Supporting the needs of public health decision-makers and review authors in the UK

Introduction Systematic reviews, through the synthesis of multiple primary research studies, can be powerful tools in enabling evidence-informed public health policy debate, development and action. In seeking to optimize the utility of these reviews, it is important to understand the needs of those using them. Previous work has emphasized that researchers should adopt methods that are appropriate to the problems that public health decision-makers are grappling with, as well as to the policy context in which they operate.1,2 Meeting these demands poses significant methodological challenges for review authors and prompts a reconsideration of the resources, training and support structures available to facilitate the efficient and timely production of useful, comprehensive reviews. The Cochrane Public Health Group (CPHG) was formed in 2008 to support reviews of complex, upstream public health topics. The majority of CPHG authors are from the UK, which has historically been at the forefront of efforts to promote the production and use of systematic reviews of research relevant to public health decision-makers. The UK therefore provides a suitably mature national context in which to examine (i) the current and future demands of decision-makers to increase the use, value and impact of evidence syntheses; (ii) the implications this has for the scope and methods of reviews and (iii) the required action to build and support capacity to conduct such reviews.

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Real-time and interactive attacks on DNP3 critical infrastructure using Scapy

The Distributed Network Protocol v3.0 (DNP3) is one of the most widely used protocols, to control national infrastructure. Widely used interactive packet manipulation tools, such as Scapy, have not yet been augmented to parse and create DNP3 frames (Biondi 2014). In this paper we extend Scapy to include DNP3, thus allowing us to perform attacks on DNP3 in real-time. Our contribution builds on East et al. (2009), who proposed a range of possible attacks on DNP3. We implement several of these attacks to validate our DNP3 extension to Scapy, then executed the attacks on real world equipment. We present our results, showing that many of these theoretical attacks would be unsuccessful in an Ethernet-based network.

Recreational needs and service performance expectations

The theoretical contribution of this study lies with its focus on subjective experiencing, that is, the emotional convergence between feeling states, and perceptions of servicescapes and holiday activities. An empirical study models the impact of recreational needs on the perceived importance of destination attributes and intentions to participate in activities. A sample of prospective tourists was asked to indicate how important they considered servicescape elements to be in their general holiday planning. They were also asked to report on their emotional state (orientation) as a proxy for their needs for recreation, and to state their intention and likely involvement with holiday activities. Results suggest that those with high recreational needs (self-reflexive and inward-looking) regard elements of tourism servicescapes as significantly more important than those without (who are outward-looking and energetic), as well as show significant variations in their inclinations to be active and explorative at destinations. Rather, those with higher recreational needs as measured by combinations of lack of energy, self-confidence, and physiological well-being look for creature comfort, coziness, and familiarity, in other words, for things they already know and have experienced before. Subjective experiencing and service performance evaluations are thereby suggested to be influenced by emotional states. These states may also impact tourists' recognition of destination uniqueness as a major component of a destination's competitive advantage that cannot easily be copied. As a consequence, it may be worth reconsidering the role of recreation in tourism service design. Turning an inwardlooking focus bent on recreation to an outward-looking one interested in discovery would enable more tourists to more fully experience the destination before they leave.

The challenges of meeting the needs of children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) during out of hospital interactoins with Paramedics

This poster presents the results of a critical review of the literature on the intersection between paramedic practice with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and previews the clinical and communication challenges likely to be experienced with these patients. Paramedics in Australia provide 24/7 out-of-hospital care to the community. Although their core business is to provide emergency care, paramedics also provide care for vulnerable people as a consequence of the social, economic or domestic milieu. Little is known about the frequency of use of emergency out-of-hospital services by children with ASD and their families. Similarly, little is known about the attitudes and perceptions of paramedics to children with ASD and their emergency health care. However, individuals with ASD are likely to require paramedic services at some point across the life span and may be more frequent users of health services as a consequence of the challenges they face. The high rate of co-morbidities of people diagnosed with ASD is reported and includes seizure disorders, gastro-intestinal disorders, metabolic disorders, hormonal dysfunction, ear, nose and throat infections, hearing impairment, hypertension, allergies/anaphylaxis, immune disorders, migraine and diabetes, gross/fine motor skill dysfunction, premature birth, birth defects, obesity and mental illness. Individuals with ASD may frequently experience concurrent communication, behaviour and sensory challenges. Consequently, Paramedics can encounter difficulties gathering important patient information which may compromise sensitive care. These interactions occur often in high pressure and emotionally challenging environments, which add to the difficulties in communicating the treatment and transport needs of this population.

