Exact Solution of Bayes and Minimax Change-Detection Problems

The challenge of detecting a change in the distribution of data is a sequential decision problem that is relevant to many engineering solutions, including quality control and machine and process monitoring. This dissertation develops techniques for exact solution of change-detection problems with discrete time and discrete observations. Change-detection problems are classified as Bayes or minimax based on the availability of information on the change-time distribution. A Bayes optimal solution uses prior information about the distribution of the change time to minimize the expected cost, whereas a minimax optimal solution minimizes the cost under the worst-case change-time distribution. Both types of problems are addressed. The most important result of the dissertation is the development of a polynomial-time algorithm for the solution of important classes of Markov Bayes change-detection problems. Existing techniques for epsilon-exact solution of partially observable Markov decision processes have complexity exponential in the number of observation symbols. A new algorithm, called constellation induction, exploits the concavity and Lipschitz continuity of the value function, and has complexity polynomial in the number of observation symbols. It is shown that change-detection problems with a geometric change-time distribution and identically- and independently-distributed observations before and after the change are solvable in polynomial time. Also, change-detection problems on hidden Markov models with a fixed number of recurrent states are solvable in polynomial time. A detailed implementation and analysis of the constellation-induction algorithm are provided. Exact solution methods are also established for several types of minimax change-detection problems. Finite-horizon problems with arbitrary observation distributions are modeled as extensive-form games and solved using linear programs. Infinite-horizon problems with linear penalty for detection delay and identically- and independently-distributed observations can be solved in polynomial time via epsilon-optimal parameterization of a cumulative-sum procedure. Finally, the properties of policies for change-detection problems are described and analyzed. Simple classes of formal languages are shown to be sufficient for epsilon-exact solution of change-detection problems, and methods for finding minimally sized policy representations are described.

Quantification of the human postural control system to perturbations

Human standing posture is inherently unstable. The postural control system (PCS), which maintains standing posture, is composed of the sensory, musculoskeletal, and central nervous systems. Together these systems integrate sensory afferents and generate appropriate motor efferents to adjust posture. The PCS maintains the body center of mass (COM) with respect to the base of support while constantly resisting destabilizing forces from internal and external perturbations. To assess the human PCS, postural sway during quiet standing or in response to external perturbation have frequently been examined descriptively. Minimal work has been done to understand and quantify the robustness of the PCS to perturbations. Further, there have been some previous attempts to assess the dynamical systems aspects of the PCS or time evolutionary properties of postural sway. However those techniques can only provide summary information about the PCS characteristics; they cannot provide specific information about or recreate the actual sway behavior. This dissertation consists of two parts: part I, the development of two novel methods to assess the human PCS and, part II, the application of these methods. In study 1, a systematic method for analyzing the human PCS during perturbed stance was developed. A mild impulsive perturbation that subjects can easily experience in their daily lives was used. A measure of robustness of the PCS, 1/MaxSens that was based on the inverse of the sensitivity of the system, was introduced. 1/MaxSens successfully quantified the reduced robustness to external perturbations due to age-related degradation of the PCS. In study 2, a stochastic model was used to better understand the human PCS in terms of dynamical systems aspect. This methodology also has the advantage over previous methods in that the sway behavior is captured in a model that can be used to recreate the random oscillatory properties of the PCS. The invariant density which describes the long-term stationary behavior of the center of pressure (COP) was computed from a Markov chain model that was applied to postural sway data during quiet stance. In order to validate the Invariant Density Analysis (IDA), we applied the technique to COP data from different age groups. We found that older adults swayed farther from the centroid and in more stochastic and random manner than young adults. In part II, the tools developed in part I were applied to both occupational and clinical situations. In study 3, 1/MaxSens and IDA were applied to a population of firefighters to investigate the effects of air bottle configuration (weight and size) and vision on the postural stability of firefighters. We found that both air bottle weight and loss of vision, but not size of air bottle, significantly decreased balance performance and increased fall risk. In study 4, IDA was applied to data collected on 444 community-dwelling elderly adults from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. Four out of five IDA parameters were able to successfully differentiate recurrent fallers from non-fallers, while only five out of 30 more common descriptive and stochastic COP measures could distinguish the two groups. Fall history and the IDA parameter of entropy were found to be significant risk factors for falls. This research proposed a new measure for the PCS robustness (1/MaxSens) and a new technique for quantifying the dynamical systems aspect of the PCS (IDA). These new PCS analysis techniques provide easy and effective ways to assess the PCS in occupational and clinical environments.

