Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Cerebrospinal fluid in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: a consensus report.

The Committee of the European Concerted Action for Multiple Sclerosis (Charcot Foundation) organised five workshops to discuss CSF analytical standards in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. This consensus report from 12 European countries summarises the results of those workshops. It is hoped that neurologists will confer with their colleagues in clinical chemistry to arrange the best possible local practice. The most sensitive method for the detection of oligoclonal immunoglobulin bands is isoelectric focusing. The same amounts of IgG in parallel CSF and serum samples are used and oligoclonal bands are revealed with IgG specific antibody staining. All laboratories performing isoelectric focusing should check their technique at least annually using "blind" standards for the five different CSF and serum patterns. Quantitative measurements of IgG production in the CNS are less sensitive than isoelectric focusing. The preferred method for detection of blood-CSF barrier dysfunction is the albumin quotient. The CSF albumin or total protein concentrations are less satisfactory. These results must be interpreted with reference to the age of the patient and the local method of determination. Cells should be counted. The normal value is no more than 4 cells/microliters. Among evolving optional tests, measurement of the combined local synthesis of antibodies against measles, rubella, and/or varicella zoster could represent a significant advance if it offers higher specificity (not sensitivity) for identifying chronic rather than acute inflammation. Other tests that may have useful correlations with clinical indices include those for oligoclonal free light chains, IgM, IgA, or myelin basic protein concentrations.

Thrombose veineuse cérébrale après ponction lombaire et stéroïdes intraveineux chez deux patients souffrant d'une sclérose en plaques [Cerebral venous thrombosis after lumbar puncture and intravenous steroids in two patients with multiple sclerosis]

Two patients affected with a multiple sclerosis developed cerebral venous thrombosis after lumbar puncture and treatment with intravenous methylprednisolone. In one case, the course was favorable. The second patient died in spite of intracerebral thrombolysis. The autopsy confirmed the diagnosis of cerebral venous thrombosis and multiple sclerosis. We discuss the relationship between lumbar puncture, steroid treatment and cerebral venous thrombosis.

Sclérose en plaques: au-delà des traitements de première ligne [Multiple sclerosis: beyong first line therapies].

We are currently experiencing a key period in the management of patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. The application of new criteria allows early diagnosis, thus at a stage when the available immune treatments are the most likely to show a good efficacy. The therapeutic offer is expanding but its complexity too. It is thus important, for a given patient, to assess as precisely as possible the degree of severity of his/her disease, in order to give the drug with the optimal risk/benefit ratio.

Zoledronate inhibits endothelial cell adhesion, migration and survival through the suppression of multiple, prenylation-dependent signaling pathways.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence indicates that zoledronate, a nitrogen-containing bisphosphonate used to treat conditions of increased bone resorption, may have anti-angiogenic activity. The endothelial cells signaling events modulated by zoledronate remain largely elusive. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this work was to identify signaling events suppressed by zoledronate in endothelial cells and responsible for some of its biological effects. METHODS: Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were exposed to zoledronate, isoprenoid analogs (i.e. farnesol and geranylgeraniol) and various inhibitors of signaling, and the effect on adhesion, survival, migration, actin cytoskeleton and signaling events characterized. RESULTS: Zoledronate reduced Ras prenylation, Ras and RhoA translocation to the membrane, and sustained ERK1/2 phosphorylation and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) induced JNK phosphorylation. Isoprenoid analogs attenuated zoledronate effects on HUVEC adhesion, actin stress fibers and focal adhesions, migration and survival. Isoprenoid analogs also restored Ras prenylation, RhoA translocation to the membrane, sustained FAK and ERK1/2 phosphorylation and prevented suppression of protein kinase B (PKB) and JNK phosphorylation in HUVEC exposed to TNF in the presence of zoledronate. Pharmacological inhibition of Rock, a RhoA target mediating actin fiber formation, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase, an activator of PKB, MEK1/2, an activator of ERK1/2, and JNK, recapitulated individual zoledronate effects, consistent with the involvement of these molecules and pathways and their inhibition in the zoledronate effects. CONCLUSIONS: This work has demonstrated that zoledronate inhibits HUVEC adhesion, survival, migration and actin stress fiber formation by interfering with protein prenylation and has identified ERK1/2, JNK, Rock, FAK and PKB as kinases affected by zoledronate in a prenylation-dependent manner.