SBS’s First Contact is the real ‘festering sore’ of the nation

The SBS/Blackfella Films production First Contact – that takes six non-Indigenous people and immerses them into Aboriginal Australia for the first time – captured the nation’s attention this week amassing a television audience nearing 1 million viewers, while the program’s Twitter hashtag #FirstContactSBS trended worldwide. Over the three episodes, we saw the participants get their “first contact” with Aboriginal Australia as they were welcomed into the homes of Aboriginal people in the city and in the bush...

Real-time assessment of GNSS observation noise with single receivers

Stochastic modelling is critical in GNSS data processing. Currently, GNSS data processing commonly relies on the empirical stochastic model which may not reflect the actual data quality or noise characteristics. This paper examines the real-time GNSS observation noise estimation methods enabling to determine the observation variance from single receiver data stream. The methods involve three steps: forming linear combination, handling the ionosphere and ambiguity bias and variance estimation. Two distinguished ways are applied to overcome the ionosphere and ambiguity biases, known as the time differenced method and polynomial prediction method respectively. The real time variance estimation methods are compared with the zero-baseline and short-baseline methods. The proposed method only requires single receiver observation, thus applicable to both differenced and un-differenced data processing modes. However, the methods may be subject to the normal ionosphere conditions and low autocorrelation GNSS receivers. Experimental results also indicate the proposed method can result on more realistic parameter precision.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: Progress, uncertainties and research needs

Background Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. Objectives We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Discussion Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Conclusions Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.

Moral vitalism: Seeing good and evil as real, agentic forces

Moral vitalism refers to a tendency to view good and evil as actual forces that can influence people and events. We introduce a scale designed to assess the belief in moral vitalism. High scorers on the scale endorse items such as “There are underlying forces of good and evil in this world”. After establishing the reliability and criterion validity of the scale (Studies 1, 2a, 2b), we examined the predictive validity of the moral vitalism scale, showing that “moral vitalists” worry about being possessed by evil (Study 3), being contaminated through contact with evil people (Study 4), and forfeiting their own mental purity (Study 5). We discuss the nature of moral vitalism and the implications of the construct for understanding the role of metaphysical lay theories about the nature of good and evil in moral reasoning.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

Psychometric properties of an Australian supportive care needs assessment tool for Indigenous patients with cancer

BACKGROUND There are significant disparities in cancer outcomes between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Identifying the unmet supportive care needs of Indigenous Australians with cancer is imperative to improve their cancer care. The purpose of this study was to test the psychometric properties of a supportive care needs assessment tool for Indigenous Australian (SCNAT-IP) cancer patients. METHODS The SCNAT-IP was administered to 248 Indigenous Australians diagnosed with a range of cancer types and stages, and received treatment in one of four Queensland hospitals. All 39 items were assessed for ceiling and floor effects and analysed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine construct validity. Identified factors were assessed for internal consistency and convergent validity to validated psychosocial tools. RESULTS EFA revealed a four-factor structure (physical and psychological, hospital care, information and communication, and practical and cultural needs) explaining 51% of the variance. Internal consistency of four subscales was good, with Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficients ranging from 0.70-0.89. Convergent validity was supported by significant correlations between the SCNAT-IP with the Distress Thermometer (r=0.60, p<0.001), and The Cancer Worry Chart (r=0.58, p<0.001) and a moderately strong negative correlation with Assessment of Quality of Life questionnaire (r=-0.56, p<0.001). CONCLUSION These data provide initial support for the SCNAT-IP a measure of multiple supportive care needs domains specific to Indigenous Australian cancer patients undergoing treatment.