Potential of Trichoderma harzianum for control of banana leaf fungal pathogens when applied with a food source and an organic adjuvant

Trichoderma isolates were obtained from diseased leaves and fruit collected from plantations in the main banana production area in Northern Queensland. Phylogenetic analyses identified the Trichoderma isolates as T. harzianum and T. virens. The Trichoderma spp. were found to be antagonistic against the banana leaf pathogens Mycosphaerella musicola, Cordana musae, and Deight-oniella torulosa in vitro. Several products used by the banana industry to increase production, including molasses, Fishoil and Seasol, were tested as food source for the Trichoderma isolates. The optimal food substrate was found to be molasses at a concentration of 5 %, which when used in combination with a di-1-p-menthene spreader-sticker enhanced the survivability of Trichoderma populations under natural conditions. This formulation suppressed D. torulosa development under glasshouse conditions. Furthermore, high sensitivity was observed towards the protectant fungicide Mancozeb but Biopest oil (R), a paraffinic oil, only marginally suppressed the growth of Trichoderma isolates in vitro. Thus, this protocol represents a potential to manage banana leaf pathogens as a part of an integrated disease approach.

NIR-spectroscopy for bioprocess monitoring & control

The Ingold port adaption of a free beam NIR spectrometer is tailored for optimal bioprocess monitoring and control. The device shows an excellent signal to noise ratio dedicated to a large free aperture and therefore a large sample volume. This can be seen particularly in the batch trajectories which show a high reproducibility. The robust and compact design withstands rough process environments as well as SIP/CIP cycles. Robust free beam NIR process analyzers are indispensable tools within the PAT/QbD framework for realtime process monitoring and control. They enable multiparametric, non-invasive measurements of analyte concentrations and process trajectories. Free beam NIR spectrometers are an ideal tool to define golden batches and process borders in the sense of QbD. Moreover, sophisticated data analysis both quantitative and MSPC yields directly to a far better process understanding. Information can be provided online in easy to interpret graphs which allow the operator to make fast and knowledge-based decisions. This finally leads to higher stability in process operation, better performance and less failed batches.

Coordinated pricing and inventory management

This dissertation mainly focuses on coordinated pricing and inventory management problems, where the related background is provided in Chapter 1. Several periodic-review models are then discussed in Chapters 2,3,4 and 5, respectively. Chapter 2 analyzes a deterministic single-product model, where a price adjustment cost incurs if the current selling price is changed from the previous period. We develop exact algorithms for the problem under different conditions and find out that computation complexity varies significantly associated with the cost structure. %Moreover, our numerical study indicates that dynamic pricing strategies may outperform static pricing strategies even when price adjustment cost accounts for a significant portion of the total profit. Chapter 3 develops a single-product model in which demand of a period depends not only on the current selling price but also on past prices through the so-called reference price. Strongly polynomial time algorithms are designed for the case without no fixed ordering cost, and a heuristic is proposed for the general case together with an error bound estimation. Moreover, our illustrates through numerical studies that incorporating reference price effect into coordinated pricing and inventory models can have a significant impact on firms' profits. Chapter 4 discusses the stochastic version of the model in Chapter 3 when customers are loss averse. It extends the associated results developed in literature and proves that the reference price dependent base-stock policy is proved to be optimal under a certain conditions. Instead of dealing with specific problems, Chapter 5 establishes the preservation of supermodularity in a class of optimization problems. This property and its extensions include several existing results in the literature as special cases, and provide powerful tools as we illustrate their applications to several operations problems: the stochastic two-product model with cross-price effects, the two-stage inventory control model, and the self-financing model.

Online Supplement to ‘Myopic Allocation Policy with Asymptotically Optimal Sampling Rate’

This document is the Online Supplement to ‘Myopic Allocation Policy with Asymptotically Optimal Sampling Rate,’ to be published in the IEEE Transactions of Automatic Control in 2017.

Spatiotemporal neuromodulation therapies engaging muscle synergies improve motor control after spinal cord injury.

