Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Attention disengagement in children with developmental coordination disorder

Purpose. Previous research has shown that children with Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD) have poorly developed strategies for allocating attention. This study examines the allocation of attention and integration of visuo-spatial and motor systems in children with DCD in a motor (look+hit condition) and a motor-free (look condition) task. Method. Three groups of control children were used to compare the performance of a group of children with DCD. Children were seated in front of a central fixation point and six peripheral targets, and were asked to look at or hit targets when illuminated. Saccade/hand movement latencies were measured on gap trials (gap between fixation offset and target onset) and overlap trials (fixation offset and target onset overlapped). Results. DCD children were not slower than controls to disengage attention during the look condition. However, during the look+hit condition the DCD children showed a prolonged disengagement period, which was also seen in younger control children. Conclusions. The results suggest that DCD children may have deficits in the allocation of attention for action, in both the speed of onset of a movement and the accuracy of the movement. It is concluded that attention disengagement may contribute to problems of visuo-motor integration in DCD.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Early, late or very late? Timing acquisition and bilingualism

Research on child bilingualism accounts for differences in the course and the outcomes of monolingual and different types of bilingual language acquisition primarily from two perspectives: age of onset of exposure to the language(s) and the role of the input (Genesee, Paradis, & Crago, 2004; Meisel, 2009; Unsworth et al., 2014). Some findings suggest that early successive bilingual children may pattern similarly to simultaneous bilingual children, passing through different trajectories from child L2 learners due to a later age of onset in the latter group. Studies on bilingual development have also shown that input quantity in bilingual acquisition is considerably reduced, i.e., in each of their two languages, bilingual children are likely exposed to much less input than their monolingual peers (Paradis & Genesee, 1996; Unsworth, 2013b). At the same time, simultaneous bilingual children develop and attain competence in the two languages, sometimes without even an attested age delay compared to monolingual children (Paradis, Genesee & Crago, 2011). The implication is that even half of the input suffices for early language development, at least with respect to ‘core’ aspects of language, in whatever way ‘core’ is defined.My aim in this article is to consider how an additional, linguistic variable interacts with age of onset and input in bilingual development, namely, the timing in L1 development of the phenomena examined in bilingual children’s performance. Specifically, I will consider timing differences attested in the monolingual development of features and structures, distinguishing between early, late or ‘very late’ acquired phenomena. I will then argue that this three-way distinction reflects differences in the role of narrow syntax: early phenomena are core, parametric and narrowly syntactic, in contrast to late and very late phenomena, which involve syntax-external or even language-external resources too. I explore the consequences of these timing differences in monolingual development for bilingual development. I will review some findings from early (V2 in Germanic, grammatical gender in Greek), late (passives) and very late (grammatical gender in Dutch) phenomena in the bilingual literature and argue that early phenomena can differentiate between simultaneous and (early) successive bilingualism with an advantage for the former group, while the other two reveal similarly (high or low) performance across bilingual groups, differentiating them from monolinguals. The paper proposes that questions about the role of age of onset and language input in early bilingual development can only be meaningfully addressed when the properties and timing of the phenomena under investigation are taken into account.

Large-scale fields and flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Advances in our understanding of the large-scale electric and magnetic fields in the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system are reviewed. The literature appearing in the period January 1991–June 1993 is sorted into 8 general areas of study. The phenomenon of substorms receives the most attention in this literature, with the location of onset being the single most discussed issue. However, if the magnetic topology in substorm phases was widely debated, less attention was paid to the relationship of convection to the substorm cycle. A significantly new consensus view of substorm expansion and recovery phases emerged, which was termed the ‘Kiruna Conjecture’ after the conference at which it gained widespread acceptance. The second largest area of interest was dayside transient events, both near the magnetopause and the ionosphere. It became apparent that these phenomena include at least two classes of events, probably due to transient reconnection bursts and sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes. The contribution of both types of event to convection is controversial. The realisation that induction effects decouple electric fields in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, on time scales shorter than several substorm cycles, calls for broadening of the range of measurement techniques in both the ionosphere and at the magnetopause. Several new techniques were introduced including ionospheric observations which yield reconnection rate as a function of time. The magnetospheric and ionospheric behaviour due to various quasi-steady interplanetary conditions was studied using magnetic cloud events. For northward IMF conditions, reverse convection in the polar cap was found to be predominantly a summer hemisphere phenomenon and even for extremely rare prolonged southward IMF conditions, the magnetosphere was observed to oscillate through various substorm cycles rather than forming a steady-state convection bay.

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.

Reliability Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation in Parallel Systems

Relevant results for (sub-)distribution functions related to parallel systems are discussed. The reverse hazard rate is defined using the product integral. Consequently, the restriction of absolute continuity for the involved distributions can be relaxed. The only restriction is that the sets of discontinuity points of the parallel distributions have to be disjointed. Nonparametric Bayesian estimators of all survival (sub-)distribution functions are derived. Dual to the series systems that use minimum life times as observations, the parallel systems record the maximum life times. Dirichlet multivariate processes forming a class of prior distributions are considered for the nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the component distribution functions, and the system reliability. For illustration, two striking numerical examples are presented.

Asymptotic Skewness in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models

In this article, we give an asymptotic formula of order n(-1/2), where n is the sample size, for the skewness of the distributions of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in exponencial family nonlinear models. We generalize the result by Cordeiro and Cordeiro ( 2001). The formula is given in matrix notation and is very suitable for computer implementation and to obtain closed form expressions for a great variety of models. Some special cases and two applications are discussed.

