In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

A robust optimization approach for index tracking problem

Index tracking is an investment approach where the primary objective is to keep portfolio return as close as possible to a target index without purchasing all index components. The main purpose is to minimize the tracking error between the returns of the selected portfolio and a benchmark. In this paper, quadratic as well as linear models are presented for minimizing the tracking error. The uncertainty is considered in the input data using a tractable robust framework that controls the level of conservatism while maintaining linearity. The linearity of the proposed robust optimization models allows a simple implementation of an ordinary optimization software package to find the optimal robust solution. The proposed model of this paper employs Morgan Stanley Capital International Index as the target index and the results are reported for six national indices including Japan, the USA, the UK, Germany, Switzerland and France. The performance of the proposed models is evaluated using several financial criteria e.g. information ratio, market ratio, Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The preliminary results demonstrate that the proposed model lowers the amount of tracking error while raising values of portfolio performance measures.

Associations between individual socioeconomic position, neighbourhood disadvantage, and transport mode: Baseline results from the HABITAT multilevel study

Background Understanding how different socioeconomic indicators are associated with transport modes provide insight into which interventions might contribute to reducing socioeconomic inequalities in health. The purpose of this study was to examine associations between neighbourhood-level socioeconomic disadvantage, individual-level socioeconomic position (SEP) and usual transport mode. Methods This investigation included 11,036 residents from 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Respondents self-reported their usual transport mode (car or motorbike, public transport, walking or cycling). Indicators for individual-level SEP were education, occupation, and household income; and neighbourhood disadvantage was measured using a census-derived index. Data were analysed using multilevel multinomial logistic regression. High SEP respondents and residents of the most advantaged neighbourhoods who used a private motor vehicle as their usual form of transport was the reference category. Results Compared with driving a motor vehicle, the odds of using public transport were higher for white collar employees (OR1.68, 95%CrI 1.41-2.01), members of lower income households (OR 1.71 95%CrI 1.25-2.30), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 1.93, 95%CrI 1.46-2.54); and lower for respondents with a certificate-level education (OR 0.60, 95%CrI 0.49-0.74) and blue collar workers (OR 0.63, 95%CrI 0.50-0.81). The odds of walking for transport were higher for the least educated (OR 1.58, 95%CrI 1.18-2.11), those not in the labour force (OR 1.94, 95%CrI 1.38-2.72), members of lower income households (OR 2.10, 95%CrI 1.23-3.64), and residents of more disadvantaged neighbourhoods (OR 2.73, 95%CrI 1.46-5.24). The odds of cycling were lower among less educated groups (OR 0.31, 95% CrI 0.19-0.48). Conclusion The relationships between socioeconomic characteristics and transport modes are complex, and provide challenges for those attempting to encourage active forms of transportation. Further work is required exploring the individual- and neighbourhood-level mechanisms behind transport mode choice, and what factors might influence individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds to change to more active transport modes.

Wrestling with schools, schooling and educational research (Personal Reflections on the European Union-supported Educational Research 1995-2003: Briefing Papers for Policy Makers)

I must admit that I approached the European Union-supported educational research 1995-2003: Briefing papers for policy makers with a sense of trepidation. As a researcher who defines himself as socially critical, I wondered about the dynamics of a policy document that was published by the bureaucracy that has, in some form, a vested interest in the structure and operation of education in its various guises. In turning my attention to this review, I decided to focus my attention on the third guiding question that argues education and training "are strongly interconnected with concerns that include citizenship and democratic participation, inequalities and social justice, cultural diversity and quality of life" (Millei, 2005). The Briefing Papers include recommendations on democracy and citizenship, social exclusion and equality, gender and dealing with mental illness in schools...

Assessing acculturation over time: A four-year prospective study of Asian American young adults

Acculturation is commonly defined as a dynamic and multidimensional process in which individuals and groups change over time when coming into contact with another culture. Despite the emphasis on acculturation as a process of change over time, few researchers have directly assessed this hypothesis. The current study first identifies and then examines "stable" and "dynamic" dimensions of acculturation within a 4-year prospective study of 433 first- and second-generation Chinese- and Korean-American college students. Separate growth model analyses revealed significant linear change for first-generation students toward greater U.S. acculturation. In comparison, tests of linear and quadratic change for second-generation students were not significant. When stratifying by gender, acculturation increased for women but there was no significant change in acculturation for men. While all students reported increases in alcohol consumption over the study period, changes in acculturation predicted changes in alcohol consumption only for women. Chinese men showed greater increases in alcohol consumption than Korean men but there was no effect for ethnicity among women. There was significant individual variability in the models, which underscores the importance of examining change prospectively through within and between person analyses. The findings highlight the importance of examining acculturation changes over time for different migrant groups with implications for further development of acculturation measures, research methodologies, and health interventions. More prospective research designs of acculturation are needed to examine changes in health behavior and overall adaptation across migrant groups at varying stages of development.

