Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.

Predicting the occurrence of alate aphids in Brassicaceae

The objective of this work was to predict the occurrence of alates of Brevicoryne brassicae, Lipaphis erysimi, and Myzus persicae (Hemiptera, Aphididae) in Brassicaceae. The alate aphids were collected in yellow water traps from July 1997 to August 2005. Aphid population peaks were predicted using a degree‑day model. The meteorological factors, temperature, air relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine hours, were used to provide precision indexes to evaluate the best predictor for the date of the first capture of alate aphids by the traps. The degree‑day model indicated that the peak population of the evaluated aphid species can be predicted using one of the following biofix dates: January 1st, June 1st, and the date of the first capture of the alate aphid species by the yellow water traps. The best predictor of B. brassicae occurrence is the number of days with minimum temperature >15°C, and of L. erysimi and M. persicae, the number of days with rainfall occurrence.

Decreasing mortality and changing patterns of causes of death in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among HIV-infected persons is decreasing, and causes of death are changing. Classification of deaths is hampered because of low autopsy rates, frequent deaths outside of hospitals, and shortcomings of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) coding. METHODS: We studied mortality among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants (1988-2010) and causes of death using the Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) protocol (2005-2009). Furthermore, we linked the SHCS data to the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) cause of death registry. RESULTS: AIDS-related mortality peaked in 1992 [11.0/100 person-years (PY)] and decreased to 0.144/100 PY (2006); non-AIDS-related mortality ranged between 1.74 (1993) and 0.776/100 PY (2006); mortality of unknown cause ranged between 2.33 and 0.206/100 PY. From 2005 to 2009, 459 of 9053 participants (5.1%) died. Underlying causes of deaths were: non-AIDS malignancies [total, 85 (19%) of 446 deceased persons with known hepatitis C virus (HCV) status; HCV-negative persons, 59 (24%); HCV-coinfected persons, 26 (13%)]; AIDS [73 (16%); 50 (21%); 23 (11%)]; liver failure [67 (15%); 12 (5%); 55 (27%)]; non-AIDS infections [42 (9%); 13 (5%); 29 (14%)]; substance use [31 (7%); 9 (4%); 22 (11%)]; suicide [28 (6%); 17 (7%), 11 (6%)]; myocardial infarction [28 (6%); 24 (10%), 4 (2%)]. Characteristics of deceased persons differed in 2005 vs. 2009: median age (45 vs. 49 years, respectively); median CD4 count (257 vs. 321 cells/μL, respectively); the percentage of individuals who were antiretroviral therapy-naïve (13 vs. 5%, respectively); the percentage of deaths that were AIDS-related (23 vs. 9%, respectively); and the percentage of deaths from non-AIDS-related malignancies (13 vs. 24%, respectively). Concordance in the classification of deaths was 72% between CoDe and ICD-10 coding in the SHCS; and 60% between the SHCS and the SNC registry. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in HIV-positive persons decreased to 1.33/100 PY in 2010. Hepatitis B or C virus coinfections increased the risk of death. Between 2005 and 2009, 84% of deaths were non-AIDS-related. Causes of deaths varied according to data source and coding system.

Cannabidiol protects against hepatic ischemia/reperfusion injury by attenuating inflammatory signaling and response, oxidative/nitrative stress, and cell death.

Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) is a pivotal mechanism of liver damage after liver transplantation or hepatic surgery. We have investigated the effects of cannabidiol (CBD), the nonpsychotropic constituent of marijuana, in a mouse model of hepatic I/R injury. I/R triggered time-dependent increases/changes in markers of liver injury (serum transaminases), hepatic oxidative/nitrative stress (4-hydroxy-2-nonenal, nitrotyrosine content/staining, and gp91phox and inducible nitric oxide synthase mRNA), mitochondrial dysfunction (decreased complex I activity), inflammation (tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), cyclooxygenase 2, macrophage inflammatory protein-1α/2, intercellular adhesion molecule 1 mRNA levels; tissue neutrophil infiltration; nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) activation), stress signaling (p38MAPK and JNK), and cell death (DNA fragmentation, PARP activity, and TUNEL). CBD significantly reduced the extent of liver inflammation, oxidative/nitrative stress, and cell death and also attenuated the bacterial endotoxin-triggered NF-κB activation and TNF-α production in isolated Kupffer cells, likewise the adhesion molecule expression in primary human liver sinusoidal endothelial cells stimulated with TNF-α and attachment of human neutrophils to the activated endothelium. These protective effects were preserved in CB(2) knockout mice and were not prevented by CB(1/2) antagonists in vitro. Thus, CBD may represent a novel, protective strategy against I/R injury by attenuating key inflammatory pathways and oxidative/nitrative tissue injury, independent of classical CB(1/2) receptors.

