Bayesian analysis of a mastitis control plan to investigate the influence of veterinary prior beliefs on clinical interpretation

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

The Effects of Superovulation Prior to Mating and Zinc Supplementation on Milk Yields in Etawah-Grade Does

Thirty six Etawah-grade does (BW ranged from 20.4 to 44.2 kg and age ranged from 2.5 to 7 years) were used to study the effects of superovulation prior to mating and zinc supplementation on milk yields. The experimental does were assigned into a randomized block design with a 2 x 3 factorial arrangement. The first factor was PMSG (pregnant mare serum gonadotrophin) injection with 2 levels (0 IU/kg BW [nonsuperovulation–NSO] and 15 IU/kg BW [Superovulation–SO]). The second factor was zinc concentration in the diet with 3 levels (40 mg/kg DM [Z-40], 60 mg/kg DM [Z-60], and 80 mg/kg DM [Z-80]). Intravaginal sponge (60 mg medroxyprogesterone acetate) was applied for 14 days to synchronize estrus cycle. Twenty four  hours prior to sponge removal, PMSG was injected  to  stimulate superovulation. After  sponge removal,  5 experimental does  were mixed with 1 buck for natural mating. During  pregnancy  the experimental does were fed and  raised in   individual stables. Udder volume  was measured every other week from weeks 12 to 21 of  pregnancy.  During lactation  (one week to  5 months post partum) kids were separated from the does, and   milk was harvested by hand milking. Milk samples were taken every other week for determination of milk quality. The results  indicated that  superovulation increased udder differential growth  by 80% (822.85 vs 1481.25 cm3/head), milk yield by  32% (567.14 vs 746.52 g/head/day).  Zinc concentration  increased udder differential growth and milk yield. Milk productions for does receiving 40, 60 and 80 mg/kg DM were 565.68, 737.88 and 666.92 g/day, respectively.It was concluded that  superovulation and zinc supplementation  increased milk  yield in Etawah Grade does. (Animal Production 6(2): 86-94 (2004) Key Words:  Superovulation, Zinc, Milk  Yield, Etawah-Grade

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.

Polymer nanocomposites based on P3OT, TPU and SWNT: preparation and characterization

Single walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) were incorporated in polymer nanocomposites based on poly(3-octylthiophene) (P3OT), thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) or a blend of them. Thermogravimetry demonstrated the success of the purification procedure employed in the chemical treatment of SWNTs prior to composite preparation. Stable dispersions of SWNTs in chloroform were obtained by non-covalent interactions with the dissolved polymers. Composites exhibited glass transitions, melting temperatures and heat of fusion which changed in relation to pure polymers. This behavior is discussed as associated to interactions between nanotubes and polymers. The conductivity at room temperature of the blend (TPU-P3OT) with SWNT is higher than the P3OT/SWNT composite.

ERP success: Does organisation size matter?

Organisations invest enormous sums of money in acquiring Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, presumably expecting positive impacts to the organisation and its functions. Despite the optimistic motives some ERP projects have reported nil or detrimental impacts. This paper studies the proposition that the size of an organisation (e.g. small, large) may have contributed to the differences in receiving benefits reported in prior studies in this domain. The alleged differences in organisational performance are empirically measured using a prior validated model, using five constructs and fortytwo sub-constructs. Information is gathered from three hundred and ten respondents representing twenty-seven public sector organisations. Results suggests that (1) larger organisations have received more benefits compared to small organisations, (2) small organisations demonstrated higher reliance on their ERP systems, (3) employment cohorts demonstrate significant differences in perceived benefits in small and large organisations.

Two main challenges in service description : Web service tunnel vision and semantic myopia

Through media such as newspapers, letterbox flyers, corporate brochures and television we are regularly confronted with descriptions for conventional (bricks 'n' mortar style) services. These representations vary in the terminology utilised, the depth of the description, the aspects of the service that are characterised and their applicability to candidate service requestors. Existing service catalogues (such as the Yellow Pages) provide little relief for service requestors from the burdensome task of discovering, comparing and substituting services. Add to this environment the rapidly evolving area of web services with its associated surfeit of standards, and the result is a considerably fragmented approach to the description of services. It leaves the reality of the Semantic Web somewhat clouded. --------- Let's consider service description briefly, before discussing our concerns with existing approaches to description. The act of describing is performed prior to advertising. This simple fact provides an interesting paradox as services cannot be described exactly before advertisement. This doesn't mean they can't be described comprehensively. By "exactly", we are referring to the fact that context provided by a service requestor (and their service needs) will alter the description of the service that is presented to the discoverer. For example, a service provider who operates a cinema wants to describe the price of their service. Let's say the advertised price is $15. They also want to state that a pensioner discount and a student discount is available which provides a 50% discount. A customer (i.e. service requestor) uses the cinema web site to purchase tickets online. They find the movie of their choice at a time that suits. However, its not until some context is provided by the requestor that the exact price is determined. The requestor might state that they are a pensioner. The same is applicable for a service requestor who purchases multiple tickets perhaps on behalf of other people. The disconnect between when the service is described and when a requestor provides context introduces challenges to the description process. A service provider would be ill-advised to offer independent descriptions that represent all the permutations possible for a single service. The descriptive effort would be prohibitive.

