Personal advisors for business professionals: improving communication skills with online corpora

The business sphere is a multilingual world where foreign language communication skills are crucial in international relations. It makes employers look for business professionals who have a high level of linguistic competences. Language proficiency increases the chances of negotiation among partners. There are mainly two obstacles that make barriers in formal communication in a foreign language: lack of knowledge of specific linguistic structures or terminology and frequent transitions from one language to another. This paper contributes to the quest for quick access to a wide range of English, Spanish and Russian online databases that provide authentic language samples. Their application may improve communication skills and facilitate preparation for business discourse.

Groundwater quality, vulnerability and potential assessment in Kobo Valley development project, Ethiopia

This study deals with investigating the groundwater quality for irrigation purpose, the vulnerability of the aquifer system to pollution and also the aquifer potential for sustainable water resources development in Kobo Valley development project. The groundwater quality is evaluated up on predicting the best possible distribution of hydrogeochemicals using geostatistical method and comparing them with the water quality guidelines given for the purpose of irrigation. The hydro geochemical parameters considered are SAR, EC, TDS, Cl-, Na+, Ca++, SO4 2- and HCO3 -. The spatial variability map reveals that these parameters falls under safe, moderate and severe or increasing problems. In order to present it clearly, the aggregated Water Quality Index (WQI) map is constructed using Weighted Arithmetic Mean method. It is found that Kobo-Gerbi sub basin is suffered from bad water quality for the irrigation purpose. Waja Golesha sub-basin has moderate and Hormat Golena is the better sub basin in terms of water quality. The groundwater vulnerability assessment of the study area is made using the GOD rating system. It is found that the whole area is experiencing moderate to high risk of vulnerability and it is a good warning for proper management of the resource. The high risks of vulnerability are noticed in Hormat Golena and Waja Golesha sub basins. The aquifer potential of the study area is obtained using weighted overlay analysis and 73.3% of the total area is a good site for future water well development. The rest 26.7% of the area is not considered as a good site for spotting groundwater wells. Most of this area fall under Kobo-Gerbi sub basin.

Social-media monitoring for cold-start recommendations

Generating personalized movie recommendations to users is a problem that most commonly relies on user-movie ratings. These ratings are generally used either to understand the user preferences or to recommend movies that users with similar rating patterns have rated highly. However, movie recommenders are often subject to the Cold-Start problem: new movies have not been rated by anyone, so, they will not be recommended to anyone; likewise, the preferences of new users who have not rated any movie cannot be learned. In parallel, Social-Media platforms, such as Twitter, collect great amounts of user feedback on movies, as these are very popular nowadays. This thesis proposes to explore feedback shared on Twitter to predict the popularity of new movies and show how it can be used to tackle the Cold-Start problem. It also proposes, at a finer grain, to explore the reputation of directors and actors on IMDb to tackle the Cold-Start problem. To assess these aspects, a Reputation-enhanced Recommendation Algorithm is implemented and evaluated on a crawled IMDb dataset with previous user ratings of old movies,together with Twitter data crawled from January 2014 to March 2014, to recommend 60 movies affected by the Cold-Start problem. Twitter revealed to be a strong reputation predictor, and the Reputation-enhanced Recommendation Algorithm improved over several baseline methods. Additionally, the algorithm also proved to be useful when recommending movies in an extreme Cold-Start scenario, where both new movies and users are affected by the Cold-Start problem.

Insurance segmentation as unfair discrimination: what to expect next in the wake of Test-Achats

Proceedings of the 16th Annual Conference organized by the Insurance Law Association of Serbia and German Foundation for International Legal Co-Operation (IRZ), entitled "Insurance law, governance and transparency: basics of the legal certainty" Palic Serbia, 17-19 April 2015.

