Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Qualitative operational risk software -development of a software tool for determining the root of operational risk

This article shows software that allows determining the statistical behavior of qualitative data originating surveys previously transformed with a Likert’s scale to quantitative data. The main intention is offer to users a useful tool to know statistics' characteristics and forecasts of financial risks in a fast and simple way. Additionally,this paper presents the definition of operational risk. On the other hand, the article explains different techniques to do surveys with a Likert’s scale (Avila, 2008) to know expert’s opinion with the transformation of qualitative data to quantitative data. In addition, this paper will show how is very easy to distinguish an expert’s opinion related to risk, but when users have a lot of surveys and matrices is very difficult to obtain results because is necessary to compare common data. On the other hand, statistical value representative must be extracted from common data to get weight of each risk. In the end, this article exposes the development of “Qualitative Operational Risk Software” or QORS by its acronym, which has been designed to determine the root of risks in organizations and its value at operational risk OpVaR (Jorion, 2008; Chernobai et al, 2008) when input data comes from expert’s opinion and their associated matrices.

Maximum likelihood estimation of new state space models for operational modal analysis

The modal analysis of a structural system consists on computing its vibrational modes. The experimental way to estimate these modes requires to excite the system with a measured or known input and then to measure the system output at different points using sensors. Finally, system inputs and outputs are used to compute the modes of vibration. When the system refers to large structures like buildings or bridges, the tests have to be performed in situ, so it is not possible to measure system inputs such as wind, traffic, . . .Even if a known input is applied, the procedure is usually difficult and expensive, and there are still uncontrolled disturbances acting at the time of the test. These facts led to the idea of computing the modes of vibration using only the measured vibrations and regardless of the inputs that originated them, whether they are ambient vibrations (wind, earthquakes, . . . ) or operational loads (traffic, human loading, . . . ). This procedure is usually called Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), and in general consists on to fit a mathematical model to the measured data assuming the unobserved excitations are realizations of a stationary stochastic process (usually white noise processes). Then, the modes of vibration are computed from the estimated model. The first issue investigated in this thesis is the performance of the Expectation- Maximization (EM) algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the state space model in the field of OMA. The algorithm is described in detail and it is analysed how to apply it to vibration data. After that, it is compared to another well known method, the Stochastic Subspace Identification algorithm. The maximum likelihood estimate enjoys some optimal properties from a statistical point of view what makes it very attractive in practice, but the most remarkable property of the EM algorithm is that it can be used to address a wide range of situations in OMA. In this work, three additional state space models are proposed and estimated using the EM algorithm: • The first model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration when several tests are performed in the same structural system. Instead of analyse record by record and then compute averages, the EM algorithm is extended for the joint estimation of the proposed state space model using all the available data. • The second state space model is used to estimate the modes of vibration when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of points to be tested. In these cases it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors). Here, the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the modal parameters taking into account the data of all setups. • And last, a state space model is proposed to estimate the modes of vibration in the presence of unmeasured inputs that cannot be modelled as white noise processes. In