Forecasting models of retail rents

The authors model retail rents in the United Kingdom with use of vector-autoregressive and time-series models. Two retail rent series are used, compiled by LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker, and the emphasis is on forecasting. The results suggest that the use of the vector-autoregression and time-series models in this paper can pick up important features of the data that are useful for forecasting purposes. The relative forecasting performance of the models appears to be subject to the length of the forecast time-horizon. The results also show that the variables which were appropriate for inclusion in the vector-autoregression systems differ between the two rent series, suggesting that the structure of optimal models for predicting retail rents could be specific to the rent index used. Ex ante forecasts from our time-series suggest that both LaSalle Investment Management and CB Hillier Parker real retail rents will exhibit an annual growth rate above their long-term mean.

A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Bronze Age human ecodynamics in the Humber estuary

For much of lowland Britain during the Holocene one important factor in determining environmental change was sea level fluctuation. A net rise of circa 20 m, within an oscillating short term picture of transgression and regression, caused significant short to medium term challenges for people exploiting those resources. During transgression phases estuarine creek systems extended landwards, and during the final transgression phase, widespread sedimentation took place, allowing for the development of saltmarshes on tidal flats. In later prehistory the exploitation of lowlands and estuarine wetlands was predominantly for fishing, waterfowling and pastoral use, and this paper explores the human ecodynamics of the intertidal zone in the Humber estuary during the Bronze Age. Results of the Humber Wetlands Project's recent estuarine survey, will be used to argue that following a marine transgression circa 1500 cal BC, the foreshore was fully exploited in terms of food procurement. Furthermore the construction of hurdle trackways allowed access across expanding tidal creek systems to be maintained. This not only shows continued use of the most productive environments, and provides evidence for selective use of woodland, but also the continued exploitation of the intertidal zone may have played a role in the evolution of social and political structures in this area during the Bronze Age.

Imagining multicultural London: containment and excess in snatch

Snatch (Guy Ritchie, 2000) is a comic-book gangster film that can be seen to represent the backlash against perceived notions of political correctness in what is effectively a public-schoolboy fantasy of working-class life in East London. However, the film also delineates the limits of this backlash in its depiction of minorities as either contained or excess. This is highlighted through the comic-book genre itself as well as the characterization. Thus this article explores the tension between the genre, representation and Jewish identity.

Asymmetric information, credit market condition, and entrepreneurial finance

The issue of imperfect information plays a much more important role in financing “informationally opaque” small businesses than in financing large companies.1 This chapter examines the asymmetric information issue in entrepreneurial finance from two perspectives: the effects of relationship lending and the impacts of credit market concentration on entrepreneurial financial behavior. These two perspectives are strongly linked to each other via the asymmetric information issue in entrepreneurial finance. Existing literature has recognized the important role played by relationship lending in alleviating the problem of asymmetric information. However, mixed empirical results have been reported. For example, it has been found that the development of relationship lending can improve the availability of finance for small businesses borrowers (Petersen and Rajan, 1994) and reduce the costs of finance (Berger and Udell, 1995). Meanwhile, with monopoly power, banks may extract rents, in terms of charging higher-than-market interest rates, from small businesscustomers who have very concentrated banking relationships (Ongena and Smith, 2001). In addition, both favorable and unfavorable effects of credit market concentration on financing small businesses have been acknowledged. Small business borrowers may have to pay a higher-than-market price on loans (Degryse and Ongena, 2005) and are more likely to be financially constrained (Cetorelli, 2004) than in competitive markets. On the other hand, empirical studies have shown that market concentration create a strong motive for lenders to invest in private information from small business customers, and therefore a concentrated market is more efficient in terms of private information acquisition (Han et al., 2009b). The objective of this chapter is to investigate, by reviewing existing literature, the role played by relationship lending and the effects of market concentration on financing entrepreneurial businesses that are supposed to be informationally opaque. In the first section we review literature on the important role played by asymmetric information in entrepreneurial finance from two perspectives: asymmetric information and relationship lending, and the theoretical modeling of asymmetric information. Then we examine the relationship between capital market conditions and entrepreneurial finance and attempt to answer two questions: Why is the capital market condition important for entrepreneurial finance? and What are the effects of capital market conditions on entrepreneurial financial behavior in terms of discouraged borrowers, cash holding, and the availability and costs of finance?

