The water vapour continuum: brief history and recent developments

The water vapour continuum is characterised by absorption that varies smoothly with wavelength, from the visible to the microwave. It is present within the rotational and vibrational–rotational bands of water vapour, which consist of large numbers of narrow spectral lines, and in the many ‘windows’ between these bands. The continuum absorption in the window regions is of particular importance for the Earth’s radiation budget and for remote-sensing techniques that exploit these windows. Historically, most attention has focused on the 8–12 μm (mid-infrared) atmospheric window, where the continuum is relatively well-characterised, but there have been many fewer measurements within bands and in other window regions. In addition, the causes of the continuum remain a subject of controversy. This paper provides a brief historical overview of the development of understanding of the continuum and then reviews recent developments, with a focus on the near-infrared spectral region. Recent laboratory measurements in near-infrared windows, which reveal absorption typically an order of magnitude stronger than in widely used continuum models, are shown to have important consequences for remote-sensing techniques that use these windows for retrieving cloud properties.

Effects of psychotherapy for anxiety in children and adolescents: a meta-analytic review

This paper provides a comprehensive quantitative review of high quality randomized controlled trials of psychological therapies for anxiety disorders in children and young people. Using a systematic search for randomized controlled trials which included a control condition and reported data suitable for meta-analysis, 55 studies were included. Eligible studies were rated for methodological quality and outcome data were extracted and analyzed using standard methods. Trial quality was variable, many studies were underpowered and adverse effects were rarely assessed; however, quality ratings were higher for more recently published studies. Most trials evaluated cognitive behavior therapy or behavior therapy and most recruited both children and adolescents. Psychological therapy for anxiety in children and young people was moderately effective overall, but effect sizes were small to medium when psychological therapy was compared to an active control condition. The effect size for non-CBT interventions was not significant. Parental involvement in therapy was not associated with differential effectiveness. Treatment targeted at specific anxiety disorders, individual psychotherapy, and psychotherapy with older children and adolescents had effect sizes which were larger than effect sizes for treatments targeting a range of anxiety disorders, group psychotherapy, and psychotherapy with younger children. Few studies included an effective follow-up. Future studies should follow CONSORT reporting standards, be adequately powered, and assess follow-up. Research trials are unlikely to address all important clinical questions around treatment delivery. Thus, careful assessment and formulation will remain an essential part of successful psychological treatment for anxiety in children and young people.

Improving insight and non-insight problem solving with brief interventions

Developing brief training interventions that benefit different forms of problem solving is challenging. In earlier research, Chrysikou (2006) showed that engaging in a task requiring generation of alternative uses of common objects improved subsequent insight problem solving. These benefits were attributed to a form of implicit transfer of processing involving enhanced construction of impromptu, on-the-spot or ‘ad hoc’ goal-directed categorizations of the problem elements. Following this, it is predicted that the alternative uses exercise should benefit abilities that govern goal-directed behaviour, such as fluid intelligence and executive functions. Similarly, an indirect intervention – self-affirmation (SA) – that has been shown to enhance cognitive and executive performance after self-regulation challenge and when under stereotype threat, may also increase adaptive goal-directed thinking and likewise should bolster problem-solving performance. In Experiment 1, brief single-session interventions, involving either alternative uses generation or SA, significantly enhanced both subsequent insight and visual–spatial fluid reasoning problem solving. In Experiment 2, we replicated the finding of benefits of both alternative uses generation and SA on subsequent insight problem-solving performance, and demonstrated that the underlying mechanism likely involves improved executive functioning. Even brief cognitive– and social–psychological interventions may substantially bolster different types of problem solving and may exert largely similar facilitatory effects on goal-directed behaviours.

Brief communication. Rain effect on the load of tephra deposits

Accumulation of tephra fallout produced during explosive eruptions can cause roof collapses in areas near the volcano, when the weight of the deposit exceeds some threshold value that depends on the quality of buildings. The additional loading of water that remains trapped in the tephra deposits due to rainfall can contribute to increasing the loading of the deposits on the roofs. Here we propose a simple approach to estimate an upper bound for the contribution of rain to the load of pyroclastic deposits that is useful for hazard assessment purposes. As case study we present an application of the method in the area of Naples, Italy, for a reference eruption from Vesuvius volcano.

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sea surface temperature estimation from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12)

This paper describes the techniques used to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Previous SST retrieval techniques relying on channels at 11 and 12 μm are not applicable because GOES-12 lacks the latter channel. Cloud detection is performed using a Bayesian method exploiting fast-forward modeling of prior clear-sky radiances using numerical weather predictions. The basic retrieval algorithm used at nighttime is based on a linear combination of brightness temperatures at 3.9 and 11 μm. In comparison with traditional split window SSTs (using 11- and 12-μm channels), simulations show that this combination has maximum scatter when observing drier colder scenes, with a comparable overall performance. For daytime retrieval, the same algorithm is applied after estimating and removing the contribution to brightness temperature in the 3.9-μm channel from solar irradiance. The correction is based on radiative transfer simulations and comprises a parameterization for atmospheric scattering and a calculation of ocean surface reflected radiance. Potential use of the 13-μm channel for SST is shown in a simulation study: in conjunction with the 3.9-μm channel, it can reduce the retrieval error by 30%. Some validation results are shown while a companion paper by Maturi et al. shows a detailed analysis of the validation results for the operational algorithms described in this present article.

NOAA's sea surface temperature products from operational geostationary satellites

NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) has generated sea surface temperature (SST) products from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-East (E) and GOES-West (W) on an operational basis since December 2000. Since that time, a process of continual development has produced steady improvements in product accuracy. Recent improvements extended the capability to permit generation of operational SST retrievals from the Japanese Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT)-1R and the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, thereby extending spatial coverage. The four geostationary satellites (at longitudes of 75°W, 135°W, 140°E, and 0°) provide high temporal SST retrievals for most of the tropics and midlatitudes, with the exception of a region between 60° and 80°E. Because of ongoing development, the quality of these retrievals now approaches that of SST products from the polar-orbiting Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). These products from GOES provide hourly regional imagery, 3-hourly hemispheric imagery, 24-h merged composites, a GOES SST level 2 preprocessed product every 1/2 h for each hemisphere, and a match-up data file for each product. The MTSAT and the MSG products include hourly, 3-hourly, and 24-h merged composites. These products provide the user community with a reliable source of SST observations, with improved accuracy and increased coverage in important oceanographic, meteorological, and climatic regions.

Probabilistic physically-based cloud screening of satellite infra-red imagery for operational sea surface temperature retrieval

We propose and demonstrate a fully probabilistic (Bayesian) approach to the detection of cloudy pixels in thermal infrared (TIR) imagery observed from satellite over oceans. Using this approach, we show how to exploit the prior information and the fast forward modelling capability that are typically available in the operational context to obtain improved cloud detection. The probability of clear sky for each pixel is estimated by applying Bayes' theorem, and we describe how to apply Bayes' theorem to this problem in general terms. Joint probability density functions (PDFs) of the observations in the TIR channels are needed; the PDFs for clear conditions are calculable from forward modelling and those for cloudy conditions have been obtained empirically. Using analysis fields from numerical weather prediction as prior information, we apply the approach to imagery representative of imagers on polar-orbiting platforms. In comparison with the established cloud-screening scheme, the new technique decreases both the rate of failure to detect cloud contamination and the false-alarm rate by one quarter. The rate of occurrence of cloud-screening-related errors of >1 K in area-averaged SSTs is reduced by 83%. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.