these cases, the frequency components of the inputs cannot be separated from the eigenfrequencies of the system, and spurious modes are obtained in the identification process. The idea is to measure the response of the structure corresponding to different inputs; then, it is assumed that the parameters common to all the data correspond to the structure (modes of vibration), and the parameters found in a specific test correspond to the input in that test. The problem is solved using the proposed state space model and the EM algorithm. Resumen El análisis modal de un sistema estructural consiste en calcular sus modos de vibración. Para estimar estos modos experimentalmente es preciso excitar el sistema con entradas conocidas y registrar las salidas del sistema en diferentes puntos por medio de sensores. Finalmente, los modos de vibración se calculan utilizando las entradas y salidas registradas. Cuando el sistema es una gran estructura como un puente o un edificio, los experimentos tienen que realizarse in situ, por lo que no es posible registrar entradas al sistema tales como viento, tráfico, . . . Incluso si se aplica una entrada conocida, el procedimiento suele ser complicado y caro, y todavía están presentes perturbaciones no controladas que excitan el sistema durante el test. Estos hechos han llevado a la idea de calcular los modos de vibración utilizando sólo las vibraciones registradas en la estructura y sin tener en cuenta las cargas que las originan, ya sean cargas ambientales (viento, terremotos, . . . ) o cargas de explotación (tráfico, cargas humanas, . . . ). Este procedimiento se conoce en la literatura especializada como Análisis Modal Operacional, y en general consiste en ajustar un modelo matemático a los datos registrados adoptando la hipótesis de que las excitaciones no conocidas son realizaciones de un proceso estocástico estacionario (generalmente ruido blanco). Posteriormente, los modos de vibración se calculan a partir del modelo estimado. El primer problema que se ha investigado en esta tesis es la utilización de máxima verosimilitud y el algoritmo EM (Expectation-Maximization) para la estimación del modelo espacio de los estados en el ámbito del Análisis Modal Operacional. El algoritmo se describe en detalle y también se analiza como aplicarlo cuando se dispone de datos de vibraciones de una estructura. A continuación se compara con otro método muy conocido, el método de los Subespacios. Los estimadores máximo verosímiles presentan una serie de propiedades que los hacen óptimos desde un punto de vista estadístico, pero la propiedad más destacable del algoritmo EM es que puede utilizarse para resolver un amplio abanico de situaciones que se presentan en el Análisis Modal Operacional. En este trabajo se proponen y estiman tres modelos en el espacio de los estados: • El primer modelo se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando se dispone de datos correspondientes a varios experimentos realizados en la misma estructura. En lugar de analizar registro a registro y calcular promedios, se utiliza algoritmo EM para la estimación conjunta del modelo propuesto utilizando todos los datos disponibles. • El segundo modelo en el espacio de los estados propuesto se utiliza para estimar los modos de vibración cuando el número de sensores disponibles es menor que vi Resumen el número de puntos que se quieren analizar en la estructura. En estos casos es usual realizar varios ensayos cambiando la posición de los sensores de un ensayo a otro (múltiples configuraciones de sensores). En este trabajo se utiliza el algoritmo EM para estimar los parámetros modales teniendo en cuenta los datos de todas las configuraciones. • Por último, se propone otro modelo en el espacio de los estados para estimar los modos de vibración en la presencia de entradas al sistema que no pueden modelarse como procesos estocásticos de ruido blanco. En estos casos, las frecuencias de las entradas no se pueden separar de las frecuencias del sistema y se obtienen modos espurios en la fase de identificación. La idea es registrar la respuesta de la estructura correspondiente a diferentes entradas; entonces se adopta la hipótesis de que los parámetros comunes a todos los registros corresponden a la estructura (modos de vibración), y los parámetros encontrados en un registro específico corresponden a la entrada en dicho ensayo. El problema se resuelve utilizando el modelo propuesto y el algoritmo EM.