Re-theorizing the “digital divide”: Identifying dimensions of social exclusion in contemporary media technologies

The digital divide is the disparancy in access to information, in the ability to communicate, and in the capacity to make information and communication serve full participation in the information society. Indeed, the conversation about the digital divide has developed over the last decade from a focus on connectivity and access to information and communication technologies, to a conversation that encompasses the ability to use them and to the utility that usage provides (Wei et al., 2011). However, this conversation, while transitioning from technology to the skills of the people that use them and to the fruits of their use is limited in its ability to take into account the social role of information and communication technologies (ICTs). One successful attempt in conceptualizing the social impact of the differences in access to and utilization of digital communication technologies, was developed by van Dijk (2005) whose sequential model for analyzing the divide states that: 1. Categorical inequalities in society produce an unequal distribution of resources; 2. An unequal distribution of resources causes unequal access to digital technologies; 3. Unequal access to digital technologies also depends on the characteristics of these technologies; 4. Unequal access to digital technologies brings about unequal participation in society; 5. Unequal participation in society reinforces categorical inequalities and unequal distributions of resources.” (p. 15) As van Dijk’s model demonstrates, the divide’s impact is the exclusion of individuals from participation. Still left to be defined are the “categorical inequalities,” the “resources,” the “characteristics of digital technologies,” and the different levels of “access” that result in differentiated levels of participation, as these change over time due to the evolving nature of technology and the dynamics of society. And most importantly, the meaning of “participation” in contemporary society needs to be determined as it is differentiated levels of participation that are the result of the divide and the engine of the ever-growing disparities. Our argument is structured in the following manner: We first claim that contemporary digital media differ from the previous generation of ICTs along four dimensions: They offer an abundance of information resources and communication channels when compared to the relative paucity of both in the past; they offer mobility as opposed to the stationary nature of their predecessors; they are interactive in that they provide users with the capability to design their own media environments in contrast to the dictated environs of previous architectures; and, they allow users to communicate utilizing multi forms of mediation, unlike the uniformity of sound or word that limited users in the past. We then submit that involvement in the information society calls for egalitarian access to all four dimensions of the user experience that make contemporary media different from their predecessors and that the ability to experience all four affects the levels in which humans partake in the shaping of society. The model being cyclical, we then discuss how lower levels of participation contribute to the enhancement of social inequalities. Finally, we discuss why participation is needed in order to achieve full membership in the information society and what political philosophy should govern policy solutions targeting the re-inclusion of those digitally excluded.

Negotiating Chineseness through learning Chinese as a Heritage Language in Australia: The role of habitus

While education researchers have drawn on the work of a wide diversity of theorists over the years, much contemporary theory building in these areas has revolved around the work of Pierre Bourdieu. Theory as Method in Research develops the capacity of students, researchers and teachers to successfully put Bourdieu’s ideas to work in their own research and prepare them effectively for conducting Masters and Doctoral scholarships. Structured around four core themes, this book provides a range of research case studies exploring educational identities, educational inequalities, school leadership and management, and research in teacher education. Issues as diverse as Chinese language learning and identity, school leadership in Australia and the school experience of Afro-Trinidadian boys, are covered, intertwined with a set of innovative approaches to theory application in education research. This collection brings together, in one comprehensive volume, a set of education researchers who place Pierre Bourdieu’s key concepts such as habitus, capital and field at the centre of their research methodologies. Full of insight and innovation, the book is an essential read for practitioners, student teachers, researchers and academics who want to harness the potential of Bourdieu’s core concepts in their own work, thereby helping to bridge the gap between theory and method in education research.

Creating change in government to address the social determinants of health: How can efforts be improved?

Background The evidence base for the impact of social determinants of health has been strengthened considerably in the last decade. Increasingly, the public health field is using this as a foundation for arguments and actions to change government policies. The Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach, alongside recommendations from the 2010 Marmot Review into health inequalities in the UK (which we refer to as the ‘Fairness Agenda’), go beyond advocating for the redesign of individual policies, to shaping the government structures and processes that facilitate the implementation of these policies. In doing so, public health is drawing on recent trends in public policy towards ‘joined up government’, where greater integration is sought between government departments, agencies and actors outside of government. Methods In this paper we provide a meta-synthesis of the empirical public policy research into joined up government, drawing out characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives. We use this thematic synthesis as a basis for comparing and contrasting emerging public health interventions concerned with joined-up action across government. Results We find that HiAP and the Fairness Agenda exhibit some of the characteristics associated with successful joined up initiatives, however they also utilise ‘change instruments’ that have been found to be ineffective. Moreover, we find that – like many joined up initiatives – there is room for improvement in the alignment between the goals of the interventions and their design. Conclusion Drawing on public policy studies, we recommend a number of strategies to increase the efficacy of current interventions. More broadly, we argue that up-stream interventions need to be ‘fit-for-purpose’, and cannot be easily replicated from one context to the next.

