El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook December 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g. droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g. health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015 and SON 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Dec 2015 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of JF 2016 and MAM 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and Dec 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 4 modeling centres for Jan 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of Feb 2016, MAM 2016 and Jun 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJ 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Feb 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of MAM 2016 and JJ 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Soda-Treated Sisal/Polypropylene Composites

Treated sisal fibers were used as reinforcement of polypropylene (PP) composites, with maleic anhydride-grafted PP (MAPP) as coupling agent. The composites were made by melting processing of PP with the fiber in a heated roller followed by multiple extrusions in a single-screw extruder. Injection molded specimens were produced for the characterization of the material. In order to improve the adhesion between fiber and matrix and to eliminate odorous substances, sisal fibers were treated with boiling water and with NaOH solutions at 3 and 10 wt.%. The mechanical properties of the composites were assessed by tensile, bend and impact tests. Additionally, the morphology of the composites and the adhesion at he fiber-matrix interface were analyzed by SEM. The fiber treatment led to very light and odorless materials, with yields of 95, 74 and 62 wt.% for treatments with hot water, 3 and 10 wt.% soda solution respectively. Fiber treatment caused an appreciable change in fiber characteristics, yet the mechanical properties under tensile and flexural tests were not influenced by that treatment. Only the impact strength increased in the composites with alkali-treated sisal fibers.

Estudo da viabilidade técnica para a Bolívia de painéis de gesso reforçados com fibra de vidro para paredes internas não portantes

Na construção civil, nos países em desenvolvimento como a Bolívia, continua-se usando técnicas e materiais na execução de paredes, similar a décadas passadas. Os painéis de gesso reforçados com fibra de vidro são uma alternativa de simplificação e agilização na execução das paredes internas não portantes. A presente dissertação objetiva mostrar a viabilidade técnica e econômica dos painéis para paredes internas, na Bolívia; para tanto realizou-se uma avaliação dos recursos disponíveis (gesso), com relação às reservas, produção e custos. A técnica adotada na produção dos painéis é a de pré-mistura, que permite a moldagem dos painéis manual ou mecanicamente com equipamentos simples e de baixo custo. O estudo do compósito de gesso reforçado com fibra de vidro (GRG) foi realizado com gesso brasileiro e com gesso boliviano, verificando-se o seu comportamento mecânico com diferentes teores de fibra de vidro. Verificou-se aumento da resistência a tração na flexão e diminuição da resistência a compressão com o aumento do teor de fibra de vidro. A avaliação do comportamento mecânico dos painéis foi feita através dos ensaios de impacto (corpo mole e corpo duro). Nos ensaios de corpo mole, verificou-se aumento da resistência com o aumento do teor de fibra de vidro. Os teores de 0,75% e 1,5% se mostraram suficientes para que os painéis de GRG satisfaçam os requisitos de desempenho para divisórias internas respectivamente para o gesso brasileiro e boliviano. O comportamento dos painéis nos ensaios de impacto de corpo duro foi satisfatório, tanto para painéis com fibra como para painéis sem fibra de vidro. No estudo preliminar de custos, verificou-se uma redução em torno de 36% para os painéis de GRG em relação às paredes intemas tradicionalmente usadas na Bolívia.

Impact investing: portfolio company selection in Latin America

O documento analisa como investidores de impacto selecionar suas companhias de portfólio na América Latina e que critérios são avaliados no processo. Uma vez que praticamente ne-nhuma pesquisa sobre isso foi con conduzidos até à data, e desde que o modelo de processo de seleção aplicados em capital de risco não é dissemelhantes, foi adotado essa abordagem. Os resultados revelam que os investidores de impacto originar e avaliar negócios de uma for-ma semelhante a capitalistas de risco , mas que alguns critérios são ajustados e outros adicio-nados a fim de refletir o duplo objectivo de investimento de impacto. Os investidores de im-pacto podem originar ofertas passivamente, mas eles preferem procurar empreendimentos sociais de forma proativa: contatos pessoais, o acesso a redes e eventos do setor são cruciais neste contexto. Impacto Investidores considerando um investimento em pesquisa para a Amé-rica Latina inteira, empreendedores sociais honestos e confiáveis comprometidos com impacto social; empreendimentos sociais elegíveis devem ser rentáveis com potencial de escalabilidade; o produto deve ter um impacto social, ou seja, criar valor para o consumidor individual e para a comunidade em geral; tamanho do mercado e crescimento do mercado são fatores externos cruciais; e as características de negócio dependem de atitude de risco do investidor e as perspectivas de uma saída bem sucedida, tanto em termos financeiros e sociais. Os investi-dores de impacto também estão dispostos a dar apoio não financeiro antes de um investimen-to, se um empreendimento social, mostra alto potencial para atingir o seu objectivo dual.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Color measurement using a smartphone applied to Madeira wines

Computer vision is a field that uses techniques to acquire, process, analyze and understand images from the real world in order to produce numeric or symbolic information in the form of decisions [1]. This project aims to use computer vision to prepare an app to analyze a Madeira Wine and characterize it (identify its variety) by its color. Dry or sweet wines, young or old wines have a specific color. It uses techniques to compare histograms in order to analyze the images taken from a test sample inside a special container designed for this purpose. The color analysis from a wine sample using an image captured by a smartphone can be difficult. Many factors affect the captured image such as, light conditions, the background of the sample container due to the many positions the photo can be taken (different to capture facing a white wall or facing the floor for example). Using new technologies such as 3D printing it was possible to create a prototype that aims to control the effect of those external factors on the captured image. The results for this experiment are good indicators for future works. Although it’s necessary to do more tests, the first tests had a success rate of 80% to 90% of correct results. This report documents the development of this project and all the techniques and steps required to execute the tests.