VISIONS Vehicular communication Improvement : solution based on IMS Operational Nodes and Services

Digital services and communications in vehicular scenarios provide the essential assets to improve road transport in several ways like reducing accidents, improving traffic efficiency and optimizing the transport of goods and people. Vehicular communications typically rely on VANET (Vehicular Ad hoc Networks). In these networks vehicles communicate with each other without the need of infrastructure. VANET are mainly oriented to disseminate information to the vehicles in certain geographic area for time critical services like safety warnings but present very challenging requirements that have not been successfully fulfilled nowadays. Some of these challenges are; channel saturation due to simultaneous radio access of many vehicles, routing protocols in topologies that vary rapidly, minimum quality of service assurance and security mechanisms to efficiently detect and neutralize malicious attacks. Vehicular services can be classified in four important groups: Safety, Efficiency, Sustainability and Infotainment. The benefits of these services for the transport sector are clear but many technological and business challenges need to be faced before a real mass market deployment. Service delivery platforms are not prepared for fulfilling the needs of this complex environment with restrictive requirements due to the criticism of some services To overcome this situation, we propose a solution called VISIONS “Vehicular communication Improvement: Solution based on IMS Operational Nodes and Services”. VISIONS leverages on IMS subsystem and NGN enablers, and follows the CALM reference Architecture standardized by ISO. It also avoids the use of Road Side Units (RSUs), reducing complexity and high costs in terms of deployment and maintenance. We demonstrate the benefits in the following areas: 1. VANET networks efficiency. VISIONS provide a mechanism for the vehicles to access valuable information from IMS and its capabilities through a cellular channel. This efficiency improvement will occur in two relevant areas: a. Routing mechanisms. These protocols are responsible of carrying information from a vehicle to another (or a group of vehicles) using multihop mechanisms. We do not propose a new algorithm but the use of VANET topology information provided through our solution to enrich the performance of these protocols. b. Security. Many aspects of security (privacy, key, authentication, access control, revocation mechanisms, etc) are not resolved in vehicular communications. Our solution efficiently disseminates revocation information to neutralize malicious nodes in the VANET. 2. Service delivery platform. It is based on extended enablers, reference architectures, standard protocols and open APIs. By following this approach, we reduce costs and resources for service development, deployment and maintenance. To quantify these benefits in VANET networks, we provide an analytical model of the system and simulate our solution in realistic scenarios. The simulations results demonstrate how VISIONS improves the performance of relevant routing protocols and is more efficient neutralizing security attacks than the widely proposed solutions based on RSUs. Finally, we design an innovative Social Network service based in our platform, explaining how VISIONS facilitate the deployment and usage of complex capabilities. RESUMEN Los servicios digitales y comunicaciones en entornos vehiculares proporcionan herramientas esenciales para mejorar el transporte por carretera; reduciendo el número de accidentes, mejorando la eficiencia del tráfico y optimizando el transporte de mercancías y personas. Las comunicaciones vehiculares generalmente están basadas en redes VANET (Vehicular Ad hoc Networks). En dichas redes, los vehículos se comunican entre sí sin necesidad de infraestructura. Las redes VANET están principalmente orientadas a difundir información (por ejemplo advertencias de seguridad) a los vehículos en determinadas zonas geográficas, pero presentan unos requisitos muy exigentes que no se han resuelto con éxito hasta la fecha. Algunos de estos retos son; saturación del canal de acceso de radio debido al acceso simultáneo de múltiples vehículos, la eficiencia de protocolos de encaminamiento en topologías que varían rápidamente, la calidad de servicio (QoS) y los mecanismos de seguridad para detectar y neutralizar los ataques maliciosos de manera eficiente. Los servicios vehiculares pueden clasificarse en cuatro grupos: Seguridad, Eficiencia del tráfico, Sostenibilidad, e Infotainment (información y entretenimiento). Los beneficios de estos servicios para el sector son claros, pero es necesario resolver muchos desafíos tecnológicos y de negocio antes de una implementación real. Las actuales plataformas de despliegue de servicios no están preparadas para satisfacer las necesidades de este complejo entorno con requisitos muy restrictivos debido a la criticidad de algunas aplicaciones. Con el objetivo de mejorar esta situación, proponemos una solución llamada VISIONS “Vehicular communication Improvement: Solution based on IMS Operational Nodes and Services”. VISIONS se basa en el subsistema IMS, las capacidades NGN y es compatible con la arquitectura de referencia CALM estandarizado por ISO para sistemas de transporte. También evita el uso de elementos en las carreteras, conocidos como Road Side Units (RSU), reduciendo la complejidad y los altos costes de despliegue y mantenimiento. A lo largo de la tesis, demostramos los beneficios en las siguientes áreas: 1. Eficiencia en redes VANET. VISIONS proporciona un mecanismo para que los vehículos accedan a información valiosa proporcionada por IMS y sus capacidades a través de un canal de celular. Dicho mecanismo contribuye a la mejora de dos áreas importantes: a. Mecanismos de encaminamiento. Estos protocolos son responsables de llevar información de un vehículo a otro (o a un grupo de vehículos) utilizando múltiples saltos. No proponemos un nuevo algoritmo de encaminamiento, sino el uso de información topológica de la red VANET a través de nuestra solución para enriquecer el funcionamiento de los protocolos más relevantes. b. Seguridad. Muchos aspectos de la seguridad (privacidad, gestión de claves, autenticación, control de acceso, mecanismos de revocación, etc) no están resueltos en las comunicaciones vehiculares. Nuestra solución difunde de manera eficiente la información de revocación para neutralizar los nodos maliciosos en la red. 2. Plataforma de despliegue de servicios. Está basada en capacidades NGN, arquitecturas de referencia, protocolos estándar y APIs abiertos. Siguiendo este enfoque, reducimos costes y optimizamos procesos para el desarrollo, despliegue y mantenimiento de servicios vehiculares. Para cuantificar estos beneficios en las redes VANET, ofrecemos un modelo de analítico del sistema y simulamos nuestra solución en escenarios realistas. Los resultados de las simulaciones muestran cómo VISIONS mejora el rendimiento de los protocolos de encaminamiento relevantes y neutraliza los ataques a la seguridad de forma más eficientes que las soluciones basadas en RSU. Por último, diseñamos un innovador servicio de red social basado en nuestra plataforma, explicando cómo VISIONS facilita el despliegue y el uso de las capacidades NGN.

