Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate

While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.

Bridging the Faraoni and Selli oceanic anoxic events: late Hauterivian to early Aptian dysaerobic to anaerobic phases in the Tethys.

A detailed geochemical analysis was performed on the upper part of the Maiolica Formation in the Breggia (southern Switzerland) and Capriolo sections (northern Italy). The analysed sediments consist of well-bedded, partly siliceous, pelagic carbonate, which lodges numerous thin, dark and organic-rich layers. Stable-isotope, phosphorus, organic-carbon and a suite of redox-sensitive trace-element contents (RSTE: Mo, U, Co, V and As) were measured. The RSTE pattern and Corg:Ptot ratios indicate that most organic-rich layers were deposited under dysaerobic rather than anaerobic conditions and that latter conditions were likely restricted to short intervals in the latest Hauterivian, the early Barremian and the pre-Selli early Aptian. Correlations are both possible with organic-rich intervals in central Italy (the Gorgo a Cerbara section) and the Boreal Lower Saxony Basin, as well as with the facies and drowning pattern in the Helvetic segment of the northern Tethyan carbonate platform. Our data and correlations suggest that the latest Hauterivian witnessed the progressive installation of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys, which went along with the onset in sediment condensation, phosphogenesis and platform drowning on the northern Tethyan margin, and which culminated in the Faraoni anoxic episode. This episode is followed by further episodes of dysaerobic conditions in the Tethys and the Lower Saxony Basin, which became more frequent and progressively stronger in the late early Barremian. Platform drowning persisted and did not halt before the latest early Barremian. The late Barremian witnessed diminishing frequencies and intensities in dysaerobic conditions, which went along with the progressive installation of the Urgonian carbonate platform. Near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, the increasing density in dysaerobic episodes in the Tethyan and Lower Saxony Basins is paralleled by a change towards heterozoan carbonate production on the northern Tethyan shelf. The following return to more oxygenated conditions is correlated with the second phase of Urgonian platform growth and the period immediately preceding and corresponding to the Selli anoxic episode is characterised by renewed platform drowning and the change to heterozoan carbonate production. Changes towards more humid climate conditions were the likely cause for the repetitive installation of dys- to anaerobic conditions in the Tethyan and Boreal basins and the accompanying changes in the evolution of the carbonate platform towards heterozoan carbonate-producing ecosystems and platform drowning.

The National Audit Office uses OR to assess the value for money of public services

Supreme audit institutions (SAIs) have an important role in assessing value for money in the delivery of public services. Assessing value for money necessarily involves assessing counterfactuals: good value for money has been achieved if a policy could not reasonably have been delivered more efficiently, effectively, or economically. Operations research modelling has the potential to help in the assessment of these counterfactuals. However, is such modelling too arcane, complex, and technically burdensome for organisations that, like SAIs, operate in a time- and resource-constrained and politically charged environment? We report on three applications of modelling at the UK's SAI, the National Audit Office, in the context of studies on demand management in tax collection, end-of-life care, and health-care associated infections. In all cases, the models have featured in the audit reports and helped study teams come to a value-for-money judgment. We conclude that OR modelling is indeed a valuable addition to the value-for-money auditor's methodological tool box.

Co-ordinate single-cell expression of LEE4- and LEE5-encoded proteins of Escherichia coli O157:H7

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that can express a type III secretion system (TTSS) considered important for colonization and persistence in ruminants. E. coli O157:H7 strains have been shown to vary markedly in levels of protein secreted using the TTSS and this study has confirmed that a high secretion phenotype is more prevalent among isolates associated with human disease than isolates shed by healthy cattle. The variation in secretion levels is a consequence of heterogeneous expression, being dependent on the proportion of bacteria in a population that are actively engaged in protein secretion. This was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence and eGFP fusions that examined the expression of locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded factors in individual bacteria. In liquid media, the expression of EspA, tir::egfp, intimin, but not map::egfp were co-ordinated in a subpopulation of bacteria. In contrast to E. coli O157:H7, expression of tir::egfp in EPEC E2348/69 was equivalent in all bacteria although the same fusion exhibited variable expression when transformed into an E. coli O157:H7 background. An E. coli O157:H7 strain deleted for the LEE demonstrated weak but variable expression of tir::egfp indicating that the elements controlling the heterogeneous expression lie outside the LEE. The research also demonstrated the rapid induction of tir::egfp and map::egfp on contact with bovine epithelial cells. This control in E. coli O157:H7 may be required to limit exposure of key surface antigens, EspA, Tir and intimin during colonization of cattle but allow their rapid production on contact with bovine gastrointestinal epithelium at the terminal rectum.

