Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Probability in Quantum Mechanics: The Everett Interpretation and the Decision-Theoretic Program

The Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics is an increasingly popular alternative to the traditional Copenhagen interpretation, but there are a few major issues that prevent the widespread adoption. One of these issues is the origin of probabilities in the Everett interpretation, which this thesis will attempt to survey. The most successful resolution of the probability problem thus far is the decision-theoretic program, which attempts to frame probabilities as outcomes of rational decision making. This marks a departure from orthodox interpretations of probabilities in the physical sciences, where probabilities are thought to be objective, stemming from symmetry considerations. This thesis will attempt to offer evaluations on the decision-theoretic program.

Measuring the influence of customer-based store brand equity in the purchase intention

[EN] Store brands account for and important market share in the Spain and a further increase in expected in the next years due to the downturn. However, there is lack of research on store brand customer-based Brand Equity. This study attempts to propose an integrated model of Brand Equity in store or retailer brands, based on Aaker s well-known conceptual model. We propose a consumer-based model, including the main sources or dimensions of Brand Equity and considering the intention to purchase as a consequence. Based on a sample of 362 consumers and 5 store brands, structural equation modeling is used to test research hypotheses. The results obtained reveal that store brand awareness, loyalty along with store brand perceived quality have a significant influence on consumers intention to purchase store brands. Our study suggests that marketers and marketing managers from retailing companies should carefully consider the Brand Equity components when designing their brand strategies, and develop marketing activities in order to enhance their brands awareness.

Limites da gestão municipal na incorporação de tecnologias: o caso da mamografia na região do Médio Paraíba

O trabalho buscou avaliar as dificuldades e limites da gestão municipal na incorporação de serviços de mamografia em sete municípios selecionados na região do Médio Paraíba. Utilizando abordagem metodológica qualiquantitativa, se desenvolveu a partir do levantamento de dados secundários sobre o parque tecnológico de serviços e a produção de mamografias nos municípios selecionados e da realização de entrevistas semi-estruturadas aplicadas junto aos gestores municipais e aos responsáveis pelos setores de Controle, Avaliação e Auditoria das localidades. A análise das entrevistas identificou sete categorias temáticas principais: (1) o conhecimento do nível local sobre o problema de saúde em tela, onde se pode constatar dificuldades para uma análise mais precisa da situação de saúde relacionada ao câncer de mama nas localidades; (2) o conhecimento dos processos de tomada de decisão, onde se pode perceber que a gestão municipal esbarra em uma série de dificuldades que impossibilitam, em muitos casos, a incorporação de tecnologias nos serviços próprios, trazendo como única alternativa a compra dos serviços mamográficos; (3) a oferta e acesso aos exames mamográficos, evidenciando precariedade, pois é facilitada somente a porta de entrada nos serviços de Atenção Básica; (4) a produção dos procedimentos, revelando que, de uma forma geral, os gestores têm se esforçado por cumprir com as metas pactuadas, ainda que o exame das informações disponíveis mostrem que seu alcance encontra-se, via de regra, distante do pretendido; (5) a regulação e monitoramento dos serviços mamográficos, onde pode se perceber a baixa adesão ao Sistema de Regulação nas gestões locais; (6) a satisfação quanto à prestação dos serviços contratados, usualmente avaliadas de forma subjetiva e ancorada tão somente na falta de reclamações; e, por fim, (7) dificuldades na tomada de decisão relativa à incorporação de um serviço mamográfico próprio, que esbarram em impedimentos políticos, administrativos e financeiros. Pode-se concluir que o estudo permitiu extrair subsídios capazes de contribuir para o conhecimento e reflexão sobre as práticas de incorporação tecnológica e monitoramento dos serviços mamográficos na região.

Design and implementation of a cloud computing adoption decision tool: Generating a cloud road

Migrating to cloud computing is one of the current enterprise challenges. This technology provides a new paradigm based on "on-demand payment" for information and communication technologies. In this sense, the small and medium enterprise is supposed to be the most interested, since initial investments are avoided and the technology allows gradual implementation. However, even if the characteristics and capacities have been widely discussed, entry into the cloud is still lacking in terms of practical, real frameworks. This paper aims at filling this gap, presenting a real tool already implemented and tested, which can be used as a cloud computing adoption decision tool. This tool uses diagnosis based on specific questions to gather the required information and subsequently provide the user with valuable information to deploy the business within the cloud, specifically in the form of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. This information allows the decision makers to generate their particular Cloud Road. A pilot study has been carried out with enterprises at a local level with a two-fold objective: To ascertain the degree of knowledge on cloud computing and to identify the most interesting business areas and their related tools for this technology. As expected, the results show high interest and low knowledge on this subject and the tool presented aims to readdress this mismatch, insofar as possible. Copyright: © 2015 Bildosola et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.