Neuronal death in the development of the vertebrate central nervous system

Neuronal death occurs naturally in the development of the vertebrate central nervous system, deleting large numbers of neurons at the time when afferent and efferent connections are being formed. It is these that regulate it, by means of anterograde and retrograde survival signals that depend on trophic molecules and electrical activity. Possible roles include the regulation of neuronal numbers (numerical matching) and the elimination of axonal targeting errors.

Computational analysis of the genetic and environmental contributions to disease-related human phenotypes: From predicting adverse lipid response of HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to genome-wide association studies of cardiovascular and lipid related disorders

Genetic variants influence the risk to develop certain diseases or give rise to differences in drug response. Recent progresses in cost-effective, high-throughput genome-wide techniques, such as microarrays measuring Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), have facilitated genotyping of large clinical and population cohorts. Combining the massive genotypic data with measurements of phenotypic traits allows for the determination of genetic differences that explain, at least in part, the phenotypic variations within a population. So far, models combining the most significant variants can only explain a small fraction of the variance, indicating the limitations of current models. In particular, researchers have only begun to address the possibility of interactions between genotypes and the environment. Elucidating the contributions of such interactions is a difficult task because of the large number of genetic as well as possible environmental factors.In this thesis, I worked on several projects within this context. My first and main project was the identification of possible SNP-environment interactions, where the phenotypes were serum lipid levels of patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) treated with antiretroviral therapy. Here the genotypes consisted of a limited set of SNPs in candidate genes relevant for lipid transport and metabolism. The environmental variables were the specific combinations of drugs given to each patient over the treatment period. My work explored bioinformatic and statistical approaches to relate patients' lipid responses to these SNPs, drugs and, importantly, their interactions. The goal of this project was to improve our understanding and to explore the possibility of predicting dyslipidemia, a well-known adverse drug reaction of antiretroviral therapy. Specifically, I quantified how much of the variance in lipid profiles could be explained by the host genetic variants, the administered drugs and SNP-drug interactions and assessed the predictive power of these features on lipid responses. Using cross-validation stratified by patients, we could not validate our hypothesis that models that select a subset of SNP-drug interactions in a principled way have better predictive power than the control models using "random" subsets. Nevertheless, all models tested containing SNP and/or drug terms, exhibited significant predictive power (as compared to a random predictor) and explained a sizable proportion of variance, in the patient stratified cross-validation context. Importantly, the model containing stepwise selected SNP terms showed higher capacity to predict triglyceride levels than a model containing randomly selected SNPs. Dyslipidemia is a complex trait for which many factors remain to be discovered, thus missing from the data, and possibly explaining the limitations of our analysis. In particular, the interactions of drugs with SNPs selected from the set of candidate genes likely have small effect sizes which we were unable to detect in a sample of the present size (<800 patients).In the second part of my thesis, I performed genome-wide association studies within the Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus). I have been involved in several international projects to identify SNPs that are associated with various traits, such as serum calcium, body mass index, two-hour glucose levels, as well as metabolic syndrome and its components. These phenotypes are all related to major human health issues, such as cardiovascular disease. I applied statistical methods to detect new variants associated with these phenotypes, contributing to the identification of new genetic loci that may lead to new insights into the genetic basis of these traits. This kind of research will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these pathologies, a better evaluation of disease risk, the identification of new therapeutic leads and may ultimately lead to the realization of "personalized" medicine.

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Predicting rapeseed oil content with near-infrared spectroscopy

The objective of this work was to establish a calibration equation and to estimate the efficiency of near-infrared reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy for evaluating rapeseed oil content in Southern Brazil. Spectral data from 124 half-sib families were correlated with oil contents determined by the chemical method. The accuracy of the equation was verified by coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.92, error of calibration (SEC) of 0.78, and error of performance (SEP) of 1.22. The oil content of ten genotypes, which were not included in the calibration with NIR, was similar to the one obtained by the standard chemical method. NIR spectroscopy is adequate to differentiate oil content of rapeseed genotypes.

Predicting soil erosion using Rusle and NDVI time series from TM Landsat 5

The objective of this work was to evaluate the seasonal variation of soil cover and rainfall erosivity, and their influences on the revised universal soil loss equation (Rusle), in order to estimate watershed soil losses in a temporal scale. Twenty-two TM Landsat 5 images from 1986 to 2009 were used to estimate soil use and management factor (C factor). A corresponding rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) was considered for each image, and the other factors were obtained using the standard Rusle method. Estimated soil losses were grouped into classes and ranged from 0.13 Mg ha-1 on May 24, 2009 (dry season) to 62.0 Mg ha-1 on March 11, 2007 (rainy season). In these dates, maximum losses in the watershed were 2.2 and 781.5 Mg ha-1 , respectively. Mean annual soil loss in the watershed was 109.5 Mg ha-1 , but the central area, with a loss of nearly 300.0 Mg ha-1 , was characterized as a site of high water-erosion risk. The use of C factor obtained from remote sensing data, associated to corresponding R factor, was fundamental to evaluate the soil erosion estimated by the Rusle in different seasons, unlike of other studies which keep these factors constant throughout time.

Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models

The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks) - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days), chick age (days), and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs). The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.

Hour of birth as a prognostic factor for perinatal death.

The analysis of the 220,540 births and 2152 perinatal deaths recorded in Switzerland between 1979 and 1981 showed a variation of perinatal mortality rates (PMR) according to the hour of birth. The PMR for babies born between 4 pm and 2 am was 12 per 1000, contrasting with a figure of 8.4 per 1000 for babies born between 2 am and 4 pm. This pattern, which was fairly constant throughout the week, was characterised by a slow and steady increase from the very early morning, reaching a maximum in the late evening. There was also an hour-to-hour variation in the proportion of babies born weighing less than 2500 g, with a maximum in the evening and a less pronounced peak in the morning: the mortality rates by birthweight were raised only in the evening. Since the availability of hospital staff and equipment also follows a circadian rhythm, the variation in PMR may be related to a circadian rhythm of quality of care or possibly to chronobiological or selection factors.

The DNA damage response to adeno-associated virus : centrosome overduplication and induction of cell death independently of the spindle checkpoint

Summary: Adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV2) is a small virus containing single-stranded DNA of approximately 4.7kb in size. Both ends of the viral genome are flanked with inverted terminal repeat sequences (ITRs), which serve as primers for viral replication. Previous work in our laboratory has shown that AAV2 DNA with ultraviolet radiation-generated crosslinks (UV-AAV2) provokes a DNA damage response in the host cell by mimicking a stalled replication fork. Infection of cells with UV-AAV2 leads to a p53-and Chk1-mediated cell cycle arrest at the G2/M border of the cell cycle. However, tumour cells lacking the tumour suppressor protein p53 cannot sustain this arrest and enter a prolonged impaired mitosis, the outcome of which is cell death. The aim of my thesis was to investigate how UV-inactivated AAV2 kilts p53-deficient cancer cells. I found that the UV-AAV2-induced DNA damage signalling induces centriole overduplication in infected cells. The virus is able to uncouple the centriole duplication cycle from the cell cycle, leading to amplified centrosome numbers. Chk1 colocalises with centrosomes in the infected cells and the centrosome overduplication is dependent on the presence of Chk1, as well as on the activities of ATR and Cdk kinases and on the G2 arrest. The UV-AAV2-induced DNA damage signalling inhibits the degradation of cyclin B 1 and securin by the anaphase promoting complex, suggesting that the spindle checkpoint is activated in these mitotic cells. Interference with the spindle checkpoint components Mad2 and BubR1 revealed that the UV-AAV2-provoked mitotic catastrophe occurs independently of spindle checkpoint function, This work shows that, in the p53 deficient cells, UV-AAV2 triggers mitotic catastrophe associated with a dramatic Chk1-dependent overduplication of centrioles and the consequent formation of multiple spindle poles in mitosis. Résumé Le virus associé à l'adénovirus type 2 (AAV2) est un petit virus contenant un simple brin d'ADN d'environ 4.7kb. Des expériences antérieures dans notre laboratoire ont montré que les liens intramoléculaires sur l'ADN de AAV2 provoqués paz l'irradiation aux ultraviolets (UV) ressemblent à une fourche de réplication bloquée, ce qui provoque une réponse aux dommages à l'ADN dans la cellule hôte. L'infection des cellules avec UV-AAV2 résulte en un arrêt du cycle cellulaire à la transition G2/M entraîné par les protéines ATR et Chk1. Cependant, les cellules tumorales auxquelles il manque le suppresseur de tumeur p53 ne peuvent pas tenir cet arrêt et entrent dans une mitose anormale et prolongée qui se terminera par la mort cellulaire. Le but de ma thèse était d'étudier comment l'AAV2 inactivé par l'irradiation UV tue les cellules cancéreuses n'ayant pas p53. Je montre ici que le signal de dommages à l'ADN induit par UV-AAV2 génère une surduplication des centrioles dans les cellules infectées. Le virus est capable de dissocier le cycle de duplication du centriole du cycle cellulaire ce qui crée un nombre amplifié de centrosomes. Chk1 est co-localisé avec le centrosome dans les cellules infectées et la swduplication du centrosome est dépendante de la présence de Chk1, de l'activité des kinases ATR et Cdk et de l'arrêt en G2 de la cellule. Le signal d'ADN endommagé induit par UV-AAV2 réprime la dégradation des protéines cycline B1 et securine par le complexe promoteur de l'anaphase (APC), ce qui suggère que le point de contrôle du fuseau mitotique est activé dans ces cellules en mitose. L'étude d'interférence avec des éléments du point de contrôle du fuseau mitotique, Mad2 et BubR1, a révélé que la catastrophe mitotique provoquée paz UV-AAV2 survient indépendamment du point de contrôle du fuseau mitotique. Ce travail montre que dans les cellules déficientes en p53, UV-AAV2 induit une catastrophe mitotique associée à une surduplication des centrioles dépendant de Chk1 et ayant pour conséquence dramatique la formation de multiples fuseaux mitotiques dans la cellule en mitose.