Otherworlds: fantasy and history in medieval literature

This book offers a new perspective on the otherworlds of medieval literature. These fantastical realms are among the most memorable places in medieval writing, by turns beautiful and monstrous, alluring and terrifying. Passing over a river or sea, or entering into a hollow hill, heroes come upon strange and magical realms. These places are often very beautiful, filled with sweet music and adorned with precious stones and rich materials. There is often no darkness, time may pass at a different pace, and the people who dwell there are usually supernatural. Sometimes such a place is exactly what it appears to be-the land of heart's desire-but, the otherworld can also have a sinister side, trapping humans and keeping them there against their will. Otherworlds: Fantasy and History in Medieval Literature takes a fresh look at how medieval writers understood these places and why they found them so compelling. It focuses on texts from England, but places this material in the broader context of literary production in medieval Britain and Ireland. The narratives examined in this book tell a rather surprising story about medieval notions of these fantastical places. Otherworlds are actually a lot less 'other' than they might initially seem. Authors often use the idea of the otherworld to comment on very serious topics. It is not unusual for otherworld depictions to address political issues in the historical world. Most intriguing of all are those texts where locations in the real world are re-imagined as otherworlds. The regions on which this book focuses, Britain, Ireland and the surrounding islands, prove particularly susceptible to this characterization.

Small-Scale Farmers Land Use and Socioeconomic Situation in the Mount Elgon District in Northwestern Kenya : A Minor Field Study - Combined Field Mapping and Interview

This Minor Field Study was carried out during November and December in 2011 in the Mount Elgon District in Western Kenya. The objective was to examine nine small-scale farming household´s land use and socioeconomic situation when they have joined a non-governmental organization (NGO) project, which specifically targets small-scale farming households to improve land use system and socioeconomic situation by the extension of soil and water conservation measures. The survey has worked along three integral examinations methods which are mapping and processing data using GIS, semi structured interviews and literature studies.   This study has adopted a theoretical approach referred to as political ecology, in which landesque capital is a central concept. The result shows that all farmers, except one, have issues with land degradation. However, the extent of the problem and also implemented sustainable soil and water conservation measures were diverse among the farmers. The main causes of this can both be linked to how the farmers themselves utilized their farmland and how impacts from the climate change have modified the terms of the farmers working conditions. These factors have consequently resulted in impacts on the informants’ socioeconomic conditions. Furthermore it was also registered that social and economic elements, in some cases, were the causes of how the farmers manage their farmland. The farmer who had no significant problem with soil erosion had invested in trees and opportunities to irrigate the farmland. In addition, it was also recorded that certain farmers had invested in particular soil and water conservation measures without any significant result. This was probably due to the time span these land measures cover before they start to generate revenue.  The outcome of this study has traced how global, national and local elements exist in a context when it comes to the conditions of the farmers´ land use and their socioeconomic situation. The farmers atMt.Elgon are thereby a component of a wider context when they are both contributory to their socioeconomic situation, mainly due to their land management, and also exposed to core-periphery relationships on which the farmers themselves have no influence.

‘Moving on’ : Violence, wellbeing and questions about violence in antenatal care encounters. A qualitative study with Somali-born refugees in Sweden

Background Somali-born women constitute one of the largest groups of childbearing refugee women in Sweden after more than two decades of political violence in Somalia. In Sweden, these women encounter antenatal care that includes routine questions about violence being asked. The aim of the study was to explore how Somali-born women understand and relate to violence and wellbeing during their migration transition and their views on being approached with questions about violence in Swedish antenatal care. Method Qualitative interviews (22) with Somali-born women (17) living in Sweden were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. Findings A balancing actbetween keeping private life private and the new welfare system was identified, where the midwife's questions about violence were met with hesitance. The midwife was, however, considered a resource for access to support services in the new society. A focus on pragmatic strategies to move on in life, rather than dwelling on potential experiences of violence and related traumas, was prominent. Social networks, spiritual faith and motherhood were crucial for regaining coherence in the aftermath of war. Dialogue and mutual adjustments were identified as strategies used to overcome power tensions in intimate relationships undergoing transition. Conclusions If confidentiality and links between violence and health are explained and clarified during the care encounter, screening for violence can be more beneficial in relation to Somali-born women. The focus on “moving on” and rationality indicates strength and access to alternative resources, but needs to be balanced against risks for hidden needs in care encounters. A care environment with continuity of care and trustful relationships enhances possibilities for the midwife to balance these dual perspectives and identify potential needs. Collaborations between Somali communities, maternity care and social service providers can contribute with support to families in transition and bridge gaps to formal social and care services.

