Contractive metrics for a Boltzmann equation for granular gases: diffusive equilibriaThe Patterson-Sullivan embedding and minimal volume entropy for outer space

We quantify the long-time behavior of a system of (partially) inelastic particles in a stochastic thermostat by means of the contractivity of a suitable metric in the set of probability measures. Existence, uniqueness, boundedness of moments and regularity of a steady state are derived from this basic property. The solutions of the kinetic model are proved to converge exponentially as t→ ∞ to this diffusive equilibrium in this distance metrizing the weak convergence of measures. Then, we prove a uniform bound in time on Sobolev norms of the solution, provided the initial data has a finite norm in the corresponding Sobolev space. These results are then combined, using interpolation inequalities, to obtain exponential convergence to the diffusive equilibrium in the strong L¹-norm, as well as various Sobolev norms.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

Hausman tests for inefficient estimators: application to demand for health care service (revised)

The Hausman (1978) test is based on the vector of differences of two estimators. It is usually assumed that one of the estimators is fully efficient, since this simplifies calculation of the test statistic. However, this assumption limits the applicability of the test, since widely used estimators such as the generalized method of moments (GMM) or quasi maximum likelihood (QML) are often not fully efficient. This paper shows that the test may easily be implemented, using well-known methods, when neither estimator is efficient. To illustrate, we present both simulation results as well as empirical results for utilization of health care services.

Asymmetries in the capacity-inflation trade-off

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

La Variació de les etapes evolutives i l'adquisició dels aprenentatges aquàtics en una experiència motriu en la primera infància

My work seeks, to observe if there is some variation at some evolutionary stage starting from the knowledge obtained starting from the study of learning and development motor, with reference to a controlled group. My research details the types of aquatic abilities that take place as a consequence of a specific program. My investigation uses a quantitative methodology that compares the moments of appearance of different evolutionary stages in a first phase and a qualitative methodology for the second phase that makes those learnings thake place as a consequence of my intervention. To elaborate this process I have used an inductive and deductive method, I have based my reserach on fifteen years, of experience of these practices and used the data that has been provided to me from other's author's investigations.

Les Actituds del professorat de l'ESO vers les pràctiques inclusives: un estudi longitudinal

En aquest treball s’exposa l’estudi realitzat en un centre educatiu ordinari d’Educació Secundària Obligatòria. En aquest centre, el curs acadèmic 2002-2003 s’hi implanten dues unitats d’educació especial amb la finalitat d’aconseguir una escolarització amb un caràcter més normalitzat per als alumnes que les integren. Fruit d’aquesta implantació se’ns ofereix l’oportunitat de realitzar un estudi al voltant del funcionament d’aquest procés. Degut a la importància que tenen en els processos d’aquesta índole, entre d’altres motius, decidim decantar-nos per l’estudi de les actituds del professorat vers les pràctiques inclusives. Així doncs en aquest treball s’hi recullen quines són les actituds dels professorat d’aquest IES, en dos moments diferents al llarg del temps, al voltant de diferents aspectes relacionats amb les pràctiques inclusives, l’instrument dissenyat per a recollir aquestes actituds, així com també les pràctiques amb caràcter inclusiu que s’han dut a terme en aquest IES.

Infinite time aggregation for the critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model in R2

We analyze the two-dimensional parabolic-elliptic Patlak-Keller-Segel model in the whole Euclidean space R2. Under the hypotheses of integrable initial data with finite second moment and entropy, we first show local in time existence for any mass of "free-energy solutions", namely weak solutions with some free energy estimates. We also prove that the solution exists as long as the entropy is controlled from above. The main result of the paper is to show the global existence of free-energy solutions with initial data as before for the critical mass 8 Π/Χ. Actually, we prove that solutions blow-up as a delta dirac at the center of mass when t→∞ keeping constant their second moment at any time. Furthermore, all moments larger than 2 blow-up as t→∞ if initially bounded.

CBUC 1995-2004 : deu anys d'activitat i de presència pública

Selecció d'articles, ponències i presentacions il·lustratives dels deu anys d'història del Consorci i dels seus projectes i activitats.

Desenvolupament de mesures per comparar transculturalment xarxes personals (USA i Estats Units)

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat de Florida durant Abril i Maig de 2006. “Application to Immigrant Populations in South Florida and Northeastern Spain" ha permès recollir les xarxes personals d’immigrants en els dos països mitjançant un qüestionari implementat amb un software desenvolupat ex professo per recollir i presentar visualment les dades. Es van revisar i assemblar les entrevistes i qüestionaris realitzats a Catalunya i a Estats Units (Miami i Nova York, especialment). Fins al moment s’han revisat i analitzat uns 450 casos. Un cop depurada i analitzada la informació obtinguda s’ha pogut disposar per primer cop de mesures globals pels diferents col•lectius estudiats. L'objectiu global del projecte és entendre les implicacions que les estructures de les xarxes personals tenen en relació a un conjunt de conductes (de salut, d'ús de la llengua, etx) i les autoconcepcions. En aquest sentit era necessari desenvolupar un seguit de mesures que permetessin comparar i documentar la variació de les estructures de les xarxes personals a diferents cultures, nivells socioeconòmics, gènere, religió, etc. i incorporar-les com a variables independents als models explicatius.En aquest moments s’està desenvolupant un índex basat en variables estructurals (número de components de la xarxa, densitat, grau d’intermediació, etc.) i variables de composició (proporció de persones diferents del país d’origen, entre d'altres). La idea és disposar d’un índex d’heterogeneïtat de la xarxa social comparable entre els diferents col•lectius. Malgrat que el treball continua, la principal conclusió a la que s’ha arribat és que al menys a Espanya a mida que passa el temps augmenta el nivell d’heterogeneïtat de les xarxes personals. És a dir, que desprès d’un ràpid procés de canvi i una fase de transnacionalitat la tendència és a reduir aquest nivell (pels costos socials i econòmics que comporta) depenent, naturalment, de factors com l’origen temporal (primera onada o successives), el tipus de col•lectiu i el sexe.