Operational Modal Analysis using Expectation Maximization Algorithm

This paper presents a time-domain stochastic system identification method based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Expectation Maximization algorithm. The effectiveness of this structural identification method is evaluated through numerical simulation in the context of the ASCE benchmark problem on structural health monitoring. Modal parameters (eigenfrequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes) of the benchmark structure have been estimated applying the proposed identification method to a set of 100 simulated cases. The numerical results show that the proposed method estimates all the modal parameters reasonably well in the presence of 30% measurement noise even. Finally, advantages and disadvantages of the method have been discussed.

Operational modal analisys using joint statistical analysis of multiple records

In Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) of a structure, the data acquisition process may be repeated many times. In these cases, the analyst has several similar records for the modal analysis of the structure that have been obtained at di�erent time instants (multiple records). The solution obtained varies from one record to another, sometimes considerably. The differences are due to several reasons: statistical errors of estimation, changes in the external forces (unmeasured forces) that modify the output spectra, appearance of spurious modes, etc. Combining the results of the di�erent individual analysis is not straightforward. To solve the problem, we propose to make the joint estimation of the parameters using all the records. This can be done in a very simple way using state space models and computing the estimates by maximum-likelihood. The method provides a single result for the modal parameters that combines optimally all the records.

Deriving the full-reducing Krivine machine from the small-step operational semantics of normal order

We derive by program transformation Pierre Crégut s full-reducing Krivine machine KN from the structural operational semantics of the normal order reduction strategy in a closure-converted pure lambda calculus. We thus establish the correspondence between the strategy and the machine, and showcase our technique for deriving full-reducing abstract machines. Actually, the machine we obtain is a slightly optimised version that can work with open terms and may be used in implementations of proof assistants.

Operational costs and reliability in a large rural electrification programme based on solar home systems

Experiences in decentralized rural electrification programmes using solar home systems have suffered difficulties during the operation and maintenance phase, due in many cases, to the underestimation of the maintenance cost, because of the decentralized character of the activity, and also because the reliability of the solar home system components is frequently unknown. This paper reports on the reliability study and cost characterization achieved in a large photovoltaic rural electrification programme carried out in Morocco. The paper aims to determinate the reliability features of the solar systems, focusing in the in-field testing for batteries and photovoltaic modules. The degradation rates for batteries and PV modules have been extracted from the in-field experiments. On the other hand, the main costs related to the operation and maintenance activity have been identified with the aim of establishing the main factors that lead to the failure of the quality sustainability in many rural electrification programmes.

Operational costs of A 13,000 solar home systems rural electrification programme

This paper presents an assessment and evaluation of the costs of operation and maintenance (O&M) in a real PV rural electrification (PVRE) programme, with the aim of characterizing its costs structure. Based on the extracted data of the 5-years operational costs of a private operator, the programme has been analyzed to take out the most relevant costs involved in the O&M phase as well as the comparative appraisal between the 3 main activities: installation, O&M and management. Through this study we try to answer to the new challenge of decentralized rural electrification based on larger programmes (with tens of thousands of SHSs) and longer maintenance and operation periods (at least 10 years).