Intervenção da fisioterapia após ligamentoplastia do LCA

RESUMO: Objectivo: Este estudo teve por objectivo descrever a prática clínica e os resultados da intervenção da fisioterapia, às 6, 12 e 24 semanas, em indivíduos após ligamentoplastia do LCA. Introdução: O sucesso da ligamentoplastia do LCA está directamente relacionado com a reabilitação após a realização da mesma, permitindo ao utente o retorno a um estilo de vida activo. Apesar de se saber que um programa de reabilitação estruturado e baseado na evidência tem um papel fulcral nos resultados após cirurgia, e de existir consenso sobre a efectividade destes programas após a cirurgia, o mesmo não se pode afirmar acerca de quais os melhores componentes que devem fazer parte desse programa. Tendo em conta a heterogeneidade encontrada na literatura, no que diz respeito à nomenclatura utilizada, às diferenças de duração dos protocolos e às variações significativas nas recomendações dos cuidados de reabilitação, torna-se primordial a realização duma caracterização da prática clínica da fisioterapia em indivíduos submetidos a ligamentoplastia em Portugal, e consequentemente, descrever quais os resultados obtidos ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade de dor e percepção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Realizou-se um estudo de série de casos, com uma amostra de conveniência, do tipo não probabilístico, constituída por 14 utentes referidos para 4 clínicas de fisioterapia e para 3 hospitais, e que cumpriam os critérios de inclusão e exclusão estabelecidos. Os utentes foram avaliados em 4 momentos pré-definidos: na 1ª sessão de fisioterapia e às 6, 12 e 24 semanas após cirurgia. Os resultados obtidos após intervenção da fisioterapia foram descritos ao nível da incapacidade funcional, da intensidade da dor e da percepção global de melhoria. Paralelamente realizou-se uma caracterização da prática clínica relativamente às modalidades utilizadas, número de sessões de tratamento e duração do episódio de cuidados. Resultados: Observou-se uma tendência de melhoria ao longo das 24 semanas em todas as dimensões da Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) e na Escala Numérica da Dor (END), assim como na percepção de melhoria pelo utente, medida através da Patient Global Impression of Change Scale (PGIC). Às 6 semanas, as melhorias nas variáveis de resultados foram superiores às encontradas às 12 e 24 semanas, ao nível da incapacidade funcional (à excepção das dimensões KOOS – actividades desportivas e de lazer e KOOS - qualidade de vida) e dor. Relativamente à intervenção da fisioterapia observou-se uma grande heterogeneidade nas modalidades e procedimentos utilizados. Em média realizaram-se 58,14 (±14,15) sessões, sendo que 71 foi o número de sessões mais utilizado. Conclusão: Os resultados deste estudo sugerem que apesar da heterogeneidade da prática clínica, a intervenção da fisioterapia proporciona melhorias ao nível da capacidade funcional e da dor, em indivíduos submetidos a ligamentoplastia do LCA e que essas melhorias são percepcionadas pelos participantes como clinicamente importantes. ---------ABSTRACT: Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the clinical practice and the results of physical therapy intervention, at 6, 12 and 24 weeks, in subjects after ACL reconstruction. Introduction: The success of ACL reconstruction is directly related with the rehabilitation after the surgery, allowing the patient to an active lifestyle return. Despite knowing that a rehabilitation program based on evidence and well designed has a key role in the results after surgery, the same cannot be said about what the best components that should make part of this program. Taking into account the heterogeneity found in the literature, whether at the level of the nomenclature used, whether at level of the differences in duration of the protocols, as well as the existence of recommendations of rehabilitative care that present significant variations at the international level, it becomes paramount to achieving a characterization of the clinical practice of physical therapy in subjects after ACL reconstruction in Portugal, and consequently describe the results obtained regarding to functional disability and pain intensity. Methodology: A case series design with a convenience sample of 14 patients referred to 7 different outpatients physical therapy settings, that fulfilled the pre- established inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients were evaluated in four pre-defined moments: in the first session of physiotherapy and at 6, 12 and 24 weeks after surgery. The results obtained after physiotherapy intervention were described at the level of functional disability, pain and global perception of change. Subsequently, it was proceeded the characterization the practice of physical therapy regarding to the modalities used, the number of treatment sessions and duration of the episode of care. Results: It was found that there was a trend of improvement, clinically important, over the 24 weeks in all dimensions of Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and in the Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS). At 6 weeks, improvements were superior to those found at 12 and 24 weeks, at the level of functional disability (with the exception of the KOOS-sports and recreation function and KOOS-knee related quality of life dimensions) and pain. As regards the intervention of physical therapy found that the heterogeneity encountered both at the level of clinical practice as evidence,are difficult to compare. On average 58,14 (±14,15) sessions were held, with 71 was the most commonly used sessions numbers. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that in spite of the heterogeneity of clinical practice, physical therapy intervention provides improvements in terms of functional disability and pain in subjects after ACL reconstruction.

