Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Individual or population approaches to the promotion of physical activity... is that the question?

A recent editorial raised several issues about the role of exercise physiologists in the fight against physical inactivity in Australia. This opinion piece argues that we must strive to work together in multidisciplinary groups to improve our understanding of the mechanisms which link PA and health and the ways to persuade people to become more active. Prescription of specific exercise programs supported by exercise physiologists is one strategy for helping to activate Australians, but it is unlikely that that this atone will have a significant impact on population health. If we are to activate the 10,000,000 Australians who are currently insufficiently active for health benefit, we will need the combined efforts of governments, NGOs, teachers, planners, marketing experts, veterinarians, and ALL our health professionals, to combine forces to activate Australia. (c) 2006 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinematics, substructure and luminosity-weighted dynamics of six nearby galaxy groups

We have redefined group membership of six southern galaxy groups in the local universe (mean cz < 2000 km s(-1)) based on new redshift measurements from our recently acquired Anglo-Australian Telescope 2dF spectra. For each group, we investigate member galaxy kinematics, substructure, luminosity functions and luminosity-weighted dynamics. Our calculations confirm that the group sizes, virial masses and luminosities cover the range expected for galaxy groups, except that the luminosity of NGC 4038 is boosted by the central starburst merger pair. We find that a combination of kinematical, substructural and dynamical techniques can reliably distinguish loose, unvirialized groups from compact, dynamically relaxed groups. Applying these techniques, we find that Dorado, NGC 4038 and NGC 4697 are unvirialized, whereas NGC 681, NGC 1400 and NGC 5084 are dynamically relaxed.

Transmission mode and distribution of parasites among groups of the social lizard Egernia stokesii

We explored patterns of infection of three apicomplexan blood parasites with different transmission mechanisms in 46 social groups across seven populations of the Australian lizard, Egernia stokesii. There was higher aggregation of infections within social groups for Hemolivia, transmitted by ticks, and Schellackia, either tick-transmitted or directly transmitted from mother to offspring, than for Plasmodium, with more mobile dipteran vectors. Prevalence was not related to group size, proximity to other groups or spatial overlap with adjacent groups for any of the parasites. However, for Hemolivia, groups with higher levels of relatedness among adults had higher parasite prevalence. Living in social groups leads to higher risk of infection for parasites with low transmission mobility. An unanswered question is why so few lizard species tolerate these risks to form stable social aggregations.

Effect of mobility on violence in a bi-communal population

We develop a multi-agent based model to simulate a population which comprises of two ethnic groups and a peacekeeping force. We investigate the effects of different strategies for civilian movement to the resulting violence in this bi-communal population. Specifically, we compare and contrast random and race-based migration strategies. Race-based migration leads the formation of clusters. Previous work in this area has shown that same-race clustering instigates violent behavior in otherwise passive segments of the population. Our findings confirm this. Furthermore, we show that in settings where only one of the two races adopts race-based migration it is a winning strategy especially in violently predisposed populations. On the other hand, in relatively peaceful settings clustering is a restricting factor which causes the race that adopts it to drift into annihilation. Finally, we show that when race-based migration is adopted as a strategy by both ethnic groups it results in peaceful co-existence even in the most violently predisposed populations.

