A behavioural car-following model that captures traffic oscillations

This paper presents a behavioral car-following model based on empirical trajectory data that is able to reproduce the spontaneous formation and ensuing propagation of stop-and-go waves in congested traffic. By analyzing individual drivers’ car-following behavior throughout oscillation cycles it is found that this behavior is consistent across drivers and can be captured by a simple model. The statistical analysis of the model’s parameters reveals that there is a strong correlation between driver behavior before and during the oscillation, and that this correlation should not be ignored if one is interested in microscopic output. If macroscopic outputs are of interest, simulation results indicate that an existing model with fewer parameters can be used instead. This is shown for traffic oscillations caused by rubbernecking as observed in the US 101 NGSIM dataset. The same experiment is used to establish the relationship between rubbernecking behavior and the period of oscillations.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Surface plasmon hybridization and exciton coupling

We derive a semianalytical model to describe the interaction of a single photon emitter and a collection of arbitrarily shaped metal nanoparticles. The theory treats the metal nanoparticles classically within the electrostatic eigenmode method, wherein the surface plasmon resonances of collections of nanoparticles are represented by the hybridization of the plasmon modes of the noninteracting particles. The single photon emitter is represented by a quantum mechanical two-level system that exhibits line broadening due to a finite spontaneous decay rate. Plasmon-emitter coupling is described by solving the resulting Bloch equations. We illustrate the theory by studying model systems consisting of a single emitter coupled to one, two, and three nanoparticles, and we also compare the predictions of our model to published experimental data. ©2012 American Physical Society.

Scenes, quarters and clusters : new experiments in the formation and governance of creative places in China

This thesis examines the formation and governance patterns of the social and spatial concentration of creative people and creative business in cities. It develops a typology for creative places, adding the terms 'scene' and 'quarter' to 'clusters', to fill in the literature gap of partial emphasis on the 'creative clusters' model as an organising mechanism for regional and urban policy. In this framework, a cluster is the gathering of firms with a core focus on economic benefits; a quarter is the urban milieu usually driven by a growth coalition consisting of local government, real estate agents and residential communities; and a scene is the spontaneous assembly of artists, performers and fans with distinct cultural forms. The framework is applied to China, specifically to Hangzhou – a second-tier city in central eastern China that is ambitious to become a 'national cultural and creative industries centre'. The thesis selects three cases – Ideal & Silian 166 Creative Industries Park, White-horse Lake Eco-creative City and LOFT49 Creative Industries Park – to represent scene, quarter and cluster respectively. Drawing on in-depth interviews with initiators, managers and creative professionals of these places, together with extensive documentary analysis, the thesis investigates the composition of actors, characteristics of the locality and the diversity of activities. The findings illustrate that, in China, planning and government intervention is the key to the governance of creative space; spontaneous development processes exist, but these need a more tolerant environment, a greater diversity of cultural forms and more time to develop. Moreover, the main business development model is still real estate based: this model needs to incorporate more mature business models and an enhanced IP protection system. The thesis makes a contribution to literature on economic and cultural geography, urban planning and creative industries theory. It advocates greater attention to self-management, collaborative governance mechanisms and business strategies for scenes, quarters and clusters. As intersections exist in the terms discussed, a mixed toolkit of the three models is required to advance the creative city discourse in China.

Secondary curve behavior in Lenke Type 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis after thoracoscopic selective anterior thoracic fusion

Study Design. Analysis of a case series of 24 Lenke 1C adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients receiving selective thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. Objective. To report the behaviour of the compensatory lumbar curve in a group of Lenke IC AIS patients following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction, and to compare the results of this study with previously published data. Summary of Background Data. Several prior studies have reported spontaneous lumbar curve correction for both anterior and posterior selective fusion in Lenke 1C/King-Moe II patients; however to our knowledge no previous studies have reported outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior correction for this curve type. Methods. All AIS patients with a curve classification of Lenke 1C and a minimum of 24 months follow-up were retrieved from a consecutive series of 190 AIS patients who underwent thoracoscopic anterior instrumented fusion. Cobb angles of the major curve, instrumented levels, compensatory lumbar curve, and T5-T12 kyphosis were recorded, as well as coronal spinal balance, T1 tilt angle and shoulder balance. All radiographic parameters were measured before surgery and at 2, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. Results. Twenty-four female patients with right thoracic curves had a mean thoracic Cobb angle of 53.0° before surgery, decreasing to 24.9° two years after surgery. The mean lumbar compensatory Cobb angle was 43.5° before surgery, spontaneously correcting to 25.4° two years after surgery, indicating balance between the thoracic and lumbar scoliotic curves. The lumbar correction achieved (41.8%) compares favourably to previous studies. Conclusions. Selective thoracoscopic anterior fusion allows spontaneous lumbar curve correction and achieves coronal balance of main thoracic and compensatory lumbar curves, good cosmesis and patient satisfaction. Correction and balance are maintained 24 months after surgery.

