Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Towards a database on societal impact of Mediterranean floods in the framework of the HYMEX project

The NW Mediterranean region experiences every year heavy rainfall and flash floods that occasionally produce catastrophic damages. Less frequent are floods that affect large regions. Although a large number of databases devoted exclusively to floods or considering all kind of natural hazards do exist, usually they only record catastrophic flood events. This paper deals with the new flood database that is being developed within the framework of HYMEX project. Results are focused on four regions representative of the NW sector of Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, Spain; the Balearic Islands, Spain; Calabria, Italy; and Languedoc-Roussillon, Midi-Pyrenées and PACA, France. The common available 30-yr period starts in 1981 and ends in 2010. The paper shows the database structure and criteria, the comparison with other flood databases, some statistics on spatial and temporal distribution, and an identification of the most important events. The paper also provides a table that includes the date and affected region of all the catastrophic events identified in the regions of study, in order to make this information available for all audiences.

Nitrogen washing from C3 and C4 cover grasses residues by rain

Crop species with the C4 photosynthetic pathway are more efficient in assimilating N than C3 plants, which results in different N amounts prone to be washed from its straw by rain water. Such differences may affect N recycling in agricultural systems where these species are grown as cover crops. In this experiment, phytomass production and N leaching from the straw of grasses with different photosynthetic pathways were studied in response to N application. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) and congo grass (Brachiaria ruziziensis) with the C4 photosynthetic pathway, and black oat (Avena Strigosa) and triticale (X Triticosecale), with the C3 photosynthetic pathway, were grown for 47 days. After determining dry matter yields and N and C contents, a 30 mm rainfall was simulated over 8 t ha-1 of dry matter of each plant residue and the leached amounts of ammonium and nitrate were determined. C4 grasses responded to higher fertilizer rates, whereas N contents in plant tissue were lower. The amount of N leached from C4 grass residues was lower, probably because the C/N ratio is higher and N is more tightly bound to organic compounds. When planning a crop rotation system it is important to take into account the difference in N release of different plant residues which may affect N nutrition of the subsequent crop.

Relationship between soil oxidizable carbon and physical, chemical and mineralogical properties of umbric ferralsols

The occurrence of Umbric Ferralsols with thick umbric epipedons (> 100 cm thickness) in humid Tropical and Subtropical areas is a paradox since the processes of organic matter decomposition in these environments are very efficient. Nevertheless, this soil type has been reported in areas in the Southeast and South of Brazil, and at some places in the Northeast. Aspects of the genesis and paleoenvironmental significance of these Ferralsols still need a better understanding. The processes that made the umbric horizons so thick and dark and contributed to the preservation of organic carbon (OC) at considerable depths in these soils are of special interest. In this study, eight Ferralsols with a thick umbric horizon (UF) under different vegetation types were sampled (tropical rain forest, tropical seasonal forest and savanna woodland) and their macromorphological, physical, chemical and mineralogical properties studied to detect soil characteristics that could explain the preservation of high carbon amounts at considerable depths. The studied UF are clayey to very clayey, strongly acidic, dystrophic, and Al-saturated and charcoal fragments are often scattered in the soil matrix. Kaolinites are the main clay minerals in the A and B horizons, followed by abundant gibbsite and hydroxyl-interlayered vermiculite. The latter was only found in UFs derived from basalt rock in the South of the country. Total carbon (TC) ranged from 5 to 101 g kg-1 in the umbric epipedon. Dichromate-oxidizable organic carbon represented nearly 75 % of TC in the thick A horizons, while non-oxidizable C, which includes recalcitrant C (e.g., charcoal), contributed to the remaining 25 % of TC. Carbon contents were not related to most of the inorganic soil variables studied, except for oxalate-extractable Al, which individually explained 69 % (P < 0.001) of the variability of TC in the umbric epipedon. Clay content was not suited as predictor of TC or of the other studied C forms. Bulk density, exchangeable Al3+, Al saturation, ECEC and other parameters obtained by selective extraction were not suitable as predictors of TC and other C forms. Interactions between organic matter and poorly crystalline minerals, as indicated by oxalate-extractable Al, appear to be one of the possible organic matter protection mechanisms of these soils.