Ametropia and ocular biometry in a UK university student population

Purpose. The prevalence of myopia is known to vary with age, ethnicity, level of education, and socioeconomic status, with a high prevalence reported in university students and in people from East Asian countries. This study determines the prevalence of ametropia in a mixed ethnicity U.K. university student population and compares associated ocular biometric measures. Methods. Refractive error and related ocular component data were collected on 373 first-year U.K. undergraduate students (mean age = 19.55 years ± 2.99, range = 17-30 years) at the start of the academic year at Aston University, Birmingham, and the University of Bradford, West Yorkshire. The ethnic variation of the students was as follows: white 38.9%, British Asian 58.2%, Chinese 2.1%, and black 0.8%. Noncycloplegic refractive error was measured with an infrared open-field autorefractor, the Shin-Nippon NVision-K 5001 (Shin Nippon, Ryusyo Industrial Co. Ltd, Osaka, Japan). Myopia was defined as a mean spherical equivalent (MSE) less than or equal to -0.50 D. Hyperopia was defined as an MSE greater than or equal to +0.50 D. Axial length, corneal curvature, and anterior chamber depth were measured using the Zeiss IOLMaster (Carl Zeiss, Jena, GmBH). Results. The analysis was carried out only for white and British Asian groups. The overall distribution of refractive error exhibited leptokurtosis, and prevalence levels were similar for white and British Asian (the predominant ethnic group) students across each ametropic group: myopia (50% vs. 53.4%), hyperopia (18.8% vs. 17.3%), and emmetropia (31.2% vs. 29.3%). There were no significant differences in the distribution of ametropia and biometric components between white and British Asian samples. Conclusion. The absence of a significant difference in refractive error and ocular components between white and British Asian students exposed to the same educational system is of interest. However, it is clear that a further study incorporating formal epidemiologic methods of analysis is required to address adequately the recent proposal that juvenile myopia develops principally from myopiagenic environments and is relatively independent of ethnicity.

The role of stochasticity in an information-optimal neural population code

In this paper we consider the optimisation of Shannon mutual information (MI) in the context of two model neural systems The first is a stochastic pooling network (population) of McCulloch-Pitts (MP) type neurons (logical threshold units) subject to stochastic forcing; the second is (in a rate coding paradigm) a population of neurons that each displays Poisson statistics (the so called 'Poisson neuron'). The mutual information is optimised as a function of a parameter that characterises the 'noise level'-in the MP array this parameter is the standard deviation of the noise, in the population of Poisson neurons it is the window length used to determine the spike count. In both systems we find that the emergent neural architecture and; hence, code that maximises the MI is strongly influenced by the noise level. Low noise levels leads to a heterogeneous distribution of neural parameters (diversity), whereas, medium to high noise levels result in the clustering of neural parameters into distinct groups that can be interpreted as subpopulations In both cases the number of subpopulations increases with a decrease in noise level. Our results suggest that subpopulations are a generic feature of an information optimal neural population.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

The Aston Medication Adherence Study:mapping the adherence patterns of an inner-city population

Background: The Aston Medication Adherence Study was designed to examine non-adherence to prescribed medicines within an inner-city population using general practice (GP) prescribing data. Objective: To examine non-adherence patterns to prescribed oralmedications within three chronic disease states and to compare differences in adherence levels between various patient groups to assist the routine identification of low adherence amongst patients within the Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust (HoBtPCT). Setting: Patients within the area covered by HoBtPCT (England) prescribed medication for dyslipidaemia, type-2 diabetes and hypothyroidism, between 2000 and 2010 inclusively. HoBtPCT's population was disproportionately young,with seventy per cent of residents fromBlack and Minority Ethnic groups. Method: Systematic computational analysis of all medication issue data from 76 GP surgeries dichotomised patients into two groups (adherent and non-adherent) for each pharmacotherapeutic agent within the treatment groups. Dichotomised groupings were further analysed by recorded patient demographics to identify predictors of lower adherence levels. Results were compared to an analysis of a self-reportmeasure of adherence [using the Modified Morisky Scale© (MMAS-8)] and clinical value data (cholesterol values) from GP surgery records. Main outcome: Adherence levels for different patient demographics, for patients within specific longterm treatment groups. Results: Analysis within all three groups showed that for patients with the following characteristics, adherence levels were statistically lower than for others; patients: younger than 60 years of age; whose religion is coded as "Islam"; whose ethnicity is coded as one of the Asian groupings or as "Caribbean", "Other Black" and "African"; whose primary language is coded as "Urdu" or "Bengali"; and whose postcodes indicate that they live within the most socioeconomically deprived areas of HoBtPCT. Statistically significant correlations between adherence status and results from the selfreport measure of adherence and of clinical value data analysis were found. Conclusion: Using data fromGP prescribing systems, a computerised tool to calculate individual adherence levels for oral pharmacotherapy for the treatment of diabetes, dyslipidaemia and hypothyroidism has been developed.The tool has been used to establish nonadherence levels within the three treatment groups and the demographic characteristics indicative of lower adherence levels, which in turn will enable the targeting of interventional support within HoBtPCT. © Koninklijke Nederlandse Maatschappij ter bevordering der Pharmacie 2013.