Electrical neuromodulation of lumbar segments improves motor control after spinal cord injury in animal models and humans. However, the physiological principles underlying the effect of this intervention remain poorly understood, which has limited the therapeutic approach to continuous stimulation applied to restricted spinal cord locations. Here we developed stimulation protocols that reproduce the natural dynamics of motoneuron activation during locomotion. For this, we computed the spatiotemporal activation pattern of muscle synergies during locomotion in healthy rats. Computer simulations identified optimal electrode locations to target each synergy through the recruitment of proprioceptive feedback circuits. This framework steered the design of spatially selective spinal implants and real-time control software that modulate extensor and flexor synergies with precise temporal resolution. Spatiotemporal neuromodulation therapies improved gait quality, weight-bearing capacity, endurance and skilled locomotion in several rodent models of spinal cord injury. These new concepts are directly translatable to strategies to improve motor control in humans.

Optimal sequence of landfills in solid waste management

Given that landfills are depletable and replaceable resources, the right approach, when dealing with landfill management, is that of designing an optimal sequence of landfills rather than designing every single landfill separately. In this paper we use Optimal Control models, with mixed elements of both continuous and discrete time problems, to determine an optimal sequence of landfills, as regarding their capacity and lifetime. The resulting optimization problems involve splitting a time horizon of planning into several subintervals, the length of which has to be decided. In each of the subintervals some costs, the amount of which depends on the value of the decision variables, have to be borne. The obtained results may be applied to other economic problems such as private and public investments, consumption decisions on durable goods, etc.

Branch and Bound algorithms in greenhouse climate control

The horticultural sector has become an increasingly important sector of food production, for which greenhouse climate control plays a vital role in improving its sustainability. One of the methods to control the greenhouse climate is Model Predictive Control, which can be optimized through a branch and bound algorithm. The application of the algorithm in literature is examined and analyzed through small examples, and later extended to greenhouse climate simulation. A comparison is made of various alternative objective functions available in literature. Subsequently, a modidified version of the B&B algorithm is presented, which reduces the number of node evaluations required for optimization. Finally, three alternative algorithms are developed and compared to consider the optimization problem from a discrete to a continuous control space.

Bayesian analysis of a mastitis control plan to investigate the influence of veterinary prior beliefs on clinical interpretation

The fundamental objective for health research is to determine whether changes should be made to clinical decisions. Decisions made by veterinary surgeons in the light of new research evidence are known to be influenced by their prior beliefs, especially their initial opinions about the plausibility of possible results. In this paper, clinical trial results for a bovine mastitis control plan were evaluated within a Bayesian context, to incorporate a community of prior distributions that represented a spectrum of clinical prior beliefs. The aim was to quantify the effect of veterinary surgeons’ initial viewpoints on the interpretation of the trial results. A Bayesian analysis was conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures. Stochastic models included a financial cost attributed to a change in clinical mastitis following implementation of the control plan. Prior distributions were incorporated that covered a realistic range of possible clinical viewpoints, including scepticism, enthusiasm and uncertainty. Posterior distributions revealed important differences in the financial gain that clinicians with different starting viewpoints would anticipate from the mastitis control plan, given the actual research results. For example, a severe sceptic would ascribe a probability of 0.50 for a return of <£5 per cow in an average herd that implemented the plan, whereas an enthusiast would ascribe this probability for a return of >£20 per cow. Simulations using increased trial sizes indicated that if the original study was four times as large, an initial sceptic would be more convinced about the efficacy of the control plan but would still anticipate less financial return than an initial enthusiast would anticipate after the original study. In conclusion, it is possible to estimate how clinicians’ prior beliefs influence their interpretation of research evidence. Further research on the extent to which different interpretations of evidence result in changes to clinical practice would be worthwhile.

Optimal impulsive collision avoidance in low earth orbit

This paper presents a high-accuracy fully analytical formulation to compute the miss distance and collision probability of two approaching objects following an impulsive collision avoidance maneuver. The formulation hinges on a linear relation between the applied impulse and the objects? relative motion in the b-plane, which allows one to formulate the maneuver optimization problem as an eigenvalue problem coupled to a simple nonlinear algebraic equation. The optimization criterion consists of minimizing the maneuver cost in terms of delta-V magnitude to either maximize collision miss distance or to minimize Gaussian collision probability. The algorithm, whose accuracy is verified in representative mission scenarios, can be employed for collision avoidance maneuver planning with reduced computational cost when compared with fully numerical algorithms.