Intervenção da fisioterapia em indíviduos com osteoartrose do joelho: características da prática clínica, resultados obtidos e fatores de prognóstico para os resultados de sucesso

RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da prática da Fisioterapia, bem como a influência das características dos indivíduos com Osteoartrose do joelho (OA) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia, tem sido alvo de estudo em vários países. No entanto em Portugal, estudos desta natureza são escassos ou inexistentes. Objetivo: Este trabalho teve dois principais objetivos: Por um lado pretendeu caracterizar a prática da Fisioterapia e determinar os seus resultados em indivíduos com OA do joelho ao nível da intensidade da dor, incapacidade funcional e perceção global de melhoria; Por outro, identificar fatores preditivos para os resultados de sucesso após a intervenção da Fisioterapia. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo de coorte prospetivo com 77 participantes que foram avaliados antes e após a intervenção (8 semanas), com um follow-up de 3 meses. Procedeu-se à caracterização da prática da Fisioterapia quanto às modalidades utilizadas, número de sessões de tratamento e duração do episódio de cuidados. Os resultados obtidos foram medidos após intervenção (8 semanas) e num follow-up (3 meses), através da Escala Numérica da Dor (END), da versão Portuguesa do Questionário Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS-PT), e da versão Portuguesa da Patient Global Impression of Change Scale (PGIC-PT). As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico com base no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT e a análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística multivariado no sentido de identificar as associações entre as variáveis na baseline e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Os resultados obtidos revelaram que existe uma grande diversidade de modalidades e procedimentos terapêuticos realizados pelos fisioterapeutas no tratamento da OA do joelho (em média 4 modalidades por utente), sendo os exercícios, a eletroterapia e a terapia manual, as intervenções mais frequentemente realizadas. Os resultados da intervenção revelaram uma redução significativa da intensidade da dor e da incapacidade funcional (medida pelas diferentes dimensões da KOOS-PT) às 8 semanas e aos 3 meses (p=0,001). A probabilidade de obter bons resultados na percepção de melhoria para realizar actividades da vida diária, está significativamente associada com a pontuação na dimensão KOOS AVD (OR=1,106, 95% IC 1,056-1,159) e com a intensidade da dor, (OR=0,543, 95% IC 0,300-0,983), na baseline. A probabilidade de obter bons resultados na percepção de melhoria relativa à dor, está significativamente associada com a pontuação na dimensão KOOS DOR (OR=1,116, 95% IC 1,030-1,209), e dimensão KOOS ADL (OR=1,123, 95% IC 1,014-1,243), na baseline. Conclusões: Os resultados do presente estudo revelam que a intervenção em Fisioterapia em casos de OA do joelho, apesar de utilizar uma grande diversidade de modalidades terapêuticas, proporciona uma redução significativa dos níveis de dor e incapacidade funcional em utentes com OA do joelho. Os resultados do presente estudo sugerem ainda que o sucesso da intervenção pode ser predito a partir de variáveis clinicas na baseline.------------ABSTRACT:Introduction: The knowledge about the practice of physical therapy, as well as the influence of the characteristics of subjects with knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the prognosis of the results achieved with physiotherapy, have been studied in several countries. However in Portugal, such studies are scarce or nonexistent. Objective: This study had two main aims: on one hand sought to characterize the practice of physical therapy and determine their outcomes in subjects with OA of the knee joint at the level of pain intensity, functional disability and global perception of improvement; Secondly, to identify predictive factors for successful outcomes after the intervention of physiotherapy. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study with 77 participants who were evaluated before and after the intervention (8 weeks), with a follow-up of 3 months. Proceeded to characterize the practice of physical therapy as modalities used, number of treatment sessions and duration of the period of care. The results were measured after intervention (8 weeks) and a follow-up (3 months) by a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS), the Portuguese version of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Questionnaire Outcome Score (KOOS-PT) and the Patient Global Impression of Change Scale- Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT). The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential prognostic factors based on scoring criteria≥5 na PGIC-PT and data analysis was performed using the method of multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between variables at baseline and outcome variables (p<0.05). Results: The results revealed that there is a great diversity of modalities and therapeutic procedures performed by physiotherapists in the treatment of knee OA (average 4 per user modes), with exercises, electrotherapy and manual therapy interventions most frequently performed. The results of intervention showed a significant reduction in the severity of pain and functional disability (measured by the different dimensions of the KOOS-PT) at 8 weeks and at 3 months (p = 0.001). The probability of getting good results in the perception of improvement to perform activities of daily living, is significantly associated with scores on the dimension KOOS ADL (OR=1,106, 95% CI 1,056-1,159) and the intensity of pain (OR = 0.543, 95% CI 0.300 to 0.983) at baseline. The probability of getting good results in the perception of improvement of the pain is significantly associated with scores on the KOOS PAIN (OR = 1.116, 95% CI 1.030 to 1.209) and KOOS ADL (OR = 1.123, 95% CI 1.014 to 1.243) at the baseline. Conclusions: The results of this study show that Physiotherapy treatment in cases of knee OA, provide a significant reduction of pain and disability among users with knee OA, despite the wide variety of therapeutic modalities. The results of this study also suggest that the success of the intervention can be predicted from clinical variables at baseline.