Too Many Bad Cooks Spoiling the Broth? Effectiveness of NGOs in Addressing Child Labour in El Salvador

The reaction of the first world to the persevering plight of a large part of the third world varies. In response to the sometimes glaring disparities, many international organizations and multinational corporations have recently adopted a pro-development rhetoric with relation to the problem of global poverty. However, the rhetoric rarely translates into action. As David Bacon discusses, leaders of corporations and organizations now tend to conclude their speeches by expressing a desire to reduce the suffering of the third world. However, when it comes to agreeing on specific concessions that could indeed improve the world-wide economic situation, first world countries are reluctant to act. A good example of this type of behavior is the current negotiation of the WTO, the “development round of Doha,” in which the United States along with the European Union pressure countries of the developing South to open up their markets, while at the same time refusing to remove or even decrease their own agricultural subsidies. The first world civil society observes the behavior of international organizations and western based multinational corporations as ineffectual. Taking the matter in its own hands, especially in the past couple of decades, this civil society has created a countless number of development-oriented nongovernmental organizations. These are supposed to compensate for the lack of action by international organizations. Development NGOs are believed to be more locally responsive as well as free of business or political considerations in choosing their strategies, and thus generally more efficient than IOs. However, if they really were how they are alleged to be, the problems of the third world would already be ameliorated by a significant amount, if not completely eradicated. Do development-NGOs indeed possess the characteristics that they claim to possess? What is their real affect on human rights? And how effective are they in their work?

Beyond the Threshold: Life in the New Russia

Amanda Sprang spent nine months, from September of 1995 to May of 1996, studying at Colby College's program in St. Petersburg, Russia. Through contacts made during previous trips to Russia in middle and high school, Amanda was able to quickly rekindle her old friendships and make new ones with many young Russians from different backgrounds. The following work is a collection of twelve essays about life in the New Russia. The essays are framed by a foreword and an epilogue that help place the entire work in a historical context. Although the theme of each essay emerges from a particular incident, within every story Amanda has addressed numerous topics relating to Russian life in today’s changing society. Her first essay, “Art Klinika," takes place in an avant-garde night club in St. Petersburg, and includes a brief yet impressionable, encounter with three young Russian men. “The Birthday Party” recalls a wild evening at the home of her close friend, showing how the Russians greet special occasions. Both the third and fourth essays take place in Moscow, where Amanda returns to visit old friends. These two essays portray the lives of the new economic elite in comparison with the average citizen, as well as show how young Russians face the new challenges that greet them. "Politics Russian Style" recalls a political rally in St. Petersburg, and attempts to shed light on the wacky political world of an infant democracy. Chapters Six through Ten take place away from the western cities of St. Petersburg and Moscow, as Amanda brings us to the cold, mysterious land of Siberia in the dead of winter. She recounts her five day train ride with a retired, high-powered, Communist party official, her experiences in the provincial city of Irkutsk, and a brief trip to a Buddhist monastery and, later, an excursion to Lake Baikal. Back in St. Petersburg, Chapter Eleven gives a humorous account of a ski trip with several Russian friends. Amanda finishes her work with her final chapter, “The Dacha," which describes a weekend spent at a Russian country home with her friend's family.

Um estudo da gênese das dynamic capabilities: o caso da tecnologia bancária no Brasil

Este trabalho analisa o desenvolvimento de dynamic capabilities em um contexto de turbulência institucional, diferente das condições em que esta perspectiva teórica costuma ser estudada. É feito um estudo de caso histórico e processual que analisa o surgimento das Dynamic Capabilities nos bancos brasileiros, a partir do desenvolvimento da tecnologia bancária que se deu entre os anos 1960 e 1990. Baseando-se nas proposições da Estratégia que analisam as vantagens competitivas das empresas através de seus recursos, conhecimentos e Dynamic Capabilities, é construído um framework com o qual são analisados diversos depoimentos dados ao livro “Tecnologia bancária no Brasil: uma história de conquistas, uma visão de futuro” (FONSECA; MEIRELLES; DINIZ, 2010) e em entrevistas feitas para este trabalho. Os depoimentos mostram que os bancos fizeram fortes investimentos em tecnologia a partir da reforma financeira de 1964, época em que se iniciou uma sequência de períodos com características próprias do ponto de vista institucional. Conforme as condições mudavam a cada período, os bancos também mudavam seu processo de informatização. No início, os projetos eram executados ad hoc, sob o comando direto dos líderes dos bancos. Com o tempo, à medida que a tecnologia evoluía, a infraestrutura tecnológica crescia e surgiam turbulências institucionais, os bancos progressivamente desenvolveram parcerias entre si e com fornecedores locais, descentralizaram a área de tecnologia, tornaram-se mais flexíveis, fortaleceram a governança corporativa e adotaram uma série de rotinas para cuidar da informática, o que levou ao desenvolvimento gradual das microfundações das Dynamic Capabilties nesses períodos. Em meados dos anos 1990 ocorreram a estabilização institucional e a abertura da economia à concorrência estrangeira, e assim o país colocou-se nas condições que a perspectiva teórica adotada considera ideais para que as Dynamic Capabilities sejam fontes de vantagem competitiva. Os bancos brasileiros mostraram-se preparados para enfrentar essa nova fase, o que é uma evidência de que eles haviam desenvolvido Dynamic Capabilities nas décadas precedentes, sendo que parte desse desenvolvimento podia ser atribuído às turbulências institucionais que eles haviam enfrentado.