Available content, surface runoff and leaching of phosphorus forms in a typic hapludalf treated with organic and mineral nutrient sources

The application of animal manure to soil can increase phosphorus availability to plants and enhance transfer of the nutrient solution drained from the soil surface or leached into the soil profile. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of successive applications of organic and mineral nutrient sources on the available content, surface runoff and leaching of P forms in a Typic Hapludalf in no-tillage systems. Experiment 1 was set up in 2004 in the experimental area of UFSM, in Santa Maria (RS, Brazil). The treatments consisted of: control (without nutrient application) and application of pig slurry (PS), pig deep-litter (PL), cattle slurry (CS), and mineral fertilizers (NPK). The rates were determined to meet the N crop requirements of no-tillage black oat and maize, grown in the 2010/2011 growing season. The soil solution was collected after each event (rain + runoff or leaching) and the soluble, particulate and total P contents were measured. In November 2008, soil was collected in 2 cm intervals to a depth of 20 cm, in 5 cm intervals to a depth of 40 cm, and in 10 cm intervals to a depth of 70 cm. The soil was dried and ground, and P determined after extraction by anion exchange resin (AER). In experiment 2, samples collected from the Typic Hapludalf near experiment 1 were incubated for 20, 35, 58, 73 and 123 days after applying the following treatments: soil, soil + PS, soil + PL, soil + CS and soil + NPK. Thereafter, the soil was sampled and P was analyzed by AER. The applications of nutrient sources over the years led to an increase in available P and its migration in the soil profile. This led to P transfer via surface runoff and leaching, with the largest transfer being observed in PS and PL treatments, in which most P was applied. The soil available P and P transfer via surface runoff were correlated with the amounts applied, regardless of the P source. However, P transfer by leaching was not correlated with the applied nutrient amount, but rather with the solution amount leached in the soil profile.

Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51), the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

Determination of radionuclide levels in rainwater using ion exchange resin and gamma-spectrometry.

The evaluation of radioactivity accidentally released into the atmosphere involves determining the radioactivity levels of rainwater samples. Rainwater scavenges atmospheric airborne radioactivity in such a way that surface contamination can be deduced from rainfall rate and rainwater radioactivity content. For this purpose, rainwater is usually collected in large surface collectors and then measured by gamma-spectrometry after such treatments as evaporation or iron hydroxide precipitation. We found that collectors can be adapted to accept large surface (diameter 47mm) cartridges containing a strongly acidic resin (Dowex AG 88) which is able to quantitatively extract radioactivity from rainwater, even during heavy rainfall. The resin can then be measured by gamma-spectrometry. The detection limit is 0.1Bq per sample of resin (80g) for (137)Cs. Natural (7)Be and (210)Pb can also be measured and the activity ratio of both radionuclides is comparable with those obtained through iron hydroxide precipitation and air filter measurements. Occasionally (22)Na has also been measured above the detection limit. A comparison between the evaporation method and the resin method demonstrated that 2/3 of (7)Be can be lost during the evaporation process. The resin method is simple and highly efficient at extracting radioactivity. Because of these great advantages, we anticipate it could replace former rainwater determination methods. Moreover, it does not necessitate the transportation of large rainwater volumes to the laboratory.

Evaluation of Asphalt Mix Permeability, MLR-90-2, 1992

Efforts to eliminate rutting on the Interstate system have resulted in 3/4 in. aggregate mixes, with 75 blow Marshall, 85% crushed aggregate mix designs. On a few of these projects paved in 1988-1989, water has appeared on the surfaces. Some conclusions have been reached by visual on-sight investigations that the water is coming from surface water, rain and melting snow gaining entry into the surface asphalt mixture, then coming back out in selected areas. Cores were taken from several Interstate projects and tested for permeability to investigate the surface water theory that supposedly happens with only the 3/4 in. mixtures. All cores were of asphalt overlays over portland cement concrete, except for the Clarke County project which is full depth AC. The testing consisted of densities, permeabilities, voids by high pressure airmeter (HPAM), extraction, gradations, AC content, and film thicknesses. Resilient modulus, indirect tensile and retained strengths after freeze/thaw were also done. All of the test results are about as expected. Permeabilities, the main reason for testing, ranged from 0.00 to 2.67 ft per day and averages less than 1/2 ft per day if the following two tests are disregarded. One test on each binder course came out to 15.24 ft/day, and a surface course at 13.78 ft/day but these are not out of supposedly problem projects.

Stable O and H isotopic composition of hydrous minerals as proxies for paleoclimate and -topography : application to the European Alps