Probing functional groups at the gas-aerosol interface using heterogeneous titration reactions: a tool for predicting aerosol health effects?

The complex chemical and physical nature of combustion and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) in general precludes the complete characterization of both bulk and interfacial components. The bulk composition reveals the history of the growth process and therefore the source region, whereas the interface controls--to a large extent--the interaction with gases, biological membranes, and solid supports. We summarize the development of a soft interrogation technique, using heterogeneous chemistry, for the interfacial functional groups of selected probe gases [N(CH(3))(3), NH(2)OH, CF(3)COOH, HCl, O(3), NO(2)] of different reactivity. The technique reveals the identity and density of surface functional groups. Examples include acidic and basic sites, olefinic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) sites, and partially and completely oxidized surface sites. We report on the surface composition and oxidation states of laboratory-generated aerosols and of aerosols sampled in several bus depots. In the latter case, the biomarker 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine, signaling oxidative stress caused by aerosol exposure, was isolated. The increase in biomarker levels over a working day is correlated with the surface density N(i)(O3) of olefinic and/or PAH sites obtained from O(3) uptakes as well as with the initial uptake coefficient, γ(0), of five probe gases used in the field. This correlation with γ(0) suggests the idea of competing pathways occurring at the interface of the aerosol particles between the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) responsible for oxidative stress and cellular antioxidants.

A peptide inhibitor of c-Jun N-terminal kinase protects against both aminoglycoside and acoustic trauma-induced auditory hair cell death and hearing loss.

Hearing loss can be caused by a variety of insults, including acoustic trauma and exposure to ototoxins, that principally effect the viability of sensory hair cells via the MAP kinase (MAPK) cell death signaling pathway that incorporates c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). We evaluated the otoprotective efficacy of D-JNKI-1, a cell permeable peptide that blocks the MAPK-JNK signal pathway. The experimental studies included organ cultures of neonatal mouse cochlea exposed to an ototoxic drug and cochleae of adult guinea pigs that were exposed to either an ototoxic drug or acoustic trauma. Results obtained from the organ of Corti explants demonstrated that the MAPK-JNK signal pathway is associated with injury and that blocking of this signal pathway prevented apoptosis in areas of aminoglycoside damage. Treatment of the neomycin-exposed organ of Corti explants with D-JNKI-1 completely prevented hair cell death initiated by this ototoxin. Results from in vivo studies showed that direct application of D-JNKI-1 into the scala tympani of the guinea pig cochlea prevented nearly all hair cell death and permanent hearing loss induced by neomycin ototoxicity. Local delivery of D-JNKI-1 also prevented acoustic trauma-induced permanent hearing loss in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that the MAPK-JNK signal pathway is involved in both ototoxicity and acoustic trauma-induced hair cell loss and permanent hearing loss. Blocking this signal pathway with D-JNKI-1 is of potential therapeutic value for long-term protection of both the morphological integrity and physiological function of the organ of Corti during times of oxidative stress.

Low concentrations of 3-hydroxy glutarate leads to ammonium accumulation and non-apoptotic cell death in developing brain cells

We previously showed in a 3D rat brain cell in vitro model for glutaric aciduria type-I that repeated application of 1mM 3-hydroxy-glutarate (3-OHGA) caused ammonium accumulation, morphologic alterations and induction of non-apoptotic cell death in developing brain cells. Here, we performed a dose-response study with lower concentrations of 3- OHGA.We exposed our cultures to 0.1, 0.33 and 1mM 3-OHGA every 12h over three days at two developmental stages (DIV5-8 and DIV11-14). Ammonium accumulation was observed at both stages starting from 0.1mM 3-OHGA, in parallel with a glutamine decrease. Morphological changes started at 0.33mM with loss of MBP expression and loss of astrocytic processes. Neurons were not substantially affected. At DIV8, release of LDH in the medium and cellular TUNEL staining increased from 0.1mM and 0.33mM 3-OHGA exposure, respectively. No increase in activated caspase-3 was observed. We confirmed ammonium accumulation and non-apoptotic cell death of brain cells in our in vitro model at lower 3-OHGA concentrations thus strongly suggesting that the observed effects are likely to take place in the brain of affected patients. The concomitant glutamine decrease suggests a defect in the astrocyte ammonium buffering system. Ammonium accumulation might be the cause of non-apoptotic cell death.