Does size matter? An assessment of quota market evolution and performance in the Great Barrier Reef fin-fish fishery

In fisheries managed using individual transferable quotas (ITQs) it is generally assumed that quota markets are well-functioning, allowing quota to flow on either a temporary or permanent basis to those able to make best use of it. However, despite an increasing number of fisheries being managed under ITQs, empirical assessments of the quota markets that have actually evolved in these fisheries remain scarce. The Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery (CRFFF) on the Great Barrier Reef has been managed under a system of ITQs since 2004. Data on individual quota holdings and trades for the period 2004-2012 were used to assess the CRFFF quota market and its evolution through time. Network analysis was applied to assess market structure and the nature of lease-trading relationships. An assessment of market participants’ abilities to balance their quota accounts, i.e., gap analysis, provided insights into market functionality and how this may have changed in the period observed. Trends in ownership and trade were determined, and market participants were identified as belonging to one out of a set of seven generalized types. The emergence of groups such as investors and lease-dependent fishers is clear. In 2011-2012, 41% of coral trout quota was owned by participants that did not fish it, and 64% of total coral trout landings were made by fishers that owned only 10% of the quota. Quota brokers emerged whose influence on the market varied with the bioeconomic conditions of the fishery. Throughout the study period some quota was found to remain inactive, implying potential market inefficiencies. Contribution to this inactivity appeared asymmetrical, with most residing in the hands of smaller quota holders. The importance of transaction costs in the operation of the quota market and the inequalities that may result are discussed in light of these findings

Study of robust H(infinity) filtering application in loosely coupled INS/GPS system

Since a celebrate linear minimum mean square (MMS) Kalman filter in integration GPS/INS system cannot guarantee the robustness performance, a H(infinity) filtering with respect to polytopic uncertainty is designed. The purpose of this paper is to give an illustration of this application and a contrast with traditional Kalman filter. A game theory H(infinity) filter is first reviewed; next we utilize linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach to design the robust H(infinity) filter. For the special INS/GPS model, unstable model case is considered. We give an explanation for Kalman filter divergence under uncertain dynamic system and simultaneously investigate the relationship between H(infinity) filter and Kalman filter. A loosely coupled INS/GPS simulation system is given here to verify this application. Result shows that the robust H(infinity) filter has a better performance when system suffers uncertainty; also it is more robust compared to the conventional Kalman filter.

Sedentary behaviour and health: Mapping environmental and social contexts to underpin chronic disease prevention

The time that children and adults spend sedentary–put simply, doing too much sitting as distinct from doing too little physical activity—has recently been proposed as a population-wide, ubiquitous influence on health outcomes. It has been argued that sedentary time is likely to be additional to the risks associated with insufficient moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. New evidence identifies relationships of too much sitting with overweight and obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, some cancers and other adverse health outcomes. There is a need for a broader base of evidence on the likely health benefits of changing the relevant sedentary behaviours, particularly gathering evidence on underlying mechanisms and dose–response relationships. However, as remains the case for physical activity, there is a research agenda to be pursued in order to identify the potentially modifiable environmental and social determinants of sedentary behaviour. Such evidence is required so as to understand what might need to be changed in order to influence sedentary behaviours and to work towards population-wide impacts on prolonged sitting time. In this context, the research agenda needs to focus particularly on what can inform broad, evidence-based environmental and policy initiatives. We consider what has been learned from research on relationships of environmental and social attributes and physical activity; provide an overview of recent-emerging evidence on relationships of environmental attributes with sedentary behaviour; argue for the importance of conducting international comparative studies and addressing life-stage issues and socioeconomic inequalities and we propose a conceptual model within which this research agenda may be addressed.

Tracking adversarial targets

We study linear control problems with quadratic losses and adversarially chosen tracking targets. We present an efficient algorithm for this problem and show that, under standard conditions on the linear system, its regret with respect to an optimal linear policy grows as O(log^2 T), where T is the number of rounds of the game. We also study a problem with adversarially chosen transition dynamics; we present an exponentiallyweighted average algorithm for this problem, and we give regret bounds that grow as O(sqtr p T).

Countering disablism: An alternative universal income support system based on egalitarianism

The long-term vision of economic security and social participation for people with a disability held by disability activists and policy-makers has not been realised on a global scale. This is despite the implementation of various poverty alleviation initiatives by international and national governments. Indeed within advanced Western liberal democracies, the inequalities and poverty gaps have widened rather than closed. This article is based on findings from a historical-comparative policy and discourse analysis of disability income support system in Australia and the Basic Income model. The findings suggest that a model such as Basic Income, grounded in principles of social citizenship, goes some way to maintaining an adequate level of subsistence for people with a disability. The article concludes by presenting some challenges and a commitment to transforming income support policy.

Applying POVM to model non-orthogonality in quantum cognition

Much of the work currently occurring in the field of Quantum Interaction (QI) relies upon Projective Measurement. This is perhaps not optimal, cognitive states are not nearly as well behaved as standard quantum mechanical systems; they exhibit violations of repeatability, and the operators that we use to describe measurements do not appear to be naturally orthogonal in cognitive systems. Here we attempt to map the formalism of Positive Operator Valued Measure (POVM) theory into the domain of semantic memory, showing how it might be used to construct Bell-type inequalities.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.