The Vietnamese Corporate Bond Market An Early Exploration into the 1992-1999 Period

This paper summarizes the situation of corporate bonds in Vietnam for the period 1992-1999. Corporate bonds are new in the transitional economy, but the capital shortage and operational inefficiency of the banking sector and financial system would likely drive the bond market up in the future. The paper also discusses some conditions for the Vietnamese bond market to further develop, based on the facts and observation.

Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics

Recent empirical findings suggest that the long-run dependence in U.S. stock market volatility is best described by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. The present study complements this existing time-series-based evidence by comparing the risk-neutralized option pricing distributions from various ARCH-type formulations. Utilizing a panel data set consisting of newly created exchange traded long-term equity anticipation securities, or leaps, on the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index with maturity times ranging up to three years, we find that the degree of mean reversion in the volatility process implicit in these prices is best described by a Fractionally Integrated EGARCH (FIEGARCH) model. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets

Assuming that daily spot exchange rates follow a martingale process, we derive the implied time series process for the vector of 30-day forward rate forecast errors from using weekly data. The conditional second moment matrix of this vector is modelled as a multivariate generalized ARCH process. The estimated model is used to test the hypothesis that the risk premium is a linear function of the conditional variances and covariances as suggested by the standard asset pricing theory literature. Little supportt is found for this theory; instead lagged changes in the forward rate appear to be correlated with the 'risk premium.'. © 1990.

Latent Stick-Breaking Processes.

We develop a model for stochastic processes with random marginal distributions. Our model relies on a stick-breaking construction for the marginal distribution of the process, and introduces dependence across locations by using a latent Gaussian copula model as the mechanism for selecting the atoms. The resulting latent stick-breaking process (LaSBP) induces a random partition of the index space, with points closer in space having a higher probability of being in the same cluster. We develop an efficient and straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for computation and discuss applications in financial econometrics and ecology. This article has supplementary material online.

Designing Climate Mitigation Policy

This paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs, damage valuation, policy instrument choice, technological innovation, and international climate policy. We begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be, both under cost-effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or Pigouvian emissions pricing. The remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation, issues in policy instrument choice, complementary technology policy, and international policy architectures.

Numerical solutions of certain nonlinear models in European options on a distributed computing environment

Financial modelling in the area of option pricing involves the understanding of the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk in investment. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. In turn, analysis tools rely on fast numerical algorithms for the solution of financial mathematical models. There are many different financial activities apart from shares buy/sell activities. The main aim of this chapter is to discuss a distributed algorithm for the numerical solution of a European option. Both linear and non-linear cases are considered. The algorithm is based on the concept of the Laplace transform and its numerical inverse. The scalability of the algorithm is examined. Numerical tests are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm for financial analysis. Time dependent functions for volatility and interest rates are also discussed. Applications of the algorithm to non-linear Black-Scholes equation where the volatility and the interest rate are functions of the option value are included. Some qualitative results of the convergence behaviour of the algorithm is examined. This chapter also examines the various computational issues of the Laplace transformation method in terms of distributed computing. The idea of using a two-level temporal mesh in order to achieve distributed computation along the temporal axis is introduced. Finally, the chapter ends with some conclusions.

Water privatisation

The article examines the expansion of private water companies since 1989 the withdrawal from developing countries from 2003 onwards, and the economic impact of privatisation. The analysis is set in the context of the historical development of water services in the north and the south, showing that the role of private water companies since the start of the 20th century has been historically limited and exceptional. The impact of water privatisation is considered in relation to the issues of investment, prices, and efficiency, drawing on empirical evidence from the north and developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Particular attention is given to France and the UK, where private water companies, for different reasons, are most established. The evidence from both north and south shows systematic underinvestment, monopoly pricing, regulatory gaming, and no significant efficiency differences between public and private sector operators. In conclusion, the article identifies institutional policies including fiscal constraints and lending conditionalities as key drivers of privatisation, and questions whether these can sustain privatisation in the water sector where historical experience indicates it is an inappropriate solution.