Análise da relação entre intensidade da actividade física realiada com a sensação subjectiva de esforço na população com idade igual ou superior a 75 anos

RESUMO: Objectivo: O objectivo geral do estudo é analisar a relação entre intensidade da actividade física (AF) realizada pela população idosa com 75 anos ou mais, com a respectiva sensação subjectiva de esforço (SSE). Introdução: Em Portugal, e de acordo o Instituto Nacional de Estatística, em 2011 cerca de 19% da população tem mais de 65 anos. Em 2050, as estimativas apontam que esta percentagem seja de 25%, ou seja, um quarto do país. O envelhecimento propicía um declínio físico e funcional, e para o retardar estão recomendados 150 minutos por semana de AF moderada. A forma como tem sido avaliada a AF tem por base um pressuposto de comparação com valores de gasto energético de uma população com uma média de 40 anos. É fundamental a realização de estudos que analisem a associação entre o nível de intensidade de AF com a SSE, para aferir se esta comparação é transponível para esta faixa etária. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo observacional analítico transversal, com uma amostra constituída por 39 participantes, com uma mediana 77,0 anos de idade (percentil 25: 76,0; percentil 75: 80,0), sendo a mínima 75 e a máxima 86 anos. As variáveis são a SSE e a intensidade de cada actividade realizada. O protocolo de avaliação foi constituído pelo questionário de caracterização sóciodemográfica, Diário de AF e a Escala de Borg RPE 6-20. Resultados: Existe uma associação negativa significativa entre a idade e o gasto energético total (rs = -0,365, p=0,022) e uma associação negativa, moderada e significativa entre a idade e a SSE reportada média (rs = -0,521, p=0,001) e máxima (rs = -0,465, p=0,003). Observou-se uma associação positiva e significativa entre a SSE máxima diária e o tempo total dedicado a actividades físicas (r=0,367 e p=0,022) e o gasto energético total (r=0,569, p<0,001). Verificou-se igualmente que quanto maior o gasto energético total diário, maior a média da SSE (r=0,411; p=0,009). Existe uma concordância moderada e significativa (Kappa=0,475; p<0,001) entre a sensação reportada pelo participante e a classificação atribuída em cada actividade pelo Compêndio de Actividades Físicas (Ainsworth et al, 1993). No entanto, com uma tendência para a subestimação dos MET’s atribuídos a cada actividade Conclusão: Os resultados do estudo sugerem que existe uma associação positiva e significativa entre intensidade da AF realizada e a SSE, aquando da realização da mesma actividade. Apesar desta associação ser moderada, este estudo sugere que a classificação que o Compêndio utiliza não é directamente aplicável à população idosa com 75 anos ou mais.-------------ABSTRACT: Purpose: The overall objective of the study is to analyze the relationship between intensity of physical activity performed by the elderly population with 75 years or more with their subjective feeling of effort. Background: In Portugal, according with data from Instituto Português de Estatística, in 2011 aproximately 19% of the population has more than 65 years old. In 2050, estimates suggest that this percentage will be 25%, which means a quarter of the country. The way in which physical activity has been evaluated is based on a comparing assumption with values of energy expenditure in a population with an average of 40 years. It is critical to conduct studies to examine the association between the level of intensity of physical activity with the subjective feeling of effort, to assess whether this comparison is applied to this age group. Methods: This is a cross sectional observational study with a sample of 39 participants, with a median age of 77.0 years (25th percentile: 76.0; 75th percentile: 80.0), with the minimum age 75 years and maximum age 86 years. The variables are the subjective feeling of physical effort and intensity of each activity. It was applied one protocol evaluation consisting of a questionnaire of sociodemographic characteristics, A journal of physical activities and Borg RPE 6-20 scale. Results: There is a significant negative association between age and total energy expenditure (rs = -0.365, p = 0.022) and a negative, moderate and significant association between age and average (rs = -0.521, p = 0.001) and maximum subjective feeling of exertion reported (rs = -0.465, p = 0.003). There was a significant positive association between the subjective feeling of daily maximum effort and total time spent on physical activity (r = 0.367 and p = 0.022) and total energy expenditure (r = 0.569, p <0.001). It was also found that the higher the total daily energy expenditure, the higher the average of the subjective sense of effort (r = 0.411, p = 0.009). There is a moderate and significant correlation (kappa = 0.475, p <0.001) between the sensation reported by the participant and the rank assigned to each activity by Compendium of Physical Activities (Ainsworth et al, 1993). However, there is a tendency to over-estimate the subjective feeling of effort, or underestimation of METs assigned to each activity Conclusion: Study results suggest a positive and significant association between the level of intensity of physical activity and the subjective feeling of exertion, within the same activity. Even though this association is moderated, this study suggests that the Compendium of Physical Activities rating doesn’t suit for individuals with 75 years old or more.

Intervenção da fisiopetarpia em indivíduos com osteoartrose do joelho: características da prática clínica e resultados obtidos em contexto de prática convencionada

