Aircraft Cost Modelling using the Genetic Causal Technique within a Systems Engineering Approach

The paper is primarily concerned with the modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost. The aim is to establish an integrated life cycle balanced design process through a systems engineering approach to interdisciplinary analysis and control. The cost modelling is achieved using the genetic causal approach that enforces product family categorisation and the subsequent generation of causal relationships between deterministic cost components and their design source. This utilises causal parametric cost drivers and the definition of the physical architecture from the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify product families. The paper presents applications to the overall aircraft design with a particular focus on the fuselage as a subsystem of the aircraft, including fuselage panels and localised detail, as well as engine nacelles. The higher level application to aircraft requirements and functional analysis is investigated and verified relative to life cycle design issues for the relationship between acquisition cost and Direct Operational Cost (DOC), for a range of both metal and composite subsystems. Maintenance is considered in some detail as an important contributor to DOC and life cycle cost. The lower level application to aircraft physical architecture is investigated and verified for the WBS of an engine nacelle, including a sequential build stage investigation of the materials, fabrication and assembly costs. The studies are then extended by investigating the acquisition cost of aircraft fuselages, including the recurring unit cost and the non-recurring design cost of the airframe sub-system. The systems costing methodology is facilitated by the genetic causal cost modeling technique as the latter is highly generic, interdisciplinary, flexible, multilevel and recursive in nature, and can be applied at the various analysis levels required of systems engineering. Therefore, the main contribution of paper is a methodology for applying systems engineering costing, supported by the genetic causal cost modeling approach, whether at a requirements, functional or physical level.

Cyanopolyynes in hot cores: modelling G305.2+0.2

We present results from a time-dependent gas-phase chemical model of a hot core based on the physical conditions of G305.2+0.2. While the cyanopolyyne HC3N has been observed in hot cores, the longer chained species, HC5N, HC7N and HC9N, have not been considered as the typical hot-core species. We present results which show that these species can be formed under hot core conditions. We discuss the important chemical reactions in this process and, in particular, show that their abundances are linked to the parent species acetylene which is evaporated from icy grain mantles. The cyanopolyynes show promise as ‘chemical clocks’ which may aid future observations in determining the age of hot core sources. The abundance of the larger cyanopolyynes increases and decreases over relatively short time-scales, ~10^2.5 yr. We present results from a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium statistical equilibrium excitation model as a series of density, temperature and column density dependent contour plots which show both the line intensities and several line ratios. These aid in the interpretation of spectral-line data, even when there is limited line information available. In particular, non-detections of HC5N and HC7N in Walsh et al. are analysed and discussed.

TDM modelling and evaluation of different domain transforms for LSI

Latent semantic indexing (LSI) is a popular technique used in information retrieval (IR) applications. This paper presents a novel evaluation strategy based on the use of image processing tools. The authors evaluate the use of the discrete cosine transform (DCT) and Cohen Daubechies Feauveau 9/7 (CDF 9/7) wavelet transform as a pre-processing step for the singular value decomposition (SVD) step of the LSI system. In addition, the effect of different threshold types on the search results is examined. The results show that accuracy can be increased by applying both transforms as a pre-processing step, with better performance for the hard-threshold function. The choice of the best threshold value is a key factor in the transform process. This paper also describes the most effective structure for the database to facilitate efficient searching in the LSI system.

Systematic Usage of Embedded Modelling Languages in Automated Model Transformation Chains

Annotation of programs using embedded Domain-Specific Languages (embedded DSLs), such as the program annotation facility for the Java programming language, is a well-known practice in computer science. In this paper we argue for and propose a specialized approach for the usage of embedded Domain-Specific Modelling Languages (embedded DSMLs) in Model-Driven Engineering (MDE) processes that in particular supports automated many-step model transformation chains. It can happen that information defined at some point, using an embedded DSML, is not required in the next immediate transformation step, but in a later one. We propose a new approach of model annotation enabling flexible many-step transformation chains. The approach utilizes a combination of embedded DSMLs, trace models and a megamodel. We demonstrate our approach based on an example MDE process and an industrial case study.

