Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Gan Meʼir Georgii Weiganmeiri, in Academia Tubingensi Professoris : continens Institutionum hebraeae linguae per tabulas digestarum libros duos: quorum prior vocum absolutarum formationes; posterior earundem mutationes, solide & perfecte explicat, quibus cognitis, lector industrius de tota re grammatica & oratione hebræa facilime iudicare poterit

Text teilw. hebr. in hebr. Schr., teilw. lat.

Zevalin and BEAM (Z-BEAM) versus rituximab and BEAM (R-BEAM) conditioning chemotherapy prior to autologous stem cell transplantation in patients with mantle cell lymphoma.

Early relapse is common in patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) highlighting the unmet need for further improvement of therapeutic options for these patients. CD20 inhibition combined with induction chemotherapy as well as consolidation with high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) is increasingly considered cornerstones within current therapy algorithms of MCL whereas the role of radioimmunotherapy is unclear. This retrospective single center study compared 46 consecutive MCL patients receiving HDCT in first or second remission. Thirty-five patients had rituximab and BEAM (R-BEAM), and 11 patients received ibritumomab tiuxetan (Zevalin®), an Yttrium-90 labeled CD20 targeting antibody, prior to BEAM (Z-BEAM) followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT). We observed that the 5-year overall survival (OS) in the R-BEAM and Z-BEAM groups was 55% and 71% (p = 0.288), and the 4-year progression free survival (PFS) was 32% and 41%, respectively (p = 0.300). There were no treatment related deaths in both groups, and we observed no differences in toxicities, infection rates or engraftment. Our data suggest that the Z-BEAM conditioning regimen followed by ASCT is well tolerated, but was not associated with significantly improved survival compared to R-BEAM. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The mass-hierarchy and CP-violation discovery reach of the LBNO long-baseline neutrino experiment

The next generation neutrino observatory proposed by the LBNO collaboration will address fundamental questions in particle and astroparticle physics. The experiment consists of a far detector, in its first stage a 20 kt LAr double phase TPC and a magnetised iron calorimeter, situated at 2300 km from CERN and a near detector based on a highpressure argon gas TPC. The long baseline provides a unique opportunity to study neutrino flavour oscillations over their 1st and 2nd oscillation maxima exploring the L/E behaviour, and distinguishing effects arising from δCP and matter. In this paper we have reevaluated the physics potential of this setup for determining the mass hierarchy (MH) and discovering CP-violation (CPV), using a conventional neutrino beam from the CERN SPS with a power of 750 kW. We use conservative assumptions on the knowledge of oscillation parameter priors and systematic uncertainties. The impact of each systematic error and the precision of oscillation prior is shown. We demonstrate that the first stage of LBNO can determine unambiguously the MH to > 5δ C.L. over the whole phase space. We show that the statistical treatment of the experiment is of very high importance, resulting in the conclusion that LBNO has ~ 100% probability to determine the MH in at most 4-5 years of running. Since the knowledge of MH is indispensable to extract δCP from the data, the first LBNO phase can convincingly give evidence for CPV on the 3δ C.L. using today’s knowledge on oscillation parameters and realistic assumptions on the systematic uncertainties.

Twenty questions with noise: Bayes optimal policies for entropy loss

We consider the problem of twenty questions with noisy answers, in which we seek to find a target by repeatedly choosing a set, asking an oracle whether the target lies in this set, and obtaining an answer corrupted by noise. Starting with a prior distribution on the target's location, we seek to minimize the expected entropy of the posterior distribution. We formulate this problem as a dynamic program and show that any policy optimizing the one-step expected reduction in entropy is also optimal over the full horizon. Two such Bayes optimal policies are presented: one generalizes the probabilistic bisection policy due to Horstein and the other asks a deterministic set of questions. We study the structural properties of the latter, and illustrate its use in a computer vision application.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Dictionum Hebraicarum, quae universo sefer tehilim continentur, Syllabus geminus : Quorum prior radices & quae inde formantur, cum singulorum interpretatione ... ordine alphabetico complectitur; In usum eorum, qui ad linguae sanctae studium primum accedunt, contextus

a Paulo Tossano

A stereotaxic, population-averaged T1w ovine brain atlas including cerebral morphology and tissue volumes

Standard stereotaxic reference systems play a key role in human brain studies. Stereotaxic coordinate systems have also been developed for experimental animals including non-human primates, dogs, and rodents. However, they are lacking for other species being relevant in experimental neuroscience including sheep. Here, we present a spatial, unbiased ovine brain template with tissue probability maps (TPM) that offer a detailed stereotaxic reference frame for anatomical features and localization of brain areas, thereby enabling inter-individual and cross-study comparability. Three-dimensional data sets from healthy adult Merino sheep (Ovis orientalis aries, 12 ewes and 26 neutered rams) were acquired on a 1.5 T Philips MRI using a T1w sequence. Data were averaged by linear and non-linear registration algorithms. Moreover, animals were subjected to detailed brain volume analysis including examinations with respect to body weight (BW), age, and sex. The created T1w brain template provides an appropriate population-averaged ovine brain anatomy in a spatial standard coordinate system. Additionally, TPM for gray (GM) and white (WM) matter as well as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) classification enabled automatic prior-based tissue segmentation using statistical parametric mapping (SPM). Overall, a positive correlation of GM volume and BW explained about 15% of the variance of GM while a positive correlation between WM and age was found. Absolute tissue volume differences were not detected, indeed ewes showed significantly more GM per bodyweight as compared to neutered rams. The created framework including spatial brain template and TPM represent a useful tool for unbiased automatic image preprocessing and morphological characterization in sheep. Therefore, the reported results may serve as a starting point for further experimental and/or translational research aiming at in vivo analysis in this species.