Asymptotic skewness in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

The family of distributions proposed by Birnbaum and Saunders (1969) can be used to model lifetime data and it is widely applicable to model failure times of fatiguing materials. We give a simple matrix formula of order n(-1/2), where n is the sample size, for the skewness of the distributions of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, recently introduced by Lemonte and Cordeiro (2009). The formula is quite suitable for computer implementation, since it involves only simple operations on matrices and vectors, in order to obtain closed-form skewness in a wide range of nonlinear regression models. Empirical and real applications are analyzed and discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for duodenal levodopa infusion

Objective Levodopa in presence of decarboxylase inhibitors is following two-compartment kinetics and its effect is typically modelled using sigmoid Emax models. Pharmacokinetic modelling of the absorption phase of oral distributions is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. The purpose of this work was to identify and estimate a population pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic model for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Methods The modelling involved pooling data from two studies and fixing some parameters to values found in literature (Chan et al. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn. 2005 Aug;32(3-4):307-31). The first study involved 12 patients on 3 occasions and is described in Nyholm et al. Clinical Neuropharmacology 2003:26:156-63. The second study, PEDAL, involved 3 patients on 2 occasions. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Plasma samples and motor ratings (clinical assessment of motor function from video recordings on a treatment response scale between -3 and 3, where -3 represents severe parkinsonism and 3 represents severe dyskinesia.) were repeatedly collected until the clinical effect was back at baseline. At this point, the usual infusion rate was started and sampling continued for another two hours. Different structural absorption models and effect models were evaluated using the value of the objective function in the NONMEM package. Population mean parameter values, standard error of estimates (SE) and if possible, interindividual/interoccasion variability (IIV/IOV) were estimated. Results Our results indicate that Duodopa absorption can be modelled with an absorption compartment with an added bioavailability fraction and a lag time. The most successful effect model was of sigmoid Emax type with a steep Hill coefficient and an effect compartment delay. Estimated parameter values are presented in the table. Conclusions The absorption and effect models were reasonably successful in fitting observed data and can be used in simulation experiments.

Genes candidatos de suscetibilidade a pré-eclampsia: estudo de associação

Preeclampsia is a multifactorial disease of unknown etiology that features with wide clinical symptoms, ranging from mild preeclampsia to severe forms, as eclampsia and HELLP syndrome. As a complex disease, preeclampsia is also influenced by genetic and environmental factors. Aiming to identify preeclampsia susceptibility genes, we genotyped a total of 22 genetic markers (single nucleotides polymorphisms SNPs) distributed in six candidates genes (ACVR2A, FLT1, ERAP1, ERAP2, LNPEP e CRHBP). By a case-control approach, the genotypic frequencies were compared between normotensive (control group) and preeclamptic women. The case s group was classified according to the disease clinical form in: preeclampsia, eclampsia and HELLP syndrome. As results we found the following genetic association: 1) ACVR2A and preeclampsia; 2) FLT1 and severe preeclampsia; 3) ERAP1 and eclampsia; 4) FLT1 and HELLP syndrome. When stratifying preeclampsia group according to symptoms severity (mild and severe preeclampsia) or according to the time of onset (early and late preeclampsia), it was detected that early preeclampsia is strongly associated to risk preeclampsia, eclampsia and HELLP syndrome have different genetic bases, although FLT1 gene seems to be involved in preeclampsia and HELLP syndrome pathophisiology

Genetic parameters for buffalo milk yield and milk quality traits using Bayesian inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Compared boron uptake and translocation in cotton cultivars

O boro (B) tem baixa mobilidade no floema das plantas e é reconhecidamente o micronutriente cuja deficiência é mais comum no algodoeiro. Neste trabalho foi estudada a absorção e mobilidade do B em cultivares de algodão. O experimento foi conduzido em casa de vegetação, e as plantas foram cultivadas em solução nutritiva. Os tratamentos foram constituídos de três cultivares de algodão (FMT 701, DP 604BG e FMX 993) e cinco doses de B (0,0; 2,5; 5,0; 10,0 e 20,0 µmol L-1). As avaliações foram feitas em quatro semanas consecutivas, a partir da primeira semana após emissão do primeiro botão floral. A época de aparecimento e a intensidade de sintomas de deficiência de boro entre cultivares de algodão são diferentes. A cultivar DP604BG é inicialmente menos exigente em B, porém há necessidade de maior disponibilidade desse micronutriente no meio nutritivo para evitar o aparecimento de deficiência. O crescimento do algodoeiro é prejudicado pela carência de B, independentemente das diferenças no aparecimento de sintomas, não havendo diferença entre as cultivares.

Efeitos da eletroestimulação do músculo vasto medial oblíquo em portadores de síndrome da dor patelofemoral: uma análise eletromiográfica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Formação de caudas maxwellianas no Contexto da rotação estelar

In this Thesis, we analyzed the formation of maxwellian tails of the distributions of the rotational velocity in the context of the out of equilibrium Boltzmann Gibbs statistical mechanics. We start from a unified model for the angular momentum loss rate which made possible the construction of a general theory for the rotational decay in the which, finally, through the compilation between standard Maxwellian and the relation of rotational decay, we defined the (_, _) Maxwellian distributions. The results reveal that the out of equilibrium Boltzmann Gibbs statistics supplies us results as good as the one of the Tsallis and Kaniadakis generalized statistics, besides allowing fittings controlled by physical properties extracted of the own theory of stellar rotation. In addition, our results point out that these generalized statistics converge to the one of Boltzmann Gibbs when we inserted, in your respective functions of distributions, a rotational velocity defined as a distribution