22), was 40 fold higher than L-arginine itself (EC50, 18.3 ± 1.3 mM; n = 5). This suggested us to propose alternative parallel mechanism for L-arginine mediated vascular relaxation via arginine decarboxylase activity. In addition, the biomechanics of rat mesentery is important in regulation of vascular tone. We developed 2D finite element models that described the vascular mechanics of rat mesentery. With an inverse estimation approach, we identified the elasticity parameters characterizing alterations in normotensive and hypertensive Dahl rats. Our efforts were towards guiding current studies that optimized cardiovascular intervention and assisted in the development of new therapeutic strategies. These observations may have significant implications towards alternatives to present methods for NO delivery as a therapeutic target. Our work shall prove to be beneficial in assisting the delivery of NO in the vasculature thus minimizing the cardiovascular risk in handling abnormalities, such as hypertension.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-fortime substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Diatom-based Models for Inferring Hydrology and Periphyton Abundance in a Subtropical Karstic Wetland: Implications for Ecosystem-Scale Bioassessment

We developed diatom-based prediction models of hydrology and periphyton abundance to inform assessment tools for a hydrologically managed wetland. Because hydrology is an important driver of ecosystem change, hydrologic alterations by restoration efforts could modify biological responses, such as periphyton characteristics. In karstic wetlands, diatoms are particularly important components of mat-forming calcareous periphyton assemblages that both respond and contribute to the structural organization and function of the periphyton matrix. We examined the distribution of diatoms across the Florida Everglades landscape and found hydroperiod and periphyton biovolume were strongly correlated with assemblage composition. We present species optima and tolerances for hydroperiod and periphyton biovolume, for use in interpreting the directionality of change in these important variables. Predictions of these variables were mapped to visualize landscape-scale spatial patterns in a dominant driver of change in this ecosystem (hydroperiod) and an ecosystem-level response metric of hydrologic change (periphyton biovolume). Specific diatom assemblages inhabiting periphyton mats of differing abundance can be used to infer past conditions and inform management decisions based on how assemblages are changing. This study captures diatom responses to wide gradients of hydrology and periphyton characteristics to inform ecosystem-scale bioassessment efforts in a large wetland.

Integrated Carbon Budget Models for the Everglades Terrestrial-Coastal-Oceanic Gradient: Current Status and Needs for Inter-Site Comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines.

Functional genomic and molecular analyses of transcripts related to glycerol synthesis and trafficking in rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) using cold temperature-induced models of glycerol production

The rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) is an anadromous teleost that produces type II antifreeze protein (AFP) and accumulates modest urea and high glycerol levels in plasma and tissues as adaptive cryoprotectant mechanisms in sub-zero temperatures. It is known that glyceroneogenesis occurs in liver via a branch in glycolysis and gluconeogenesis and is activated by low temperature; however, the precise mechanisms of glycerol synthesis and trafficking in smelt remain to be elucidated. The objective of this thesis was to provide further insight using functional genomic techniques [e.g. suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) cDNA library construction, microarray analyses] and molecular analyses [e.g. cloning, quantitative reverse transcription - polymerase chain reaction (QPCR)]. Novel molecular mechanisms related to glyceroneogenesis were deciphered by comparing the transcript expression profiles of glycerol (cold temperature) and non-glycerol (warm temperature) accumulating hepatocytes (Chapter 2) and livers from intact smelt (Chapter 3). Briefly, glycerol synthesis can be initiated from both amino acids and carbohydrate; however carbohydrate appears to be the preferred source when it is readily available. In glycerol accumulating hepatocytes, levels of the hepatic glucose transporter (GLUT2) plummeted and transcript levels of a suite of genes (PEPCK, MDH2, AAT2, GDH and AQP9) associated with the mobilization of amino acids to fuel glycerol synthesis were all transiently higher. In contrast, in glycerol accumulating livers from intact smelt, glycerol synthesis was primarily fuelled by glycogen degradation with higher PGM and PFK (glycolysis) transcript levels. Whether initiated from amino acids or carbohydrate, there were common metabolic underpinnings. Increased PDK2 (an inhibitor of PDH) transcript levels would direct pyruvate derived from amino acids and / or DHAP derived from G6P to glycerol as opposed to oxidation via the citric acid cycle. Robust LIPL (triglyceride catabolism) transcript levels would provide free fatty acids that could be oxidized to fuel ATP synthesis. Increased cGPDH (glyceroneogenesis) transcript levels were not required for increased glycerol production, suggesting that regulation is more likely by post-translational modification. Finally, levels of a transcript potentially encoding glycerol-3-phosphatase, an enzyme not yet characterized in any vertebrate species, were transiently higher. These comparisons also led to the novel discoveries that increased G6Pase (glucose synthesis) and increased GS (glutamine synthesis) transcript levels were part of the low temperature response in smelt. Glucose may provide increased colligative protection against freezing; whereas glutamine could serve to store nitrogen released from amino acid catabolism in a non-toxic form and / or be used to synthesize urea via purine synthesis-uricolysis. Novel key aspects of cryoprotectant osmolyte (glycerol and urea) trafficking were elucidated by cloning and characterizing three aquaglyceroporin (GLP)-encoding genes from smelt at the gene and cDNA levels in Chapter 4. GLPs are integral membrane proteins that facilitate passive movement of water, glycerol and urea across cellular membranes. The highlight was the discovery that AQP10ba transcript levels always increase in posterior kidney only at low temperature. This AQP10b gene paralogue may have evolved to aid in the reabsorption of urea from the proximal tubule. This research has contributed significantly to a general understanding of the cold adaptation response in smelt, and more specifically to the development of a working scenario for the mechanisms involved in glycerol synthesis and trafficking in this species.

Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models, ice front positions and grounding line derived from remote sensing data at Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system, Antarctic Peninsula (1992-2014)

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest changing regions on Earth. The disintegration of the Larsen-A Ice Shelf in 1995 caused tributary glaciers to adjust by speeding up, surface lowering, and overall increased ice-mass discharge. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of these changes at the Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system by analyzing dense time series from various spaceborne and airborne Earth observation missions. Precollapse ice shelf conditions and subsequent adjustments through 2014 were covered. Our results show a response of the glacier system some months after the breakup, reaching maximum surface velocities at the glacier front of up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 and a subsequent decrease to ~1.5 m/d in 2014. Using a dense time series of interferometrically derived TanDEM-X digital elevation models and photogrammetric data, an exponential function was fitted for the decrease in surface elevation. Elevation changes in areas below 1000 m a.s.l. amounted to at least 130±15 m130±15 m between 1995 and 2014, with change rates of ~3.15 m/a between 2003 and 2008. Current change rates (2010-2014) are in the range of 1.7 m/a. Mass imbalances were computed with different scenarios of boundary conditions. The most plausible results amount to -40.7±3.9 Gt-40.7±3.9 Gt. The contribution to sea level rise was estimated to be 18.8±1.8 Gt18.8±1.8 Gt, corresponding to a 0.052±0.005 mm0.052±0.005 mm sea level equivalent, for the period 1995-2014. Our analysis and scenario considerations revealed that major uncertainties still exist due to insufficiently accurate ice-thickness information. The second largest uncertainty in the computations was the glacier surface mass balance, which is still poorly known. Our time series analysis facilitates an improved comparison with GRACE data and as input to modeling of glacio-isostatic uplift in this region. The study contributed to a better understanding of how glacier systems adjust to ice shelf disintegration.

Response of A. aurita ephyrae to three stressors: high-temperature, high-CO2 and low-oxygen

Global change is affecting marine ecosystems through a combination of different stressors such as warming, ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. Very little is known about the interactions among these factors, especially with respect to gelatinous zooplankton. Therefore, in this study we investigated the direct effects of pH, temperature and oxygen availability on the moon jellyfish Aurelia aurita, concentrating on the ephyral life stage. Starved one-day-old ephyrae were exposed to a range of pCO2 (400-4000 ppm) and three different dissolved oxygen levels (from saturated to hypoxic conditions), in two different temperatures (5 and 15 °C) for 7 days. Carbon content and swimming activity were analysed at the end of the incubation period, and mortality noted. General linearized models were fitted through the data, with the best fitting models including two- and three-way interactions between pCO2, temperature and oxygen concentration. The combined effect of the stressors was small but significant, with the clearest negative effect on growth caused by the combination of all three stressors present (high temperature, high CO2, low oxygen). We conclude that A. aurita ephyrae are robust and that they are not likely to suffer from these environmental stressors in a near future.

The optical response of nanostructured surfaces and the composite diffracted evanescent wave model

Investigations of the optical response of subwavelength-structure arrays milled into thin metal films have revealed surprising phenomena, including reports of unexpectedly high transmission of light. Many studies have interpreted the optical coupling to the surface in terms of the resonant excitation of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs), but other approaches involving composite diffraction of surface evanescent waves (CDEW) have also been proposed. Here we present a series of measurements on very simple one-dimensional subwavelength structures to test the key properties of the surface waves, and compare them to the CDEW and SPP models. We find that the optical response of the silver metal surface proceeds in two steps: a diffractive perturbation in the immediate vicinity (2–3 mu m) of the structure, followed by excitation of a persistent surface wave that propagates over tens of micrometres. The measured wavelength and phase of this persistent wave are significantly shifted from those expected for resonance excitation of a conventional SPP on a pure silver surface.