Analyses of sublittoral macrobenthic community change in a marine nature reserve using similarity profiles (SIMPROF).

Sublittoral macrobenthic communities in the Skomer Marine Nature Reserve (SMNR), Pembrokeshire, Wales, were sampled at 10 stations in 1993, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2009 using a Day grab and a 0.5 mm mesh. The time series is analysed using Similarities Profiles (SIMPROF) tests and associated methods. Q-mode analysis using clustering with Type 1 SIMPROF addresses multivariate structure among samples, showing that there is clear structure associated with differences among years. Inverse (r-mode) analysis using Type 2 SIMPROF decisively rejects a hypothesis that species are not associated with each other. Clustering of the variables (species) with Type 3 SIMPROF identifies groups of species which covary coherently through the time-series. The time-series is characterised by a dramatic decline in abundances and diversity between the 1993 and 1996 surveys. By 1998 there had been a shift in community composition from the 1993 situation, with different species dominating. Communities had recovered in terms of abundance and species richness, but different species dominated the community. No single factor could be identified which unequivocally explained the dramatic changes observed in the SMNR. Possible causes were the effects of dispersed oil and dispersants from the Sea Empress oil spill in February 1996 and the cessation of dredge-spoil disposal off St Anne’s Head in 1995, but the most likely cause was severe weather. With many species, and a demonstrable recovery from an impact, communities within the SMNR appear to be diverse and resilient. If attributable to natural storms, the changes observed here indicate that natural variability may be much more important than is generally taken into account in the design of monitoring programmes.

Global and local contributions to the optical specification of time to contact: Observer sensitivity to composite tau

First-order time remaining until a moving observer will pass an environmental element is optically specified in two different ways. The specification provided by global tau (based on the pattern of change of angular bearing) requires that the element is stationary and that the direction of motion is accurately detected, whereas the specification provided by composite tau (based on the patterns of change of optical size and optical distance) does not require either of these. We obtained converging evidence,for our hypothesis. that observers are sensitive to composite tau in four experiments involving, relative judgments of, time to, passage with forced-choice methodology. Discrimination performance was enhanced in the presence of a local expansion component, while being unaffected when the detection of the direction of heading was impaired. Observers relied on the information carried in composite tau rather than on the information carried in its constituent components. Finally, performance was similar under conditions of observer motion and conditions of object motion. Because composite tau specifies first-order time remaining for a large number of situations, the different ways in which it may be detected are discussed.

Exploiting a priori time constant ratio information in difference equation two-thermocouple sensor characterisation

The characterization of thermocouple sensors for temperature measurement in varying-flow environments is a challenging problem. Recently, the authors introduced novel difference-equation-based algorithms that allow in situ characterization of temperature measurement probes consisting of two-thermocouple sensors with differing time constants. In particular, a linear least squares (LS) lambda formulation of the characterization problem, which yields unbiased estimates when identified using generalized total LS, was introduced. These algorithms assume that time constants do not change during operation and are, therefore, appropriate for temperature measurement in homogenous constant-velocity liquid or gas flows. This paper develops an alternative ß-formulation of the characterization problem that has the major advantage of allowing exploitation of a priori knowledge of the ratio of the sensor time constants, thereby facilitating the implementation of computationally efficient algorithms that are less sensitive to measurement noise. A number of variants of the ß-formulation are developed, and appropriate unbiased estimators are identified. Monte Carlo simulation results are used to support the analysis.

The impact of curricular change on medical students' knowledge of anatomy

Background: In recent years, following the publication of Tomorrow's Doctors, the undergraduate medical curriculum in most UK medical schools has undergone major revision. This has resulted in a significant reduction in the time allocated to the teaching of the basic medical sciences, including anatomy. However, it is not clear what impact these changes have had on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy. Aim: This study aimed to assess the impact of these curricular changes on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy. Setting: Medical student intakes for 1995-98 at the Queen's University of Belfast, UK. Methods: The students were invited to complete a simple examination paper testing their knowledge of surface anatomy. Results from the student intake of 1995, which undertook a traditional, 'old' curriculum, were compared with those from the student intakes of 1996-98, which undertook a new, 'systems-based' curriculum. To enhance linear response and enable the use of linear models for analysis, all data were adjusted using probit transformations of the proportion (percentage) of correct answers for each item and each year group. Results: The student intake of 1995 (old curriculum) were more likely to score higher than the students who undertook the new, systems-based curriculum. Conclusion: The introduction of the new, systems-based course has had a negative impact on medical students' knowledge of surface anatomy.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

Analysing spatio-temporal change by use of national historical Geographical Information Systems: Population change during and after the Great Irish Famine

Several countries have made large investments in building historical Geographical Information Systems (GIS) databases containing census and other quantitative statistics over long periods of time. Making good use of these databases requires approaches that explore spatial and temporal change.