The normal optic nerve variations in an optometric population:Possible ocular and systemic influences

Early detection of glaucoma relies on a detailed knowledge of how the normal optic nerve (ONH) varies within the population. The purpose of this study focused on two main areas; 1. To explore the optic nerve head appearance in the normal optometric population and compare the south Asian (principally Pakistani) with the European white population, correcting for possible ocular and non-ocular influences in a multiple regression model. The main findings were: • The optic discs of the South Asian (SA) and White European (WE) populations were not statistically different in size. The SA group possessed discs with increased cupping and thinner neuro-retinal rims (NRR) compared with the WE group. The SA group also demonstrated a more vertically oval shape than the WE population. These differences were significant at the p<0.01 level. • The upper limits of inter-eye asymmetry were: ≤0.2 for cup to disc area ratio, and 3mmHg for intra-ocular pressure (IOP) for both ethnic groups and this did not increase with age. IOP asymmetry did not vary with gender, ethnicity or a family history of glaucoma and was independent of ONH asymmetry. ONH and IOP asymmetry are therefore independent risk factors when screening for glaucoma for both ethnic groups. 2. To investigate the validity of the ISNT rule: inferior> superior> nasal> temporal NRR thickness in the optometric population. The main findings were: • As disc size increased the disc become rounder and less vertically oval in shape. Vertically oval discs had thicker superior and inferior NRRs and thinner nasal and temporal NRRs compared with rounder disc shapes due to cup shape being independent of disc shape. Vertically oval discs were therefore more likely to obey the ISNT rule than larger rounder discs. • The ISNT rule has a low adherence in our sample of normal eyes (5.7%). However, by removing the nasal sector to become the IST rule, 74.5% of normal eyes obeyed. SA eyes and female gender were more likely to obey the ISNT rule due to increased disc ovality. The IST rule is independent of disc shape and therefore more suitable for assessing discs from both ethnic backgrounds. Obeying the ISNT rule or IST rule was not related to disc or cup size.

Common variants of the TCF7L2 gene are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a UK-resident South Asian population

Background - Recent studies have implicated variants of the transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) gene in genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus in several different populations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variants of this gene are also risk factors for type 2 diabetes development in a UK-resident South Asian cohort of Punjabi ancestry. Methods - We genotyped four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of TCF7L2 (rs7901695, rs7903146, rs11196205 and rs12255372) in 831 subjects with diabetes and 437 control subjects. Results - The minor allele of each variant was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes; the greatest risk of developing the disease was conferred by rs7903146, with an allelic odds ratio (OR) of 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11 – 1.56, p = 1.96 × 10-3). For each variant, disease risk associated with homozygosity for the minor allele was greater than that for heterozygotes, with the exception of rs12255372. To determine the effect on the observed associations of including young control subjects in our data set, we reanalysed the data using subsets of the control group defined by different minimum age thresholds. Increasing the minimum age of our control subjects resulted in a corresponding increase in OR for all variants of the gene (p ≤ 1.04 × 10-7). Conclusion - Our results support recent findings that TCF7L2 is an important genetic risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in multiple ethnic groups.

Development and testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A composite indicator to measure social vulnerability in the Jamaican elderly population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Could Relatedness Help Explain Why Individuals Lead in Bottlenose Dolphin Groups?