Operational Aspects of Full Reduction in Lambda Calculi

Esta tesis estudia la reducción plena (‘full reduction’ en inglés) en distintos cálculos lambda. 1 En esencia, la reducción plena consiste en evaluar los cuerpos de las funciones en los lenguajes de programación funcional con ligaduras. Se toma el cálculo lambda clásico (i.e., puro y sin tipos) como el sistema formal que modela el paradigma de programación funcional. La reducción plena es una técnica fundamental cuando se considera a los programas como datos, por ejemplo para la optimización de programas mediante evaluación parcial, o cuando algún atributo del programa se representa a su vez por un programa, como el tipo en los demostradores automáticos de teoremas actuales. Muchas semánticas operacionales que realizan reducción plena tienen naturaleza híbrida. Se introduce formalmente la noción de naturaleza híbrida, que constituye el hilo conductor de todo el trabajo. En el cálculo lambda la naturaleza híbrida se manifiesta como una ‘distinción de fase’ en el tratamiento de las abstracciones, ya sean consideradas desde fuera o desde dentro de si mismas. Esta distinción de fase conlleva una estructura en capas en la que una semántica híbrida depende de una o más semánticas subsidiarias. Desde el punto de vista de los lenguajes de programación, la tesis muestra como derivar, mediante técnicas de transformación de programas, implementaciones de semánticas operacionales que reducen plenamente a partir de sus especificaciones. Las técnicas de transformación de programas consisten en transformaciones sintácticas que preservan la equivalencia semántica de los programas. Se ajustan las técnicas de transformación de programas existentes para trabajar con implementaciones de semánticas híbridas. Además, se muestra el impacto que tiene la reducción plena en las implementaciones que utilizan entornos. Los entornos son un ingrediente fundamental en las implementaciones realistas de una máquina abstracta. Desde el punto de vista de los sistemas formales, la tesis desvela una teoría novedosa para el cálculo lambda con paso por valor (‘call-by-value lambda calculus’ en inglés) que es consistente con la reducción plena. Dicha teoría induce una noción de equivalencia observacional que distingue más puntos que las teorías existentes para dicho cálculo. Esta contribución ayuda a establecer una ‘teoría estándar’ en el cálculo lambda con paso por valor que es análoga a la ‘teoría estándar’ del cálculo lambda clásico propugnada por Barendregt. Se presentan resultados de teoría de la demostración, y se sugiere como abordar el estudio de teoría de modelos. ABSTRACT This thesis studies full reduction in lambda calculi. In a nutshell, full reduction consists in evaluating the body of the functions in a functional programming language with binders. The classical (i.e., pure untyped) lambda calculus is set as the formal system that models the functional paradigm. Full reduction is a prominent technique when programs are treated as data objects, for instance when performing optimisations by partial evaluation, or when some attribute of the program is represented by a program itself, like the type in modern proof assistants. A notable feature of many full-reducing operational semantics is its hybrid nature, which is introduced and which constitutes the guiding theme of the thesis. In the lambda calculus, the hybrid nature amounts to a ‘phase distinction’ in the treatment of abstractions when considered either from outside or from inside themselves. This distinction entails a layered structure in which a hybrid semantics depends on one or more subsidiary semantics. From a programming languages standpoint, the thesis shows how to derive implementations of full-reducing operational semantics from their specifications, by using program transformations techniques. The program transformation techniques are syntactical transformations which preserve the semantic equivalence of programs. The existing program transformation techniques are adjusted to work with implementations of hybrid semantics. The thesis also shows how full reduction impacts the implementations that use the environment technique. The environment technique is a key ingredient of real-world implementations of abstract machines which helps to circumvent the issue with binders. From a formal systems standpoint, the thesis discloses a novel consistent theory for the call-by-value variant of the lambda calculus which accounts for full reduction. This novel theory entails a notion of observational equivalence which distinguishes more points than other existing theories for the call-by-value lambda calculus. This contribution helps to establish a ‘standard theory’ in that calculus which constitutes the analogous of the ‘standard theory’ advocated by Barendregt in the classical lambda calculus. Some prooftheoretical results are presented, and insights on the model-theoretical study are given.

Calibration of calculation models of wooden guardrails with Operational Modal Analysis

This study analyses the differences between two calculation models for guardrails on building sites that use wooden boards and tubular steel posts. Wood was considered an isotropic material in one model and an orthotropic material in a second model. The elastic constants of the wood were obtained with ultrasound. Frequencies and vibration modes were obtained for both models through linear analysis using the finite element method. The two models were experimentally calibrated through operational modal analysis. The results obtained show that for the three types of wood under analysis, the model which considered them as an orthotropic material fitted the experimental results better than the model which considered them as an isotropic material.

Qualitative operational value at risk for an electric utility based on the guidelines of the basel committee

This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.

Operational water balance in irrigation districts

In pressure irrigation-water distribution networks, applied water volume is usually controlled opening a valve during a calculated time interval, and assuming constant flow rate. In general, pressure regulating devices for controlling the discharged flow rate by irrigation units are needed due to the variability of pressure conditions.

A methodology proposal to obtain operational parameter forecasts and operational risk assessment in container terminals