Brill Greek, Adobe Arno Pro, Adobe Text/Brevier Greek typefaces

Typeface design: a series of collaborative projects commissioned by Adobe, Inc. and Brill to develop extensive polytonic Greek typefaces. The two Adobe typefaces can be seen as extension of previous research for the Garamond Premier Pro family (2005), and concludes a research theme started in 1998 with work for Adobe’s Minion Pro Greek. These typefaces together define the state of the art for text-intensive Greek typesetting for wide character set texts (from classical texts, to poetry, to essays, to prose). They serve both as exemplar for other developers, and as vehicles for developing the potential of Greek text typography, for example with the parallel inclusion of monotonic and polytonic characters, detailed localised punctuation options, fluid handling of case-conversion issues, and innovative options such as accented small caps (originally requested by bibliographers, and subsequently rolled out to a general user base). The Brill typeface (for the established academic publisher) has an exceptionally wide character set to cover several academic disciplines, and is intended to differentiate sufficiently from its partner Latin typeface, while maintaining a clear texture in both offset and low-resolution print-on-demand reproduction. This work involved substantial amounts of testing and modifying the design, especially of diacritics, to maintain clarity the readability of unfamiliar words. All together these typefaces form a study in how Greek typesetting meets contemporary typographic requirements, while resonating with historically accurate styles, where these are present. Significant research in printing archives helped to identify appropriate styles, as well as originate variants that are coherent stylistically, even when historical equivalents were absent.

Structure, conduct and the stochastic volatility of food markets: theory and empirics

The relationship between price volatility and competition is examined. Atheoretic, vector auto regressions on farm prices of wheat and retail prices of derivatives (flour, bread, pasta, bulgur and cookies) are compared to results from a dynamic, simultaneous-equations model with theory-based farm-to-retail linkages. Analytical results yield insights about numbers of firms and their impacts on demand- and supply-side multipliers, but the applications to Turkish time series (1988:1-1996:12) yield mixed results.

Do smart grids offer a new incentive for SME carbon reduction?

Collectively small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are significant energy users although many are unregulated by existing policies due to their low carbon emissions. Carbon reduction is often not a priority but smart grids may create a new opportunity. A smart grid will give electricity suppliers a picture of real-time energy flows and the opportunity for consumers to receive financial incentives for engaging in demand side management. As well as creating incentives for local carbon reduction, engaging SMEs with smart grids has potential for contributing to wider grid decarbonisation. Modelling of buildings, business activities and technology solutions is needed to identify opportunities for carbon reduction. The diversity of the SME sector complicates strategy development. SMEs are active in almost every business area and occupy the full range of property types. This paper reviews previous modelling work, exposing valuable data on floor space and energy consumption associated with different business activities. Limitations are seen with the age of this data and an inability to distinguish SME energy use. By modelling SME energy use, electrical loads are identified which could be shifted on demand, in a smart network. Initial analysis of consumption, not constrained by existing policies, identifies heating and cooling in retail and commercial offices as having potential for demand response. Hot water in hotel and catering and retail sectors may also be significant because of the energy storage potential. Areas to consider for energy efficiency schemes are also indicated.

The Golden Dawn's 'nationalist solution': explaining the rise of the far right in Greece

The book is concerned with the rise of the Greek Golden Dawn. Although most literature focuses on demand and supply-side explanations, this book progresses beyond the state of the art by examining the Golden Dawn as an outlier and focusing on political culture as an explanation for its dramatic rise.

