An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Communication during brief intervention, intention to change, and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between patient's intention to change regarding future alcohol consumption following brief alcohol intervention (BAI) and changes in alcohol consumption 12-months later and the communication characteristics between patient and counselor during BAI. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Data from 367 patients (experimental arm) of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial were used to assess the effectiveness of BAI among hazardous drinkers attending an Emergency Department (Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland). Alcohol outcome measures at baseline and 12 months follow-up included usual number of drinks per week, monthly frequency of heavy episodic drinking (5 or more standard drinks for men; 4 or more for women), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score. In addition, the communication characteristics between patient and counselor were analyzed via tape recordings using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC) from 97 participants. Patient readiness and importance to change on a 10-point Likert scale (readiness/importance to change ruler) was asked during BAI, and patient intention to change alcohol consumption (yes/no) was asked at the last step. Differences in alcohol outcome at follow-up between the 367 patients who did or did not have an intention to change consumption at baseline were compared, as were differences between these two groups in communication characteristics for the 97 who completed tape recordings. RESULTS: Patients with an intention to decrease alcohol consumption reduced alcohol use and related problems more often, and reported higher levels of importance and readiness to change than did their counterparts. Analyses of MISC-coded data showed a significantly higher use of MI-consistent skills among those with a moderation intention, but no group differences on the 8 other counselor communication skills measures were found. Analyses of patient speech during the intervention indicated that those with an intention to change their alcohol consumption significantly more often self-explored personal ambivalence towards alcohol, expressed more intensely their ability, commitment, desire, need and reason to change their alcohol use than did those in the no decrease group. CONCLUSIONS: The intention expressed by hazardous drinkers when concluding BAI is associated with both patient change talk during BAI and drinking outcome 12 months later, but is mainly independent of counselor communication skills. This intention may be an important clinical indicator of which hazardous drinkers are most likely to improve after BAI.

Strategy for Reducing Alcohol Related Harm (PDF 1044KB)

Alcohol, used responsibly and in moderation, is a normal and enjoyable aspect of everyday life for most people. Everyone is familiar with the wide variety of social settings in which it is consumed, ranging from casual enjoyment or relaxation to celebratory and ceremonial occasions. This widespread use of alcohol means that the manufacture and retailing of alcohol products, and its distribution through bars, clubs, restaurants and off-licences involves an estimated 32,000 jobs, both full and part time. The economic significance of this to society here is obvious. åÊ

Working Together To Reduce The Harms Caused By Alcohol Misuse: Report of the Working Group on Alcohol Misuse

The overall aim of the National Alcohol Policy, launched in 1996, is to reduce the level of alcohol-related problems and to promote moderation for those who wish to drink. This report complements the work of the Strategic Task Force on Alcohol (STFA) which takes primarily a public health approach as outlined in paragraph 1.1 of the Second Report of the STFA which states that â?othis approach, endorsed by the WHO, recognises that alcohol contributes to a range of health, social and behavioural problems- in terms of its toxicity, its potential to create dependency and its negative impact on human behaviour. The overall level of alcohol consumption and the predominant pattern of drinking in the population, are predictive of alcohol problems in any given society. Therefore, alcohol policy must take into account the total drinking population when defining the scope of public health action as well targeting high risk groups and individual high risk drinkers.â?Âù Download the Report (PDF, 202kb)

PHA reinforce sensible drinking in Alcohol Awareness Week

Recent health figures show that 20% of adults surveyed admitted to drinking over the weekly alcohol limits (1)so the Public Health Agency is using Alcohol Awareness Week (14-20th November) to reinforce the importance of drinking sensibly and staying within safe alcohol limits.Government guidelines on safe drinking are 21 units per week for males and 14 units per week for females. Staying within these limits is important as excessive and binge drinking can lead, in the short term, to increased risk of accidents, antisocial behaviour, impact on relationships, unplanned pregnancy. Longer term it can damage the liver, heart, brain and stomach, not to mention the other human costs, and costs to the economy and society as a whole.Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager and Drugs and Alcohol Lead, said: "The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety's drinking limits are in place to encourage the public to develop safe and sensible drinking habits. However, these recent figures highlight that not everyone is adhering to these limits. It is crucial that those who do decide to have a drink do so in moderation and stick to the recommended limits to prevent any long or short term damages".The message is clear, if you drink, remember to be smart and enjoy alcohol within safe limits. People should follow the recommended daily alcohol intake. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 units. Remember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or an upcoming holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.infoReference(1) Health Survey Northern Ireland: first results from the 2010/2011 survey (2011) DHSSPS, http://dhsspsni.giv/index/stats_research/stats-public-health.htm