Las terminales de contenedores son sistemas complejos en los que un elevado número de actores económicos interactúan para ofrecer servicios de alta calidad bajo una estricta planificación y objetivos económicos. Las conocidas como "terminales de nueva generación" están diseñadas para prestar servicio a los mega-buques, que requieren tasas de productividad que alcanzan los 300 movimientos/ hora. Estas terminales han de satisfacer altos estándares dado que la competitividad entre terminales es elevada. Asegurar la fiabilidad de las planificaciones del atraque es clave para atraer clientes, así como reducir al mínimo el tiempo que el buque permanece en el puerto. La planificación de las operaciones es más compleja que antaño, y las tolerancias para posibles errores, menores. En este contexto, las interrupciones operativas deben reducirse al mínimo. Las principales causas de dichas perturbaciones operacionales, y por lo tanto de incertidumbre, se identifican y caracterizan en esta investigación. Existen una serie de factores que al interactuar con la infraestructura y/o las operaciones desencadenan modos de fallo o parada operativa. Los primeros pueden derivar no solo en retrasos en el servicio sino que además puede tener efectos colaterales sobre la reputación de la terminal, o incluso gasto de tiempo de gestión, todo lo cual supone un impacto para la terminal. En el futuro inmediato, la monitorización de las variables operativas presenta gran potencial de cara a mejorar cualitativamente la gestión de las operaciones y los modelos de planificación de las terminales, cuyo nivel de automatización va en aumento. La combinación del criterio experto con instrumentos que proporcionen datos a corto y largo plazo es fundamental para el desarrollo de herramientas que ayuden en la toma de decisiones, ya que de este modo estarán adaptadas a las auténticas condiciones climáticas y operativas que existen en cada emplazamiento. Para el corto plazo se propone una metodología con la que obtener predicciones de parámetros operativos en terminales de contenedores. Adicionalmente se ha desarrollado un caso de estudio en el que se aplica el modelo propuesto para obtener predicciones de la productividad del buque. Este trabajo se ha basado íntegramente en datos proporcionados por una terminal semi-automatizada española. Por otro lado, se analiza cómo gestionar, evaluar y mitigar el efecto de las interrupciones operativas a largo plazo a través de la evaluación del riesgo, una forma interesante de evaluar el effecto que eventos inciertos pero probables pueden generar sobre la productividad a largo plazo de la terminal. Además se propone una definición de riesgo operativo junto con una discusión de los términos que representan con mayor fidelidad la naturaleza de las actividades y finalmente, se proporcionan directrices para gestionar los resultados obtenidos. Container terminals are complex systems where a large number of factors and stakeholders interact to provide high-quality services under rigid planning schedules and economic objectives. The socalled next generation terminals are conceived to serve the new mega-vessels, which are demanding productivity rates up to 300 moves/hour. These terminals need to satisfy high standards because competition among terminals is fierce. Ensuring reliability in berth scheduling is key to attract clients, as well as to reduce at a minimum the time that vessels stay the port. Because of the aforementioned, operations planning is becoming more complex, and the tolerances for errors are smaller. In this context, operational disturbances must be reduced at a minimum. The main sources of operational disruptions and thus, of uncertainty, are identified and characterized in this study. External drivers interact with the infrastructure and/or the activities resulting in failure or stoppage modes. The later may derive not only in operational delays but in collateral and reputation damage or loss of time (especially management times), all what implies an impact for the terminal. In the near future, the monitoring of operational variables has great potential to make a qualitative improvement in the operations management and planning models of terminals that use increasing levels of automation. The combination of expert criteria with instruments that provide short- and long-run data is fundamental for the development of tools to guide decision-making, since they will be adapted to the real climatic and operational conditions that exist on site. For the short-term a method to obtain operational parameter forecasts in container terminals. To this end, a case study is presented, in which forecasts of vessel performance are obtained. This research has been entirely been based on data gathered from a semi-automated container terminal from Spain. In the other hand it is analyzed how to manage, evaluate and mitigate disruptions in the long-term by means of the risk assessment, an interesting approach to evaluate the effect of uncertain but likely events on the long-term throughput of the terminal. In addition, a definition for operational risk evaluation in port facilities is proposed along with a discussion of the terms that better represent the nature of the activities involved and finally, guidelines to manage the results obtained are provided.

State space models for multi-setup operational modal analysis

Operational Modal Analysis consists on estimate the modal parameters of a structure (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal vectors) from output-only vibration measurements. The modal vectors can be only estimated where a sensor is placed, so when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of tested points, it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors): some sensors stay at the same position from setup to setup, and the other sensors change the position until all the tested points are covered. The permanent sensors are then used to merge the mode shape estimated at each setup (or partial modal vectors) into global modal vectors. Traditionally, the partial modal vectors are estimated independently setup by setup, and the global modal vectors are obtained in a postprocess phase. In this work we present two state space models that can be used to process all the recorded setups at the same time, and we also present how these models can be estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The result is that the global mode shape of each mode is obtained automatically, and subsequently, a single value for the natural frequency and damping ratio of the mode is computed. Finally, both models are compared using real measured data.