Why the “Big Deal” continues to persist

The advantages of bundling e-journals together into publisher collections include increased access to information for the subscribing institution’s clients, purchasing cost-effectiveness and streamlined workflows. Whilst cataloguing a consortial e-journal collection has its advantages, there are also various pitfalls and the author outlines efforts by the CAUL (Council of Australian University Libraries) Consortium libraries to further streamline this process, working in conjunction with major publishers. Despite the advantages that publisher collections provide, pressures to unbundle existing packages continue to build, fuelled by an ever-increasing selection of available electronic resources; decreases in, and competing demands upon, library budgets; the impact of currency fluctuations; and poor usage for an alarmingly high proportion of collection titles. Consortial perspectives on bundling and unbundling titles are discussed, including options for managing the addition of new titles to the bundle and why customising consortial collections currently does not work. Unbundling analyses carried out at Queensland University of Technology during 2006 to 2008 prior to the renewal of several major publisher collections are presented as further case studies which illustrate why the “big deal” continues to persist.

Tangible interfaces to explain Gaudi's use of ruled-surface geometries

This paper summarises the development of a machine-readable model series for explaining Gaudi's use of ruled surface geometry in the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona, Spain. The first part discusses the modeling methods underlying the columns of the cathedral and the techniques required to translate them into built structures. The second part discusses the design and development of a tangible machine-readable model to explain column-modeling methods interactively in educational contexts such as art exhibitions. It is designed to explain the principles underlying the column design by means of physical interaction without using mathematical terms or language.

Tensions, transisitions and triumphs : examining the transitional experience of fashion students between school and university

Joining any new community involves transition and adaptation. Just as we learn to adapt to different cultures when we choose to live abroad, so students learn the language and culture of an academic community in order to succeed within that environment. At the same time however, students bring with them individual learning styles and expectations, influenced by their prior experiences of learning and of life more generally. Some have excelled at school; others have come to fashion seeking something in which to excel for the first time. Commencing a degree in fashion design brings students into contact with peers and lecturers who share their passion, providing them with a community of practice which can be both supportive and at the same time intimidating.----- In Queensland where university level study in fashion is such a new phenomenon, few applicants have any depth of training in design when they apply to study fashion. Unlike disciplines such as Dance or Visual Art, where lecturers can expect a good level of skill upon entry to a degree program, we have to look for the potential evidenced in an applicant’s portfolio, much of which is untutored work that they have generated themselves in preparation for application. This means that many first year fashion students at QUT whilst very passionate about the idea of fashion design are often very naïve about the practice of fashion design, with limited knowledge of the history or cultural context of fashion and few of the technical skills needed to translate their ideas into three dimensional products.----- For teachers engaging with first year students in the design studios, it is critical to be cognizant of this mix of different experiences, expectations and emotions in order to design curricula and assessment that stretch and engage students without unduly increasing their sense of frustration and anxiety. This paper examines a first year project designed to provide an introduction to design process and to learning within a creative discipline. The lessons learnt provide a valuable and transferable resource for lecturers in a variety of art and design disciplines.

Landscape symphonies : gardening as a source of landscape architecture practice engaged with change

The notion of designing with change constitutes a fundamental and foundational theoretical premise for much of what constitutes landscape architecture, notably through engagement with ecology, particularly since the work of Ian McHarg in the 1960s and his key text Design with Nature. However, while most if not all texts in landscape architecture would cite this engagement of change theoretically, few go any further than citation, and when they do their methods seem fixated on utilising empirical, quantitative scientific tools for doing so, rather than the tools of design, in an architectural sense, as implied by the name of the discipline, landscape architecture.

Challenging 'best practice' subtropical design

Genuine sustainability would require that urban development provide net positive social and ecological gains to compensate for previous lost natural capital and carrying capacity. Thus far, green buildings do not contribute to net sustainability. While they reduce relative resource consumption, they consume vast quantities of materials, energy and water.i Moreover, they replace land and ecosystems with structures that, at best, ‘mimic’ ecosystems. Elsewhere, the author has proposed a‘sustainability standard’, where development would leave the ecology, as well as society, better off after construction than before.ii To meet this standard, a development would need to add natural and social capital beyond what existed prior to development. Positive DesignTM or Positive DevelopmentTM is that which expands both the ecological base (life support system) and the public estate (equitable access to means of survival). How to achieve this is discussed in Positive Development (Birkeland 2008). This paper examines how net positive gains can be achieved in a ubtropical as well as temperate environment.

Entrepreneurial intentions of women

Despite advances in gender equity, evidence suggests that the level of business ownership by males continues to be significantly higher than that offemales. Moreover, females, from an early age, have lower entrepreneurial intentions than males. This paper examines previous studies to determine the factors that have been shown to relate to lower entrepreneurial intentions in women, to identify areas where prior research has been inadequate or inconclusive, and to discuss how intentions models might be modified to better explain the lower level of female business start-ups. It was found that the lower level of intentions is related to a range of personal background and attitudinal variables, and these factors are critically examined in this review. It is suggested that future research should focus on role models, networks and life roles in order to better explain female entrepreneurial intentions.

The lens of ludic engagement : evaluating participation in interactive art installations

Designers and artists have integrated recent advances in interactive, tangible and ubiquitous computing technologies to create new forms of interactive environments in the domains of work, recreation, culture and leisure. Many designs of technology systems begin with the workplace in mind, and with function, ease of use, and efficiency high on the list of priorities. [1] These priorities do not fit well with works designed for an interactive art environment, where the aims are many, and where the focus on utility and functionality is to support a playful, ambiguous or even experimental experience for the participants. To evaluate such works requires an integration of art-criticism techniques with more recent Human Computer Interaction (HCI) methods, and an understanding of the different nature of engagement in these environments. This paper begins a process of mapping a set of priorities for amplifying engagement in interactive art installations. I first define the concept of ludic engagement and its usefulness as a lens for both design and evaluation in these settings. I then detail two fieldwork evaluations I conducted within two exhibitions of interactive artworks, and discuss their outcomes and the future directions of this research.