RESUMO: Introdução: A osteoartrose do joelho em particular constitui uma das maiores causas de incapacidades no dia-a-dia, morbilidade e aumento dos custos de saúde na população, na medida em que é uma condição que quando sintomática progride para um padrão que incluí dor articular, perda de força, incapacidade para a marcha e redução da aptidão física. A sua prevalência aumenta com a idade, 7% entre pessoas dos 65-70 anos, e 11,2% para aqueles com 80 anos ou mais, pouco variando entre os estudos existentes. Um recente estudo da Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) refere que a osteoartrose é a quarta causa mais importante de incapacidade entre as mulheres e a oitava entre os homens. Objetivo do estudo: Descrever a intervenção da fisioterapia em contexto de prática clínica convencionada e os resultados obtidos em indivíduos com OA, ao nível da intensidade da dor, capacidade funcional e perceção global de melhoria. Desenho Metodológico: Trata-se de um Estudo de coorte prospetivo onde foram incluídos indivíduos de ambos os géneros, entre os 60 e os 80 anos, com osteoartrose do joelho referenciada clinicamente. Após o consentimento informado, os pacientes foram, avaliados em quatro momentos: num primeiro momento (T0), antes de iniciarem o tratamento; (T1) após 4 semanas do início do tratamento; (T2) coincidente com o final do tratamento; e (T3) 3 meses após o início do tratamento. Foi utilizado um Questionário de Caracterização Sócio-Demográfica e Clínica, a Escala numérica da dor – END, o questionário KOOS (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score) e a versão portuguesa da Patient Global Impression Change (PGIC-PT). A base de seleção dos indivíduos foi realizada numa clínica convencionada do Algarve. Resultados: Foi observado um aumento significativo em todos os outcomes avaliados pelo KOOS, END e PGIC num período até 3 meses após a intervenção. Na avaliação da END em T3 o valor da média foi de 1,63(±0,71). Para o KOOS nas subescalas Sintomas foi de 87,60(±5,86), Dor 85,71(±3,99), AVD 78,23(±3,48), ADL 67,71(±7,16), QV 80,71(±9,14), para a PGIC-AVD 5,29(±0,57), PGIC-DOR 5,97(±0,61). Os resultados obtidos pelo teste de Friedman, revelaram um valor de p<0,005. Assim, a melhoria da incapacidade funcional reportada pelos participantes neste grupo é estatisticamente diferente, e de forma significativa nos diferentes momentos de recolha de dados, durante e após o tratamento (X2 (3)=208,862, p<0,005)/ (X2(3)=205,041, p<0,005). Por fim os valores do somatório dos participantes, que estão inseridos em no grupo dos “Bons Resultados”( ≥5) foi de 27,14% em T0 passando para 100,00% em T3, enquanto que o grupo dos “Maus Resultados”(<5) foi de 72,86% em T0 e 100% em T3. Conclusão: Os resultados do presente estudo sugerem que a intervenção da Fisioterapia efetuadas em clínicas convencionadas nos casos da Osteoartrose do joelho