In many species, particular individuals consistently lead group travel. While benefits to followers often are relatively obvious, including access to resources, benefits to leaders are often less obvious. This is especially true for species that feed on patchy mobile resources where all group members may locate prey simultaneously and food intake likely decreases with increasing group size. Leaders in highly complex habitats, however, could provide access to foraging resources for less informed relatives, thereby gaining indirect benefits by helping kin. Recently, leadership has been documented in a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) where direct benefits to leaders appear unlikely. To test whether leaders could benefit indirectly we examined relatedness between leader-follower pairs and compared these levels to pairs who associated but did not have leader-follower relationship (neither ever led the other). We found the average relatedness value for leader-follower pairs was greater than expected based on chance. The same was not found when examining non leader-follower pairs. Additionally, relatedness for leader-follower pairs was positively correlated with association index values, but no correlation was found for this measure in non leader-follower pairs. Interestingly, haplotypes were not frequently shared between leader-follower pairs (25%). Together, these results suggest that bottlenose dolphin leaders have the opportunity to gain indirect benefits by leading relatives. These findings provide a potential mechanism for the maintenance of leadership in a highly dynamic fission-fusion population with few obvious direct benefits to leaders.

Are marginalized women being left behind? A population-based study of institutional deliveries in Karnataka, India

Background While India has made significant progress in reducing maternal mortality, attaining further declines will require increased skilled birth attendance and institutional delivery among marginalized and difficult to reach populations. Methods A population-based survey was carried out among 16 randomly selected rural villages in rural Mysore District in Karnataka, India between August and September 2008. All households in selected villages were enumerated and women with children 6 years of age or younger underwent an interviewer-administered questionnaire on antenatal care and institutional delivery. Results Institutional deliveries in rural areas of Mysore District increased from 51% to 70% between 2002 and 2008. While increasing numbers of women were accessing antenatal care and delivering in hospitals, large disparities were found in uptake of these services among different castes. Mothers belonging to general castes were almost twice as likely to have an institutional birth as compared to scheduled castes and tribes. Mothers belonging to other backward caste or general castes had 1.8 times higher odds (95% CI: 1.21, 2.89) of having an institutional delivery as compared to scheduled castes and tribes. In multivariable analysis, which adjusted for inter- and intra-village variance, Below Poverty Line status, caste, and receiving antenatal care were all associated with institutional delivery. Conclusion The results of the study suggest that while the Indian Government has made significant progress in increasing antenatal care and institutional deliveries among rural populations, further success in lowering maternal mortality will likely hinge on the success of NRHM programs focused on serving marginalized groups. Health interventions which target SC/ST may also have to address both perceived and actual stigma and discrimination, in addition to providing needed services. Strategies for overcoming these barriers may include sensitization of healthcare workers, targeted health education and outreach, and culturally appropriate community-level interventions. Addressing the needs of these communities will be critical to achieving Millennium Development Goal Five by 2015.

Development and Testing of the Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI): A Composite Indicator to Measure Social Vulnerability in the Jamaican Elderly Population

Over the last two decades social vulnerability has emerged as a major area of study, with increasing attention to the study of vulnerable populations. Generally, the elderly are among the most vulnerable members of any society, and widespread population aging has led to greater focus on elderly vulnerability. However, the absence of a valid and practical measure constrains the ability of policy-makers to address this issue in a comprehensive way. This study developed a composite indicator, The Elderly Social Vulnerability Index (ESVI), and used it to undertake a comparative analysis of the availability of support for elderly Jamaicans based on their access to human, material and social resources. The results of the ESVI indicated that while the elderly are more vulnerable overall, certain segments of the population appear to be at greater risk. Females had consistently lower scores than males, and the oldest-old had the highest scores of all groups of older persons. Vulnerability scores also varied according to place of residence, with more rural parishes having higher scores than their urban counterparts. These findings support the political economy framework which locates disadvantage in old age within political and ideological structures. The findings also point to the pervasiveness and persistence of gender inequality as argued by feminist theories of aging. Based on the results of the study it is clear that there is a need for policies that target specific population segments, in addition to universal policies that could make the experience of old age less challenging for the majority of older persons. Overall, the ESVI has displayed usefulness as a tool for theoretical analysis and demonstrated its potential as a policy instrument to assist decision-makers in determining where to target their efforts as they seek to address the issue of social vulnerability in old age. Data for this study came from the 2001 population and housing census of Jamaica, with multiple imputation for missing data. The index was derived from the linear aggregation of three equally weighted domains, comprised of eleven unweighted indicators which were normalized using z-scores. Indicators were selected based on theoretical relevance and data availability.