Change of Electricity Distribution Industry: Drivers and Opening Business Opportunities

As a result of the recent regulatory amendments and other development trends in the electricity distribution business, the sector is currently witnessing radical restructuring that will eventually impact the business logics of the sector. This report represents upcoming changes in the electricity distribution industry and concentrates on the factors that are expected to be the most fundamental ones. Electricity network companies nowadays struggle with legislative and regulatory requirements that focus on both the operational efficiency and the reliability of electricity distribution networks. The forces that have an impact on the distribution network companies can be put into three main categories that define the transformation at a general level. Those are: (1) a requirement for a more functional marketplace for energy, (2) environmental aspects (combating climate change etc.), and (3) a strongly emphasized requirement for the security of energy supply. The first point arises from the legislators’ attempt to increase competition in electricity retail markets, the second one concerns both environmental protection and human safety issues, and the third one indicates societies’ reduced willingness to accept interruptions in electricity supply. In the future, regulation of electricity distribution business may lower the threshold for building more weather-resistant networks, which in turn means increased underground cabling. This development pattern is reinforced by tightening safety and environmental regulations that ultimately make the overhead lines expensive to build and maintain. The changes will require new approaches particularly in network planning, construction, and maintenance. The concept for planning, constructing, and maintaining cable networks is necessary because the interdependencies between network operations are strong, in other words, the nature of the operation requires a linkage to other operations.

Utilization of a Time Domain Simulator in the Technical and Economic Analysis of a Wind Turbine Electric Drive Train

The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Public-Private Partnerships: Managing organizational change for acquiring value creative capabilities

The objective of the dissertation is to examine organizational responses of public actors to customer requirements which drive the transformation of value networks and promote public-private partnership in the electricity distribution industry and elderly care sectors. The research bridges the concept of offering to value networks where capabilities can be acquired for novel product concepts. The research contributes to recent literature, re-examining theories on interactions of customer requirements and supply management. A critical realist case study approach is applied to this abductive the research which directs to describe causalities in the analyzed phenomena. The presented evidence is based on three sources, which are in-depth interviews, archival analysis and the Delphi method. Service provision requires awareness on technology and functionalities of offering. Moreover, service provision includes interactions of multiple partners, which suggests the importance of the co-operative orientation of actors. According to the findings,portfolio management has a key role when intelligent solutions are implemented in public service provision because its concepts involve a variety of resources from multiple suppliers. However, emergent networks are not functional if they lack leaders who have access to the customer interface, have power to steer networks and a capability to build offerings. Public procurement policies were recognized to focus on a narrow scope in which price is a key factor in decisions. In the future, the public sector has to implement technology strategies and portfolio management, which mean longterm platform development and commitment to partnerships. On the other hand, the service providers should also be more aware of offerings into which their products will be integrated in the future. This requires making the customer’s voice in product development and co-operation in order to increase the interconnectivity of products.

Comparative analysis of different meat traceability systems using multiple criteria and a social network approach

The adoption of a proper traceability system is being incorporated into meat production practices as a method of gaining consumer confidence. The various partners operating in the chain of meat production can be considered a social network, and they have the common goal of generating a communication process that can ensure each characteristic of the product, including safety. This study aimed to select the most appropriate meat traceability system “from farm to fork” that could be applied to Brazilian beef and pork production for international trade. The research was done in three steps. The first used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting the best on-farm livestock traceability. In the second step, the actors in the meat production chain were identified to build a framework and defined each role in the network. In the third step, the selection of the traceability system was done. Results indicated that with an electronic traceability system, it is possible to acquire better connections between the links in the chain and to provide the means for managing uncertainties by creating structures that facilitate information flow more efficiently.

Strategic Change Management Readiness Evaluation in Organizations

The objective of this study and paper was to find out how the strategic change management readiness in organizations can be evaluated. Based on theory and prior CMP model, the framework of strategic change management and issues related to it was constructed. Additionally a synthesis of the most important phases and interventions in strategic change process and project was created. These phases were starting point, planning, implementation and evaluation and securing phases. Qualitative approach was utilized in the empirical part of the study due to the need for in-depth information about the topics surveyed through semi-structured interview. There were 18 responders from the top management of large Finnish companies. In this study interventions, strengths and weaknesses during the various phases of strategic change projects were revealed. Additionally the interviewees’ opinion on the importance of each of the interventions in strategic change project success was asked. According to this study, the most important phases recognized through researching theoretical literature, prior CMP model and empirical information in starting point phase were analysis of current and desired state and need for change accompanied with guiding coalition formulation. In planning phase the most important interventions were project organization formulation, action plan creation, analysis of prior and current strategic change projects and organizational structure analysis. In the change project implementation phase the interventions of importance were launch, quick wins, sense of urgency creation, change resistance management and change communications. In the final evaluation and securing phase project evaluation was the most important intervention. Based on the results a tool for creating change management readiness profile was created.

Multiple scales analysis of nonlinear oscillations of a portal frame foundation for several machines

An analytical study of the nonlinear vibrations of a multiple machines portal frame foundation is presented. Two unbalanced rotating machines are considered, none of them resonant with the lower natural frequencies of the supporting structure. Their combined frequencies is set in such a way as to excite, due to nonlinear behavior of the frame, either the first anti-symmetrical mode (sway) or the first symmetrical mode. The physical and geometrical characteristics of the frame are chosen to tune the natural frequencies of these two modes into a 1:2 internal resonance. The problem is reduced to a two degrees of freedom model and its nonlinear equations of motions are derived via a Lagrangian approach. Asymptotic perturbation solutions of these equations are obtained via the Multiple Scales Method.