Organisational controls, typologies and time scales of paraglacial gravel-dominated coastal systems

The fundamental controls on the initiation and development of gravel-dominated deposits (beaches and barriers) on paraglacial coasts are particle size and shape, sediment supply, storm wave activity (primarily runup), relative sea-level (RSL) change, and terrestrial basement structure (primarily as it affects accommodation space). This paper examines the stochastic basis for barrier organisation as shown by variation in gravel barrier architecture. We recognise punctuated self-organisation of barrier development that is disrupted by short phases of barrier instability. The latter results from positive feedback causing barrier breakdown when sediment supply is exhausted. We examine published typologies for gravel barriers and advocate a consolidated perspective using rate of RSL change and sediment supply. We also consider the temporal variation in controls on barrier development. These are examined in terms of a simple behavioural model (BARCH) for prograding gravel barrier architecture and its sensitivity to such controls. The nature of macroscale (102–103 years) gravel barrier development, including inherited characteristics that influence barrier genesis, as well as forcing from changing RSL, sediment supply, headland control and barrier inertia, is examined in the context of long-surviving barriers along the southern England coastline.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.

Long-term hydroclimatic change and interannual variability in water sources, Apex River (Iqaluit), Baffin Island, Nunavut

The eastern Canadian Arctic is home to Canada’s largest Indigenous population, which depends on local freshwater sources for drinking water. However, small watersheds have rarely been analyzed for long-term hydrologic response to changing climate. This study aims to address this issue by examining the Apex River, a small watershed with a long hydroclimatic record, near Iqaluit, Nunavut. Particular emphasis was placed on the long-term changes in climate and river discharge, and the seasonal variability of water sources between two snapshots in time, 1983 and 2013. Long-term hydrological data were obtained from gauge station 10UH002, operated by Environment and Climate Change Canada, and long-term meteorological data were acquired from Environment Canada–operated stations near Iqaluit Airport. Breakpoint analysis suggested that long-term mean annual surface air temperatures have increased since 1994. In contrast, no long-term total precipitation or annual discharge changes were observed. However, river flow initiation and cessation analyses of the Apex River flow season indicates that flow extended into the autumn since the 2000s. The 2013 flow season lasted 44 days longer than the 1983 flow season. Systematic river sampling was undertaken throughout the 2013 thaw season to determine contributing proportions of event (snowmelt or rainfall) and pre-event (baseflow) water to river runoff. Results from the stable isotope hydrograph separation for 2013 were compared to findings for 1983. Snow was the main source of water to the river during the snowmelt period in 1983 and 2013, however baseflow was still an important contributor. Although there was high similarity of water sources early in the season in 1983 and 2013, the two years differed during the autumn. In 2013 there was a high rainfall runoff response that was not present in 1983, suggesting high release of late-season sub-surface water storage and an increased sensitivity to late-season rainfall events in 2013. This research provides insights into the hydrologic response of the Apex River to long-term climatic change, and highlights the need for high-quality precipitation and discharge data for effective long-term hydrological assessment.

Numerical analysis of surface and fossil pollen spectra from northern Fennoscandia

Aim Determination of the main directions of variance in an extensive data base of annual pollen deposition, and the relationship between pollen data from modified Tauber traps and palaeoecological data. Location Northern Finland and Norway. Methods Pollen analysis of annual samples from pollen traps and contiguous high-resolution samples from a peat sequence. Numerical analysis (principal components analysis) of the resulting data. Results The main direction of variation in the trap data is due to the vegetation region in which each trap is located. A secondary direction of variation is due to the annual variability of pollen production of some of the tree taxa, especially Betula and Pinus. This annual variability is more conspicuous in ‘absolute’ data than it is in percentage data which, at this annual resolution, becomes more random. There are systematic differences, with respect to peat-forming taxa, between pollen data from traps and pollen data from a peat profile collected over the same period of time. Main conclusions Annual variability in pollen production is rarely visible in fossil pollen samples because these cannot be sampled at precisely a 12-month resolution. At near-annual resolution sampling, it results in erratic percentage values which do not reflect changes in vegetation. Profiles sampled at near annual resolution are better analysed in terms of pollen accumulation rates with the realization that even these do not record changes in plant abundance but changes in pollen abundance. However, at the coarser temporal resolution common in most fossil samples it does not mask the origin of the pollen in terms of its vegetation region. Climate change may not be recognizable from pollen assemblages until the change has persisted in the same direction sufficiently long enough to alter the flowering (pollen production) pattern of the dominant trees.