são efetivas na redução significativa dos níveis de dor e incapacidade funcional e na Perceção global de melhoria em pacientes com Osteoartrose do joelho. ---------- ABSTRACT: Introduction: Osteoarthritis of the knee in particular is a major cause of disabilities in their day-to-day morbidity and increased healthcare costs in the population, in that it is a disease that when symptomatic progresses to a pattern that included joint pain, strength loss, inability to walk and reduction of physical fitness. It is referred as a risk factor for falls and fractures. Its prevalence increases with age, 7% of people between 65-70 years, and 11.2% for those aged 80 or more, ranging from some existing studies. A recent study by the World Health Organization (WHO) reports that osteoarthritis is the fourth leading cause of disability among women and eighth among men. Objective: To describe the characteristics and the outcomes of the physiotherapy practice in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Methodology: A prospective cohort study, with 70 individuals, aged between 60 and 80 years with the diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis and referred to physiotherapy treatment, was carried out. After informed consent, patients were evaluated in four different moments: at baseline (T0), before starting treatment; 4 weeks after starting their treatment (T1); 8 weeks after starting their treatment (T2); and in a 3 months follow-up (T3). Patients were assessed for their socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, pain intensity (using the numeric pain rating scale- NRS), disability (using the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score), and for their global impression of change (using the Portuguese version of the Patient Glogal Impression of Change scale). Results: The findings of this study indicate a significant increase in all outcomes assessed (pain, disability and global impression of change), during and after the physiotherapy treatment. At T3, the average value for the NRS was 1.63 (± 0.71). For KOOS in the symptoms subscales was 87.60 (± 5.86), pain 85.71 (± 3.99), ADL 78.23 (± 3.48), ADL 67.71 (± 7.16), QV 80.71 (± 9.14) for the PGIC-AVD 5.29 (± 0.57), PGIC-PAIN 5.97 (± 0.61). The results obtained though the Friedman test revealed a p-value <0.005. Thus, the improvement of functional capacity reported by participants in the group was statistically different at the different moments of data collection, during and after treatment (X 2 (3) = 208.862, p <0.005) / (X 2 (3) = 205.041, p <0.005). Conclusion: The results of this study show that the physiotherapy treatments made on agreed clinics in cases of osteoarthritis of the knee, are effective in significant reduction in the levels of pain and disability and in perception of overall improvement perception in patients with osteoarthritis of the Knee.