Routing protocols and quality of services for security based applications using wireless video sensor networks

Wireless video sensor networks have been a hot topic in recent years; the monitoring capability is the central feature of the services offered by a wireless video sensor network can be classified into three major categories: monitoring, alerting, and information on-demand. These features have been applied to a large number of applications related to the environment (agriculture, water, forest and fire detection), military, buildings, health (elderly people and home monitoring), disaster relief, area and industrial monitoring. Security applications oriented toward critical infrastructures and disaster relief are very important applications that many countries have identified as critical in the near future. This paper aims to design a cross layer based protocol to provide the required quality of services for security related applications using wireless video sensor networks. Energy saving, delay and reliability for the delivered data are crucial in the proposed application. Simulation results show that the proposed cross layer based protocol offers a good performance in term of providing the required quality of services for the proposed application.

Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) scoping study: Annex 3 - Early warning system and risk assessment case studies

This report provides case studies of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) and risk assessments encompassing three main hazard types: drought; flood and cyclone. The case studies are taken from ten countries across three continents (focusing on Africa, South Asia and the Caribbean). The case studies have been developed to assist the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to prioritise areas for Early Warning System (EWS) related research under their ‘Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience’ (SHEAR) programme. The aim of these case studies is to ensure that DFID SHEAR research is informed by the views of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and communities engaged with Early Warning Systems and risk assessments (including community-based Early Warning Systems). The case studies highlight a number of challenges facing Early Warning Systems (EWSs). These challenges relate to financing; integration; responsibilities; community interpretation; politics; dissemination; accuracy; capacity and focus. The case studies summarise a number of priority areas for EWS related research: • Priority 1: Contextualising and localising early warning information • Priority 2: Climate proofing current EWSs • Priority 3: How best to sustain effective EWSs between hazard events? • Priority 4: Optimising the dissemination of risk and warning information • Priority 5: Governance and financing of EWSs • Priority 6: How to support EWSs under challenging circumstances • Priority 7: Improving EWSs through monitoring and evaluating the impact and effectiveness of those systems

Molecular design of a discrete chain-folding polyimide for controlled inkjet deposition of supramolecular polymers

A supramolecular polymer based upon two complementary polymer components is formed by sequential deposition from solution in THF, using a piezoelectric drop-on-demand inkjet printer. Highly efficient cycloaddition or ‘click’ chemistry afforded a well-defined poly(ethylene glycol) featuring chain-folding diimide end groups, which possesses greatly enhanced solubility in THF relative to earlier materials featuring random diimide sequences. Blending the new polyimide with a complementary poly(ethylene glycol) system bearing pyrene end groups (which bind to the chain-folding diimide units) overcomes the limited solubility encountered previously with chain-folding polyimides in inkjet printing applications. The solution state properties of the resulting polymer blend were assessed via viscometry to confirm the presence of a supramolecular polymer before depositing the two electronically complementary polymers by inkjet printing techniques. The novel materials so produced offer an insight into ways of controlling the properties of printed materials through tuning the structure of the polymer at the (supra)molecular level.

CDASH: a cloud-enabled program for structure solution from powder diffraction data

The simulated annealing approach to crystal structure determination from powder diffraction data, as implemented in the DASH program, is readily amenable to parallelization at the individual run level. Very large scale increases in speed of execution can be achieved by distributing individual DASH runs over a network of computers. The CDASH program delivers this by using scalable on-demand computing clusters built on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud service. By way of example, a 360 vCPU cluster returned the crystal structure of racemic ornidazole (Z0 = 3, 30 degrees of freedom) ca 40 times faster than a typical modern quad-core desktop CPU. Whilst used here specifically for DASH, this approach is of general applicability to other packages that are amenable to coarse-grained parallelism strategies.

El Niño 2015/2016: impact analysis of past El Niños

This is a DfID (Department for International Development) commissioned report on the impact of historical El Niño events on low- and middle-income countries across Africa and elsewhere. The report identifies El Niño events in the past 35 years and highlights regions and countries vulnerable to their impacts. The impacts on rainfall and temperature are broken down by season and country as the El Niño develops, peaks and decays and are represented in at-a-glance Impact Tables. The Impact Tables also include an extensive review of literature (e.g., peer-reviewed, grey literature and media reports) to identify potential socio-economic impacts in vulnerable sectors such as water, infrastructure, energy and health. The risk of such impacts are graded as high, medium or potential depending on the meteorological signal and the robustness of evidence available.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.