Choice of partners in multiple two-person prisoner's dilemma games: An experimental study

We examine the effect of unilateral and mutual partner selection in the context of prisoner's dilemmas experimentally. Subjects play simultaneously several finitely repeated two-person prisoner's dilemma games. We find that unilateral choice is the best system. It leads to low defection and fewer singles than with mutual choice. Furthermore, with the unilateral choice setup we are able to show that intendingdefectors are more likely to try to avoid a match than intending cooperators. We compare our results of multiple games with single game PD-experiments and find no difference in aggregate behavior. Hence the multiple game technique is robust and might therefore be an important tool in the future for testing the use of mixed strategies.

Evolutionary genetics of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi - causes and consequences of multiple genomes in Glomus intraradices

Résumé Les champignons endomycorhiziens arbusculaires (CEA) forment des symbioses avec la plupart des plantes terrestres. Les CEA influencent la croissance des plantes et la biodiversité. Ils sont supposés avoir évolué de manière asexuée pendant au moins 400 millions d'années et aucune diversification morphologique majeure n'a été constatée. Pour ces raisons, les CEA sont considérés comme d'anciens asexués. Très peu d'espèces sont connues actuellement. Les individus de ces champignons contiennent des noyaux génétiquement différents dans un cytoplasme continu. La signification évolutive, la variabilité et la maintenance des génomes multiples au sein des individus sont inconnues. Ce travail a démontré qu'une population du CEA Glomus intraradices est génétiquement très variable. Nous avons conclu que les plantes hôtes plutôt que la différenciation géographique devraient être responsables de cette grande diversité. Puis nous avons cherché l'existence de recombinaison entre génotypes dans une population. Nous avons détecté un groupe recombinant au sein de la population, ce qui met en doute l'état d'anciens asexués des CEA. Nous avons également détecté l'occurrence de fusions d'hyphes et l'échange de noyaux entre isolats génétiquement différents. La descendance hybride issue de cet échange était viable et distincte phénotypiquement des isolats parentaux. En résumé, ce travail identifie des événements cruciaux dans le cycle de vie des CEA qui ont le potentiel d'influencer l'évolution de génomes multiples. L'étude des conséquences de ces événements sur les interactions avec les plantes hôtes pourrait éclaircir significativement la compréhension de la symbiose entre plantes et CEA. Abstract Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are important symbionts of most land plants. AMF influence plant growth and biodiversity. Very few extant species are described. AMF are thought to have evolved asexually for at least 400 million years and no major morphological diversification has occurred. Due to these reasons, they were termed `ancient asexuals'. Fungal individuals harbour genetically different nuclei in a continuous cytoplasm. The variability, maintenance and evolutionary significance of multiple genomes within individuals are unknown. This work showed that a population of the AMF Glomus intraradices harbours very high genetic diversity. We concluded that host plants rather than geographic differentiation were responsible for this diversity. Furthermore, we investigated whether recombination occurred among genotypes of a G. intraradices population. The identification of a core group of recombining genotypes in the population refutes the assumption of ancient asexuality in AMF. We found that genetically different isolates can form hyphal fusions and exchange nuclei. The hybrid progeny produced by the exchange was viable and phenotypically distinct from the parental isolates. Taken together, this work provided evidence for key events in the AMF life cycle, that influence the evolution of multiple genomes. Studying the consequences of these events on the interaction with host plants may significantly further the understanding of the AMF-plant symbiosis.

Evidence for the evolution of multiple genomes in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

Ancient asexuals directly contradict the evolutionary theories that explain why organisms should evolve a sexual life history. The mutualistic, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are thought to have been asexual for approximately 400 million years. In the absence of sex, highly divergent descendants of formerly allelic nucleotide sequences are thought to evolve in a genome. In mycorrhizal fungi, where individual offspring receive hundreds of nuclei from the parent, it has been hypothesized that a population of genetically different nuclei should evolve within one individual. Here we use DNA-DNA fluorescent in situ hybridization to show that genetically different nuclei co-exist in individual arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. We also show that the population genetics techniques used in other organisms are unsuitable for detecting recombination because the assumptions and underlying processes do not fit the fungal genomic structure shown here. Instead we used a phylogenetic approach to show that the within-individual genetic variation that occurs in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi probably evolved through accumulation of mutations in an essentially clonal genome, with some infrequent recombination events. We conclude that mycorrhizal fungi have evolved to be multi-genomic.