National Alcohol Policy Ireland

The National Alcohol Policy is directed at reducing the prevalence of alcohol-related problems through an emphasis on moderation in alcohol consumption. The importance of a comprehensive alcohol policy was highlighted when Ireland endorsed the European Charter on Alcohol in December 1995 along with 48 other Member States of the WHO European Region. The alcohol-related problems are multidimensional, therefore the solutions most be multi-sectoral. This means that commitment to the National Alcohol Policy must be on the agenda of policy makers in all sectors and at all levels. An Alcohol Policy requires both environmental and individual strategies. There is strong evidence that policies which influence access to alcohol, control pricing through taxation and other public health measures, can have a positive impact on curtailing the health and social burden resulting from drinking (Edwards et al. 1994). However, a key to the effectiveness of such strategies is public support, enforcement and maintenance of the policies. In examining the rationale for a National Alcohol Policy a number of elements have been identified. Research is urgently required to identify attitudes and patterns of alcohol consumption across the population and within sub-groups of the population. Based on sound research, a sensible drinking message of Less is Better should form an educational empowerment programme with regional and local initiatives as a required and integral part of such a campaign. A health education programme in all schools should be part of the core curriculum. The availability and effectiveness of treatment services need to be established. Action to contain the availability of alcohol could be achieved by reducing the number of special exemptions for longer opening hours and controlling access to underage drinking by ID schemes nation-wide. The enforcement of drink driving legislation including random breath testing needs to be continued to reduce alcohol-related traffic accidents. All levels of the Drinks Industry should recognise that people have the right to be safeguarded from pressures to drink. Finally, a National Alcohol Policy could be co-ordinated by a wider National Substance Use Surveillance Unit.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Effects of dietary protein type on oxidized cholesterol-induced alteration in age-related modulation of lipid metabolism and indices of immune function in rats.

Exogenous oxidized cholesterol disturbs both lipid metabolism and immune functions. Therefore, it may perturb these modulations with ageing. Effects of the dietary protein type on oxidized cholesterol-induced modulations of age-related changes in lipid metabolism and immune function was examined using differently aged (4 weeks versus 8 months) male Sprague-Dawley rats when casein, soybean protein or milk whey protein isolate (WPI) was the dietary protein source, respectively. The rats were given one of the three proteins in diet containing 0.2% oxidized cholesterols mixture. Soybean protein, as compared with the other two proteins, significantly lowered both the serum thiobarbituric acid reactive substances value and cholesterol, whereas it elevated the ratio of high density lipoprotein-cholesterol/cholesterol in young rats, but not in adult. Moreover, soybean protein, but not casein and WPI, suppressed the elevation of Delta6 desaturation indices of phospholipids in both liver and spleen, particularly in young. On the other hand, WPI, compared to the other two proteins, inhibited the leukotriene B4 production of spleen, irrespective of age. Soybean protein reduced the ratio of CD4(+)/CD8(+) T-cells in splenic lymphocytes. Therefore, the levels of immunoglobulin (Ig)A, IgE and IgG in serum were lowered in rats given soybean protein in both age groups except for IgA in adult, although these observations were not shown in rats given other proteins. Thus, various perturbations of lipid metabolism and immune function caused by oxidized cholesterol were modified depending on the type of dietary protein. The moderation by soybean protein on the change of lipid metabolism seems to be susceptible in young rats whose homeostatic ability is immature. These observations may be exerted through both the promotion of oxidized cholesterol excretion to feces and the change of hormonal release, while WPI may suppress the disturbance of immune function by oxidized cholesterol in both ages. This alleviation may be associated with a large amount of lactoglobulin in WPI. These results thus showed a possibility that oxidized cholesterol-induced perturbations of age-related changes of lipid metabolism and immune function can be moderated by both the selection and combination of dietary protein.