Desevolvimento de nanocompósitos de poli(metacrilato de metila)/argila processados por mistura no estado fundido

Poly(methyl methacrylate)/clay nanocomposites were prepared by melt mixing using a montmorillonite-rich clay (MMT). The clay in natura was treated with acrylic acid to facilitate the dispersion in the polymer matrix. A masterbatch of PMMA/clay was prepared and combined with the pure PMMA and then subjected to extrusion process using singlescrew and twin-screw extruders followed by injection. Nanocomposites were processed with clay contents of 1, 3, 5 and 8 wt.%. The effect of shear processing on the morphology of the nanocomposites was evaluated by XRD, SEM and TEM. Thermal and mechanical properties of the nanocomposites were investigated through TGA, DSC, HDT, VICAT, tensile and impact tests, to evaluate the effect of the addition of clay to the PMMA matrix. Flammability tests were also conducted to investigate the effect of the addition of clay on the flame retardation properties. SEM images of the nanocomposites indicated the presence of clay agglomerates, which resulted in the reduction of properties such as thermal stability, mechanical strength and impact resistance, and increased the rate of burning for materials processed by both extrusion routes

Construction and demolition waste as a source of PVC for recycling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uma análise sociodemográfica dos cuidadores formais de idosos institucionalizados no município de Natal/RN, 2012

The aging population and individual have been the subject of a multitude of studies nowadays. This is probably due to the impact of this phenomenon in various sectors of society, like social security, social assistance and public health. The process of aging of the individual imply the demand for specific services, considering the limitations and vulnerabilities of the individual at that stage of life cycle. The growth of the elderly contingent in the last decades raises challenges for policymakers, the family and also for the society at large. In this scenario, long-stay institutions for the elderly (LSIEs) appear as an option to aid and support the elderly and their family, assisting in all or part in the activities of daily living and self-care. Inside these LSIEs we find the professional responsible for the direct care of the elderly, the formal caregiver. In this context, this dissertation presents two main objectives: an analysis of the phenomenon of population aging in a given brazilian municipality Natal / RN, based on the Demographic Censuses of 2000 e 2010; and a social, demographic and economic characterization of the Formal caregiver for the institutionalized elderly in the municipality, evaluating aspects of his quality of life and also analyzing the institutions where they are inserted. Furthermore, we intend to identify demographic, socioeconomic and quality of life factors that are correlated with caregivers quitting the job. The data used in the second part of this work comes from the research project named Long-Stay Institutions for Elderly: abandonment or a family need? . This survey interviewed 92 caregivers in eleven LSIEs in Natal/RN. In the data treatment logistic regressions, cluster analysis and statistical tests were used. The survey revealed that aging in Natal is more pronounced in the older, more traditional districts: Petrópolis, Lagoa Seca and Tirol. It also allowed a broad characterization of the formal caregivers in LSIEs. Most of these professionals are female. The educational level is predominantly complete high school and more. Most caregivers reported being married or in union, or have ever been in a union. Family monthly income is under three times the minimum wage. The mean age is of 37.4 years. The mean time of work as a caregiver was 5.93 years. The associations showed that being woman, not being single, having caregiving training and physical limitations (regarding quality of life) are related to wanting to quit the caregiving job. As for the characterization of the LSIEs, it was found that the philanthropic ones are older and have most (62.5%) of the institutionalized elderly. The institutions managers gave social interaction and affinity with the elderly as the main criteria with which to evaluate and hire caregivers. It is intended with this study to contribute to improving the quality of life of the elderly and their caregiver, providing information on aspects of institutionalization of elderly both in the philanthropic and particular institutions, in Natal/RN; this dissertation may also be used as a starting point for later works

Aproveitamento de resíduo de caulim em cerâmica branca

The world market of Kaolin has been growing as new investments for better quality of materials have been applied. This market produces amounts of dross that are put in the environment in a wrong way, causing damages to it. Trying to reduce these damages, researches have been done in an attempt to use kaolin dross in ceramic. The disposal of kaolin dross in the environment by the industries of the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraiba have great impact in society. Usually this dross is disposed clandestinely in places like roads, river banks and lands of small cities. The present work shows the characteristics of the kaolin produced by the mining company in Junco do Seridó, Paraiba state, western Seridó, 300 km from Natal, in the border of both states. After that, researches were done to study its physical and the chemistry characteristics, trying to see if it can be used in white ceramic. The samples got were bolted in fabric of 325# . The technological characteristics tried to use it as a product in white ceramic. For that, it was made a haracterization of the subject matter through enlargement analyses, ATG and ATD, elaborating three formulations that were burned in four different temperatures, 1175, 1200, 1250 and 1300 degrees centigrade up to 30 minutes. After the burning, the subjects were submitted to water absorbing tests, linear retreating, apparent porosity, apparent specific mass, resistance to flexibility and MEV. For one of the mixtures it was obtained demanded properties for a semi porous material