Exact and approximate stepdown methods for multiple hypothesis testing

Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.

Multiple prisoner's dilemma games with (out) an outside option: An experimental study

Experiments in which subjects play simultaneously several finite prisoner's dilemma supergames with and without an outside optionreveal that: (i) subjects use probabilistic start and endeffect behaviour, (ii) the freedom to choose whether to play the prisoner's dilemma game enhances cooperation, (iii) if the payoff for simultaneous defection is negative, subjects' tendency to avoid losses leads them to cooperate; while this tendency makes them stick to mutual defection if its payoff is positive.

Computation of multiple correspondence analysis, with code in R

The generalization of simple correspondence analysis, for two categorical variables, to multiple correspondence analysis where they may be three or more variables, is not straighforward, both from a mathematical and computational point of view. In this paper we detail the exact computational steps involved in performing a multiple correspondence analysis, including the special aspects of adjusting the principal inertias to correct the percentages of inertia, supplementary points and subset analysis. Furthermore, we give the algorithm for joint correspondence analysis where the cross-tabulations of all unique pairs of variables are analysed jointly. The code in the R language for every step of the computations is given, as well as the results of each computation.

Multiple correspondence analysis of a subset of response categories

In the analysis of multivariate categorical data, typically the analysis of questionnaire data, it is often advantageous, for substantive and technical reasons, to analyse a subset of response categories. In multiple correspondence analysis, where each category is coded as a column of an indicator matrix or row and column of Burt matrix, it is not correct to simply analyse the corresponding submatrix of data, since the whole geometric structure is different for the submatrix . A simple modification of the correspondence analysis algorithm allows the overall geometric structure of the complete data set to be retained while calculating the solution for the selected subset of points. This strategy is useful for analysing patterns of response amongst any subset of categories and relating these patterns to demographic factors, especially for studying patterns of particular responses such as missing and neutral responses. The methodology is illustrated using data from the International Social Survey Program on Family and Changing Gender Roles in 1994.

Contracting externalities and multiple equilibria in sectors: Theory and evidence

We consider an economy where the production technology has constantreturns to scale but where in the descentralized equilibrium thereare aggregate increasing returns to scale. The result follows froma positive contracting externality among firms. If a firms issurrounded by more firms, employees have more opportunitiesoutside their own firm. This improves employees' incentives toinvest in the presence of ex post renegotiation at the firm level,at not cost. Our leading result is that if a region is sparselypopulated or if the degree of development in the region is lowenough, there are multiple equilibria in the level of sectorialemployment. From the theoretical model we derive a non-linearfirst-order censored difference equation for sectoral employment.Our results are strongly consistent with the multiple equilibriahypothesis and the existence of a sectoral critical scale (belowwich the sector follows a delocation process). The scale of theregions' population and the degree of development reduce thecritical scale of the sector.

Case study of intracerebral plasmacytoma as an initial presentation of multiple myeloma.

Cerebral involvement is an uncommon complication of multiple myeloma. We report on a 64-year-old man hospitalized for a partial seizure. MRI showed two intracerebral lesions, which proved to be plasmacytomas. After complete staging, we retained the diagnosis of immunoglobulin G lambda-type multiple myeloma with CNS involvement. Cytogenetic analysis of plasma cells detected a deletion in the p53 gene at 17p13.1. Despite cranial radiotherapy and systemic chemotherapy, the patient's disease progressed rapidly and he died five months after diagnosis. What makes this case unusual is that overt multiple myeloma had been absent before cerebral involvement was discovered. It confirms the extremely poor prognosis of patients with CNS myeloma even in the presence of aggressive treatment. Cytogenetic abnormalities could be a marker of chromosomal and genetic instability, conferring to multiple myeloma a more aggressive profile.