The isotopie composition of clay minerals can be used to gain information on paleoaltitude, -topography and -climate during the time of their formation, as they form in isotopie equilibrium with ambient water, which has an isotopie composition that is determined by previous rain-out. In this thesis, the usability of this approach is evaluated for sample material from both the North Alpine Foreland Basin and internal parts of the European Alps. The isotopie composition of precipitation is determined by the air temperature and the extent of previous rain-out, which in turn is affected by the distance to the point of origin of the water vapor and the condensation conditions. An orographic barrier leads to uplift and adiabatic cooling of air masses and thereby enhances rainfall with a characteristic depletion in heavy 0 and H isotopes. Processes such as evaporation and mixing of water with different origin affect the isotopie composition further on the surface. Clay minerals are hydrous phyllosilicates that can form during weathering or pedogenesis in isotopie equilibrium with the present water and inherit its isotopie composition with a characteristic fractionation. If their isotopie composition was preserved after formation and the necessary parameters are known, it is possible to calculate the isotopie composition of the ambient water and thereby reconstruct climatic and topographic conditions during their formation. Due to the hygroscopic behavior of the sample material, analytical procedures needed to be modified to allow an analysis of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopie composition of the hydroxyl water built into their crystal structure and not the one of recently adsorbed water. In order to determine typical 5lsO and 8D values of meteoric water and minerals in the weathering environment in high Alpine regions, samples of surface water and soils from the valley of Visp in the Swiss Alps were studied that were collected along a transect with varying altitudes and host rock lithologies. The actual aim to attempt the reconstruction of Alpine paleoelevations was addressed by the analysis of sediments deposited under marine and terrestrial conditions during the Miocene and Oligocene, which were sampled from different locations in Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Further bentonite and fault gouge clay samples were used as reference material from low and high elevations. Results show that the isotopie composition of clay minerals can be influenced by several factors, such as the mode and site of their formation, possible isotope exchange (which is evident for 8D values), the samples' mineral composition (such as the presence of detrital material) and the deposition environment. With a consideration of these parameters and limitation to certain sample material, conclusions are drawn on the isotopie composition of the water from which the clay minerals formed. Most of the obtained values lie in the same range as has been reported in literature for foreland precipitation. The reconstruction of paleoelevation might be possible for selected sites with a geographical setting close to the Alpine chain or for intramontane basins. - La composition isotopique des argiles, qui se forment typiquement en contact avec des eaux superficielles, peut être utilisée pour obtenir des informations sur la paléoaltitude, la paléotopographie et le paléoclimat pendant leur création. La composition en isotopes stable (oxygène et hydrogène) des eaux de pluie est déterminée par l'altitude, la température, la distance depuis le lieu d'évaporation et par le taux de précipitation. Certains processus comme l'évaporation, l'interaction avec des minéraux et le mélange d'eaux d'origines variées peuvent aussi changer la composition des eaux de surface. Les argiles sont des pliyllosilicates hydratés qui sont crées par l'altération des roches au contact de ces eaux de surface et ils acquièrent une composition isotopique qui est soumise à un certain fractionnement. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer si l'effet de l'altitude des Alpes, est détectable dans la composition isotopique des sédiments du bassin d'avant-pavs pendant le Miocène. Après avoir établi la procédure analytique, des compositions isotopiques typiques de régions de hautes altitudes ont été determine sur les eaux de surfaces (rivières) et sur des échantillons de sols, le long d'une coupe dans la valée de Visp, dans les Alpes Suisses. Une reconstruction des paléoaltitudes Miocènes Alpines a ensuite été mené par l'analyse de sédiments marins et terrestres en utilisant des échantillons d'âges variés et provenant de Suisse, d'Allemagne et d'Autriche. Les résultats montrent que la composition isotopique des échantillons est impactée par de multiples facteurs, tels que le mode de et le lieu de formation. un possible échange isotopique tardif (surtout pour 5D). leur composition minéralogique et l'environnement de leur sédimentation. Après un examen prudent de ces paramètres, et en se limitant à un certain assortiment d'échatillons, on peut tirer des conclusions sur la composition isotopique des eaux originelles pour en déduire l'effet du climat et de la topographie.

High Molecular Weight Methacrylate Sealing of a Bridge Deck, HR-2031, 1988

The Iowa Department of Transportation used a high molecular weight methacrylate (HMWM) resin to seal a 3,340 ft. x 64 ft. bridge deck in October 1986. The sealing was necessary to prevent deicing salt brine from entering a substantial number of transverse cracks that coincided with the epoxy coated top steel and unprotected bottom steel. HMWM resin is a three component product composed of a monomer, a cumene hydroperoxide initiator and a cobalt naphthenate promoter. The HMWM was applied with a dual spray bar system and flat-fan nozzles. Initiated monomer delivered through one spray bar was mixed in the air with promoted monomer from the other spray bar. The application rate averaged 0.956 gallons per 100 square feet for the tined textured driving lanes. Dry sand was broadcast on the surface at an average coverage of 0.58 lbs. per square yard to maintain friction. Coring showed that the HMWM resin penetrated the cracks more than two inches deep. Testing of the treated deck yielded Friction Numbers averaging 33 with a treaded tire compared to 36 prior to treatment. An inspection soon after treatment found five leaky cracks in one of the 15 spans. One inspection during a steady rain showed no leakage, but leakage from numerous cracks occurred during a subsequent rain. A second HMWM application was made on two spans. Leakage through the double application occurred during a rain. Neither the single or double application were successful in preventing leakage through the cracks.