Análisis de contenido de la lista dedistribución IweTel (1998-2000)

La llista de distribució s'ha mostrat durant l'última dècada com una eina eficaç a l'hora de vertebrar la comunicació professional. De fet, és un primer pas cap a les comunitats virtuals. En aquest article s'estudia l'evolució d'un cas concret, IweTel, i de l'ús que els subscriptors van fer -ne, a partir de l'anàlisi de contingut dels missatges que van ser enviats entre 1998 i 2000. De l'estudi es desprèn que es tracta d'una llista utilitzada fonamentalment per a la comunicació professional i l'intercanvi d'informació, encara que pateix d'una falta notòria d'implicació activa per part dels seus subscriptors. Per altra banda, encara que han estat notables les millores fruit de la moderació, hi ha una absència viciosa de contingut científic o acadèmic en els debats desenvolupats.

Compositional data analysis in archaeometry

We shall call an n × p data matrix fully-compositional if the rows sum to a constant, and sub-compositional if the variables are a subset of a fully-compositional data set1. Such data occur widely in archaeometry, where it is common to determine the chemical composition of ceramic, glass, metal or other artefacts using techniques such as neutron activation analysis (NAA), inductively coupled plasma spectroscopy (ICPS), X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) etc. Interest often centres on whether there are distinct chemical groups within the data and whether, for example, these can be associated with different origins or manufacturing technologies

Funcionalització regioselectiva d'una cetona amb metal·lacarborans polianiònics

L’ús de metal·lacarborans en la síntesi de compostos polianiònics amb un alt contingut en bor i amb bons rendiments és un tema d’alt interès i estudi al grup de Síntesi Inorgànica i Catàlisi de l’ICMAB. Els metal·lacarborans presenten diverses aplicacions innovadores com la BNCT (Boron Neutron Capture Therapy),1 tractament d’aigües residuals,2 activitats catalítiques3 i com a agents dopants de membranes polimèriques conductores.4 Amb la perspectiva d’emprar clústers de bor per materials moleculars funcionalitzats, hem iniciat una investigació que busca la síntesi de productes híbrids amb múltiples elements electroactius (metal·lacarborans) i el grup funcional carbonil, que gràcies a la seva reactivitat coneguda ens permetrà aplicar les molècules sintetitzades a futures reaccions i aplicacions. Una de les condicions inicials plantejades en aquesta investigació és l’ús de productes químics assequibles i de gran disponibilitat, per tal de poder assegurar l’obtenció de precursors per a futures aplicacions amb bons rendiments i ràpids de sintetitzar. Per assolir aquest objectiu es van iniciar les investigacions amb la cetona més simple coneguda, l’acetona (CH3-CO-CH3) (pKa = 19.3) com a producte de partida. A partir de la reacció d’aquesta amb una base forta no nucleòfila es genera CH3-COCH2 (-). Si s’aconsegueix prevenir o minimitzar la reacció d’addició aldòlica, l’anió CH3- CO-CH2 (-) pot atacar nucleofílicament al carboni contigu al catió oxoni5 de la molècula de cobaltabisdicarballur dioxanat (cosà dioxanat), [3,3’-Co(8-(OCH2CH2)2-1,2- C2B9H10)(1’,2’-C2B9H11)], generant un derivat del cosà dioxanat que conté un grup carbonil. Aquest procediment pot ser repetit per introduir diverses unitats de metal·lacarborans (cosà, fesà, etc.), tot i que aquest procés presenta una gran dispersió de subproductes, fet que fa baixar el rendiment global i li resta interès. Un procediment molt més efectiu i que dóna un control de la regioselectivitat molt major dels centres electroactius incorporats és la síntesi acetoacètica (pKa H intercarbonílic = 10.7). Múltiples molècules homo i hetero polianiòniques amb metal·lacarborans han estat sintetitzades amb èxit en aquest treball, amb un control regioselectiu molt precís mitjançant aquest mètode sintètic, i caracteritzades per mètodes electroquímics.