Barriers and facilitators to public bicycle scheme use : a qualitative approach

The purpose of this study was to explore barriers and facilitators to using CityCycle, a public bicycle share scheme in Brisbane, Australia. Focus groups were conducted with participants belonging to one of three categories. Group one consisted of infrequent and noncyclists (no bicycle riding over the past month), group two were regular bicycle riders (ridden a bicycle at least once in the past month) and group three was composed of CityCycle members. A thematic analytic method was used to analyse the data. Three main themes were found: Accessibility/spontaneity, safety and weather/topography. The lengthy sign-up process was thought to stifle the spontaneity typically thought to attract people to public bike share. Mandatory helmet legislation was thought to reduce spontaneous use. Safety was a major concern for all groups and this included a perceived lack of suitable bicycle infrastructure, as well as regular riders describing a negative attitude of some car drivers. Interestingly, CityCycle riders unanimously perceived car driver attitudes to improve when on CityCycle bicycles relative to riding on personal bicycles. Conclusions: In order to increase the popularity of the CityCycle scheme, the results of this study suggest that a more accessible, spontaneous sign-up process is required, 24/7 opening hours, and greater incentives to sign up new members and casual users, as seeing people using CityCycle appears critical to further take up.

From slum to suburbia : examining a spectrum of planned and unplanned urban morphology in humid sub-tropical regions of the world

The current rapid urban growth throughout the world manifests in various ways and historically cities have grown, similarly, alternately or simultaneously between planned extensions and organic informal settlements (Mumford, 1989). Within cities different urban morphological regions can reveal different contexts of economic growth and/or periods of dramatic social/technological change (Whitehand, 2001, 105). Morpho-typological study of alternate contexts can present alternative models and contribute to the present discourse which questions traditional paradigms of urban planning and design (Todes et al, 2010). In this study a series of cities are examined as a preliminary exploration into the urban morphology of cities in ‘humid subtropical’ climates. From an initial set of twenty, six cities were selected: Sao Paulo, Brazil; Jacksonville, USA; Maputo, Mozambique; Kanpur, India; Hong Kong, China; and Brisbane, Australia. The urban form was analysed from satellite imagery at a constant scale. Urban morphological regions (types) were identified as those demonstrating particular consistant characteristics of form (density, typology and pattern) different to their surroundings when examined at a constant scale. This analysis was correlated against existing data and literature discussing the proliferation of two types of urban development, ‘informal settlement’ (defined here as self-organised communities identifiable but not always synonymous with ‘slums’) and ‘suburbia’ (defined here as master planned communities of generally detached houses prevalent in western society) - the extreme ends of a hypothetical spectrum from ‘planned’ to ‘spontaneous’ urban development. Preliminary results show some cities contain a wide variety of urban form ranging from the highly organic ‘self-organised’ type to the highly planned ‘master planned community’ (in the case of Sao Paulo) while others tend to fall at one end of the planning spectrum or the other (more planned in the cases of Brisbane and Jacksonville; and both highly planned and highly organic in the case of Maputo). Further research will examine the social, economical and political drivers and controls which lead to this diversity or homogeneity of urban form and speculates on the role of self-organisation as a process for the adaptation of urban form.

Pregnancy losses in young Australian women : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined recognized pregnancy losses in a general population. Data from an Australian cohort study provide an opportunity to quantify this aspect of fecundity at a population level. METHOD: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 28-33 years in 2006 (n = 9,145) completed up to 4 mailed surveys over 10 years. Participants were categorized according to the recognized outcome of their pregnancies, including live birth, miscarriage/stillbirth, termination/ectopic, or no pregnancy. RESULTS: At age 18-23, more women reported terminations (7%) than miscarriages (4%). By 28-33 years, the cumulative frequency of miscarriage (15%) was as common as termination (16%). For women aged 28-33 years who had ever been pregnant (n = 5,343), pregnancy outcomes were as follows: birth only (50%); loss only (18%); and birth and loss (32%), of which half (16%) were birth and miscarriage. A comparison between first miscarriage and first birth (no miscarriage) showed that most first miscarriages occurred in women aged 18-23 years who also reported a first birth at the same survey (15%). Half (51%) of all first births and first miscarriages in women aged 18-19 ended in miscarriage. Early childbearers (<28 years) often had miscarriages around the same time period as their first live birth, suggesting proactive family formation. Delayed childbearers (32-33 years) had more first births than first miscarriages. CONCLUSION: Recognized pregnancy losses are an important measure of fecundity in the general population because they indicate successful conception and maintenance of pregnancy to varying reproductive endpoints.