Control of the spatial homogeneity of pore surface chemistry in particulate activated carbon

We show here that a physical activation process that is diffusion-controlled yields an activated carbon whose chemistry – both elemental and functional – varies radially through the particles. For the ∼100 μm particles considered here, diffusion-controlled activation in CO2 at 800 °C saw a halving in the oxygen concentration from the particle periphery to its center. It was also observed that this activation process leads to an increase in keto and quinone groups from the particle periphery towards the center and the inverse for other carbonyls as well as ether and hydroxyl groups, suggesting the two are formed under CO2-poor and -rich environments, respectively. In contrast to these observations, use of physical activation processes where diffusion-control is absent are shown to yield carbons whose chemistry is radially invariant. This suggests that a non-diffusion limited activation processes should be used if the performance of a carbon is dependent on having a specific optimal pore surface chemical composition.

Development of new scenario decomposition techniques for linear and nonlinear stochastic programming

Une approche classique pour traiter les problèmes d’optimisation avec incertitude à deux- et multi-étapes est d’utiliser l’analyse par scénario. Pour ce faire, l’incertitude de certaines données du problème est modélisée par vecteurs aléatoires avec des supports finis spécifiques aux étapes. Chacune de ces réalisations représente un scénario. En utilisant des scénarios, il est possible d’étudier des versions plus simples (sous-problèmes) du problème original. Comme technique de décomposition par scénario, l’algorithme de recouvrement progressif est une des méthodes les plus populaires pour résoudre les problèmes de programmation stochastique multi-étapes. Malgré la décomposition complète par scénario, l’efficacité de la méthode du recouvrement progressif est très sensible à certains aspects pratiques, tels que le choix du paramètre de pénalisation et la manipulation du terme quadratique dans la fonction objectif du lagrangien augmenté. Pour le choix du paramètre de pénalisation, nous examinons quelques-unes des méthodes populaires, et nous proposons une nouvelle stratégie adaptive qui vise à mieux suivre le processus de l’algorithme. Des expériences numériques sur des exemples de problèmes stochastiques linéaires multi-étapes suggèrent que la plupart des techniques existantes peuvent présenter une convergence prématurée à une solution sous-optimale ou converger vers la solution optimale, mais avec un taux très lent. En revanche, la nouvelle stratégie paraît robuste et efficace. Elle a convergé vers l’optimalité dans toutes nos expériences et a été la plus rapide dans la plupart des cas. Pour la question de la manipulation du terme quadratique, nous faisons une revue des techniques existantes et nous proposons l’idée de remplacer le terme quadratique par un terme linéaire. Bien que qu’il nous reste encore à tester notre méthode, nous avons l’intuition qu’elle réduira certaines difficultés numériques et théoriques de la méthode de recouvrement progressif.

REALIZATION OF A DC MICROGRID USING A HAMILTONIAN BASED CONTROLS SOLUTION

Future power grids are envisioned to be serviced by heterogeneous arrangements of renewable energy sources. Due to their stochastic nature, energy storage distribution and management are pivotal in realizing microgrids serviced heavily by renewable energy assets. Identifying the required response characteristics to meet the operational requirements of a power grid are of great importance and must be illuminated in order to discern optimal hardware topologies. Hamiltonian Surface Shaping and Power Flow Control (HSSPFC) presents the tools to identify such characteristics. By using energy storage as actuation within the closed loop controller, the response requirements may be identified while providing a decoupled controller solution. A DC microgrid servicing a fixed RC load through source and bus level storage managed by HSSPFC was realized in hardware. A procedure was developed to calibrate the DC microgrid architecture of this work to the reduced order model used by the HSSPFC law. Storage requirements were examined through simulation and experimental testing. Bandwidth contributions between feed forward and PI components of the HSSPFC law are illuminated and suggest the need for well-known system losses to prevent the need for additional overhead in storage allocations. The following work outlines the steps taken in realizing a DC microgrid and presents design considerations for system calibration and storage requirements per the closed loop controls for future DC microgrids.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.