Desarrollo de un método para acoplar arenos a metalacarboranos

El uso de metalacarboranos en la síntesis de compuestos aril-cobaltobis(dicarballuro) ha despertado un nuevo tema de interés y de estudio en el grupo de Síntesi Inorgànica i Catàlisi del ICMAB-CSIC. Los metalacarboranos presentan diversas aplicaciones innovadoras como la BNCT (Boron Neutron Capture Therapy), el tratamiento de aguas residuales, actividades catalíticas, como agentes dopantes en membranas poliméricas conductoras, y como integrantes en sensores potenciométricos, entre otros. El principal objetivo de este trabajo de investigación ha consistido en desarrollar un método de acoplamiento B–C sobre el anión sándwich [3,3’-Co-(1,2-C2B9H11)2]- para la formación de nuevos derivados aril-cobalto-bis(dicarballuro); éstos se han sintetizado por su posible capacidad fotoactiva. Este acoplamiento transcurre mediante una reacción de sustitución electrófila aromática (SEAr) sobre el anillo aromático o desde la óptica del metalacarborano, mediante una sustitución nucleófila inducida electrofilicamente (EINS). Dicha reacción requiere el uso de un ácido de Lewis como catalizador. El hecho que se haya utilizado AlCl3 como catalizador, hace que la reacción que se desarrolla en este trabajo recuerde de alguna manera a una reacción de Friedel-Crafts, pese a que la reacción está dirigida a la formación de un enlace B–C mediado por un ácido de Lewis. El principal problema de las reacciones de Friedel-Crafts es la elevada cantidad de areno que se precisa para llevar a cabo la reacción, debido a que el disolvente empleado puede actuar como fuente de electrófilos. El procedimiento empleado en nuestro caso utiliza el mesitileno como disolvente, el cual posee un gran impedimento estérico y un alto punto de ebullición. De esta manera, se puede realizar esta reacción utilizando entre 1.5 y 10 equivalentes de areno respecto al cobalto-bis(dicarballuro) sin que el disolvente actúe como reactivo. Se han estudiado y optimizado las condiciones experimentales para que el método sintético que genera el enlace B–C sea lo más universal posible para cualquier tipo de anillo aromático. Se han probado una gran diversidad de anillos aromáticos, desde anillos aromáticos fuertemente activados a los más desactivados, así como anillos aromáticos heterocíclicos. Finalmente, las condiciones de síntesis extraídas de este estudio son muy satisfactorias para los anillos activados probados y para los anillos débilmente desactivados. En cambio, para los arenos fuertemente desactivados, los rendimientos de la reacción han sido bajos. Por otro lado, las pruebas realizadas sobre los anillos heterocíclicos no han sido exitosas y no se ha producido el acoplamiento B–C.

Biodistribution of meglumine antimoniate in healthy and Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi-infected BALB/c mice

Pentavalent antimonials such as meglumine antimoniate (MA) are the primary treatments for leishmaniasis, a complex disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania . Despite over 70 years of clinical use, their mechanisms of action, toxicity and pharmacokinetics have not been fully elucidated. Radiotracer studies performed on animals have the potential to play a major role in pharmaceutical development. The aims of this study were to prepare an antimony radiotracer by neutron irradiation of MA and to determine the biodistribution of MA in healthy and Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi-infected mice. MA (Glucantime(r)) was neutron irradiated inside the IEA-R1 nuclear reactor, producing two radioisotopes, 122Sb and 124Sb, with high radionuclidic purity and good specific activity. This irradiated compound presented anti-leishmanial activity similar to that of non-irradiated MA in both in vitro and in vivo evaluations. In the biodistribution studies, healthy mice showed higher uptake of antimony in the liver than infected mice and elimination occurred primarily through biliary excretion, with a small proportion of the drug excreted by the kidneys. The serum kinetic curve was bi-exponential, with two compartments: the central compartment and another compartment associated with drug excretion. Radiotracers, which can be easily produced by neutron irradiation, were demonstrated to be an interesting tool for answering several questions regarding antimonial pharmacokinetics and chemotherapy.