Infertility, medical advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation: a population perspective from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with infertility, seeking advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation (IVF) among a general population of women. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health aged 28-33 years in 2006 had completed up to four mailed surveys over 10 years (n=9,145). Parsimonious multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic, biological (including reproductive histories), and behavioural factors associated with infertility, advice and hormonal/IVF treatment. RESULTS: For women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5,936), 17% reported infertility. Among women with infertility (n=1031), 72% (n=728) sought advice but only 50% (n=356) used hormonal/IVF treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when: they had never been pregnant (OR=7.2, 95% CI 5.6-9.1) or had a history of miscarriage (OR range=1.5-4.0) than those who had given birth (and never had a miscarriage or termination). CONCLUSION: Only one-third of women with infertility used hormonal and/or IVF treatment. Women with PCOS or endometriosis were the most proactive in having sought advice and used hormonal/IVF treatment. IMPLICATIONS: Raised awareness of age-related declining fertility is important for partnered women aged approximately 30 years to encourage pregnancy during their prime reproductive years and reduce the risk of infertility.

Scenes, quarters and clusters: The formation and governance of creative places in urban China

This paper presents a PhD program examining the formation and governance patterns of the social and spatial concentration of creative people and creative businesses in cities. It develops a typology for creative places, adding the terms ‘scene’ and ‘quarter’ to ‘clusters’, to fill in the literature gap of partial emphasis on the ‘creative clusters’ model as an organising mechanism for regional and urban policy. The framework is then applied to China, specifically to Hangzhou, a second-tier city in central eastern China that is ambitious to become a ‘national cultural and creative industries centre’. Drawing on in-depth interviews with initiators, managers and creative professionals from three cases selected respectively for scene, quarter and cluster, together with extensive documentary analysis, the paper investigates the composition of actors, characteristics of the locality and the diversity of activities of the three places. The findings demonstrate a convergence of the three terms. Furthermore, in China, planning and government intervention is the key to the governance of creative places; spontaneous development processes exist, but these need a more tolerant environment, a greater diversity of cultural forms and more time to develop. Moreover, the main business development model is still real estate based: this model needs to incorporate more mature business models and an enhanced IP protection system. Finally, the business strategies need to be combined with a self-management model for the creative class, and a collaborative governance mechanism with other stakeholders such as government, real estate developers and education providers.

Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15) slows cancer development but increases metastases in TRAMP prostate cancer prone mice

Macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1/GDF15), a divergent member of the TGF-β superfamily, is over-expressed by many common cancers including those of the prostate (PCa) and its expression is linked to cancer outcome. We have evaluated the effect of MIC-1/GDF15 overexpression on PCa development and spread in the TRAMP transgenic model of spontaneous prostate cancer. TRAMP mice were crossed with MIC-1/GDF15 overexpressing mice (MIC-1fms) to produce syngeneic TRAMPfmsmic-1 mice. Survival rate, prostate tumor size, histopathological grades and extent of distant organ metastases were compared. Metastasis of TC1-T5, an androgen independent TRAMP cell line that lacks MIC-1/GDF15 expression, was compared by injecting intravenously into MIC-1fms and syngeneic C57BL/6 mice. Whilst TRAMPfmsmic-1 survived on average 7.4 weeks longer, had significantly smaller genitourinary (GU) tumors and lower PCa histopathological grades than TRAMP mice, more of these mice developed distant organ metastases. Additionally, a higher number of TC1-T5 lung tumor colonies were observed in MIC-1fms mice than syngeneic WT C57BL/6 mice. Our studies strongly suggest that MIC-1/GDF15 has complex actions on tumor behavior: it limits local tumor growth but may with advancing disease, promote metastases. As MIC-1/GDF15 is induced by all cancer treatments and metastasis is the major cause of cancer treatment failure and cancer deaths, these results, if applicable to humans, may have a direct impact on patient care.

Improvising a future in the performing arts : a new strategy to help performance studies students successfully shift between academic culture, professional culture, industry and career?