PLS modelling and fault detection on the Tennessee Eastman benchmark

This paper describes the application of multivariate regression techniques to the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process for modelling and fault detection. Two methods are applied : linear partial least squares, and a nonlinear variant of this procedure using a radial basis function inner relation. The performance of the RBF networks is enhanced through the use of a recently developed training algorithm which uses quasi-Newton optimization to ensure an efficient and parsimonious network; details of this algorithm can be found in this paper. The PLS and PLS/RBF methods are then used to create on-line inferential models of delayed process measurements. As these measurements relate to the final product composition, these models suggest that on-line statistical quality control analysis should be possible for this plant. The generation of `soft sensors' for these measurements has the further effect of introducing a redundant element into the system, redundancy which can then be used to generate a fault detection and isolation scheme for these sensors. This is achieved by arranging the sensors and models in a manner comparable to the dedicated estimator scheme of Clarke et al. 1975, IEEE Trans. Pero. Elect. Sys., AES-14R, 465-473. The effectiveness of this scheme is demonstrated on a series of simulated sensor and process faults, with full detection and isolation shown to be possible for sensor malfunctions, and detection feasible in the case of process faults. Suggestions for enhancing the diagnostic capacity in the latter case are covered towards the end of the paper.

Physical modelling of millimetre wave signal reflection from forward biased PIN diodes

This paper examines the DC power requirements of PIN diodes which, with suitable applied DC bias, have the potential to reflect or to permit transmission of millimetre wave energy through them by the process of inducing a semiconductor plasma layer in the i-region. The study is conducted using device level simulation of SOI and bulk PIN diodes and reflection modelling based on the Drude conduction model. We examined five diode lengths (60–140 µm) and seven diode thicknesses (4–100 µm). Simulation output for the diodes of varying thicknesses was subsequently used in reflection modelling to assess their performance for 100 GHz operation. It is shown that substantially high DC input power is required in order to induce near total reflection in SOI PIN diodes at 100 GHz. Thinner devices consume less DC power, but reflect less incident radiation for given input power. SOI diodes are shown to have improved carrier confinement compared with bulk diodes.

Modelling the Geometry of the Repeat Unit Cell of Three-Dimensional Weave Architectures,

The three-dimensional (3D) weaving process offers the ability to tailor the mechanical properties via design of the weave architecture. One repeat of the 3D woven fabric is represented by the unit cell. The model accepts basic weaver and material manufacturer data as inputs in order to calculate the geometric characteristics of the 3D woven unit cell. The specific weave architecture manufactured and subsequently modelled had an angle interlock type binding configuration. The modelled result was shown to have a close approximation compared to the experimentally measured values and highlighted the importance of the representation of the binder tow path.

Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

Improved Nonlinear PCA for Process Monitoring Using Support Vector Data Description

Nonlinear principal component analysis (PCA) based on neural networks has drawn significant attention as a monitoring tool for complex nonlinear processes, but there remains a difficulty with determining the optimal network topology. This paper exploits the advantages of the Fast Recursive Algorithm, where the number of nodes, the location of centres, and the weights between the hidden layer and the output layer can be identified simultaneously for the radial basis function (RBF) networks. The topology problem for the nonlinear PCA based on neural networks can thus be solved. Another problem with nonlinear PCA is that the derived nonlinear scores may not be statistically independent or follow a simple parametric distribution. This hinders its applications in process monitoring since the simplicity of applying predetermined probability distribution functions is lost. This paper proposes the use of a support vector data description and shows that transforming the nonlinear principal components into a feature space allows a simple statistical inference. Results from both simulated and industrial data confirm the efficacy of the proposed method for solving nonlinear principal component problems, compared with linear PCA and kernel PCA.

Automated nonlinear system modelling with multiple neural networks

This article discusses the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). It focuses on both structure uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, which have been widely explored in the literature of nonlinear system identification. The main contribution is that an integrated analytic framework is proposed for automated neural network structure selection, parameter identification and hysteresis network switching with guaranteed neural identification performance. First, an automated network structure selection procedure is proposed within a fixed time interval for a given network construction criterion. Then, the network parameter updating algorithm is proposed with guaranteed bounded identification error. To cope with structure uncertainty, a hysteresis strategy is proposed to enable neural identifier switching with guaranteed network performance along the switching process. Both theoretic analysis and a simulation example show the efficacy of the proposed method.