The gay subject in business and its discursive formation: an exploration on power, knowledge and sexuality

Issues related to the reality of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) individuals are being incorporated into institutional and social discourses, and show the challenges that must be overcome towards citizenship. The inclusion of gay rights in the domain of institutions like the United Nations and the Brazilian Secretariat of Human Rights are a response to broader movements that places the gay subject as an important topic of debate in the social-political sphere. In this scenario, some institutions deserve close attention from researchers related to gay issues, the business environment being a good example. In this domain, diversity has become an important topic of debate between scholars, where the question of sexual identity in most cases does not appear. The literature that actually focuses on the theme is explored through approaches that are not able to break with universalisms and a normatized vocabulary. Therefore, this research explores discursive structures related to sexuality and examines the meanings construed throughout these structures as described by gay individuals working in business. Furthermore, it investigates patterns of discursive normative structures and consequential challenges faced by gay people in the working environment, and also complements the current debate both in the socio-political sphere and in academic reality on LGBT challenges. The Foucauldian notions of discourse, knowledge and power, and the main concepts of queer theory are incorporated to the analysis, as well as concepts related to the politics of post-colonial sexuality, subordination, and hegemonic forces, together with role of reflexivity in modernity and its impacts on secularized mental structures. The research design takes a phenomenological approach and bases its knowledge claim on a participatory perspective, where the sample chosen for data collection consisted of gay individuals working in the business environment, aiming at generate categories of meanings through the description of their experiences.

Isolated capital cities and misgovernance: theory and evidence

Motivated by a novel stylized fact { countries with isolated capital cities display worse quality of governance { we provide a framework of endogenous institutional choice based on the idea that elites are constrained by the threat of rebellion, and that this threat is rendered less e ective by distance from the seat of political power. In established democracies, the threat of insurgencies is not a binding constraint, and the model predicts no correlation between isolated capitals and misgovernance. In contrast, a correlation emerges in equilibrium in the case of autocracies. Causality runs both ways: broader power sharing (associated with better governance) means that any rents have to be shared more broadly, hence the elite has less of an incentive to protect its position by isolating the capital city; conversely, a more isolated capital city allows the elite to appropriate a larger share of output, so the costs of better governance for the elite, in terms of rents that would have to be shared, are larger. We show evidence that this pattern holds true robustly in the data. We also show that isolated capitals are associated with less power sharing, a larger income premium enjoyed by capital city inhabitants, and lower levels of military spending by ruling elites, as predicted by the theory.

Electoral control in the presence of gridlocks

This article presents a game-theoretic partisan model of voting and political bargaining. In a two-period setup, voters ¯rst elect an executive incumbent and the legislators from a pool of candidates belonging to di®erent parties. Once elected, the executive and the legislature bargain over a budget. Party origin and a relevant parameter of the economy, the state of the world, in°uence the bargaining cost, such that political gridlocks may occur. At the end of the ¯rst period voters observe the outcome of bargaining but do not observe the true estate of the world, and decide whether or not to reelect the same parties for the Executive and the Legislature. The model con¯rms the very recent literature by showing that voters tend to have more °exible reelection criteria when they believe the true state of the world is likely to be unfavorable. On the other hand, when voters believe the true state of the world is likely to be favorable, they become more demanding in order to reelect the incumbents. In particular, there will be government shutdown with positive probability in equilibrium. Gridlocks occur due to the imperfect information of voters and they constitute indeed an information revelation mechanism that improves electoral control in the second period.

Fiscal adjustment, conditionality and politics in IMF programs

A common feature in programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the use of conditionalities, macroeconomic and structural measures that a requesting country should adopt to obtain an assistance package. The objective of this work is to conduct an empirical analysis of the economic and political determinants of such conditionalities. In particular, our main contribution consists in the development of a new measure of conditionality, fiscal adjustment, and its comparison with the most used in the literature, the number of conditions. We choose fiscal adjustment because it is an adequate proxy for program austerity, since its implementation carries economic and political costs. In the empirical exercise, we use data from 184 programs in the period of 1999 and 2012, and estimate how our two measures of conditionalities respond to the economic and political factors. Our results suggest that they are quite different. The main determinant of the number of conditions is the political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders, the members of G5. On the other hand, the main determinant of fiscal adjustment is the size of the government fiscal deficit. Finally, we did not find correlation between the size of fiscal adjustment and the number of conditions. These results suggest that the analysis of the content of IMF programs should take into account the different measures of agreed conditionality.