If there is one thing performance studies graduates should be good at, it is improvising – play and improvisation are central to the contemporary and cultural performance practices we teach and the methods by which we teach them. Objective, offer, acceptance, advancing, reversing, character, status, manipulation, impression management, relationship management – whether we know them from Keith Johnson’s theatre theories or Erving Goffman’s theatre theories, the processes by which we play out a story, scenario or social situation to our own benefit are familiar. We understand that identity, action, interaction and its personal, aesthetic, professional or political outcomes are unpredictable, and that we need to adapt to changeable and uncertain circumstances to achieve our aims. Intriguingly, though, in a Higher Education environment that increasingly emphasises employability, skills in play, improvisation and self-performance are never cited as critical graduate attributes. Is the ability to play, improve and produce spontaneous new self-performances learned in the academy worth articulating into an ability to play, improvise and product spontaneous new self-performances after graduates leave the academy and move into the role of a performing arts professional in industry? A study of the career paths of our performance studies graduates over the past decade suggests that addressing the challenges they face in moving between academic culture, professional culture, industry and career in terms of improvisation and play principles may be very productive. In articles on performing arts careers, graduates are typically advised to find a market for their work, and develop career self-management, management and marketing skills, together with an ability to find, make and maintain relationships and opportunities for themselves. Transitioning to career is cast as a challenging process, requiring these skills, because performing arts careers do not offer the security, status and stability of other careers. Our data confirms this. In our study, though, we found that strategies commonly used to build the resilience, self-reliance and persistence graduates require – talking about portfolio careers, parallel careers, and portable, transferable or translatable skills, for example – can engender panic as easily as they engender confidence. In this paper, I consider what happens when we re-articulate some of the skills scholars and industry stakeholders argue are critical in allowing graduates to shift successfully from academy to industry in terms of skills like improvisation, play and self-performance that are already familiar, meaningful and much-practiced amongst performance studies graduates.

Everyday preschool talk about Christchurch earthquakes

This article investigates young children’s interactions with their peers and teachers following the events of the Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand on September 2010 and February 2011. Drawing on conversation analysis and psychological literature, we focus on one outdoor excursion to visit a broken water pipe caused by the earthquake to show how the teacher and children mutually accomplished trouble telling and storying. A particular feature of talk was the use of pivotal utterances to transition from talking about the damaged environment, to talking about reflections of actual earthquake events. This article shows how teachers initiate and prompt children’s informal and spontaneous story telling as an interactional resource for discussing traumatic events.

FOXC2 expression links epithelial-mesenchymal transition and stem cell properties in breast cancer

Resistance to chemotherapy and metastases are the major causes of breast cancer-related mortality. Moreover, cancer stem cells (CSC) play critical roles in cancer progression and treatment resistance. Previously, it was found that CSC-like cells can be generated by aberrant activation of epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT), thereby making anti-EMT strategies a novel therapeutic option for treatment of aggressive breast cancers. Here, we report that the transcription factor FOXC2 induced in response to multiple EMT signaling pathways as well as elevated in stem cell-enriched factions is a critical determinant of mesenchymal and stem cell properties, in cells induced to undergo EMT- and CSC-enriched breast cancer cell lines. More specifically, attenuation of FOXC2 expression using lentiviral short hairpin RNA led to inhibition of the mesenchymal phenotype and associated invasive and stem cell properties, which included reduced mammosphere-forming ability and tumor initiation. Whereas, overexpression of FOXC2 was sufficient to induce CSC properties and spontaneous metastasis in transformed human mammary epithelial cells. Furthermore, a FOXC2-induced gene expression signature was enriched in the claudin-low/basal B breast tumor subtype that contains EMT and CSC features. Having identified PDGFR-β to be regulated by FOXC2, we show that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved PDGFR inhibitor, sunitinib, targets FOXC2-expressing tumor cells leading to reduced CSC and metastatic properties. Thus, FOXC2 or its associated gene expression program may provide an effective target for anti-EMT-based therapies for the treatment of claudin-low/basal B breast tumors or other EMT-/CSC-enriched tumors.

So what do Design students really think? Exploring perceptions of Learning Landscapes

This paper investigates learning environments from the view of the key users - students. Recent literature on designing Learning Landscapes indicates a near absence of the student voice, assuming that the majority of students are either uninterested or unable to express what they want or need, in a learning environment. The focus of this research is to reveal Architecture and Fashion Design students’ perceptions of their learning environments. Furthermore, this study questions the appropriateness of usual design of learning spaces for Design students, or if the environment needs to be specifically catered for the learning of different disciplines of Design, such as Architecture and Fashion Design. Senior Architecture and Fashion Design students were invited to participate in a qualitative mixed method study, including investigation into existing literature, questionnaires, focus groups and spontaneous participatory research. Through the analysis of data it was found that students’ perceptions validate discipline specific learning environments and contribute towards the development of a framework for the design of future Learning Landscapes, for Design education.