The inferential monitoring of the screw disturbance torque to predict process fluctuations in polymer extrusion

Polymer extrusion is one of the major methods of processing polymer materials and advanced process monitoring is important to ensure good product quality. However, commonly used process monitoring devices, e.g. temperature and pressure sensors, are limited in providing information on process dynamics inside an extruder barrel. Screw load torque dynamics, which may occur due to changes in solids conveying, melting, mixing, melt conveying, etc., are believed to be a useful indicator of process fluctuations inside the extruder barrel. However, practical measurement of the screw load torque is difficult to achieve. In this work, inferential monitoring of the screw load torque signal in an extruder was shown to be possible by monitoring the motor current (armature and/or field) and simulation studies were used to check the accuracy of the proposed method. The ability of this signal to aid identification and diagnosis of process issues was explored through an experimental investigation. Power spectral density and wavelet frequency analysis were implemented together with a covariance analysis. It was shown that the torque signal is dominated by the solid friction in the extruder and hence it did not correlate well with melting fluctuations. However, it is useful for online identification of solids conveying issues.

Estimation of Clarinet Reed Parameters by Inverse Modelling

Analysis of the acoustical functioning of musical instruments invariably involves the estimation of model parameters. The broad aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimation of clarinet reed parameters that are representative of actual playing conditions. This presents various challenges because of the di?culties of measuring the directly relevant variables without interfering with the control of the instrument. An inverse modelling approach is therefore proposed, in which the equations governing the sound generation mechanism of the clarinet
are employed in an optimisation procedure to determine the reed parameters from the mouthpiece pressure and volume ?ow signals. The underlying physical model captures most of the reed dynamics and is simple enough to be used in an inversion process. The optimisation procedure is ?rst tested by applying it to numerically synthesised signals, and then applied to mouthpiece signals acquired during notes blown by a human player. The proposed inverse modelling approach raises the possibility of revealing information about the way in which the embouchure-related reed parameters are controlled by the player, and also facilitates physics-based re-synthesis of clarinet sounds.

Modelling and fixed bed column adsorption of Cr(VI) onto orthophosphoric acid-activated lignin

The advantage of using an available and abundant residual biomass, such as lignin, as a raw material for activated carbons is that it provides additional economical interest to the technical studies. In the current investigation, a more complete understanding of adsorption of Cr(VI) from aqueous systems onto H PO -acid activated lignin has been achieved via microcolumns, which were operated under various process conditions. The practice of using microcolumn is appropriate for defining the adsorption parameters and for screening a large number of potential adsorbents. The effects of solution pH (2-8), initial metal ion concentration (0.483-1.981 mmol·L ), flow rate (1.0-3.1 cm ·min ), ionic strength (0.01-0.30 mmol·L ) and adsorbent mass (0.11-0.465 g) on Cr(VI) adsorption were studied by assessing the microcolumn breakthrough curve. The microcolumn data were fitted by the Thomas model, the modified Dose model and the BDST model. As expected, the adsorption capacity increased with initial Cr(VI) concentration. High linear flow rates, pH values and ionic strength led to early breakthrough of Cr(VI). The model constants obtained in this study can be used for the design of pilot scale adsorption process. © 2012 Chemical Industry and Engineering Society of China (CIESC) and Chemical Industry Press (CIP).

Modelling and Instrumentation of Stretch Blow Moulding

The injection stretch blow moulding process is used to manufacture PET containers used in the soft drinks and carbonated soft drinks industry. The process consists of a test tube like specimen known as a preform which is heated, stretch and blown into a mould to form the container. This research is focused on developing a validated simulation of the process thus enabling manufacturers to design their products in a virtual environment without the need to waste time, material and energy. The simulation has been developed using the commercial FEA package Abaqus and has been validated using state of the art data acquisition system consisting of measurements for preform temperature (inner and outer wall) using a device known as THERMOscan (Figure 1), stretch rod force and velocity, internal pressure and air temperature inside the preform using an instrumented stretch rod and the?exact?timing of when the preform touches the mould wall using contact sensors.? In addition, validation studies have also been performed by blowing a perform without a mould and using high sped imaging technology in cooperation with an advanced digital image correlation system (VIC 3D) to provided new quantitative information on the behaviour of PET during blowing.? The approach has resulted in a realistic simulation in terms of accurate input parameters, preform shape evolution and prediction of final properties.