Evaluation of Cover Aggregate Stripping Characteristics, HR-182, 1979

The purpose of Research Project HR-182 was to identify those aggregate types which would perform satisfactorily as seal coat aggregates. Aggregates were chosen from across the State to represent the various types normally encountered and were used with two different types of binder bitumens. A water spray treatment was also included to simulate the effects of rainfall. The evaluation was based upon aggregate retention. Due to the influence of unexpected variables upon the field samples, the laboratory data are reliable for only the most general observations. Namely, that gravels as a group appear to be retained better than carbonates and rain-fall shortly after seal coat placement can affect aggregate retention. The subsequent field observations and analysis of skid resistance data permit the following conclusions: 1. Aggregate retention is influenced by lithologic type with the gravels, quartzite, haydite, dolomites, and medium grained limestones performing best. 2. Aggregate retention is not influenced by binder bitumen type. 3. Friction values of seal coats are influ-enced by aggregate retention and/or lithologic type. The following recommendations have been determined: The aggregate used for cover aggregate/seal coat projects should be Type 4 or better skid resistance as identified in Iowa DOT Materials Instructional Memorandum T-203. This will result in maximizing the possibility of good aggregate retention and skid resistance.

Floods of July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins, Northeast Iowa, HR-140

Severe flooding occurred during July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins following two thunderstorms over northeast Iowa. During July 18-19, as much as 6 inches ofrainfall was centered over Cerro Gordo, Floyd, Mitchell, and Worth Counties. During July 20-21, a second storm occurred in which an additional rainfall of as much as 8 inches was centered over Chickasaw and Floyd Counties. The cumulative effect of the storms produced floods with new maximum peak discharges at the following streamflow-gaging stations: Wapsipinicon River near Tripoli, 19,400 cubic feet per second; Cedar River at Charles City, 31,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 90 years); Cedar River at Janesville, 42,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 80 years); and Flood Creek near Powersville, 19,000 cubic feet per second. Profiles of flood elevations for the July 1999 flood are presented in this report for selected reaches along the Wapsipinicon, Cedar, and Shell Rock Rivers and along Flood Creek. Information about the river basins, rain storms, and flooding are presented along with information on temporary bench marks and reference points in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins.

Survival of pathogens on soybean debris under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems

A study was conducted in the subtropical area of Southern Brazil to determine the survival of pathogens in soybean residues under conventional and no-tillage cultivation systems from March to September of 1998 and 1999. The pathogens most frequently isolated were Colletotrichum truncatum, Phomopsis spp., Cercospora kikuchii, Fusarium spp., Macrophomina phaseolina, and Rhizoctonia solani. Other fungi isolated were Myrothecium roridum, Penicillium sp., Chaetomium sp., Epicoccum sp., Corynespora cassiicola and Trichoderma sp. The percent of survival of each pathogen varied according to the month and the year. Survival of C. truncatum, Phomopsis spp. and C. kikuchii were significantly reduced (p<0.05) from the first to the last evaluation either on buried debris or maintained on the soil surface. On the other hand, M. phaseolina and Fusarium spp. were either not affected or favored by burying the debris. The frequency of recovery of Fusarium spp. increased specially in debris kept under the soil. The loss of biomass, measured by debris weight along the period of this study, showed a reduction of 44.4% in the conventional system and 34.9% in the no-tillage system in 1998, when rain was better distributed. In 1999, the reduction was 48.2% and 39.0% for the conventional and no-tillage system, respectively.

Small-molecule inhibitor of USP7/HAUSP ubiquitin protease stabilizes and activates p53 in cells.

Deregulation of the ubiquitin/proteasome system has been implicated in the pathogenesis of many human diseases, including cancer. Ubiquitin-specific proteases (USP) are cysteine proteases involved in the deubiquitination of protein substrates. Functional connections between USP7 and essential viral proteins and oncogenic pathways, such as the p53/Mdm2 and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase/protein kinase B networks, strongly suggest that the targeting of USP7 with small-molecule inhibitors may be useful for the treatment of cancers and viral diseases. Using high-throughput screening, we have discovered HBX 41,108, a small-molecule compound that inhibits USP7 deubiquitinating activity with an IC(50) in the submicromolar range. Kinetics data indicate an uncompetitive reversible inhibition mechanism. HBX 41,108 was shown to affect USP7-mediated p53 deubiquitination in vitro and in cells. As RNA interference-mediated USP7 silencing in cancer cells, HBX 41,108 treatment stabilized p53, activated the transcription of a p53 target gene without inducing genotoxic stress, and inhibited cancer cell growth. Finally, HBX 41,108 induced p53-dependent apoptosis as shown in p53 wild-type and null isogenic cancer cell lines. We thus report the identification of the first lead-like inhibitor against USP7, providing a structural basis for the development of new anticancer drugs.