Fatores de prognóstico para os resultados de sucesso da fisioterapia multimodal em utentes com dor cervical crónica

RESUMO: Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.--------------- ABSTRACT:Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047-1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109-0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Curso clínico da dor lombar crónica após alta da fisioterapia : trajetórias de dor no follow-up aos quatro e seis meses

RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.-----------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047- 1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109- 0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Overstock and stock-out in Volkswagen Autoeuropa

The following work is a case study of overstock and stock-out problems at Volkswagen Autoeuropa (VWAE). It introduces the supply chain of Autoeuropa and specializes then on failures connected to inventory problems. Having a successful supply chain is important in a world where products become more and more similar as it can give to companies an edge over their competitors. The case shows three practices that VWAE uses to prevent and to overcome stock problems. Information was gathered by doing interviews with different managers, by analyzing the company’s key processes and by literature research related to the topics of supply chain management and flexibility in the supply chain. Three practices were further investigated: the use of alternative parts, support of the supplier and a rating system of suppliers. In the question section of this work the importance of flexibility and Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) when connected to supply chain management are explained. The described different practices are numerically analyzed and it is concluded that each practice brings both cost savings and the possibility of achieving target numbers to the company, showing the company’s flexibility to react to supply chain disturbances. Because of confidentiality reasons, persons in the case are fictionalized and numbers are wherever possible equalized to 100 in order to display true proportions.

The refinancing of Cimpor- Case study

The present case is about the refinancing of Cimpor, a highly profitable Portuguese cement group that encounters a set of obstacles in its debt restructuring. The case is intended to be used in a Corporate Finance class and is divided in three distinct parts: a case A which presents a detailed description of the internal and external events that increased Cimpor’s refinancing risk, a case B which informs the audience of the outcome of the refinancing process, and a Teaching Note with suggested questions and answers to be used in class. Key words:

Prevalence of neurocognitive disorders and depression in a Brazilian HIV population

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Combined antiretroviral therapy has enabled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) carriers to live longer. This increased life expectancy is associated with the occurrence of degenerative diseases, including HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND), which are diagnosed via a complex neuropsychological assessment. The International HIV Dementia Scale (IHDS) is a screening instrument validated in Brazil for use in the absence of neuropsychological evaluation. HIV patients are frequently diagnosed with depression. We aimed to determine the prevalence of neurocognitive impairment using the IHDS and depressive disorders using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D17), compare the IHDS performance with the performances on the Timed Gait Test (TGT), the Digit Symbol Coding Test (DS) and the Brazilian version of the Scale of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), and evaluate the association between the IHDS performance and clinical-demographic variables.METHODS:One hundred fourteen patients were evaluated in a cross-sectional study conducted in a public outpatient clinic for infectious diseases in Marília City, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected following consultation. Statistical analysis was performed in accordance with the nature and distribution of the data and hypotheses.RESULTS:According to the IHDS, 53.2% of the sampled patients were neuropsychologically impaired. According to the HAM-D17, 26.3% had depressive disorders. There were significant associations between the IHDS and the TGT and DS. Multiple regression analysis indicated that female gender, educational level, and cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) levels were significantly and independently associated with neurocognitive impairment.CONCLUSIONS:The prevalence of neurocognitive impairment according to the IHDS is high and associated with female gender, education level, and low CD4 levels.

Electroconvulsive therapy in treatment-resistant mania: case reports

Electroconvulsive therapy is known to be effective in the treatment of mood disorders, more specifically for depression and mania. Although a large body of evidence confirms the efficacy of electroconvulsive therapy in the treatment of mania, few prospective studies have been done to assess its effectiveness in treatment-resistant manic episodes. These case reports describe the initial results of a study that is being conducted to evaluate the efficacy of Electroconvulsive therapy among treatment-resistant bipolar patients. METHODS: Three manic patients (according to DSM-IV criteria) who were considered treatment-resistant underwent a series of 12 bilateral Electroconvulsive therapy sessions. Before the treatment and then weekly, they were evaluated with the following rating scales: Young Mania Rating Scale, Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and Clinical Global Impressions-Bipolar Version. RESULTS: The 3 patients showed a satisfactory response to Electroconvulsive therapy, although some differences in the course of response were observed. CONCLUSION: These case reports suggest that Electroconvulsive therapy needs further evaluation for the treatment of resistant bipolar patients.