Cosa: arqueologia de un enclave comercial mediterráneo. Campaña de 2006

En el marco del proyecto “La ciutat romana de Cosa: arqueologia d’un enclau comercial mediterrani” , autorizado y apoyado por la Soprintendenza Archeologica por la Toscana, entre los dias 4 y 22 de septiembre de 2006 se ha realizado la segunda campaña de intervenciones arqueológicas en la ciudad romana de Cosa (Ansedonia, prov. Grosseto, Itàlia), colonia latina fundada en el 273 aC a unos 120 km. al norte de Roma. De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos en la campanya del 2005 (localización/verificación de los límites precisos de la ínsula O-P/4-5 mediante la aplicación de técnicas de prospección geofísica completadas con la limpieza, registro y documentación arqueológica de las estructuras localizadas ) los trabajos del 2006 se han orientado hacia la identificación de la organización interna de la dicha ínsula tomando como referente el criptopórtico situado en el extremo N.E., el cual parece constituir el límite de una estructura singular (privada o pública ) estratégicamente ubicada en relación al fórum i a la Via Sacra. El trabajo de campo ha consistido en un intenso decapage con la finalidad de delimitar unidades de habitación complejas funcionalmente definidas y así la articulación existente entre ellas; en este sentido se ha podido documentar evidencias del espacio porticado superpuesto al criptopórtico así como, paralelamente a la calle 5 y en dirección a la Via Sacra, parte de habitaciones algunas de las cuales conservaban restos del pavimiento original, en un caso de mosaico. Paralelamente, se ha realizado el análisis en laboratorio de los materiales recuperados los cuales, aún procediendo de nivel superficial, empiezan a proporcionar datos sobre los diferentes momentos de ocupación de la zona, básicamente tardorepublicanos y augustales.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

La narratividad en los "Telenotícies" de TV3

La narració és l’única estructura a través de la qual el periodista pot dialogar amb la societat. Segons alguns autors, la narrativitat es una estructura transcendental de l’experiència i l’acció humana. Això vol dir que no es possible actuar o fer experiència sense atendre aquesta dimensió de l’home. En periodisme això té algunes implicacions. Només respectant aquesta estructura en el missatge, el receptor podrà descobrir el significat que aquest aporta a la seva vida. A través de la visió del filòsof Charles Taylor i la seva reflexió sobre la modernitat esbrinarem en quins moments els noticiaris es deixen emportar pel pitjor de la cultura moderna, en quins aspectes s’equivoquen els periodistes i de quina manera això perjudica a la societat en general.

Quantitative and qualitative research on brief systemic therapies carried out within the framework of an ambulatory consultation for couples and families

Abstract: This article presents both a brief systemic intervention method (IBS) consisting in 6 sessions developed in an ambulatory service for couples and families, and two research projects done in collaboration with the Institute for Psychotherapy of the University of Lausanne. The first project is quantitative and it aims at evaluating the effectiveness of ISB. One of its main feature is that outcomes are assessed at different levels of individual and family functioning: 1) symptoms and individual functioning; 2) quality of marital relationship; 3) parental and co-parental relationships; 4) familial relationships. The second project is a qualitative case study about a marital therapy which identifies and analyses significant moments of the therapeutic process from the patients' perspective. Methodology was largely inspired by Daniel Stem's work about "moments of meeting" in psychotherapy. Results show that patients' theories about relationship and change are important elements that deepen our understanding of the change process in couple and family therapy. The interest of associating clinicians and researchers for the development and validation of a new clinical model is discussed.

Economic effects of road accessibility in the Pyrenees: user perspective

At present, Spain faces one of the key moments in planning the future design of the infrastructure network. As a consequence of the critical role played by haulage in intra-European trade, the most important investments are those that guarantee that road haulage traffic can move freely at the borders. That is why it is necessary to make serious evaluations of the economic and social profitability of these investments. Normally the most significant social benefit of investment projects in transport infrastructure is time saving, which in turn changes traffic intensity. In this article we analyse the changes in the user excess caused by public investment in transport infrastructure planned by the Spanish government and which will be located on the border between Spain and France. In particular, we study the increase in network user surplus for HGV traffic in the Spanish and French border zones in the Pyrenees.