Limpet grazing and loss of Ascophyllum nodosum canopies on decadal time scales

The role of limpet grazing in preventing the development of algal canopies is a recurrent theme in intertidal ecology. Less is known about interactions of limpets with the long-term dynamics of established canopies. Aerial photographs indicate that intertidal canopy cover has declined over the past 44 yr in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. There has been a loss of the previously continuous cover of Ascophyllum nodosum (L.) Le Jolis in the mid-shore. A barnacles dominated assemblage now fills gaps in the A. nodosum canopy. The rates at which barnacle patches become established and grow have increased since 1990. Changes in canopy cover have been accompanied by increases in limpet densities since the 1980s. Measurements between 2003 and 2004 showed no increase in length of A. nodosum fronds when limpets Patella vulgata had access to the algal holdfasts. In contrast, when limpets were experimentally excluded from the holdfasts, there was net frond growth. In the Isle of Man, which is climatically similar to Strangford Lough but has fewer limpets, growth occurred regardless of limpet grazing. The breaking force for A. nodosum declined with increasing local densities of limpets. A. nodosum is a sheltered shore species, potentially vulnerable to changes in wave exposure. There is no evidence, however, that Strangford Lough has become windier over the past 3 decades. Variation in wave exposure among locations within the lough was not related to rates of barnacle patch creation or expansion, Limpet population density has increased following a series of mild winters. Climate change may have a role in causing canopy loss, not by direct effects on the limpet populations.

‘The Judiciary and Political Change in Africa: Developing Transitional Jurisprudence in Nigeria’

At a time of increased evaluations of law, human rights, and the rise of judicial power all over the globe, the work of most African judiciaries and the principles of the jurisprudence they espouse in promoting social justice remain an unlikely focus of comparative legal scholarship. This ought not to be so in view of the considerable activities of the courts on the continent in the dawn of the third wave of democratization. This article explores the work of the Nigerian Supreme Court in the political transition to democracy since 1999. Utilizing insights from the work of Ruti Teitel, it attempts to outline some of the major constitutional and extraconstitutional principles adopted by the Court in mediating intergovernmental contestations in the turbulent transition away from almost three decades of authoritarian military rule. It emerges that the task of fostering social transformation through the “weakest” branch seriously tasks the institutional integrity of the judiciary.

Sources of Software Requirements Change from the Perspectives of Development and Maintenance

Changes to software requirements occur during initial development and subsequent to delivery, posing a risk to cost and quality while at the same time providing an opportunity to add value. Provision of a generic change source taxonomy will support requirements change risk visibility, and also facilitate richer recording of both pre- and post-delivery change data. In this paper we present a collaborative study to investigate and classify sources of requirements change, drawing comparison between those pertaining to software development and maintenance. We begin by combining evolution, maintenance and software lifecycle research to derive a definition of software maintenance, which provides the foundation for empirical context and comparison. Previously published change ‘causes’ pertaining to development are elicited from the literature, consolidated using expert knowledge and classified using card sorting. A second study incorporating causes of requirements change during software maintenance results in a taxonomy which accounts for the entire evolutionary progress of applications software. We conclude that the distinction between the terms maintenance and development is imprecise, and that changes to requirements in both scenarios arise due to a combination of factors contributing to requirements uncertainty and events that trigger change. The change trigger taxonomy constructs were initially validated using a small set of requirements change data, and deemed sufficient and practical as a means to collect common requirements change statistics across multiple projects.

Random walk simulations of fossil proxy data

A wealth of palaeoecological studies (e.g. pollen, diatoms, chironomids and macrofossils from deposits such as lakes or bogs) have revealed major as well as more subtle ecosystem changes over decadal to multimillennial timescales. Such ecosystem changes are usually assumed to have been forced by specific environmental changes. Here, we test if the observed changes in palaeoecological records may be reproduced by random simulations, and we find that simple procedures generate abrupt events, long-term trends, quasi-cyclic behaviour, extinctions and immigrations. Our results highlight the importance of replicated and multiproxy data for reliable reconstructions of past climate and environmental changes.