Public-public partnerships (PUPs) in water

Water operators need to be efficient, accountable, honest public institutions providing a universal service. Many water services however lack the institutional strength, the human resources, the technical expertise and equipment, or the financial or managerial capacity to provide these services. They need support to develop these capacities. The vast majority of water operators in the world are in the public sector – 90% of all major cities are served by such bodies. This means that the largest pool of experience and expertise, and the great majority of examples of good practice and sound institutions, are to be found in existing public sector water operators. Because they are public sector, however, they do not have any natural commercial incentive to provide international support. Their incentive stems from solidarity, not profit. Since 1990, however, the policies of donors and development banks have focussed on the private companies and their incentives. The vast resources of the public sector have been overlooked, even blocked by pro-private policies. Out of sight of these global policy-makers, however, a growing number of public sector water companies have been engaged, in a great variety of ways, in helping others develop the capacity to be effective and accountable public services. These supportive arrangements are now called 'public-public partnerships' (PUPs). A public-public partnership (PUP) is simply a collaboration between two or more public authorities or organisations, based on solidarity, to improve the capacity and effectiveness of one partner in providing public water or sanitation services. They have been described as: “a peer relationship forged around common values and objectives, which exclude profit-seeking”.1 Neither partner expects a commercial profit, directly or indirectly. This makes PUPs very different from the public–private partnerships (PPPs) which have been promoted by the international financial institutions (IFIs) like the World Bank. The problems of PPPs have been examined in a number of reports. A great advantage of PUPs is that they avoid the risks of such partnerships: transaction costs, contract failure, renegotiation, the complexities of regulation, commercial opportunism, monopoly pricing, commercial secrecy, currency risk, and lack of public legitimacy.2 PUPs are not merely an abstract concept. The list in the annexe to this paper includes over 130 PUPs in around 70 countries. This means that far more countries have hosted PUPs than host PPPs in water – according to a report from PPIAF in December 2008, there are only 44 countries with private participation in water. These PUPs cover a period of over 20 years, and been used in all regions of the world. The earliest date to the 1980s, when the Yokohama Waterworks Bureau first started partnerships to help train staff in other Asian countries. Many of the PUP projects have been initiated in the last few years, a result of the growing recognition of PUPs as a tool for achieving improvements in public water management. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the typical objectives of PUPs; the different forms of PUPs and partners involved; a series of case studies of actual PUPs; and an examination of the recent WOPs initiative. It then offers recommendations for future development of PUPs.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

The determinants of business performance of estate agency in England and Wales

Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.

Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing

Long-range dependence in volatility is one of the most prominent examples in financial market research involving universal power laws. Its characterization has recently spurred attempts to provide some explanations of the underlying mechanism. This paper contributes to this recent line of research by analyzing a simple market fraction asset pricing model with two types of traders---fundamentalists who trade on the price deviation from estimated fundamental value and trend followers whose conditional mean and variance of the trend are updated through a geometric learning process. Our analysis shows that agent heterogeneity, risk-adjusted trend chasing through the geometric learning process, and the interplay of noisy fundamental and demand processes and the underlying deterministic dynamics can be the source of power-law distributed fluctuations. In particular, the noisy demand plays an important role in the generation of insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) on returns, while the significant decaying AC patterns of the absolute returns and squared returns are more influenced by the noisy fundamental process. A statistical analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations is conducted to characterize the decay rate. Realistic estimates of the power-law decay indices and the (FI)GARCH parameters are presented.

Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations

This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations.

An architecture for agent-enhanced network service provisioning through SLA negotiation

This paper focuses on two main areas. We first investigate various aspects of subscription and session Service Level Agreement (SLA) issues such as negotiating and setting up network services with Quality of Service (QoS) and pricing preferences. We then introduce an agent-enhanced service architecture that facilitates these services. A prototype system consisting of real-time agents that represent various network stakeholders was developed. A novel approach is presented where the agent system is allowed to communicate with a simulated network. This allows functional and dynamic behaviour of the network to be investigated under various agent-supported scenarios. This paper also highlights the effects of SLA negotiation and dynamic pricing in a competitive multi-operator networks environment.

Commonality in Returns, Order Flows, and Liquidity in the Greek Stock Market

Using a unique high-frequency data-set on a comprehensive sample of Greek blue-chip stocks, spanning from September 2003 through March 2006, this note assesses the extent and role of commonality in returns, order flows (OFs), and liquidity. It also formally models aggregate equity returns in terms of aggregate equity OF, in an effort to clarify OF's importance in explaining returns for the Athens Exchange market. Almost a quarter of the daily returns in the FTSE/ATHEX20 index is explained by aggregate own OF. In a second step, using principal components and canonical correlation analyses, we document substantial common movements in returns, OFs, and liquidity, both on a market-wide basis and on an individual security basis. These results emphasize that asset pricing and liquidity cannot be analyzed in isolation from each other.