Green supplier selection via Multiple Criteria Data Envelopment Analysis

An appropriate supplier selection and its profound effects on increasing the competitive advantage of companies has been widely discussed in supply chain management (SCM) literature. By raising environmental awareness among companies and industries they attach more importance to sustainable and green activities in selection procedures of raw material providers. The current thesis benefits from data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to evaluate the relative efficiency of suppliers in the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for green supplier selection. We incorporate the pollution of suppliers as an undesirable output into DEA. However, to do so, two conventional DEA model problems arise: the lack of the discrimination power among decision making units (DMUs) and flexibility of the inputs and outputs weights. To overcome these limitations, we use multiple criteria DEA (MCDEA) as one alternative. By applying MCDEA the number of suppliers which are identified as efficient will be decreased and will lead to a better ranking and selection of the suppliers. Besides, in order to compare the performance of the suppliers with an ideal supplier, a “virtual” best practice supplier is introduced. The presence of the ideal virtual supplier will also increase the discrimination power of the model for a better ranking of the suppliers. Therefore, a new MCDEA model is proposed to simultaneously handle undesirable outputs and virtual DMU. The developed model is applied for green supplier selection problem. A numerical example illustrates the applicability of the proposed model.

Analysis of polymorphism at site -174 G/C of interleukin-6 promoter region in multiple myeloma

It is well established that interleukin-6 (IL-6) is an essential growth factor for multiple myeloma (MM) and patients with increased IL-6 levels have a poor prognosis. In healthy subjects, the presence of the C allele at a polymorphic site (-174 G/C) of the IL-6 gene is related to low IL-6 levels. In view of the potential association of this particular polymorphism with IL-6 concentration, and the relevance of IL-6 in MM pathogenesis, the objective of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of IL-6 (-174 G/C) promoter polymorphism and its association with development of MM in Brazilian individuals. We investigated the prevalence of these alleles in 52 patients and 60 healthy subjects (matched by age, sex, and race) of a Brazilian population. Thirty patients were male (42.4%), 24 (46.2%) were white and the median age at diagnosis was 58.5 years (range: 28 to 84 years). To determine the IL-6 (-174 G/C) polymorphism, molecular analysis was performed by polymerase chain reaction followed by endonuclease restriction digestion. The genotype distributions observed in the group of patients were 4% CC, 42% GC and 54% GG. The C allele frequency was 0.25. These results were similar to the control group, suggesting no impact of this polymorphism on the susceptibility to MM.

Multiple factor analysis of metachronous upper urinary tract transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urothelium is often multifocal and subsequent tumors may occur anywhere in the urinary tract after the treatment of a primary carcinoma. Patients initially presenting a bladder cancer are at significant risk of developing metachronous tumors in the upper urinary tract (UUT). We evaluated the prognostic factors of primary invasive bladder cancer that may predict a metachronous UUT TCC after radical cystectomy. The records of 476 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for primary invasive bladder TCC from 1989 to 2001 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic factors of UUT TCC were determined by multivariate analysis using the COX proportional hazards regression model. Kaplan-Meier analysis was also used to assess the variable incidence of UUT TCC according to different risk factors. Twenty-two patients (4.6%). developed metachronous UUT TCC. Multiplicity, prostatic urethral involvement by the bladder cancer and the associated carcinoma in situ (CIS) were significant and independent factors affecting the occurrence of metachronous UUT TCC (P = 0.0425, 0.0082, and 0.0006, respectively). These results were supported, to some extent, by analysis of the UUT TCC disease-free rate by the Kaplan-Meier method, whereby patients with prostatic urethral involvement or with associated CIS demonstrated a significantly lower metachronous UUT TCC disease-free rate than patients without prostatic urethral involvement or without associated CIS (log-rank test, P = 0.0116 and 0.0075, respectively). Multiple tumors, prostatic urethral involvement and associated CIS were risk factors for metachronous UUT TCC, a conclusion that may be useful for designing follow-up strategies for primary invasive bladder cancer after radical cystectomy.

Spectral and symbolic analysis of the effect of gender and postural change on cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly subjects

The objective of this study was to use linear and non-linear methods to investigate cardiac autonomic modulation in healthy elderly men and women in response to a postural change from the supine to the standing position. Fourteen men (66.1 ± 3.5 years) and 10 women (65.3 ± 3.3 years) were evaluated. Beat-to-beat heart rate was recorded in the supine and standing positions. Heart rate variability was studied by spectral analysis, including both low (LFnu-cardiac sympathetic modulation (CSM) indicator) and high (HFnu-cardiac vagal modulation (CVM) indicator) frequencies in normalized units as well as the low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio. Symbolic analysis was performed using the following indexes: 0V% (CSM indicator), 1V% (CSM and CVM indicators), 2LV% (predominantly CVM indicator) and 2ULV% (CVM indicator). Shannon entropy was also calculated. Men presented higher LFnu and LF/HF ratio and lower HFnu and 1V% symbolic index (57.56, 4.14, 40.53, 45.96, respectively) than women (24.60, 0.45, 72.47, 52.69, respectively) in the supine position. Shannon entropy was higher among men (3.53) than among women (3.33) in the standing position, and also increased according to postural change in men (3.25; 3.53). During postural change, the LFnu (24.60; 49.85) and LF/HF ratio (0.45; 1.72) increased, with a concomitant decrease in HFnu (72.47; 47.56) and 2LV% (14.10; 6.95) in women. Women presented increased CSM in response to postural change and had higher CVM and lower CSM than men in the supine position. In conclusion, women in the age range studied presented a more appropriate response to a postural change than men, suggesting that cardiac autonomic modulation may be better preserved in women than in men.